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Tyler'sTwin

Mar 4, 2010
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Former FBI-translator and founder of the National Security Whistleblowers Coalition, Sibel Edmonds:

Col. Riad al-Assad has been in Turkey, working with U.S. & NATO, right inside the US Incirlik Base in Turkey, to do exactly what he vehemently denies: smuggle weapons into Syria and help with funneling intelligence and military operators across the border and night-time drop offs by air.

The joint US-NATO secret training camp in the US air force base in Incirlik, Turkey, began operations in April- May 2011 to organize and expand the dissident base in Syria. Since then, in addition to Col. Riad al-Assad, several other high-ranking Syrian military and intelligence officials have been added to operations’ headquarters in the US base. Weekly weapons smuggling operations have been carried out with full NATO-US participation since last May. The HQ also includes an information warfare division where US-NATO crafted communications are directed to dissidents in Syria via the core group of Syrian military and Intelligence defectors.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hTQuHUTerI

CNN:

Speculation on Capitol Hill has included the possibility the U.S. agencies operating in Benghazi were secretly helping to move surface-to-air missiles out of Libya, through Turkey, and into the hands of Syrian rebels.
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http://thelead.blogs.cnn.com/2013/0...ratives-on-the-ground-during-benghazi-attack/

The United States and some European allies are using defense contractors to train Syrian rebels on how to secure chemical weapons stockpiles in Syria, a senior U.S. official and several senior diplomats told CNN Sunday.

The training, which is taking place in Jordan and Turkey, involves how to monitor and secure stockpiles and handle weapons sites and materials, according to the sources. Some of the contractors are on the ground in Syria working with the rebels to monitor some of the sites, according to one of the officials.
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http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/...s-training-syrian-rebels-in-chemical-weapons/
 
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Tyler'sTwin

Mar 4, 2010
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Leaked emails from the private intelligence firm Stratfor including notes from a meeting with Pentagon officials confirmed US-UK training of Syrian opposition forces since 2011 aimed at eliciting "collapse" of Assad's regime "from within."

On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
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I spent most of the afternoon at the Pentagon with the USAF strategic
studies group - guys who spend their time trying to understand and explain
to the USAF chief the big picture in areas where they're operating in. It
was just myself and four other guys at the Lieutenant Colonel level,
including one French and one British representative who are liaising with
the US currently out of DC.

They wanted to grill me on the strategic picture on Syria, so after that I
got to grill them on the military picture. There is still a very low level
of understanding of what is actually at stake in Syria, what's the
strategic interest there, the Turkish role, the Iranian role, etc. After a
couple hours of talking, they said without saying that SOF teams
(presumably from US, UK, France, Jordan, Turkey) are already on the ground
focused on recce missions and training opposition forces. One Air Force
intel guy (US) said very carefully that there isn't much of a Free Syrian
Army to train right now anyway, but all the operations being done now are
being done out of 'prudence.' The way it was put to me was, 'look at this
way - the level of information known on Syrian OrBat this month is the
best it's been since 2001.' They have been told to prepare contingencies
and be ready to act within 2-3 months, but they still stress that this is
all being done as contingency planning, not as a move toward escalation.

I kept pressing on the question of what these SOF teams would be working
toward, and whether this would lead to an eventual air camapign to give a
Syrian rebel group cover. They pretty quickly distanced themselves from
that idea, saying that the idea 'hypothetically' is to commit guerrilla
attacks, assassination campaigns, try to break the back of the Alawite
forces, elicit collapse from within. There wouldn't be a need for air
cover, and they wouldn't expect these Syrian rebels to be marching in
columns anyway.

They emphasized how the air campaign in Syria makes Libya look like a
piece of cake. Syrian air defenses are a lot more robust and are much
denser, esp around Damascus and on the borders with Israel, Turkey. THey
are most worried about mobile air defenses, particularly the SA-17s that
they've been getting recently. It's still a doable mission, it's just not
an easy one.
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https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/docs/...ry-intervention-in-syria-post-withdrawal.html
 
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Tyler'sTwin

Mar 4, 2010
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Fantastic article by Seymour Hersh from 2007. A must read if you want to understand what's going on in the middle east right now.

Is the Administration’s new policy benefitting our enemies in the war on terrorism?

To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.
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The policy shift has brought Saudi Arabia and Israel into a new strategic embrace, largely because both countries see Iran as an existential threat. They have been involved in direct talks, and the Saudis, who believe that greater stability in Israel and Palestine will give Iran less leverage in the region, have become more involved in Arab-Israeli negotiations.

The new strategy “is a major shift in American policy—it’s a sea change,” a U.S. government consultant with close ties to Israel said. The Sunni states “were petrified of a Shiite resurgence, and there was growing resentment with our gambling on the moderate Shiites in Iraq,” he said. “We cannot reverse the Shiite gain in Iraq, but we can contain it.”

“It seems there has been a debate inside the government over what’s the biggest danger—Iran or Sunni radicals,” Vali Nasr, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has written widely on Shiites, Iran, and Iraq, told me. “The Saudis and some in the Administration have been arguing that the biggest threat is Iran and the Sunni radicals are the lesser enemies. This is a victory for the Saudi line.”

Martin Indyk, a senior State Department official in the Clinton Administration who also served as Ambassador to Israel, said that “the Middle East is heading into a serious Sunni-Shiite Cold War.”
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The Administration’s effort to diminish Iranian authority in the Middle East has relied heavily on Saudi Arabia and on Prince Bandar, the Saudi national-security adviser.
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Their [shiites] concentration in a volatile, oil-rich region has led to concern in the West and among Sunnis about the emergence of a “Shiite crescent”—especially given Iran’s increased geopolitical weight.
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In January, after an outburst of street violence in Beirut involving supporters of both the Siniora government and Hezbollah, Prince Bandar flew to Tehran to discuss the political impasse in Lebanon and to meet with Ali Larijani, the Iranians’ negotiator on nuclear issues. According to a Middle Eastern ambassador, Bandar’s mission—which the ambassador said was endorsed by the White House—also aimed “to create problems between the Iranians and Syria.” There had been tensions between the two countries about Syrian talks with Israel, and the Saudis’ goal was to encourage a breach. However, the ambassador said, “It did not work. Syria and Iran are not going to betray each other. Bandar’s approach is very unlikely to succeed.”
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http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all
 
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Tyler'sTwin

Mar 4, 2010
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Obvious proxy war is obvious.

Jumblatt then told me that he had met with Vice-President Cheney in Washington last fall to discuss, among other issues, the possibility of undermining Assad. He and his colleagues advised Cheney that, if the United States does try to move against Syria, members of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would be “the ones to talk to,” Jumblatt said.

“We told Cheney that the basic link between Iran and Lebanon is Syria—and to weaken Iran you need to open the door to effective Syrian opposition.”
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There is evidence that the Administration’s redirection strategy has already benefitted the Brotherhood. The Syrian National Salvation Front is a coalition of opposition groups whose principal members are a faction led by Abdul Halim Khaddam, a former Syrian Vice-President who defected in 2005, and the Brotherhood. A former high-ranking C.I.A. officer told me, “The Americans have provided both political and financial support. The Saudis are taking the lead with financial support, but there is American involvement.” He said that Khaddam, who now lives in Paris, was getting money from Saudi Arabia, with the knowledge of the White House. (In 2005, a delegation of the Front’s members met with officials from the National Security Council, according to press reports.) A former White House official told me that the Saudis had provided members of the Front with travel documents.
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Jumblatt said he understood that the issue was a sensitive one for the White House. “I told Cheney that some people in the Arab world, mainly the Egyptians”—whose moderate Sunni leadership has been fighting the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood for decades—“won’t like it if the United States helps the Brotherhood. But if you don’t take on Syria we will be face to face in Lebanon with Hezbollah in a long fight, and one we might not win.”
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http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all
 
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Tyler'sTwin

Mar 4, 2010
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Tyler'sTwin said:
I bet this explains the influx of foreign jihadists and the strength of the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Nusra in the syrian opposition.
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Ya think?

Fourth, the Saudi government, with Washington’s approval, would provide funds and logistical aid to weaken the government of President Bashir Assad, of Syria.
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Nasr compared the current situation to the period in which Al Qaeda first emerged. In the nineteen-eighties and the early nineties, the Saudi government offered to subsidize the covert American C.I.A. proxy war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Hundreds of young Saudis were sent into the border areas of ****stan, where they set up religious schools, training bases, and recruiting facilities. Then, as now, many of the operatives who were paid with Saudi money were Salafis. Among them, of course, were Osama bin Laden and his associates, who founded Al Qaeda, in 1988.

This time, the U.S. government consultant told me, Bandar and other Saudis have assured the White House that “they will keep a very close eye on the religious fundamentalists. Their message to us was ‘We’ve created this movement, and we can control it.’ It’s not that we don’t want the Salafis to throw bombs; it’s who they throw them at—Hezbollah, Moqtada al-Sadr, Iran, and at the Syrians, if they continue to work with Hezbollah and Iran.”
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http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh?currentPage=all
 
ToreBear

ToreBear

Aug 9, 2012
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Here is the French declassified intel report on the Syrian use of gas:

In French:
http://www.gouvernement.fr/sites/de...e_de_renseignement_declassifie_02_09_2013.pdf

google translated:
http://translate.google.com/transla...e_de_renseignement_declassifie_02_09_2013.pdf

In short they believe it was carried out by the government, and that the opposition does not have the capability to carry out such an attack.


And before anyone mentions weapons of Mass destruction in Iraq in 2003, the French did not believe this, and would have vetoed any SC resolution to condone an attack. That's why the US and UK did not return to the UN to get permission.

The French had ability to independently monitor this in 2003. The Germans did not have that in 2003, but I think they have it now, and I also think they will release their own report.

The Germans also did not take part in Iraq.
 
python

python

Sep 25, 2009
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ToreBear said:
...... and I also think they will release their own report.
....
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they did and i tend to take the german report more seriously than the french one whilst considering the american intel report a mere political assignment as they have done so many times for the purposes of domestic politics - the iraqi wmd in 2003 is just a drop in the america's dirty bucket.

still, the timing of the 3 major powers almost concurrently releasing their intel assessments on the syrian chem weapons use is very suspicious.

it is either a coordinated pr effort intended to woo the skeptical public of nato countries or a hasty job based on the essentially same sources that are easy to mystify and obscure by references to classified intelligence.

haven't we heard this story before, 'just trust us it is serious'

but as i said, i take the somewhat detached german word more seriously and willing to listen... if the facts are made public.
 
ToreBear

ToreBear

Aug 9, 2012
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python said:
they did and i tend to take the german report more seriously than the french one whilst considering the american intel report a mere political assignment as they have done so many times for the purposes of domestic politics - the iraqi wmd in 2003 is just a drop in the america's dirty bucket.

still, the timing of the 3 major powers almost concurrently releasing their intel assessments on the syrian chem weapons use is very suspicious.

it is either a coordinated pr effort intended to woo the skeptical public of nato countries or a hasty job based on the essentially same sources that are easy to mystify and obscure by references to classified intelligence.

haven't we heard this story before, 'just trust us it is serious'

but as i said, i take the somewhat detached german word more seriously and willing to listen... if the facts are made public.
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Have the Germans released their own report already?

As for the timing, I don't see anything suspicious. The attack happened on 21/08, they are all gathering info, and are releasing their info. It's in no ones interest for Assad to think using CW is cost free.

The Turks also believe gas was used. The only ones who don't believe it was used by the government is the Russians, and they have nailed their flag to Assads mast for the last two years anyway. I hope there can be a diplomatic push for the Russians to finally agree to something in the UNSC. Last week David Owen or someone(a Bosnia era diplomat IIRC), talked about perhaps getting the Russians to come up with the idea of removing the chemical weapons from Syria. If the Russians could agree to that it would be good.

I think you have to remember that no one wants to get involved in the Syria conflict. It's too complex, and no one is willing to put in the manpower needed to stop it/have a chance of stopping it.

As for the intelligence sources, the part with suspicious sourcing is the still classified communication within the Assad regime and within the chain of command. This might have emanated from Israel, but it could also be US based, with the Israelis trying to act more capable in the intelligence area than they really are.

However the other stuff is IMHO from individual countries intelligence services all coming to the same conclusion.
 
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Tyler'sTwin

Mar 4, 2010
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RetroActive

Jan 27, 2013
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python

python

Sep 25, 2009
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a german expert doubts

Searching for the truth in Syria

http://www.dw.de/searching-for-the-truth-in-syria/a-17066051

Former weapons inspector van Aken remained skeptical. He said there is not one real piece of evidence in Kerry's report: "That's the thinnest thing I've seen in a long time." He called it a collection of assumptions and assertions.
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Using the weapons isn't hugely complicatedly, according to the Left politician: "Those are artillery grenades, you put them in mortars and you fire them."
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R

RetroActive

Jan 27, 2013
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A Modest Proposal for Syria
http://warisacrime.org/content/modest-proposal-syria

Let me be clear, when we used White Phosphorus to burn holes straight through men, women, and countless children in Fallujah, the International Community approved. When we deployed new types of napalm despite the apparent lack of jungle foliage in Iraq, the International Community was satisfied. There is no more proper death than through depleted uranium, injestion of which brings a most glorious chemical demise. All of these avenues are available, and we should let a thousand flowers bloom in the Syrian streets.

But the ultimate solution is one which we have become the supreme masters of: cluster bombing. The United States stands nearly alone in the world as a proponent of the legal use of both land mines and flying land mines, also known as cluster bombs. These weapons are efficient and beautiful, creating a great variety of injuries as well as death. Most importantly, they will generate terror. Refugees will flee in all directions in such numbers that starvation and disease will wipe out huge swaths of the population.
 
Amsterhammer

Amsterhammer

Jun 22, 2009
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The Dutch intelligence services, after reviewing what they were shown by the US, have informed the government that they see no convincing or conclusive evidence to link the poison to Assad.
 
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del1962

Oct 16, 2012
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Bouthaina Shaaban, an adviser to Syria’s President Assad, told Sky News (as best I can determine) that Syrian rebels kidnapped hundreds of children from the regime stronghold of Latakia, transported them at least 340 kilometers (much of it through government-controlled territory and who knows how many military checkpoints) to rebel-controlled Damascus suburbs and there launched chemical weapons that killed them.
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Perhaps the Dutch Intelligence Service can explain why the rebels would do what Assads advisor claims?

latakia-to-damascus.jpg
 
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thrawn

May 2, 2010
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Alphabet said:
This is awful: http://www.zdnet.com/au/australian-...lement-internet-filter-by-default-7000020270/

And it has swung my vote. I was going to vote for the Liberal candidate for the House of Representatives, but in light of this, it will have to be Labor.
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Ridiculous. Releasing new policies two days before the election so people may not become aware before they vote. The same with releasing their costing. This is why I've found it hard to fathom why people would vote for the Liberals, despite the desire to kick Labor out.
 
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thrawn

May 2, 2010
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Oh and on the note of costings:

Despite all of their bluster about how much better they will be at managing the economy, the budget bottom line will be a grand total of $6billion dollars better over 4 years - http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/hockey-closes-campaign-with-a-joke-20130905-2t7ab.html.

The coalition won't submit 3 of their key policies for independent costing, so the $6 billion dollar claim could, and given the way they've handled everything, probably wrong. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...-for-independent-costings-20130905-2t6dm.html
 
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Ferminal

Jul 3, 2009
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It might not matter too much as the ALP may not be competent enough in opposition to hammer home the hypocrisy. It's also a big gamble (like the one the government made a couple of years ago) that the assumption that growth will magically be ~3.5% in two years time comes true. That this will probably not happen is not the fault of the government but "best practice" economic "forecasting". No one knows any better and it's all the government can go on, however, Swanny was made to look like a goose because of circumstances outside of anyone's control. The question is who can paint the Coalition the same way if/when the same thing happens to them.
 
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