SeriousSam said:
Even Armstrong's level wasn't constant. There was up and down as well. ilc is on to something here. There is quite a deep reason behind this too, it's called regression to the mean. For instance, if one had known that Nibali's 2014 wasn't an upwards trend likely to continue but the very maximum of performance he is capable of under ideal condition, it was never going to be likely that he would have the same level the year after. The extraordinary (best form ever) is more likely to be followed by the ordinary (average form for that rider) than by the extraordinary (best form ever once again).
Of course, it also wasn't likely that Nibal would get dropped by 40 riders up a short hill.
Going back to Froome's prospects, I do think he'll suffer from worse form sooner or later. But his huge advantage is that in addition to being the best climber, his edge in time trialling is even greater, and there is nothing like time trials to guarantee time gaps. It's more reliable than climbing, and though Froome hasn't time trialled well in a long time, it just wasn't necessary. If he can regain his 2013 level, and there is no reason why he can't, he will be the clear favourite for any Tour, regardless of route , for years to come.
Froome the best climber, Did you watch the tour ,,,he got his as£ kicked in the mountains.
He got his as£ kicked at the Vuelta in the mountains ,,,,how his he the best climber? There is no evidence for that whatsoever. No wind split, no tour win.
He has regained his 2013 level ...he got dropped twice in 2013 have you forgot?
How will he win another tour? if its a mountain loaded tour Quintana ,Bertie [fit] will beat him.
He will need a long tt to get major time on Quintana but he wont get time, if any on Bertie who has beat him in the last 2 tt's they have raced.