114th Paris-Roubaix - UCI World Tour (10/4-2016)

[Orbit501]

Re: Re:

Can someone explain me how Rowe or Stannard have even some chance to win? It is like considering Thomas among San Remo favourites, just nonsense, I know that cyclingnews always pick up someone from SKY no matter what but I did not expected that someone from here will even mention them

Rowe was 5th in Flanders and he prefers the flat of Roubaix, where he was 8th last year . He has a good chance of a very good performance, and is an (very) unlikely winner but you never know.

Exactly my point in putting forward Rowe to do well this year.

I never made a case for Stannard at Roubaix.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Its funny to read all the nonsense about how Sagan needs a 2min recovery break between efforts, his lack of experience riding on pave and mud.

I always thought that he is a pretty decent time trialist and in TTs there is no 2min recovery. Perhaps DFA123 can explain why Cancellara along with Vanmarcke was unable to catch him last Sunday? Where did he get the needed recovery you were talking about?

Phew, the only way for Sagan to lose this race is to have some bad luck or if he is over-confident and will over-estimate his power by some crazy long distance solo attack. In addition, some early breakaway may stay away and take this. (the usual suspects such as Barta, Durbridge etc)

Cance + Sagan to enter the velodrome together ... Experience may win this one

TT's are not anaerobic.

I just think that Sagan needs a brief recovery before his anaerobic efforts (or sprint) to be at his best. Of course, this year he's shown that he's a great rouleur - but he still has struggled to produce a strong anaerobic effort immediately following a hard aerobic effort (e.g. the finish at Strade Bianche, E3). He won GW thanks to a massive drop in the pace in the last 2km - giving him the recovery needed - and in RVV he was aerobic all the way to the line.

The last 4 hours of Paris Roubaix are anaerobic efforts over the cobbles, followed immediately by hard aerobic efforts on the sections in between. I think if Cancellara makes it a hard race, Sagan will struggle to respond to his attacks late on.

Of course, this isn't to say Sagan can't win. On his current form, and with his sprint, he's certainly has a chance to win - particularly if there is a headwind. But I don't think this it's as suited to him as RVV, and think Canc should start as outright favourite.

 

[Echoes]

Re: Re:

well, hid didn't race any Elite CX WCH, but he not sign for liquigas, I think he would have some title by now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgL4CuKgsOE

He couldn't even beat Arnaud Jouffroy...

 

[GP Blanco]

Hoping for a muddy one. Unfortunately some posters spoiled my dreams by writing it will be sunny. By the way, it will be Popovych's last race.

http://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20160406_02223575

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

Its funny to read all the nonsense about how Sagan needs a 2min recovery break between efforts, his lack of experience riding on pave and mud.

I always thought that he is a pretty decent time trialist and in TTs there is no 2min recovery. Perhaps DFA123 can explain why Cancellara along with Vanmarcke was unable to catch him last Sunday? Where did he get the needed recovery you were talking about?

Phew, the only way for Sagan to lose this race is to have some bad luck or if he is over-confident and will over-estimate his power by some crazy long distance solo attack. In addition, some early breakaway may stay away and take this. (the usual suspects such as Barta, Durbridge etc)

I think Rowe deserves to be on the favourites' list, while to defend Stannard he has peaked for Omloop (or at least rather earlier in the season). It's not inconceivable Rowe has the strength to win (he won Espoirs, right?) but it's hard to imagine the tactical situation.

Cance + Sagan to enter the velodrome together ... Experience may win this one

Surprisingly enough, on the descent. What a shocking notion.
Anyway, the point isn't that Sagan was able to hold off Cancellara at the end, which was certainly an impressive performance, the point is that Sagan already had a gap because of his explosivity on the Oude Kwaremont. Where, precisely, is Sagan supposed to gain time? When he does, will it be because he's more skilled on muddy cobbles than two CX world champions (he isn't), or because he's stronger on the flat than a four-time ITT WC? If he doesn't manage to drop Kristoff or Cancellara, all the indications this season are that he'd lose a velodrome sprint.

well, hid didn't race any Elite CX WCH, but he not sign for liquigas, I think he would have some title by now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgL4CuKgsOE

Well, during his tests for EQS he reportedly told Lefevre he wanted to focus on MTB, which rather implies he wouldn't have done CX.

On sprinting: I think it's quite clear from Sagan's own statements that he's not confident in his sprint. As DFA notes, the one he did win he won thanks to resting in the last 2-3km.

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Erviti FTW.

Doesn't start.

 

[cellardoor]

Re:

There's a lot of talk about Benoot being absent, but the real lose is that Lampaert is not here.

Did something happen to him as he's been kinda quiet since his "the new Boonen" moment last year?

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

There's a lot of talk about Benoot being absent, but the real lose is that Lampaert is not here.

Did something happen to him as he's been kinda quiet since his "the new Boonen" moment last year?

His girlfriend hit his Achilles' tendon with a supermarket trolley. (In a supermarket, I believe.)

 

[rainman]

I hope for sun, fewer crashes. I dont see Cance doing a 2010 no matter how motivated to win his final Roubaix. Likewise Sagan isn't about to drop him. Then who will work, the would be winner may need a team mate present or someone to pull. Kristoff is surely coming in to form, he may still be there. Mechs, falls, order of team cars, so many factors to consider, always compelling. I'd like to see Tommeke take one more but cant see how its possible.

 

[King Of Molehill]

Boom alone ahead of Kristoff in a sprint for second for me. My darkhorse pick is André Greipel!

 

[cellardoor]

Re:

I hope for sun, fewer crashes. I dont see Cance doing a 2010 no matter how motivated to win his final Roubaix. Likewise Sagan isn't about to drop him. Then who will work, the would be winner may need a team mate present or someone to pull. Kristoff is surely coming in to form, he may still be there. Mechs, falls, order of team cars, so many factors to consider, always compelling. I'd like to see Tommeke take one more but cant see how its possible.

I'm pretty sure Cancellara would work with Sagan. Sagan has lost as many sprints as he's won this year and Cancellara could lay off towards the end in order to ensure that the chasing group gets close enough that Sagan doesn't get a chance to rest.

 

[King Boonen]

It's hard to call. If it's dry or raced defensively we could see a big bunch arrive together in Roubaix and then you have Sagan, EBH, Kristoff, Rowe, Boonen (more likely than a solo break I think), Demare, Lobato and outsiders like Cav, Bennett, Thwaites, Farrar etc. all of whom may be able to hang on if the group stays large enough.

If it's wet or raced hard I think we're still likely to see a bunch, just much reduced and then I can't see past Sagan. Cancellara isn't going to let people get away and neither are Etixx, Sagan can probably just follow wheels if he wants and be almost assured of getting dragged along to the velodrome in the front group.

Saga also looked ridiculously strong in De Ronde. Easily strong enough to make a Boonen-style break. Honestly, can't see past him for Sunday. I think the only way he loses is a break being allowed to go and stay away which would mean a random winner outside any favourite list or a big bunch arriving at the velodrome and a sprinter pipping him on the line.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

It's hard to call. If it's dry or raced defensively we could see a big bunch arrive together in Roubaix and then you have Sagan, EBH, Kristoff, Rowe, Boonen (more likely than a solo break I think), Demare, Lobato and outsiders like Cav, Bennett, Thwaites, Farrar etc. all of whom may be able to hang on if the group stays large enough.

If it's wet or raced hard I think we're still likely to see a bunch, just much reduced and then I can't see past Sagan. Cancellara isn't going to let people get away and neither are Etixx, Sagan can probably just follow wheels if he wants and be almost assured of getting dragged along to the velodrome in the front group.

Saga also looked ridiculously strong in De Ronde. Easily strong enough to make a Boonen-style break. Honestly, can't see past him for Sunday. I think the only way he loses is a break being allowed to go and stay away which would mean a random winner outside any favourite list or a big bunch arriving at the velodrome and a sprinter pipping him on the line.

You don't think an initial Cancellara attack would be enough to reduce the group to maximum of 5 ft Sagan, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Terpstra etc, and then another one to go clear? You think Sagan can hold on?

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

It's hard to call. If it's dry or raced defensively we could see a big bunch arrive together in Roubaix and then you have Sagan, EBH, Kristoff, Rowe, Boonen (more likely than a solo break I think), Demare, Lobato and outsiders like Cav, Bennett, Thwaites, Farrar etc. all of whom may be able to hang on if the group stays large enough.

If it's wet or raced hard I think we're still likely to see a bunch, just much reduced and then I can't see past Sagan. Cancellara isn't going to let people get away and neither are Etixx, Sagan can probably just follow wheels if he wants and be almost assured of getting dragged along to the velodrome in the front group.

Saga also looked ridiculously strong in De Ronde. Easily strong enough to make a Boonen-style break. Honestly, can't see past him for Sunday. I think the only way he loses is a break being allowed to go and stay away which would mean a random winner outside any favourite list or a big bunch arriving at the velodrome and a sprinter pipping him on the line.

You don't think an initial Cancellara attack would be enough to reduce the group to maximum of 5 ft Sagan, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Terpstra etc, and then another one to go clear? You think Sagan can hold on?

Based on the Ronde the first thing might happen but I don't think Cancellara can drop him without other people softening him up first. Cancellara needs to let Vanmarcke, Stybar etc. attack and force Sagan to do the work. He won't though, he'll chase everything to try and get the perfect sending off and end up dragging Sagan with him.

Even if he did drop him, others will chance and Sagan can follow wheels. He wants to win but he has De Ronde so he has the perfect excuse not to work.

 

[samhocking]

Not sure what to make of Hammond saying he thinks Cavendish can win Roubaix? I can't ever see it happening, but Hammond has a lot of tactical experience in that race, which makes you wonder?

 

[BeagRigh]

I agree with KB here, if Sagan plays a good game of poker this should be his race to lose.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Démare DNS

 

[PremierAndrew]

Not sure what to make of Hammond saying he thinks Cavendish can win Roubaix? I can't ever see it happening, but Hammond has a lot of tactical experience in that race, which makes you wonder?

Doubt it, wouldn't complain if he does manage to transform into a cobbles specialist. If I were him, I'd stick to sprinting and try and beat Cippo's victory tally, but a new goal may provide extra motivation to improve. I question whether he'd have the stamina though, I would have thought that RVV suits him more

 

[Cannibal72]

Re:

Démare DNS

That's a real shame.

It's hard to call. If it's dry or raced defensively we could see a big bunch arrive together in Roubaix and then you have Sagan, EBH, Kristoff, Rowe, Boonen (more likely than a solo break I think), Demare, Lobato and outsiders like Cav, Bennett, Thwaites, Farrar etc. all of whom may be able to hang on if the group stays large enough.

If it's wet or raced hard I think we're still likely to see a bunch, just much reduced and then I can't see past Sagan. Cancellara isn't going to let people get away and neither are Etixx, Sagan can probably just follow wheels if he wants and be almost assured of getting dragged along to the velodrome in the front group.

Saga also looked ridiculously strong in De Ronde. Easily strong enough to make a Boonen-style break. Honestly, can't see past him for Sunday. I think the only way he loses is a break being allowed to go and stay away which would mean a random winner outside any favourite list or a big bunch arriving at the velodrome and a sprinter pipping him on the line.

You don't think an initial Cancellara attack would be enough to reduce the group to maximum of 5 ft Sagan, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Terpstra etc, and then another one to go clear? You think Sagan can hold on?

Based on the Ronde the first thing might happen but I don't think Cancellara can drop him without other people softening him up first. Cancellara needs to let Vanmarcke, Stybar etc. attack and force Sagan to do the work. He won't though, he'll chase everything to try and get the perfect sending off and end up dragging Sagan with him.

Even if he did drop him, others will chance and Sagan can follow wheels. He wants to win but he has De Ronde so he has the perfect excuse not to work.

I still don't think Sagan will win, but a lot depends on EQS. They should have the most riders in a hypothetical selection; if they ride tempo pointlessly like they always do then the chances for Sagan (if he makes it) increase. If they attack successively with Terpstra, Stybar, Vandenbergh and so on then they will certainly make a more exciting race and increase their chances of winning greatoy.

 

[trucido]

Re:

Démare DNS

That's a pity, I'd like to have seen him do 80km/h on the Forest of Arenberg or the Carrefour de l'Arbe sections.

 

[tomorrow]

https://twitter.com/TrekSegafredo/status/718033841374568449

lots of soil there, with some rain, we would really get the mayhem.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

I agree with KB here, if Sagan plays a good game of poker this should be his race to lose.

Woohoo!

 

[Jspear]

Not sure what to make of Hammond saying he thinks Cavendish can win Roubaix? I can't ever see it happening, but Hammond has a lot of tactical experience in that race, which makes you wonder?

Doubt it, wouldn't complain if he does manage to transform into a cobbles specialist. If I were him, I'd stick to sprinting and try and beat Cippo's victory tally, but a new goal may provide extra motivation to improve. I question whether he'd have the stamina though, I would have thought that RVV suits him more

No way. If he ever managed to do well in a cobbled monument it would be PR....imo.

 

[therhodeo]

Super unlikely but I'd be really excited to see Greipel make it to the velodrome in the first group. Hard to not cheer for that guy.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

It's hard to call. If it's dry or raced defensively we could see a big bunch arrive together in Roubaix and then you have Sagan, EBH, Kristoff, Rowe, Boonen (more likely than a solo break I think), Demare, Lobato and outsiders like Cav, Bennett, Thwaites, Farrar etc. all of whom may be able to hang on if the group stays large enough.

If it's wet or raced hard I think we're still likely to see a bunch, just much reduced and then I can't see past Sagan. Cancellara isn't going to let people get away and neither are Etixx, Sagan can probably just follow wheels if he wants and be almost assured of getting dragged along to the velodrome in the front group.

Saga also looked ridiculously strong in De Ronde. Easily strong enough to make a Boonen-style break. Honestly, can't see past him for Sunday. I think the only way he loses is a break being allowed to go and stay away which would mean a random winner outside any favourite list or a big bunch arriving at the velodrome and a sprinter pipping him on the line.

You don't think an initial Cancellara attack would be enough to reduce the group to maximum of 5 ft Sagan, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Terpstra etc, and then another one to go clear? You think Sagan can hold on?

Based on the Ronde the first thing might happen but I don't think Cancellara can drop him without other people softening him up first. Cancellara needs to let Vanmarcke, Stybar etc. attack and force Sagan to do the work. He won't though, he'll chase everything to try and get the perfect sending off and end up dragging Sagan with him.

Even if he did drop him, others will chance and Sagan can follow wheels. He wants to win but he has De Ronde so he has the perfect excuse not to work.

Every year people make the mistake of equating RVV and PR. Of course there is an overlap, but they are fundamentally different races and require different skills to win. Some riders have the ability to do well on both, others don't.

The entire last 150km of Paris Roubaix is softening up. Unless there is a strong headwind, every rider is working hard and is on or close to the limit when the pave sections come up. It's not like RVV where you need huge bursts of power, with relatively little in between.

If there is a reasonable headwind then that all changes and it becomes much more like RVV.