Re: Re:
I'm not equating them, I'm looking at how people rode and whether I think they have shown the attributes to win on both courses. Sagan has.
DFA123 said:King Boonen said:PremierAndrew said:King Boonen said:It's hard to call. If it's dry or raced defensively we could see a big bunch arrive together in Roubaix and then you have Sagan, EBH, Kristoff, Rowe, Boonen (more likely than a solo break I think), Demare, Lobato and outsiders like Cav, Bennett, Thwaites, Farrar etc. all of whom may be able to hang on if the group stays large enough.
If it's wet or raced hard I think we're still likely to see a bunch, just much reduced and then I can't see past Sagan. Cancellara isn't going to let people get away and neither are Etixx, Sagan can probably just follow wheels if he wants and be almost assured of getting dragged along to the velodrome in the front group.
Saga also looked ridiculously strong in De Ronde. Easily strong enough to make a Boonen-style break. Honestly, can't see past him for Sunday. I think the only way he loses is a break being allowed to go and stay away which would mean a random winner outside any favourite list or a big bunch arriving at the velodrome and a sprinter pipping him on the line.
You don't think an initial Cancellara attack would be enough to reduce the group to maximum of 5 ft Sagan, Stybar, Vanmarcke, Terpstra etc, and then another one to go clear? You think Sagan can hold on?
Based on the Ronde the first thing might happen but I don't think Cancellara can drop him without other people softening him up first. Cancellara needs to let Vanmarcke, Stybar etc. attack and force Sagan to do the work. He won't though, he'll chase everything to try and get the perfect sending off and end up dragging Sagan with him.
Even if he did drop him, others will chance and Sagan can follow wheels. He wants to win but he has De Ronde so he has the perfect excuse not to work.
Every year people make the mistake of equating RVV and PR. Of course there is an overlap, but they are fundamentally different races and require different skills to win. Some riders have the ability to do well on both, others don't.
The entire last 150km of Paris Roubaix is softening up. Unless there is a strong headwind, every rider is working hard and is on or close to the limit when the pave sections come up. It's not like RVV where you need huge bursts of power, with relatively little in between.
If there is a reasonable headwind then that all changes and it becomes much more like RVV.
I'm not equating them, I'm looking at how people rode and whether I think they have shown the attributes to win on both courses. Sagan has.