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- Nov 16, 2013
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Re:
Okay, that's fine, but if you really think it through and start looking at percentage chance of winning, it's clear that Sagan in a sprint has a higher probability than Matthews in a sprint.
Sagan in a break was probably lower than Sagan in a sprint, since it was unlikely that the race wouldn't be decided in a sprint (though I must admit that I don't think Sagan had it in him to follow Alaphilippe today - his sickness was probably influencing him a bit).
The question is whether Matthews in a break also had a lower probablity than Matthews in a sprint? I'm not entirely sure about that.
But I'm not a bookmaker so I don't really know how this can be estimated correctly.
However, if we say that the probability of Sagan winning in the sprint was 55% and Matthews was 5%, the probability of the race ending in a sprint was 65%, and each had a 20% chance of winning from a break, the following numbers come up:
Sagan from sprint: 0.65*0.55 = 35.75%
Sagan from break: 0.35*0.2 = 7%
Matthews from sprint: 0.65*0.05 = 3.25%
Matthews from break: 0.35*0.2 = 7%
If my numbers aren't completely off (which they may be), this shows why it would be better for Matthews to try something other than the sprint and why Sagan relying on the sprint would be the better idea. This interpretation depends on an assumption that the probability of winning from a sprint was approximately zero if the rider had tried to go for it in a break.
I admit that this is based on a LOT of guess-work, so my post may be pure BS, without that being the intention, though.
Brullnux said:
Okay, that's fine, but if you really think it through and start looking at percentage chance of winning, it's clear that Sagan in a sprint has a higher probability than Matthews in a sprint.
Sagan in a break was probably lower than Sagan in a sprint, since it was unlikely that the race wouldn't be decided in a sprint (though I must admit that I don't think Sagan had it in him to follow Alaphilippe today - his sickness was probably influencing him a bit).
The question is whether Matthews in a break also had a lower probablity than Matthews in a sprint? I'm not entirely sure about that.
But I'm not a bookmaker so I don't really know how this can be estimated correctly.
However, if we say that the probability of Sagan winning in the sprint was 55% and Matthews was 5%, the probability of the race ending in a sprint was 65%, and each had a 20% chance of winning from a break, the following numbers come up:
Sagan from sprint: 0.65*0.55 = 35.75%
Sagan from break: 0.35*0.2 = 7%
Matthews from sprint: 0.65*0.05 = 3.25%
Matthews from break: 0.35*0.2 = 7%
If my numbers aren't completely off (which they may be), this shows why it would be better for Matthews to try something other than the sprint and why Sagan relying on the sprint would be the better idea. This interpretation depends on an assumption that the probability of winning from a sprint was approximately zero if the rider had tried to go for it in a break.
I admit that this is based on a LOT of guess-work, so my post may be pure BS, without that being the intention, though.
- Jul 13, 2016
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- Mar 13, 2009
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I can't tell. Haven't seen those races. I just remember Boonen paced by the Mr Bookmaker car after a puncture at the 2004 E3 Harelbeke. I remember Bernard Thévenet explicitly said that it was tolerated on France TV a long time ago. I remember Voeckler on an edition of the Tour of Lombardy while not even having bad luck.
Had Moscon not crashed he would have been up there.
Had Moscon not crashed he would have been up there.
- May 5, 2010
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Why am I feeling personally disappointed by this? (Denmark's failure at the end)
But just imagine if they'd actually pulled it off, how perfectly balanced it would have been: Norway got an elite (male) road racing European champion on Danish soil, then Denmark could've gotten an elite (male) road racing world champion on Norwegian soil.
But just imagine if they'd actually pulled it off, how perfectly balanced it would have been: Norway got an elite (male) road racing European champion on Danish soil, then Denmark could've gotten an elite (male) road racing world champion on Norwegian soil.
- Nov 16, 2013
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Re:
https://twitter.com/CyclingHubTV/status/912018053927489539
After seeing this footage, I must admit that I think Cort made a very good move. If it hadn't been for Bettiol's presence in the group, he (Cort) would have become World Champion. It was really disorganised when he went for it.
RedheadDane said:
https://twitter.com/CyclingHubTV/status/912018053927489539
After seeing this footage, I must admit that I think Cort made a very good move. If it hadn't been for Bettiol's presence in the group, he (Cort) would have become World Champion. It was really disorganised when he went for it.
- May 5, 2010
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Re: Re:
Sure, it looked pretty good for a while there.
And now I can't help but wonder what might've been if it had been Valgren or Kragh who'd attacked, and Cort who'd been lying in wait ready for the sprint.
Guess that's just how cycling is. A move can be both really clever; if it actually works, and really stupid; if it fails.
tobydawq said:
Sure, it looked pretty good for a while there.
And now I can't help but wonder what might've been if it had been Valgren or Kragh who'd attacked, and Cort who'd been lying in wait ready for the sprint.
Guess that's just how cycling is. A move can be both really clever; if it actually works, and really stupid; if it fails.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yaJGAboivHk
Missing footage from last 5km. All the salty Sagan haters should watch how he actually managed to work on the front and drastically helped to bridge the breakaway.
Missing footage from last 5km. All the salty Sagan haters should watch how he actually managed to work on the front and drastically helped to bridge the breakaway.
SKSemtex said:Will you be so tolerant, when Sagan crash next time and use this kind of sticky bottle? FOR SURE YES.
I have never said anything about a rider that is not worth for another one, so stop it now. I'm coherent, I'm not a hypocrite. It's happened at the last Paris-Roubaix already but some among the Sagan fan community would rather see Van Avermaet doing it ...
- Nov 16, 2013
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Re: Re:
Who? All the sprinters were isolated. GvA had Gilbert, so perhaps him, but that is questionable. Gaviria had Urán but had just been in the break.
The only other nations with more than one rider were Russia, the Netherlands, France and Denmark but they either didn't have a sprinter, had Alaphilippe who had been in the front or were Denmark.
AQETUYIOI said:
Who? All the sprinters were isolated. GvA had Gilbert, so perhaps him, but that is questionable. Gaviria had Urán but had just been in the break.
The only other nations with more than one rider were Russia, the Netherlands, France and Denmark but they either didn't have a sprinter, had Alaphilippe who had been in the front or were Denmark.
- Feb 24, 2014
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Can't get the right impression about speeds and level of fatigue from air, but looks like Moscon and Alaphilippe were within the reach of the chasers for some time before they've actuall beeny caught. It was just a matter of commitment. The rest of action looks equally confusing.Hellyea said:
Experience played massive role, as already mentioned.
- Nov 16, 2013
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Echoes said:SKSemtex said:Will you be so tolerant, when Sagan crash next time and use this kind of sticky bottle? FOR SURE YES.
I have never said anything about a rider that is not worth for another one, so stop it now. I'm coherent, I'm not a hypocrite. It's happened at the last Paris-Roubaix already but some among the Sagan fan community would rather see Van Avermaet doing it ...
It's a funny coherence that which antagonises riders who use the slipstream of other riders but lauds those who freewheel by getting lifts by vehicles.
Apparently it all comes down to draft (big no-no) versus contact forces (be my guest). Who would have known?
- Nov 16, 2013
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Re: Re:
Ha, I didn't even think of that
That is a good point but do you really believe they could/would have come to an agreement of cooperating with a kilometer remaining? I don't think that is even remotely realistic, although I agree that it would be the best thing to do in order to remain in contention.
AQETUYIOI said:
Ha, I didn't even think of that
That is a good point but do you really believe they could/would have come to an agreement of cooperating with a kilometer remaining? I don't think that is even remotely realistic, although I agree that it would be the best thing to do in order to remain in contention.
- Mar 17, 2012
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Hellyea said:
aaargh, he was just wheelsucking some guys trying to bridge
Now irony off, he did today what he needed to do. I have posted this earlier, but Sagan somehow gets his head straight for the WC. And has the correct amount of luck too. It seems like someone just wants him in that jersey and is pulling the strings
And the mayhem that has been spilt on his head after the race, one can only shake his head. On the both sides, fans or haters theres so much hypocracy that it's got really ridiculous.
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