Wigans goes there. Cadence!

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Given a twenty minute figure, a one hour figure can be calculated using standard tables, i.e. 20 minute effort can be ridden at X% of FTP.

FTP is typically 89-94% of 20-min mean maximal power, but can be anywhere from 88-96% depending on the rider.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

FTP is typically 89-94% of 20-min mean maximal power, but can be anywhere from 88-96% depending on the rider.

But that would typically be a fresh 20 minute current training / form PB, not a 20 minute value banged out a week into a GT after already going pretty hard for 50 minutes, possibly under beginning cold / chest infection conditions.

My guesstimate of ~95% FTP would be pretty safe.

 

[BroDeal]

But that would typically be a fresh 20 minute current training / form PB, not a 20 minute value banged out a week into a GT after already going pretty hard for 50 minutes, possibly under beginning cold / chest infection conditions.

My guesstimate of ~95% FTP would be pretty safe.

Maybe a better way to look at it is using 95% should produce a maximum figure with the actual figure likely to be a somewhat lower.

You could use the percentages Alex provided to produce a range of FTPs, which would be 424 - 453 W, or 6.15 - 6.56 W/kg, using 89-95%. As you wrote, this would be an "un-fresh" figure.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

But that would typically be a fresh 20 minute current training / form PB, not a 20 minute value banged out a week into a GT after already going pretty hard for 50 minutes, possibly under beginning cold / chest infection conditions.

My guesstimate of ~95% FTP would be pretty safe.

Not sure that makes sense to me. Surely the more tired you are the smaller the percentage to be applied should be? Using 0.88-0.96 gives you a potential range. Given the smallest i.e. 0.88 => ~6.08. Is that still within a tolerable range (I have no idea btw)?

 

[Ferminal]

FTP usually talked about in effort from a relatively rested state. So FTP will actually be closer to a 20min tired effort than a 20min fresh effort. If you've just done an hour at 90% you'd expect the next 20mins to be significantly harder than 20mins after an hour @ 50%.

But as I said before there's no real way of knowing the extent to which he was full gas in the early section.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

But that would typically be a fresh 20 minute current training / form PB, not a 20 minute value banged out a week into a GT after already going pretty hard for 50 minutes, possibly under beginning cold / chest infection conditions.

My guesstimate of ~95% FTP would be pretty safe.

While it's not implausible, I don't share your confidence in the 95% figure.

One week into a GT, it's also not implausible a GT rider's form improves, not declines.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

While it's not implausible, I don't share your confidence in the 95% figure.

One week into a GT, it's also not implausible a GT rider's form improves, not declines.

Definitely, form can improve, but his TT was longer than 20 minutes, in a GT he wanted to win. That first 50 minutes wasn't dawdling...

3 days later - including a rest day - he can't keep up. So his illness would have been pretty close to the TT.

 

[Digger]

The figures i got are from the sunday times article by walsh yesterday.
After fifty minutes intense effort in the TT (obviously intense), Wiggins put out average 477 watts for the final 20 mins. His weight last year in the tour was 69kg...even if we put him at 75kg, it's still ridiculous.
So either Sky are telling lies to Walsh, or...........

If he did twenty mins in the lab at this ok fair enough, but after fifty mins and a week in the Giro.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

The figures i got are from the sunday times article by walsh yesterday.
After fifty minutes intense effort in the TT (obviously intense), Wiggins put out average 477 watts for the final 20 mins. His weight last year in the tour was 69kg...even if we put him at 75kg, it's still ridiculous.
So either Sky are telling lies to Walsh, or...........

If he did twenty mins in the lab at this ok fair enough, but after fifty mins and a week in the Giro.

Wigan took 1 minute 30 to 1 minute 45 in the 18K relative flat section on the in the form of his life Nibali. If you compare that to last years first TT in the Tour that is huge.

1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:51:24
8 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:02:07

Compare that to this Giro's TT:

When u compare it to last years second Tour TT it is even enormous.

1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 1:04:13
16 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:38

Wigan takes 3 minutes 38 on 53K and this year 1 minute 45 on 18K, and, do note, Nibali had some sort of injury back then.

Fair to say that if Wigan didnt have his mental thing he would have put the rest of the field on minutes.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Definitely, form can improve, but his TT was longer than 20 minutes, in a GT he wanted to win. That first 50 minutes wasn't dawdling...

3 days later - including a rest day - he can't keep up. So his illness would have been pretty close to the TT.

A significant part of the first half was technical, and less suited Wiggin's style, meaning his effort level was not au bloc, and just perhaps he also paced himself a little better than others, allowing himself to go all out for the finale and over sections of the course he was better suited to make up time on.

I've done hard races much longer than an hour and achieved 20-min power PB in the latter stages, and I'm sure I'm not alone in having done that.

Also, it's not unusual for illness to follow PB power performances. Sometimes you walk the edge of that immunity cliff.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

I've done hard races much longer than an hour and achieved 20-min power PB in the latter stages, and I'm sure I'm not alone in having done that.

It wasn't a race - it was a TT.

 

[Krebs cycle]

The figures i got are from the sunday times article by walsh yesterday.
After fifty minutes intense effort in the TT (obviously intense), Wiggins put out average 477 watts for the final 20 mins. His weight last year in the tour was 69kg...even if we put him at 75kg, it's still ridiculous.
So either Sky are telling lies to Walsh, or...........

If he did twenty mins in the lab at this ok fair enough, but after fifty mins and a week in the Giro.

David Walsh has written two articles in the Sunday Times in the last 2 weeks and neither of them mentions 477W in the final 20min so where exactly does this figure come from?

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1261492.ece

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1258273.ece

 

[M Sport]

David Walsh has written two articles in the Sunday Times in the last 2 weeks and neither of them mentions 477W in the final 20min so where exactly does this figure come from?

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1261492.ece

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1258273.ece

Plus this one http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1261502.ece which mentions 477 watts. I can't quote though I don't have access here.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Plus this one http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1261502.ece which mentions 477 watts. I can't quote though I don't have access here.

Thanks M Sport. People with no skin in the game appear to remain quite relaxed about things.

 

[Ferminal]

The suffering began on the road to Saltara eight days ago when Wiggins realised he had lost time through the first half of that day’s 54-kilometre time trial. Sure, he’d hit a hole in the road, got a slow puncture he mistook for mechanical trouble and after changing bikes, the new one felt different and he lost more time. At the halfway check he was sixth, which is no place for him to be in a time trial. Driven by fear, he produced one of the performances of his career. Through the last 15 kilometres, his average power output was 477 watts, just four watts slower than his best ever 20-minute effort. This was 20 minutes on top of 50 minutes of intense effort.

“What I did in the second half of that time trial was better than the ride that won the Olympic gold medal in London,” he says. “I was in very good shape.” That effort moved him up to second place in the time trial, fourth overall and within a minute and a half of new race leader Vincenzo Nibali. But that effort also took its toll. That evening Wiggins complained of feeling like he had a cold coming on. The medical team weren’t surprised for Wiggins sat alongside Christian Knees on the bus and the German was down with a bug.

Weird, he looked sick pretty much since the TTT. Kinda stupid riding if he was not at the front on the Abruzzo hills just because he cbf.

 

[Krebs cycle]

Plus this one http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/sport/cycling/article1261502.ece which mentions 477 watts. I can't quote though I don't have access here.

Thanks.

Certainly incredible numbers, and you'd expect Wiggins to climb a lot better than he does with sustained w/kg in that range. Not sure if I believe them though. I'm pretty certain that Sky play mind games with the press, but hey everyone around here seems to lap it up so I guess it must be real.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Thanks.

Certainly incredible numbers, and you'd expect Wiggins to climb a lot better than he does with sustained w/kg in that range. Not sure if I believe them though. I'm pretty certain that Sky play mind games with the press, but hey everyone around here seems to lap it up so I guess it must be real.

Sometimes you back them to the hilt and sometimes you don't believe them. Cool.

 

[Ferminal]

Didn't he already do 470 W or something in 2009 according to JV1973?

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Didn't he already do 470 W or something in 2009 according to JV1973?

He did ~480W for 18 minutes in a 10 mile TT a couple of times now.

Marginal gains just mean he can do a 50 minute TT beforehand first.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

The medical team weren’t surprised for Wiggins sat alongside Christian Knees on the bus and the German was down with a bug.

Pretty amazing, how about that for a medical team, I see a knew hiring in the future of team Sky, a doc who specialises in colds/bugs.
What is Allen Lim up to these days? Maybe Tarsi knows something for them?

 

[euanli]

The only comparison that can be made is that Dowsett averaged 375 or 378W (Dan Lloyd's originally quoted figure vs Alex Dowsett's own) for the 52km.

Would be interesting to know the normalised figure.

I personally think there is a lot of smoke and mirrors in the Walsh articles. Wiggins was ill before the TT, I would have expected him to put at least a minute into Dowsett if he was anywhere near the form of last year/capable of 470W for 20 minutes.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Sometimes you back them to the hilt and sometimes you don't believe them. Cool.

Both versions seek to perpetuate a single message though - he's either clean and doing human performances or he's lying about what power he did (and hence was in reality just doing a human performance).

 

[heart_attack_man]

Originally Posted by David Walsh article
The medical team weren’t surprised for Wiggins sat alongside Christian Knees on the bus and the German was down with a bug.

Didn't they wash their hands this year?

 

[zalacain]

Does it matter if you're using the same bedding every day?

 

[thehog]

Didn't they wash their hands this year?

No one wants to sit next to the German.

It was a good idea.

"Ok, who here is sick? Knees? Wiggo go sit real close to Christian."