Yep, I think Cadel can win it

[the big ring]

A terrific decender? there are a number of broken collar bones that disagree with you.
...

There's a few XC MTB titles and medals that disagree with you.

 

[sTTevie]

he had his chance in '08 ... he blew it ...

who says he's even invited this year (he probably will, but still) ...

 

[tjwracer]

There's a few XC MTB titles and medals that disagree with you.

My point exactly we all know that Cadel can out decend over haalf the guys in the peleton besides sammy sanchez but cadel is solid i dont care how many broken bones he has had

 

[tjwracer]

he had his chance in '08 ... he blew it ...

who says he's even invited this year (he probably will, but still) ...

uhm besides the fact that he is world Champion and they have the US champ also.

 

[Galic Ho]

Soler, as stated by others, has and only needs to find that form again. LLS, I'm just tipping a break out year.

auscyclefan, i know you want cadel to win, so what is his tactic to win, not come 2nd? I'll take an answer from anyone. Which stage does he attack, how far from the end, who are his allies?

I'll second LLS. Thought he would shine at the Tour in 2009. Might have a crack at the Vuelta? Not for the win, but top 10. He has the ability.

- His allies out of the gc guys are everyone not on the 3 big teams; Astana, Saxo and Radioshack. He could even use some of the fighting between these teams to his advantage.

- I personally think he may have to attack on top of stages where their is a descent to them, like the stage to St jean de maurienne for this year. Attack 5km from the top of the madeleine and then descend like a madman.. I think on the mountain top finishes he should have a hang on tatic. Cobbled stages will be very important and will most likely end the chances of a gc favourite.

-With the giro i think evans can climb with any of those guys including sastre and pellizotti. I think garzelli might be an outside bet for the giro this year as last year he had one bad day but for the rest of the giro he was climbing superbly.

The only thing in Cadel's favour is that in 2009 few attacked Contador. The semantics of what constitutes an attack can be argued on another occasion. In terms of who was willing to put their head in the wind and make a move, Evans and the Schleck's were the only ones. That is in Cadel's favour and why I believe he is stronger than all the other GC contenders apart from Andy. The rest held on and then attacked one another once they were dropped by the Schleck's and Contador.

Here is the problem. Aussiecyclefan94 mentions allies. This was also raised in 2009, before and during the Tour. Menchov, Sastre and Evans. Later Wiggins and Garmin joined the fray when the first two slip off GC. Won't happen. Saxo will go alone, or with Contador (who they will be aiming to beat first and foremost) and the rest will inevitably race one another. Yes the Shack might go to the front and bluff, but they no longer have a trump card. Bruyneel may see it fit to remove that race strategy for 2010. He no longer has the TTT to rest his laurels on and conserve energy for the Queen Stage.

My advice. Cadel should stick with Soler, LLS as they support Valverde, Anton and co as they support Samu, Vino and Perreiro as they support Contador and Saxo as they support the Schlecks. These are the teams fighting for the podium. Garmin, Liquigas, Shack and Sky riders are not going to podium against the others. Cadel can use their moves but he need not match them if they go early. They'll be pulled back or won't be GC threats. I don't think Menchov and Sastre will be at the Tour as GC threats right now. It will all come down to the form of the main players. Any of the main 8 or 9 teams may have riders make moves, but they will not all be decisive. For the top two places I suspect the big moves will be Contador, Schleck 1 and 2, Samu, Valverde and thus Evans must match them. Of course I may be wrong and Menchov and Sastre are unknowns right now, so to Cadel, due to program specifics. Cadel can match most of the moves and if he gets close in the final 5 clics, who knows, he may gain some time.

Again the cobbles will prove nothing. Anyone who looses their chances on the cobbles only do via an ill timed crash. They'll all be too alert to get caught unaware. At least the intelligent ones won't.

 

[sTTevie]

uhm besides the fact that he is world Champion and they have the US champ also.

I know, being a strong contender and world champion that should be convincing enough for ASO ... but don't treat it like a certain fact ... that's all I'm saying

Lotto (read: Coucke) was also sooo certain they would win in '08 ... life's full of surprises

 

[auscyclefan94]

he had his chance in '08 ... he blew it ...

who says he's even invited this year (he probably will, but still) ...

maybe you need to watch stage 9 or the 2008 tour de france. or how he was targeted out 3 on 1. Cadel was very happy to get 2nd that year and to just finish. Statiscly he thought if he didn't have the crash, he was the best rider in the race.

 

[ak-zaaf]

maybe you need to watch stage 9 or the 2008 tour de france. or how he was targeted out 3 on 1. Cadel was very happy to get 2nd that year and to just finish. Statiscly he thought if he didn't have the crash, he was the best rider in the race.

Still blew it. If there ever was a year for a not-so-great GC contender to win the tour it was 2006, but 2008 comes in as a close second.
Now we have Contador and Schleck and it's over.

There is always an excuse for Evans, "Statiscly" Sastre won the race and Evans never will.

 

[BroDeal]

maybe you need to watch stage 9 or the 2008 tour de france. or how he was targeted out 3 on 1. Cadel was very happy to get 2nd that year and to just finish. Statiscly he thought if he didn't have the crash, he was the best rider in the race.

Evans blew it on Alpe d'Huez. He should have ridden his own pace to the top, forgetting about the Schlecks. Instead he played games while Sastre gained time. This probably was not his fault. His DS should have told him what to do.

 

[biker jk]

Still blew it. If there ever was a year for a not-so-great GC contender to win the tour it was 2006, but 2008 comes in as a close second.
Now we have Contador and Schleck and it's over.

There is always an excuse for Evans, "Statiscly" Sastre won the race and Evans never will.

When you say Cadel "blew it" you do know he was significantly handicapped by the fall and not at full strength on Alpe d'Huez nor the ITT? It's over the top to say he "blew it" given this very pertinent circumstance (or "excuse" as you call it).

 

[Ferminal]

When you say Cadel "blew it" you do know he was significantly handicapped by the fall and not at full strength on Alpe d'Huez nor the ITT? It's over the top to say he "blew it" given this very pertinent circumstance (or "excuse" as you call it).

So without the crash Evans wins by a minute?

 

[tjwracer]

Still blew it. If there ever was a year for a not-so-great GC contender to win the tour it was 2006, but 2008 comes in as a close second.
Now we have Contador and Schleck and it's over.

There is always an excuse for Evans, "Statiscly" Sastre won the race and Evans never will.

"not so great GC contender" He has finished Second in the tour twice in some of the closest finishes ever. By saying that you basically said that Basso Ulrich Kloden Levi etc. are not so good GC contenders!!!!!Cadel is one of the most solid riders in the peloton!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans blew it on Alpe d'Huez. He should have ridden his own pace to the top, forgetting about the Schlecks. Instead he played games while Sastre gained time. This probably was not his fault. His DS should have told him what to do.

Evans couldn't go any harder on the Alpe. He was not in good shape. he was pretty much ******ed. If you watch the final 2km of the Alpe, Sanchez, valverde and andy schleck all rode away from evans. Valverde again was working against evans with little dummy attacks.

 

[Angliru]

Evans couldn't go any harder on the Alpe. He was not in good shape. he was pretty much ******ed. If you watch the final 2km of the Alpe, Sanchez, valverde and andy schleck all rode away from evans. Valverde again was working against evans with little dummy attacks.

So maybe Valverde should have been working with Evans??? To serve what purpose?? This sounds quite familar. Is this part of the official Cadel Evans fanclub mantra to whine about how your opponents won't help you or ride in a fashion that is complimentary to the Evans strategy? Shades of the 2009 Dauphine Ventoux stage. Evans was upset on that stage that no one took it upon themselves to counter Valverde's attack, especially fingering Contador for not chasing Valverde down. If I do recall, Evans was in the leader's jersey at the time, not Contador. Am I missing something here or is the fact that I have a bias for Spanish climbers that my perspective is skewed?

 

[Ferminal]

So maybe Valverde should have been working with Evans??? To serve what purpose?? This sounds quite familar. Is this part of the official Cadel Evans fanclub mantra to whine about how your opponents won't help you or ride in a fashion that is complimentary to the Evans strategy? Shades of the 2009 Dauphine Ventoux stage. Evans was upset on that stage that no one took it upon themselves to counter Valverde's attack, especially fingering Contador for not chasing Valverde down. If I do recall, Evans was in the leader's jersey at the time, not Contador. Am I missing something here or is the fact that I have a bias for Spanish climbers that my perspective is skewed?

It's just excuses for bad tactics...

At worst, Evans loses 30s to Valverde on a MTF. He let him go because he thought he would be able to regain time over the next couple of days. I think he only complained in the coming days when he tried to attack but Contador dragged Piti along.

He should've stuck with "I'm just here to prep for TdF" rather than get caught in two minds and search for excuses when it doesn't turn out in his favour. But that's Cadel, he doesn't enter races to compete in the second tier. The Vuelta was supposedly only prep for the worlds, but he was clearly going for the win.

 

[auscyclefan94]

So maybe Valverde should have been working with Evans??? To serve what purpose?? This sounds quite familar. Is this part of the official Cadel Evans fanclub mantra to whine about how your opponents won't help you or ride in a fashion that is complimentary to the Evans strategy? Shades of the 2009 Dauphine Ventoux stage. Evans was upset on that stage that no one took it upon themselves to counter Valverde's attack, especially fingering Contador for not chasing Valverde down. If I do recall, Evans was in the leader's jersey at the time, not Contador. Am I missing something here or is the fact that I have a bias for Spanish climbers that my perspective is skewed?

Just making the point that they were working against him but I understand why because their was a spainish rider up the road. On Alpe Dhuez, evans simply didn't have it to chase or react to Contador. On the dauphine ventoux stage he only started to chase when they got into the windy part and then he was no chance of closing the gap. he let valverde go up the road and wanted contador to chase which was really a tatical blunder.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Valverde has always attacked, even when it is pointless... I think it's more of a matter of pride rather then a plot against evans

 

[Señor_Contador]

Valverde will never win the Tour.

He lacks the discipline.

He is always dropped 2 kilometers out of a 10 mile climb.

It's all mental.

 

[ScottyMuser]

I still can't see why people still are rating RS as a stronger team than Astana, they simply aren't.
Strongest 3 teams in next years TDF WILL be Astana, Liquigas, Saxo Bank (not sure the order).
RS have a past-it TDF multiple winner (although tbh, the years where he won it, he had an INFINITELY weaker field than this year, AND was at his peak); 2 riders in AK/Levi who in a GTR could realistically aim for top 10 with the right support and parcours, and almost nothing else. The main reason AK/LA placed highly last year IMO was on the early parts of climbs, Contadro was pulling for THEM (then got bored and rode away).
Astana on the other hand have in AC an infinitely better rider than all of RS, Perrerio (who if he finds form) is a better rider than AK/Levi in the mountains by a distance, and LA too probably, Vino (ditto), and then some strong Spanish climbers backing him up.
Saxo Bank have probably the 2nd best GT rider out there, supported by Frank (who himself is better than any of the RS boys), the engine of Cancellara for early parts of climbs, Voigt (on his day easily as good a domestique as AK/Levi) and several other climbers.

For me, though, a team that could really shake things up is Liquigas. Last year they had both Nibali AND Kreuzeiger in the top 10, with little support from the other top class climber in their team (Pelizotti was focussed on breaks and getting the KOM jersey) - this year Pelizotti may be used as a domestique more, then they have Basso (as good a climber as AK/Levi/LA/Cadel etc and after Ullrich was the best GC rider LA ever beat), Zaugg (a good climber) AND Szymd (I rate him for a climber as good as AK). A line up of Basso/Nibali/Kreuzeiger/Pelizotti/Zaugg/Szymd is a pretty fearsome six-some (and depending on their focus, they could take Chicchi/Bennati/AN Other as sprinters, or another climber/support or 2 too!)

I would put RS marginally ahead of Cadel's BMC crew, but weaker than Caisse (by a LONG way if Ally Vally is allowed to turn up), in the mountains (and IF they can get it together as team) Euskatel and about at a level with Sky/.Garmin.

As for the question whether BMC will get an invite - it depends on how many teams are allowed to enter (20-22 is the probably range). Assuming the 18 ProTour teams all get invites, then the remaining 2-4 spots will be competed for by Confidis, Vacansoleil, Cervelo, Skil-Shimano, BMC and BBox.
I can't see a scenario where Cervelo won't be invited as a ProConti (denying Hushovd the chance to defend the green jersey, plus them having 2 more big names in Sastre/Haussler).
So that leaves between 1 and 3 slots open; now it depends on ASO's intentions, and how similar they behave to the other GT organisers. I would hope they would prioritise having at least 1 other French team in the race - and Vacansoleil are probably favs for that (having the Feillu brothers and Hoogerland help). So for me, then BMC are competing with teams who *traditionally* have been TDF teams, with some very high profile(French) names - Confidis have Moncoutie, BBox have everyone's favourite Frenchmen TiVo (and he guarantees excitement on flatter stages with his breaks) and Nicolas Vogondy (plus a lot of up and coming French talents); and Skil Shimano, whilst not having anyone huge profile, is one of the more respected names in cycling (and have everyone fav lanterne Rouge Van Hummel!)
So, I would expect that both Cervelo and Vacansoleil are marginally ahead of BMC, and very much up to the organiser whether they have 21/22 teams (in which case competing with BBox/Confidis). Just having the WC is a pull for the event certainly (but not always a good 1 - Ballan for instance came no higher than 19th in any stage and did nothing of air time, and the previous 2 years his team QS chose not to even TAKE Bettini when he was WC 2 years in a row), but other than him, George H is not anywhere near as big a pull as a lot of the other US cyclists (am thinking here of Levi/Ferrar/VDV/Dave Z - let alone Lance!), and it may be considered a risk to have THREE brand new teams (not to mention an insult to other teams like BBox/Confidis who have been in the sport a long time and have higher profile french cyclists to get the French PUBLIC up for the event). For me, if it was a 21 team event I wouldn't take BMC, a 22 anmd I would wait 2/3 months and see whether their results are good enough, else not take themn either.

IF BMC where to go, I would argue that it would take a) a fair bit of luck, b) other teams to foul up on the cobbles and c) other teams trying to break Conti to much and losing all their riders, to even get evans in top 5 - I would be suprised if he were to finish top 10 even! Could he win the TDF - not without his team/other Aussies deliberately riding Conti/Both Schlecks/Sastre/Armstrong/Perreiro/Ally Vally/Samu Sanchez/LL Sanchez/the entire Liquigas team and others off the road. He just isn't strong enough, to make ANY group of 15 climbers on a mountain finish for me

 

[therealtimshady]

bbox and cofidis

apparantly they have an agreemant form lats year whereby they will both be guaranteed an invite. so they both WILL be at the tour de france

 

[ScottyMuser]

apparantly they have an agreemant form lats year whereby they will both be guaranteed an invite. so they both WILL be at the tour de france

who is the "both" you are talking about? BMC and whom? (or do you mean Ally Vally, despite the potential UCI doping ban?)

 

[Galic Ho]

Valverde will never win the Tour.

He lacks the discipline.

He is always dropped 2 kilometers out of a 10 mile climb.

It's all mental.

Sounds like you have some knowledge? Why is it then that Valverde won the Vuelta?

If you must persist in mixing metric and imperial standards at least do the conversions for those who cannot. What percentage is 2 km's of a 10 mile climb? It isn't 20%. It's all mental. So true, it's all in your head. For the record, ten miles equates to 16 kilometres, you do the math.

 

[UpTheRoad]

who is the "both" you are talking about? BMC and whom? (or do you mean Ally Vally, despite the potential UCI doping ban?)

He added a new subject line and was referring to Cofidis and Bbox.

 

[ScottyMuser]

He added a new subject line and was referring to Cofidis and Bbox.

Ah I see, sorry, am so used to on other forums (fora?) everyone ignoring the subject line being left blank. So if we assume that this agreement holds, and the 18 ProTour teams (as they should do) all get invites that ALREADY takes us up to to 20 teams.
for 22 teams to take part, one would assume (as I pointed out previously) that the established Cervelo team (with 2 good sprinters and a GC candidate), would automatically get the place. Leaving us with a fight between BMC (with only really Evans as a plus point) and Vacansoleil (who as I pointed out have a good mix of french talent, important for the TDF to appeal to the French public, and the young talent of Hoogerland) for the remaining place. I myself would probably think Vacansoleil fopr the place, but it would be close - I suppose they could choose not to invite 1 of the ProTour teams (Footon-Servetto in which case, who missed out last year due to the year before having Ricco) to make room for both, but this may be harsh considering the status of the ProTour teams. Only time will tell I suppose.

 

[Galic Ho]

I still can't see why people still are rating RS as a stronger team than Astana, they simply aren't.
Strongest 3 teams in next years TDF WILL be Astana, Liquigas, Saxo Bank (not sure the order).

On Team Strength. Spot on. I listed the same thing earlier. Radioshack are severely overrated and so are Sky. If I were the ASO they would be left out. Cofidis and Skil have guarantees from last year. We'll have to wait and see if they are honoured. I don't like queue jumpers, so Sky and the Shack can wait till 2011. Plus it would be hilarious seeing the fanboys reactions. BMC have a chance for an invite. Vancansoleil on the Feillu brothers? Not good enough.

Liquigas is the only thing I believe you ranked incorrectly. Yes Basso is good and so to Pellizotti. Most here have agreed that Kreuziger or Nibali will be number one for France. But who? Someone gets burnt. Riders have ego's. After Sky stuff up, just wait and see them poach Nibali. In 2008, Kreuziger came 11th (?) and Nibali around 17 or 18 (?) from memory. That reversed in 2009 with Nibali leapfrogging Kreuziger and notching 7th on the clock. Not bad. They can climb, but aren't wonderful enough to match the big moves. They're close to Wiggins in my book and the Shack's No.1 rider. One rider may creep near 5th, but that is it. They had the ability in 2009 to make moves. They did squat. Lack the will and ability to move with the big players. Basso showed the same in the Giro and Vuelta.

You underestimate Evans. He will finish top 10 if he doesn't ride super hard at the Giro. I've mentioned earlier where I believe the ratings and rankings are truthful. The top 5 riders are the top 5 GC riders. Cadel can hope for 3rd at best at the Tour, maybe higher if he gets really lucky (go out and buy a lotto ticket if he does). The top GC guys are in this order:

1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schleck (hilly tours, long ITT he goes to 3rd)
3. Valverde and Sanchez (they are very similar)
4. Cadel Evans
5. Sastre and Menchov

These are the guys to beat. Nibali and Kreuziger (I like Nibali more right now), The Shack Attack crew, Wiggins, Vandevelde, Gesink, Basso and Pellizotti will all squabble over the rest. Throw in Vino as well. Then there are the solid French boys. Evans will be in the final climbs with all these guys, except the 4 I listed above him. The four above Cadel are the only GC guys who can beat him day in, day out in the hills. Sastre and Menchov will be close to him (depending on which GT he aims for because we know Menchov is aiming for the TdF and Carlos the Giro). Sastre can get time on Cadel in the hills in the Giro, as can Pellizotti. Dennis at the Tour? He almost got time on Evans in 2008, then he crashed. He has shown the nerve, he just hasn't pulled it off. He is my big unknown for the Tour, primarily because he has a multitude of near stellar moments, but something goes amiss and he settles for close to the podium. These same moments turn out well for him when he takes the same attitude and attacking philosophy in the Giro or Vuelta.

So what do I know? To win the Tour you need to be a monster climber or at least hold your ground, when the final attacks come and you outlast all the other top 10 hopefuls (excluding Schlecks and Contador). Evans can do this. So can Menchov. Sastre and Pellizotti will go for the Giro. You need to be able to change your tempo and then accelerate in the hills. I can only think of four GC riders who can climb at tempo, then attack over 3 weeks and then have reasonable enough chronos to make the podium. They're listed 1 to 3 above. Cadel and Menchov are good enough all rounders that they can stand a chance. I'd add Levi to that mix, but he will ride for Big Tex, so there goes his hopes. Someone will say Wiggins, Nibali, Gesink, Kreuziger. They have to prove it first. They haven't. Gesink at the Vuelta proved little. It would be like rating Tom Danielson on the same race. He was up there for a while. If you cannot match the accelerations, you burn time and have to race your own race. Smart racers will stand a chance for improving (lucky ones will have the Shack pull them back up to the leaders, ask Sastre about that). Evans has shown he can stick at it in the past and produce a strong showing, so he is on theory alone, in the top 5 and a podium shot. I expect 3 to 5 to be very close this year. Contador to win by 2 or 3 minutes easy. Only a Spaniard will beat him. Weird, I know, but Shleck won't beat him. Even if AC leaves the race, he won't win.