Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

This should shed more light on the prevalence of the virus. ETA, broken link fixed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240986079664181250

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisInKnox/status/1240986079664181250

 

[Nirvana]

9/10 ICU patients die?

Also why did I originally type UCI

87% of people die without even having the possibility to reach the intensive care, a lot still at home because the wait for an ambulance after a respiratory crisis (ARDS) is too long to be saved. And they also note that the number of deaths could be bigger because when they die at home parents say to the ambulance to not come anymore and there is no one to rescue the corpse.

 

[Nirvana]

Regarding the count of the deaths at home (and retiremen houses) already a couple of days ago the mayor of Bergamo said that they are a lot and they aren't even tested post mortem due to the lack of people to do that.

Per i sindaci del Bergamasco i morti sono molti di più di quelli ufficiali

"Tantissimi" gli anziani che muoiono in casa o nelle residenze assistite e non rientrano nel computo perché non si esegue il tampone post mortem

www.agi.it

 

[Red Rick]

Regarding the count of the deaths at home (and retiremen houses) already a couple of days ago the mayor of Bergamo said that they are a lot and they aren't even tested post mortem due to the lack of people to do that.

Per i sindaci del Bergamasco i morti sono molti di più di quelli ufficiali

"Tantissimi" gli anziani che muoiono in casa o nelle residenze assistite e non rientrano nel computo perché non si esegue il tampone post mortem

www.agi.it

Bergamo is a few days ahead of the rest of northern Italy and a week or two ahead of the rest of Italy?

 

[Nirvana]

Bergamo is a few days ahead of the rest of northern Italy and a week or two ahead of the rest of Italy?

Hard to say but at the moment is the most affected area, there are some small towns north of the city with 4.000/5.000 inhabitants that have registered already more than 100 official deaths (so probably more) when generally they have less in a whole year. The closer to that probably is Brescia but also Piacenza in Emilia and Pesaro in the Marche considering the lower population are in similar situations.

Outside of Italy also the Madrid area in Spain is probably coming close, yesterday Rai News reported that in the city of Madrid alone there was a death every 16 minutes and today looks worse with already over 200 deaths by midday in Spain.

 

[spalco]

This should shed more light on the prevalence of the virus. ETA, broken link fixed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240986079664181250

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisInKnox/status/1240986079664181250

What are we looking at here?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Basically, this new assay would allow retrospective testing of people's blood to determine if they had been infected by COVID-19. Serology is like medical archeology. You can look through your past infections because after every one you will raise antibodies specific to the particular pathogen. People who get a flu vaccine develop neutralizing antibodies to the flu proteins. People infected with COVID-19 will raise antibodies to its envelope proteins. These antibodies last much longer than viral RNA, so everybody who wasn't tested and eventually recovered can now confirm if what they had was COVID-19 or not. This will be essential as we start to return to normalcy over the next year to determine who is protected and who is still vulnerable to ensuing waves of infection. And it will give a better indication of what percentage of the population was infected in the first place and give some indication of how durable that protection is. It is also how scientists determined that swine flu infected about 1/5 of the population of developed countries.

The assay can be very quick, a pregnancy test is a variant of an ELISA for instance. It also can be high throughput to test many samples at once. It is also safer to lab personnel because they aren't dealing with infectious material. As MI has noted upthread, it is not ideal to diagnose new infections, because it is a lagging indicator as the graph above shows. It complements the existing tests, but would not replace them.

 

[Red Rick]

Apparently we're running super low on certain reactants required for testing. We were gonna buy them from somebody, but everyone's buying everything right now.

200 IQ move to just rely on buying that shite elsehwere. Basic chemicals. Masks. Ventilators. Just *** genius.

 

[Nomad]

Some interesting medical information from the Italian National Institute of Health on the large number of deaths in Italy:

"99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says"

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

"The average age of those who’ve died from the virus in Italy is 79.5"

"All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions."

48.5% had 3 or more illnesses.

25.1% had 2 other illnesses.

75% had hypertension

35% had diabetes.

33% had heart disease.

"People with diabetes face a higher chance of experiencing serious complications from COVID-19."

Diabetes and Coronavirus | American Diabetes Association

www.diabetes.org

99% of the deceased have pre-existing pathologies, half with 3 or more illnesses.

Explains a lot - a devastating virus to the sickly, unhealthy older populations.

 

[Nirvana]

Apparently we're running super low on certain reactants required for testing. We were gonna buy them from somebody, but everyone's buying everything right now.

200 IQ move to just rely on buying that shite elsehwere. Basic chemicals. Masks. Ventilators. Just *** genius.

Here they just sold 500.000 test kits to the USA with some regions running out of them...

 

[djpbaltimore]

Bad sunburns by the looks of it. Beaches are now closed in Florida. So, that should put a dent in the party.

I spoke too soon. Only beaches in two counties in the state are closed. Unbelievably, the rest are still open.

Echoing the graphs Jagar posted the other day. Seems to be the consensus thinking. Not to open a new can of worms, but women generally have better immune responses than men on average. Same with young people compared to old people. These mortality numbers all make sense that we are dealing with a novel virus with no pre-existing immunity.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1241035508895166464

View: https://twitter.com/Yamiche/status/1241035508895166464

 

[Rollthedice]

627 deaths in the last 24h in Italy.

 

[Red Rick]

627 deaths in the last 24h in Italy.

Almost 6,000 new cases.

It might seem like the exponential increase is slowing down, but it could also be a limit in testing or a result of clustering. i.e. The most explosive clusters in places like Bergamo are not keeping up the same spread cause that population is starting to be saturated.

 

[jmdirt]

If they are in groups (and cyclists almost always are) it's not so different from having a party in a backyard and the same works for people that use the dog as an excuse to meet with others. With a person alone, except some extreme cases like runners escaped in the woods or people that walked 20 kms both police and the army have closed an eye or even two until now but is becoming a problem if almost half of the population is still around and the virus continues to spread.

Yesterday both the Protezione Civile and the Lombardia government said that after almost two weeks of lockdown they were expecting to see at least a minor effect not a continuous increase helped by a lot of people that are violating the measures and for this reason they are asking the government to make strictier ones.

You must be referring to the skinny tire crowd! I've been riding solo everyday which is my M.O. anyway. Riding is what keeps my crazy at bey in the best of times so now its even more important. I do ride with a (rotating) group of friends on Saturday in the summer, and ride 2-3 times a month with a good friend, but mostly its just me and my scrambled brain. And there's another episode of "All About Me".

EDIT: I was disappointed/mad at the number of people congregating on the lower trails today. Large groups of people standing at the trail heads talking/laughing with each other...WTF?! They either don't get it, or don't care. Maybe we need several hundred people to die here before these idiot sh*ts get it or start to care.

 

[Rollthedice]

France: There are now 12,612 confirmed cases and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50 % under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.

 

[Red Rick]

France: There are now 12,612 confirmed cases and 450 deaths. Of the deaths, 87% were aged over 70 years old. There are 5,226 people in hospital, 35% of them over 65 years old: 1,297 of these are in intensive care, 50 % under 60 years old. 1,587 have been released from hospital.

Seems to me a lot of elderly don't even make it to ICU? Or at least the survival rate of u60s is decent as long as they get the treatment they need. IIRC 75% of the Dutch deaths until a few days ago were basically people in such bad general health they didn't even bring them to the ICU

 

[djpbaltimore]

Almost 6,000 new cases.

It might seem like the exponential increase is slowing down, but it could also be a limit in testing or a result of clustering. i.e. The most explosive clusters in places like Bergamo are not keeping up the same spread cause that population is starting to be saturated.

Then there are places like Lodi where the numbers do seem to have bent (Figure s3). I read that they enacted policies the earliest. I see a parallel between Seattle and NYC. The former enacted policies quickly while the latter did not. The assisted living facility seemed to be an important canary in the coal mine for Washington state. At one point they had similar numbers, but Seattle seems to have bent the curve, while NYC seems poised to be a disaster.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00dfe3677493faa421fc2ea38e295

 

[Nirvana]

Almost 6,000 new cases.

It might seem like the exponential increase is slowing down, but it could also be a limit in testing or a result of clustering. i.e. The most explosive clusters in places like Bergamo are not keeping up the same spread cause that population is starting to be saturated.

Milan is a bomb ready to explode, today more than 1.500 new cases in the city. After that probably Puglia, they are talking now on Sky and cases of people related to the ones escaped from Milan are ramping up. Anyway there are likely more infected not detected, especially in Milan.

 

[Red Rick]

Right. So in NL 106 have died, but only 19 died on the ICU. Basically they only put you on ICU if they decide it's worth it, so a bunch of people who could have spent 3 weeks slowly dying or prolonging the inevitable now just die in a regular room.

Call it what you will....

 

[Forever The Best]

670 cases in Turkey ( +311 ) and 9 dead ( +5 ) according to official statements. There are rumours that the real number may be even more.

 

[Red Rick]

670 cases in Turkey ( +311 ) and 9 dead ( +5 ) according to official statements. There are rumours that the real number may be even more.

Outside Asia the real numbers likely way, way more and the real question is by what amount we should multiply it.

 

[aphronesis]

Then there are places like Lodi where the numbers do seem to have bent (Figure s3). I read that they enacted policies the earliest. I see a parallel between Seattle and NYC. The former enacted policies quickly while the latter did not. The assisted living facility seemed to be an important canary in the coal mine for Washington state. At one point they had similar numbers, but Seattle seems to have bent the curve, while NYC seems poised to be a disaster.

https://osf.io/fd4rh/?view_only=c2f00dfe3677493faa421fc2ea38e295

We’ll see how the weekend goes. People panicked at the beginning of the week then many relaxed and acted stupid the last two days but now we’re going to semi-lockdown and there’s a more responsible approach from many people.

Weiterleitungshinweis

www.google.com

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6819-covid-19-response-plan/d367f758bec47cad361f/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

Coronavirus Could Overwhelm U.S. Without Urgent Action, Estimates Say (Published 2020)

Immediate steps to limit social contact in parts of the United States where few cases have been identified are needed to slow the outbreak, a model suggests.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Forever The Best]

Outside Asia the real numbers likely way, way more and the real question is by what amount we should multiply it.

There are rumours of some peoples' death reason being classified as respiratory system problems instead of coronavirus. And there are probably many infected people. The situation probably looks as bad as Italy or even worse, 670 cases since 13 March and in 10 days I expect the numbers to shoot up drastically.

 

[sir fly]

A word on the source...
A foul scoff was blamed.
Really?
A spell's been cast on Chinese

View: https://youtu.be/mLKmNSOrQ1Q

Does the bat sound reasonable?

 

[Koronin]

Apparently NY is getting more tests. Officially the US has 16,272 cases and 211 deaths (last numbers I heard about a half hour ago). The US still has a lack of testing in most areas so take the numbers how you wish. It appears that after Gov Cuomo sent out a plea for anyone who can make masks and other items needed in the medical community for this and it's been reported that several NYC fashion designers have reached out offering to have their staffs of sewers who are at home due to the stay at home laws are available to start making these. Hopefully that will at least help on the masks side of things. I suspect they could help with the smock things as well.