Who wins Giro 2014?

[SafeBet]

Cadel's vote have been on the rise lately, and rightfully so. I don't believe he can win it but maybe fight for a podium spot.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Why then did he lose a minute on Purito in the Chorges TT, and finished only one second in front of him in the other flat TT?

the flat itt in the tour quintana jas a very bad day. just look at all his other itt results when riding for gc he did very well. most recently in tirreno and san luis itt that were just 2 straight roads and flat

 

[Escarabajo]

Why then did he lose a minute on Purito in the Chorges TT, and finished only one second in front of him in the other flat TT?

The both sucked in the flat TT. What do you expect from a power type course against the wind. They both are very light.

In the other one both did OK I guess.

What's the question again???

 

[whittashau]

It'll be interesting to see who'll be the best Astana rider at the Giro now that Landa is seemingly in the best form for them. It'll probably be Scarponi, but It'll be intriguing nonetheless.

 

[dlwssonic]

Even after the trentino performance, how on earth is cadel supposed to win this. He is 37 and with all the mountains stacked in the third week no way.....

 

[Arredondo]

The both sucked in the flat TT. What do you expect from a power type course against the wind. They both are very light.

In the other one both did OK I guess.

What's the question again???

Ryo said Quintana would easily get 1/2 minutes on Purito in that Giro TT.

Well, i haven't see that in the Tour TT's last year.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

It'll be interesting to see who'll be the best Astana rider at the Giro now that Landa is seemingly in the best form for them. It'll probably be Scarponi, but It'll be intriguing nonetheless.

Aru arrived straight from altitude and has barely raced this season, Landa coming into the race in great shape from Basque, and Scarponi has been riding steadily throughout the season, so Aru is the one that can improve the most, while Landa is not far from top shape and Scarponi, well he is Scarponi and will top 10 nonetheless

 

[Cookster15]

Even after the trentino performance, how on earth is cadel supposed to win this. He is 37 and with all the mountains stacked in the third week no way.....

I think Podium is a genuine possibility if Evans has not peaked too early, does not blow himself up chasing Quintana in the mountains and has a decent TT. But to win is too much to expect.

Cadel is in much better form than last year at the same time. Also, just keep reminding yourself Chris Horner won the Vuelta at nearly 42 years of age. Plus all the high mountains in 2011 TDF were between stages 12 and 19 so who knows. Plus Evans has had a low key build up this season a bit like Horner last year too. Horner fans were saying that was a legitimate reason for his win at such an age - that and the Vuelta field was weak or a bit tired from earlier in season ie, Nibali. Other than Quintana I think the Giro field is not that strong. Hesjedal did beat JRod in the 2012 Giro after all.

 

[Afrank]

I think Podium is a genuine possibility if Evans has not peaked too early, does not blow himself up chasing Quintana in the mountains and has a decent TT. But to win is too much to expect.

Cadel is in much better form than last year at the same time. Also, just keep reminding yourself Chris Horner won the Vuelta at nearly 42 years of age. Plus all the high mountains in 2011 TDF were between stages 12 and 19 so who knows. Plus Evans has had a low key build up this season a bit like Horner last year too. Horner fans were saying that was a legitimate reason for his win at such an age - that and the Vuelta field was weak or a bit tired from earlier in season ie, Nibali. Other than Quintana I think the Giro field is not that strong. Hesjedal did beat JRod in the 2012 Giro after all.

His build up hasn't been that low key, and not that much like Horners.

Before the Vuelta Horner raced TA (6th on GC) early then later the Tour of Utah (2nd) before heading to Spain.

Evans so far this season has raced Tour Down Under (2nd on GC), Haut Var (5th), Strada Bianche (7th), TA (DNS on stage 7), Pais Vasco (7th), and Trentino (1st). That's much more racing then Horner prior to his Vuelta win.

Edit: 14 race days vs. 28.

 

[Cookster15]

His build up hasn't been that low key, and not that much like Horners.

Before the Vuelta Horner raced TA (6th on GC) early then later the Tour of Utah (2nd) before heading to Spain.

Evans so far this season has raced Tour Down Under (2nd on GC), Haut Var (5th), Strada Bianche (7th), TA (DNS on stage 7), Pais Vasco (7th), and Trentino (1st). That's much more racing then Horner prior to his Vuelta win.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks.

 

[Escarabajo]

Ryo said Quintana would easily get 1/2 minutes on Purito in that Giro TT.

Well, i haven't see that in the Tour TT's last year.

OK.

Maybe not against Purito. There is still a possibility but is not a given.

 

[Ferminal]

His build up hasn't been that low key, and not that much like Horners.

Before the Vuelta Horner raced TA (6th on GC) early then later the Tour of Utah (2nd) before heading to Spain.

Evans so far this season has raced Tour Down Under (2nd on GC), Haut Var (5th), Strada Bianche (7th), TA (DNS on stage 7), Pais Vasco (7th), and Trentino (1st). That's much more racing then Horner prior to his Vuelta win.

Edit: 14 race days vs. 28.

And..? The difference between racing and training is minimal, if anything they train harder.

(As the likes of Horner and Contador in the Vuelta showed, "race fitness" is BS and can be replicated in training. Wiggins and Froome also show that you can go as hard as you like in races without compromising the main goal)

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Ryo said Quintana would easily get 1/2 minutes on Purito in that Giro TT.

Well, i haven't see that in the Tour TT's last year.

because there was terrible wind, and quintana is 51 kg in topform. of course he will suffer. unless the giro itt is full of wind quintana will blow people away

 

[Ferminal]

If Basso is invisible in Romandie then I think his victory is all but assured.

 

[theyoungest]

quintana is a natural itt rider with great position. purito is horrible and is altered so much as to force him into something itt-like. they couldn't be more dissimilar in itt strenghts and weaknesses. purito is explosive and technical. quintana needs long straight roads to get his diesel going.

Yeah sure, Quintana is a natural TTist... it's funny how you spot the obvious fanboy in everybody but yourself.

The only course where Quintana can do well is a hilly one, not because he's a great TTist but because he's a great climber. Same goes for Purito, who has a better track record in TTs actually. Doesn't matter if the roads are straight, but if they are flat.

 

[Rollthedice]

I think Podium is a genuine possibility if Evans has not peaked too early, does not blow himself up chasing Quintana in the mountains and has a decent TT. But to win is too much to expect.

Cadel is in much better form than last year at the same time. Also, just keep reminding yourself Chris Horner won the Vuelta at nearly 42 years of age. Plus all the high mountains in 2011 TDF were between stages 12 and 19 so who knows. Plus Evans has had a low key build up this season a bit like Horner last year too. Horner fans were saying that was a legitimate reason for his win at such an age - that and the Vuelta field was weak or a bit tired from earlier in season ie, Nibali. Other than Quintana I think the Giro field is not that strong. Hesjedal did beat JRod in the 2012 Giro after all.

Cadel is a junior compared to Horner if we talk age. Horner won the Vuelta because he wasn't taken seriously (can't blame them) until it was too late and he never had a single "slightly worse" day. Plus there's things about Horner that cannot be discussed here. So, a comparison between Horner 2013 and Cadel 2014 is not relevant, I think.
Agree, Cadel is in contention for podium but it is impossible for him to challenge Quintana and JRod.

 

[SafeBet]

Horner won the Vuelta because he wasn't taken seriously (can't blame them) until it was too late and he never had a single "slightly worse" day.

Horner won the Vuelta cause he was the best rider overall, as Angliru stage clearly proves.

 

[Cookster15]

Horner won the Vuelta cause he was the best rider overall, as Angliru stage clearly proves.

Which was the half the point I was originally trying to make - that Horner is much older than Evans so not sure why people think Evans age should automatically count him out as a contender for this years Giro.

The other half of my point was Horner's lighter 2013 season was the explanation people gave for his performance at such an old age and compared with Nibali who had already done the Giro. But now I'm not sure just how light Evans season has been - as pointed out by several. It is difficult to judge as we don't know what training they do nor how hard they are pushing in races. But I think Cadel would know this and will have adjusted his training and racing schedule to suit. He is considered a person with attention to details.

In any case, after his Trentino performance I now think the virus thing is the more logical explanation for Evans 2012 and 2013 - not so much advancing years catching up with him like it did with Carlos Sastra. For the Giro I am hopeful we will see Evans at 2011 level again - at least one more time. That should be at least enough for 3rd step on the podium looking at the field.

 

[Cookster15]

I think Evans should be 2nd favourite now after Purito's bad luck.

 

[trevim]

I guess I'm rooting for Majka and Purito. Quintana right after those two because he's simply awesome.

 

[the sceptic]

If Basso is invisible in Romandie then I think his victory is all but assured.

Good. I was about to give up hoping..

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

so... Purito races semi- injured?
This seems to be a almost to easy win for the greatest climber in the world
This could get boring after the first mtf












I mean Aru will take minutes out of everyone now

 

[icefire]

Horner won the Vuelta cause he was the best rider overall, as Angliru stage clearly proves.

Horner was given almost a 1 minute gift when he attacked in the stage he won in Hazallana and the rest of the contenders were watching each other.

 

[hrotha]

Horner is a statistical aberration.

 

[howardyou]

Considering Pozzovivo looked pretty good in LBL, what does that say about Evans current form?