Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

Is what we're seeing now a 2nd wave or a continuation of the first wave? Could this virus have mutated with much more younger people now getting sick to the point of requiring hospitalization with some in ICUs?

It's looking like March all over again with some states heading right into lockdown mode (Arizona, California & Texas have made some bold moves).

This is insane and we haven't even reached the fall yet when the anticipated 2nd wave is supposed to hit.

It's still the first wave. It never lessened it just migrated to different areas.

Also there an article I read in June that was talking about the fact that the virus hasn't really mutated much, which is why the vaccines if they work will work for the virus.

 

[Merckx index]

In case there wasn't enough to worry about, China now reports that there is a new strain of swine flu--which infected about 60 million Americans, though thankfully with a low mortality rate, in 2011--found among pigs, and that some of the workers in this industry have it. The virus is considered to have "pandemic potential", though to date, there's no evidence of human-to-human transmission. Of course, that's what the Chinese said about SARS-CoV-2 initially, too. This strain of virus has been around several years, and has been monitored closely.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/30/asia/china-swine-flu-pandemic-intl-hnk-scli-scn/index.html

 

[jmdirt]

Boise mayor just signed a mandate to wear masks in public places inside and out (sidewalks, city parks...).

 

[Koronin]

It appears that Santa Monica and West Hollywood are going to start fining people for not wearing masks/face coverings

 

[Merckx index]

Boise mayor just signed a mandate to wear masks in public places inside and out (sidewalks, city parks...).

It appears that Santa Monica and West Hollywood are going to start fining people for not wearing masks/face coverings

Texas governor has now mandated masks in most public places (counties with > 20 cases), after earlier saying he couldn't. I saw an interview with a conservative supporter of Trump who acknowledged that some people who opposed masks on political principle are now coming around. Yeah, faced with rising cases and the alternative of returning to lockdowns, masks look pretty good.

 

[Koronin]

Texas governor has now mandated masks in most public places (counties with > 20 cases), after earlier saying he couldn't. I saw an interview with a conservative supporter of Trump who acknowledged that some people who opposed masks on political principle are now coming around. Yeah, faced with rising cases and the alternative of returning to lockdowns, masks look pretty good.

I only worry it may be too late in some areas. The county in NC I live in is ok on numbers, but one of the counties next door is in bad shape.

 

[movingtarget]

It's still the first wave. It never lessened it just migrated to different areas.

Also there an article I read in June that was talking about the fact that the virus hasn't really mutated much, which is why the vaccines if they work will work for the virus.

Yes I have read that many researchers are saying the same. It's fairly stable and doesn't mutate much but the contagion factor is obviously the issue as it seems to be more infectious than most other similar viruses. Which is why the medical fraternity keep hammering away with the social distancing messaging to mixed effect !

 

[Koronin]

Yes I have read that many researchers are saying the same. It's fairly stable and doesn't mutate much but the contagion factor is obviously the issue as it seems to be more infectious than most other similar viruses. Which is why the medical fraternity keep hammering away with the social distancing messaging to mixed effect !

I'm going with it's a good thing it's stable. Unfortunately it is highly contagious. Hopefully the medical community finds more options to help with it.

 

[dusty red roads]

Just a small update from Japan - before we reopened Tokyo's daily new cases were under 20, the last two days - some weeks later, just over 100. Numbers have been slowly rising, though the recent 3 digit figures have been said to have been due to more cluster testing in night clubs (young people are testing positive, assuming this means asymptomatic, since they'd have to otherwise be pretty sick to be able to get tested. The Tokyo governor is up for re-election in a week, and after being so vocal (once the Olympics were off the cards) has been pretty quiet. Once she's re-elected maybe she'll become more vocal again.
Now it seems the gvt is taking a new tact - comments below the article elude to this not necessarily the best decision:

As coronavirus cases in Tokyo surge, gov't gives expert advisory panel a makeover

With new coronavirus cases in Tokyo surging to a two-month high, Japan faces the prospect of a second wave without the experts who tackled the first phase of the epidemic. Instead a new panel comprising a Nobel-prize winning geneticist, an artificial intelligence expert and a cardiologist will...

japantoday.com

Let's see what the coming weeks bring.

 

[Jagartrott]

Schools partially reopened in Belgium from mid-May on (face masks for children > 12 years old), and all kindergarten and primary schools (3-12 year olds) opened without social distancing within class groups from early June. I don't know how many children in total, but on a population of 11 million, it must be > 1 million. In those 4-6 weeks, only two cases have been reported for a possible infection occurring within the school, in spite of widespread testing. So it seems that the hypothesis that children not only hardly suffer from corona, but that they also display very limited transmission, is correct.

Which makes it all the crazier that countries like the Philippines have closed schools until a vaccine exists. Children are not the problem. Don't destroy their future.

 

[hrotha]

Losing one academic year is hardly going to destroy their future. If the data from Belgium can be confirmed that is seriously great, but it's not like there's no reason to be extremely cautious here. The Philippines can always go back on its decision if it turns out it's safe after all.

 

[Jagartrott]

Children not in school in low-income countries will result in more children forced into (child) labour, more children not finishing school, and (this is true for all countries) an increase in domestic violence and abuse.

Child labour gains since 2000 ‘could be wiped out by COVID’, UN warns

Huge gains made towards ending child labour over the last 20 years, risk being reversed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the UN said on Friday, in an appeal for governments to continue investing in measures that have helped reduce the number of youngsters working, by 94 million, since 2000.

news.un.org

There are many other examples like Belgium. Denmark, Norway, Switzerland, etc. Children should not be held hostage over this pandemic.

 

[BlueRoads]

Jagartrott, that is a political statement and does not really belong here.
Nonetheless, hrotha, "Losing one academic year is hardly going to destroy their future" is a sentence that is ... well, wrong, I guess you could call it. The Philippines have a complicated school-system, I am not going to comment on that, but in general there are lots of children in the world who do not go to school for 10-12 years, but for max. 5. If you lose one of them - that's huge. For a lot of children school education is the only way to get out of true poverty, girls especially. Jagartrott has written about violence and abuse. There are also lots of children who get sold or have to sell themselves. Education does not erase this, but it's the biggest factor in tackling it.

Also, there are going to be other viruses, other big problems, there already are... bigger ones. Who is supposed to tackle them if not doctors, ingenieurs and so on? In Germany I would almost agree with you, I left out one year and hardly felt it. But that was one of thirteen and I have never had to fight for my life here.

 

[Merckx index]

A major reason vaccines take so long to develop is because when they're tested on a large population, one has to wait long enough to see significant differences between controls and vaccinated subjects. People have to get exposed to the virus, or whatever the vaccine is targeted against. Obviously, none of the subjects wants to be exposed to the virus, but some of them will be.

But this process can be greatly accelerated, with far fewer subjects, in a challenge trial. This involves subjects who in fact do agree to be exposed; they are directly and intentionally infected. If the vaccine protects the subjects, this will be observed immediately.

Researchers say challenge studies would enroll between 15 and 150 participants and would likely yield definitive results in about six weeks. The planned 30,000-person Phase 3 vaccine efficacy trials, which do not involve deliberate infection, are likely to take six months, even on the accelerated timescale sought by Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s crash program to test, manufacture and distribute effective vaccines.

The problem, of course, is that if the vaccine doesn't work, the subject runs the risk of developing the disease. For this reason, challenge trials usually aren't run unless there's a known treatment for the disease. This of course is not yet the case for C19, but nevertheless, some people are indicating they would be willing to volunteer to participate in a challenge trial. Since the vast majority of young people develop. relatively mild symptoms, or no symptoms, they're betting that the risk is low.

Within weeks of establishing a website to recruit potential participants in such trials, 1 Day Sooner had gathered the names of thousands of potential volunteers from 102 countries.

https://www.fredhutch.org/en/news/center-news/2020/06/covid-vaccine-challenge-trials.html

 

[djpbaltimore]

Some researchers in the vaccine center were doing controlled infections with malaria a few years ago. They posted flyers around campus to recruit. The stipend was a few thousand dollars, so finding people to volunteer is not generally a problem for this kind of thing. From what I have heard, it doesn't seem like it will be cleared for covid soon enough to be of practical use.

Koronin mentioned Pfizer upthread. They released a preprint of their vaccine trial.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1278433560978952192

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1278433560978952192

 

[Chris Gadsden]

This just can’t be.


https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study


“In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.

The study was published today in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).

Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.

“The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System, who co-authored the study with Henry Ford epidemiologist Dr. Samia Arshad. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”

Zervos said the potential for a surge in the fall or sooner, and infections continuing worldwide, show an urgency to identifying inexpensive and effective therapies and preventions.”

 

[Keram]

Sweet home Alabama. Oh my got https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...s/alabama-coronavirus-parties-trnd/index.html

 

[Oldermanish]

Sweet home Alabama. Oh my got https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...s/alabama-coronavirus-parties-trnd/index.html

There's another big photo-op party being thrown at the foot of Mt Rushmore tonight that challenges the 'Bama Darwinfest. South Dakota's Governor not only has resisted protective mask/distancing mandates for the events 7,500 projected attendees; the US Forest Service is allowing a massive fireworks display amongst the Ponderosa Pines forest.
What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Keram]

There's another big photo-op party being thrown at the foot of Mt Rushmore tonight that challenges the 'Bama Darwinfest. South Dakota's Governor not only has resisted protective mask/distancing mandates for the events 7,500 projected attendees; the US Forest Service is allowing a massive fireworks display amongst the Ponderosa Pines forest.
What could possibly go wrong?

Well 4th july seems to be another gas in the corona fire. People around the globe started to pretend that corona is gone. That thing in Alabama is just utterly stupid. I hope that nobody in his right mind will not copy this behaviour in any Europe country.

 

[djpbaltimore]

This just can’t be.


https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study


“In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.

The study was published today in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).

Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.

“The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System, who co-authored the study with Henry Ford epidemiologist Dr. Samia Arshad. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”

Zervos said the potential for a surge in the fall or sooner, and infections continuing worldwide, show an urgency to identifying inexpensive and effective therapies and preventions.”

Maybe you missed it, but the NIH and WHO discontinued their trials 2 weeks ago. The Recovery trial from the UK was the final nail in the coffin. Why? Because it was a high powered randomized trial. A smaller, retrospective analysis is not going to change minds. It is over.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1278983816720285696

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1278983816720285696

 

[Unchained]

Carnival and Viking cruise lines say late September for reevaluating first ships setting sail.. Ensenada general hospital set up a military hospital tent in the parking lot to deal with overflow..which looks to be trickling in rather than a flood..most area experts are blaming a lowered guard and father's day for upward trend..
San Diego beaches were pretty empty late Thursday..N Baja has beaches,bars closed..beer is again available but as easy to find as a unicorn.
Baja also put the curfew back in place so empty streets from @8pm to 5am..and cops respond to loud music as a illegal party!!!
Chuckled a bit as more posting about hydroxicloriqine..let go already!!! Yes it fits in the lexicon but it isn't now,never was a wonder drug cure all..
And for Americans,,probably should watch out of country news coverage..not on the virus,,but on others explaining why Americans are not wearing face coverings and testing,which all data old and new shows effective.
Job numbers will be interesting w 40 states showing different levels of acceleration from when the mid-June data was analyzed..also w health insurance set to lapse for millions, evictions and foreclose restrictions set to expire and unemployment benefits set for exhaustion for millions..it is a mystery how the virus will change in the changing and challenging circumstances of the US population..if at all.

 

[Cookster15]

It's still the first wave. It never lessened it just migrated to different areas.

Also there an article I read in June that was talking about the fact that the virus hasn't really mutated much, which is why the vaccines if they work will work for the virus.

I disagree. The case count shows a clear and obvious acceleration which looks like a wave to me. What do you think causes waves of pandemics? I am unconvinced waves are caused by mutation of the virus itself. Even earlier in this thread it was pointed out somewhere that when virus mutate usually they become less lethal as ease of spread is inversely proportional to mortality rate - like Ebola outbreaks in Africa.

What causes a rebound is human factors. Like relaxing restrictions too quickly. From what I have read the Spanish flu 2nd and 3rd waves were caused by human factors not virus mutation. Such as troops returning from the war. An equivalent today would be if international flights resumed, the population became complacent on social distancing or other restrictions relaxed too soon. But of course the economic impacts should not be underestimated as this can potentially kill millions too - wars?

We are all at the mercy of scientists around the world feverishly working to develop and test a vaccine or drug that works such as discussed above. The only other option is herd immunity around the world and that could take years and some say immunity isn't possible anyway as has also been discussed here.

 

[Unchained]

US is still on first wave obviously,as there is no statistical data to show that initial infections were ever substantially stabilized.
Most of the early U.S. Government data has been shown to be completely,utterly inaccurate.
Virus being falsely reported, only 15-20 cases, will attenuate or disappear w increased summer temperature..can't be spread through coincidental contacts in work place or careful social gatherings..and most recently the US government has reported that the virus will simply disappear by itself w no further medical intervention.
also US government officials have said that there is a personal decision to be made on the overall health of the population,that should be made by each individual citizen, if you feel compelled to violate national or locally mandated health codes because of your mood at the moment,that is your personal prerogative..
Those are all official US government stated directives.

 

[BlueRoads]

Folgeschäden von Covid-19: Die grässlichen Narben der Corona-Pandemie

Infektion überlebt, Patient krank? Die Ärzte sorgen sich zunehmend über Folge- und Spätschäden des „Multiorganvirus“. Das gilt auch für junge Patienten.

www.faz.net

only in German, you can try google translate if you care (it's about long term effects)

 

[Merckx index]

Here’s some more information on the Henry Ford study vs. the UK’s Recovery study. The Henry Ford study had a total of 2541 patients, with a death rate of 26.4% in controls. The Recovery study

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/...oquine-in-hospitalised-patients-with-covid-19

examined a total of 4674 patients, with a death rate of controls of 23.5%. So the control patients in the Ford study did a little worse, but not much. But the Recovery HCQ patients had a 25.7% mortality rate, no improvement at all on controls, while in the Ford study, the patients given HCQ had a mortality rate of only 13%. That's the huge difference in results between these two studies. Why?

To begin, the Recovery study was larger (as Baltimore notes), not just in total subjects, but in those given HCQ, 1542 patients. I'm not sure of the number at Ford, but it must be a lot lower, because there were at least four groups: controls; azithromycin (AZ), an antibiotic; HCQ; and HCQ plus AZ. And very curiously, while the mortality rate of patients given AZ alone was reduced relative to controls (22.4%), with a similar reduction observed for HCQ + AZ (20.1%), the patients given only HCQ had a much lower mortality rate. That really doesn’t make sense. Why would HCQ alone be better than giving it along with an antibiotic which, by itself, also reduced mortality rates? There could be several reasons, but the most likely answer is that the differences in these rates aren’t significant, regardless of what their statistics show. This would be the case if the treatments weren’t random, which in fact they weren’t:

Researchers not involved with the study were critical. They noted that the Henry Ford team did not randomly treat patients but selected them for various treatments based on certain criteria.

"As the Henry Ford Health System became more experienced in treating patients with COVID-19, survival may have improved, regardless of the use of specific therapies," Dr. Todd Lee of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and colleagues wrote in a commentary in the same journal.

"Finally, concomitant steroid use in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was more than double the non-treated group. This is relevant considering the recent RECOVERY trial that showed a mortality benefit with dexamethasone." The steroid dexamethasone can reduce inflammation in seriously ill patients.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html

The bottom line is that the Henry Ford study was retrospective (again, as Baltimore notes), meaning that researchers went back after the fact and looked at the results of various treatments. This is a useful approach, it's a way of mining data that are already there, but it's not as scientifically rigorous as a prospective study, like that at Recovery, where patients are given certain treatments by design at the outset. A retrospective study can't control factors like other treatments, as pointed out in the quotes above. You have to take the subjects as they're given to you.

There’s just one other point I want to make, because it’s almost always ignored in discussions of large scale drug studies: individuals may vary markedly in their response to drugs. There are undoubtedly genetic factors at play. Just as an individual 100 years old may survive C19, while someone 30 years old dies, one individual may gain a benefit to a drug that another does not.

Ryan Padgett, a doctor in his early 40s, became infected while treating some of the earliest cases in Washington state back in March. He was near death, and put on an ECMO machine, that removes the patient’s blood, oxygenates it, and pumps it back in. This is basically a treatment of last resort. Then he was given the drug tocilizubab, which is used to reduce the effects of hyper-immune reactions, or “cytokine storm”. He soon began to improve, and eventually recovered. In a recent interview (some time after the linked article), he said he felt that drug saved his life. Would it help everyone? No. But for this patient in this condition, it seemed to make the difference. And by the way, they also tried HCQ, which didn’t help.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/us/coronavirus-doctor-kirkland-padgett.html

Drugs are a matter of playing the percentages. We try to determine whether, on balance, a drug will help or harm someone, but some people may beat the odds, just as they do when they have a relatively mild case when in a high risk group. There may be people who can benefit or have benefitted from HCQ, but the question is whether enough people benefit to balance the negative effects, including increased risk of death. The largest and most rigorous studies that have been carried out indicate that they don't.