I was surprised it took Cadel that long to figure out that if he wanted the Tour that bad, a Belgian team with overriding obligations to the sponsor to perform in front of a demanding domestic crowd was not the ideal team for him.
It was a good stepping stone, but you need to keep walking on steps if you want to reach the top at some point.
And you usually walk up, not sideways. BMC came out of a blue sky, to me. It can only mean, in my mind, that he hadn't examined all options to the full. It sounded like a man so convinced that what was really keeping him back was team support, and was so blinded by this idea, that he picked the first opportunity to a team that was gonna be wholly "for him" and promised something half-decent.
It sounded a bit plan-B-ish.
I'm not buying this whole 3-year plan thing. I don't think Cadel has three years. The field is changing, folk he is up against are only getting better, not weaker. He is staring the Fall years of his career in the face. This year is his last real shot at a GT, for me. There are more new names coming through who will want to make their mark, and not enough GTs to go around.
And this year, I am more and more convinced he could have (and can) grabbed one, since he is riding like he has found new fire. But BMC was always gonna make that a smaller chance than he could have had if he'd really pressed for the best team he could have had.
I don't think he did, and I think he didn't, because he is Cadel. I can't figure out if it is fear of failure, buckling under pressure, lack of confidence, too gentle a soul (off the bike), or whatever, but he shuns asserting himself as the one to beat and deal with. I think to Cadel BMC without internal pressure and competition would indeed sound like the more attractive option, over facing internal competition in a stronger team.
And to me, I fear that's where he loses GTs, or at least makes it so much harder for himself.
I can't see him thrive in a team like Liquigas, which has several top dogs who need to settle their own pecking orders. And I can't see him cycle for a quality outfit like Caisse, as he just couldn't do that to ACF, being a Spanish team and all. I think the thought of being on Garmin, Katusha, whatever, would intimidate Cadel, for some reason. It shouldn't, and it is mere armchair speculation, but "serious unease" is the only way I can muster an explaination that gets me from seeing a quality rider like Cadel, in fresh rainbow colours, whose sole mission in life is a TdF win, to him picking a BMC jersey as the preferred option.
Someone said "but he needed to buy himself out and that financial burden would be prohibitive for other teams". I believe that if Cadel is so keen and financially secure as he is, that he would have bought himself out for the right deal, if he hasn't done so already. And a one year's Lottery salary is gonna be peanuts compared to the juicy financial grapes that a TdF win would harvest. And he certainly believes he can, and would have by now (if blah-blah hadn't blah-blah), doesn't he?
I think Cadel is stuck with something in his make-up that has kept him singing second fiddle for so long. I'm pleased to see that he has changed his style and tune recently, and I am still convinced that the Vuelta and increasingly louder criticism
finally got on his nerves enough to push him over the edge to start riding like a man who
really believes he can win.
I fear that BMC is the type of
over the edge that has only cliff face at the other end. It took a hell of a long time before Zoetemelk got the jersey that acknowledged the genuine quality of the rider, and he still needed a bit of rotten luck for Hinault to get it. I would hate to see Cadel end up without a similar accomplishment (and, on a weird parallel, I can't see it happen without something taking Contador out of the picture either). But I don't think he made his own life (much) easier this year.
If he wins the Giro, or Tour, this year, he would have won it in a Lotto tricot too. It would only prove that he has had let his situation get to him, more than it should. Contador faced much worse last year than Cadel has ever been near too. See how he came out of it, and where he is now (again making a situation that was far from ideal in September, October even, taking a totally different turn). Contador has a mind set that
makes that happen. Cadel seems less able to do direct focus energy that way. The thing that holds Cadel back. more often than not, is Cadel. In my mind.
Making a move from Lotto. Yeah. To BMC.