Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

What if your workplace is a nursing home? There are places where mandates make more sense than others.

 

[BlueRoads]

Hospital admission is 'part and parcel' of having an unvaccinated cohort - But where do people most often catch COVID - In home environments and out of work environments - Unvaccinated people ( with the precautions I listed in my previous post ) pose little or no risk to the vaccinated in a work place - It makes no sense to stop people from working.

Well, wherever they catch it, they catch it, and according to all the doctors working there they make up the biggest part of the people winding up in hospitals. And that causes a problem. We already have 2G (only vaccinated and recovered) in many places, like restaurants, at least in parts of the country - so far it just didn't help much, because people just avoided going anywhere public (apart from work) and only met in private - so of course you can put a lockdown for the unvaccinated in place - don't meet with more than one person if you are unvaccinated, but to control that is virtually impossible if you do not have a kind of surveillance or police state.

 

[Cookster15]

In general I'm really against making vaccinations mandatory. And I didn't think they would happen. But I have to admit that at the moment I don't see any real, possible alternatives for a country like ours. There just aren't enough people vaccinated. So the hospitals will be overrun in more or less time, but it will happen. Then there are only two possibilities: you have to deny people life-saving treatment, whether they need it because of Covid or heart attacks or accidents, because the hospitals are simply full. Or you have another lockdown - we are already starting that again, clubs and pubs have to close, christmas markets are cancelled, etc. The next step will be another real lockdown, that, in my eyes, is pure madness, when we do have vaccinations who, if every adult was vaccinated, would make sure the hospitals aren't overwhelmed.
Our legislation doesn't allow for denying people treatment in hospitals because they are unvaccinated and I think a much bigger change of it would be needed than for a vaccination obligation.
So, just looking at it from a pragmatic side: what are our other options? Either much, much bigger ICUs would help, but it would take years (apart from the money) to make that happen (in Germany probably decades... )
Or you say okay, then we just have a triage and the doctors decide who's going to get treatment and who won't, or if the ICUs are full and you have an accident, well bad luck for you.

Why do you think not enough people in Germany are vaccinated?

I keep referring back to the UK. The UK opened up on July 19 at just 60% fully vaccinated. Their hospitals coped fine and continue to cope fine. There were predictions that UK daily cases would reach over 100,000 / day. The reality is about 40,000 / day. Who was held accountable for this massive error?

How the UK is opening up in the face of 100,000 daily cases, while Australia remains locked down

www.9news.com.au

There appears to be some problems with overly pessimistic assumptions used in modelling and this isn't being widely discussed or challenged?

 

[yaco]

What if your workplace is a nursing home? There are places where mandates make more sense than others.

It does not matter if you have procedures in place - So for a nursing home it would be a PP, regular PCR tests etc - You do realise that it's just as likely that a vaccinated person can bring the virus into the centre.

 

[BlueRoads]

Why do you think not enough people in Germany are vaccinated?

I keep referring back to the UK. The UK opened up on July 19 at just 60% fully vaccinated. Their hospitals coped fine and continue to cope fine. There were predictions that UK daily cases would reach over 100,000 / day. The reality is about 40,000 / day. Who was held accountable for this massive error?

How the UK is opening up in the face of 100,000 daily cases, while Australia remains locked down

www.9news.com.au

There appears to be some problems with overly pessimistic assumptions used in modelling and this isn't being widely discussed or challenged?

I don't know, depends on what you call "coping fine", I guess. Maybe we are spoilt with the German system, which certainly has its flaws, but all in all is reliable and extensive. I know the English are proud of their free for all NHS, and I don't want to offend anyone, but in my eyes the system is quite a disgrace for a country of that general living standard, and covid has certainly made it even a lot worse.
My personal experience with the NHS and that of someone close who lived there for many years is devastating. If you call an ambulance you have to wait for ages. Examinations which are normal here aren't done there, usually you go to the doctor and the doctor gives you ibuprofen... Okay, there is talk about "overcare" and too many unnecessary examinations in Germany, like ultrasound and x-rays... so that probably needs to be considered. But my take still is that if you call an ambulance, one should come immediately. There should always be enough hospital beds so that nobody is considered not endangered enough when there is a danger.

 

[search]

Why do you think not enough people in Germany are vaccinated?

I keep referring back to the UK. The UK opened up on July 19 at just 60% fully vaccinated.

Per capita, the UK have had ~double the amount of covid cases and deaths, compared to Germany. So their infection-induced immunity rate is considerably higher, and a way bigger percantage of the usual risk groups have already died.

They are at a different state of the pandemic. Germany is probably like one Winter behind, and consequently would need a higher vaccination rate to make up for that. Australia of course is another, completely different story.

 

[roundabout]

I think the whole 100k/40k cases per day in the UK thing was just a simple example of expectations management so that any case rate below 100k per day can be seen as things going ok.

 

[Keram]

Leaders of strongest oposition party which was 12 years at lead here in Slovakia from 2006 to 2020 with small break, right now kicking to vaccines at press conference. I want to vomit right now. Basically vaccines are useles, you have not any imunnity after six months and it not guarantee you health or freedom. Unreal.

 

[limak_]

you have not any imunnity after six months and it not guarantee you health or freedom.

Have you?
And does it guarantee?

 

[BlueRoads]

@limak_ in all seriousness, please don't misunderstand this as a provocation, honest questions because I simply wonder: what are you concerned about? I don't know your age, if you are very young, I may understand you, the advantage of the vaccination may not be so clear in comparison with the dangers, but if you are older: don't you believe the studies that show the statistical advantages of vaccinations compared to the risk that covid holds? Do you think they are manipulated? Are you really afraid of long term consequences? If yes, which could that be? Do you think the risk that covid brings if you get it unvaccinated is lower than the possible side/ long term effects of the vaccination? Or do you think you can avoid an infection?

 

[limak_]

@limak_ in all seriousness, please don't misunderstand this as a provocation, honest questions because I simply wonder: what are you concerned about? I don't know your age, if you are very young, I may understand you, the advantage of the vaccination may not be so clear in comparison with the dangers, but if you are older: (1)don't you believe the studies that show the statistical advantages of vaccinations compared to the risk that covid holds? (2)Do you think they are manipulated? (3)Are you really afraid of long term consequences? If yes, which could that be? (4)Do you think the risk that covid brings if you get it unvaccinated is lower than the possible side/ long term effects of the vaccination? (5)Or do you think you can avoid an infection?

Honest questions, honest answers (I think I've probably answered some of them more or less directly in some previous posts):

1. I belive those studies - I've never said that vaccines don't work and I really belive they're generally a great defence against severe covid symptoms (the posibility of death included)
2. Yes, I think some of those studies are manipulated in favour of the vaccines. And what is more concerning, the mainstream media (most people don't read the studies itself, but only the pieces of information about them spreaded by media) are totally uncritical and very imprecise when talking about them, don't mention about their limitations etc.
3. I'm not very afraid of long term consequences, but also don't entirely exclude the possibility of their occurence.
4. Supposing that I'm older, I'd say the risk that covid brings is probably bigger.
5. I think it's unavoidable.

And I understand why vaccines are pushed that hard, at any cost, why some manipulation to favour the vaccination is used, why vaccinated people are being favoured etc. I understand these, but I just do not agree with this kind of approach, while I'm noticing many dangers and negative outcomes coming from it.

 

[yaco]

The world is using three types of COVID vaccines being

• viral vector
• whole virus
• MRNA

The first two types have been used for many years and appear to have no long term side effects. The MRNA vaccines are new technologies, so we have no data on long-term side affects - My guess is there will be none but we'll have to wait 20 or thirty years.

So in summary, people have no reason not to receive a viral vector or whole virus vaccine, while I can understand some having queries on the mRNA vaccines.

 

[Keram]

Have you?
And does it guarantee?

Well if you have 60+ you low your risk of death 12 times.

 

[Unchained]

I have no issue with countries/states banning the unvaccinated from bars/restaurants etc BUT i draw the line at stopping people from working - Give them extra conditions like twice weekly PCR tests at their expense etc - To stop people working, especially in highly vaccinated places is madness.

This is one of many ethical questions that must be answered in plain language and immediately. In California the winners and losers were picked by the government,under crazy criteria..people were forbidden from working while others were forced to..no middle ground. People should have a right to work,period, and ridiculous standards should not be set to make it impossible.
The other big ethical question is the right to die..die in the parking lot,car waiting,or just out in the streets or on the sidewalk. Government needs to work for the people,government ethics need to reflect the will of the people..so we have been @2 years in and people say no restrictions,no lockdown,no lockout,they need to be listened to,that is the only thing that will galvanize us..doors of clinics and hospitals locked,chained shut w w sign reading,full no room here ,sorry,come back in a few days after some are discharged or dead and maybe we will have a bed. And health care workers,need to take breaks and vaccination, they need to watch cat videos on YouTube and say to patients,I work @8 hours a day, and Covid has been reclassified as a bad condition,sure but not an emergency..I will get to you when I get to you..my latte and scone are getting cold..
there is a strange love triangle with public opinion vs government oversight vs health care professionals data and reality..something has got to yield..on scale, the public and government are bigger so this round we need to see what 100,101,105% capacity looks like for extended periods..in the United States,race and class will solve the problem..if people of means of the higher classes can't get care..the problems will be solved..guy w w heart attack or stroke dies,kids in car crashes can't get bed space,elective surgery is cancelled until further notice..things will change..arguing is not working..got to be physical

 

[roundabout]

Well if you have 60+ you low your risk of death 12 times.

What is the source of that?

Because I am not seeing that in this ONS dataset (see table 4)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fdeathsbyvaccinationstatusengland%2fdeathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021/datasetfinalcorrected3.xlsx

Vaccines do seem to work at least short-term, but it would be good to have some data in support of the numbers.

 

[Keram]

What is the source of that?

Because I am not seeing that in this ONS dataset (see table 4)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fdeathsbyvaccinationstatusengland%2fdeathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021/datasetfinalcorrected3.xlsx

Vaccines do seem to work at least short-term, but it would be good to have some data in support of the numbers.

I cant find it unfortunetely. Cant remember where I read it.

 

[Cookster15]

I am vaccinated and not concerned about being struck by lightening (similar risk of death). I know that polio was almost eliminated from the world due to vaccination - not natural immunity. It is also obvious that vaccination has Covid-19 on the wane right around the world - the measure is hospitalizations and deaths, not cases. Cases are not so relevant now.

Get vaccinated. Stop worrying. Let us all get back to life. Don't get vaccinated and you are doing your part to see this scourge drag on for years.

 

[search]

What is the source of that?

Because I am not seeing that in this ONS dataset (see table 4)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fbirthsdeathsandmarriages%2fdeaths%2fdatasets%2fdeathsbyvaccinationstatusengland%2fdeathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021/datasetfinalcorrected3.xlsx

Vaccines do seem to work at least short-term, but it would be good to have some data in support of the numbers.

Table 4 is for all deaths, Covid-related or not - so it's table 3 you're referring to, I guess?

As far as I can see, it show's sth around factor 5 instead for England?!

 

[djpbaltimore]

It does not matter if you have procedures in place - So for a nursing home it would be a PP, regular PCR tests etc - You do realise that it's just as likely that a vaccinated person can bring the virus into the centre.

I disagree. It is definitely possible that a vaccinated person can bring in the virus, but it is less likely than the unvaccinated. Based on personal experience, ppe is not very good within the nursing facility i visit. There is also no mandate. Reading between the lines, I think they fear an exodus if they draw a hard line. My workplace has a mandate because they know they can replace anybody who leaves.

Testing may seem like compromise, but notice how much the unvaccinated claim 'discrimination' when they have to do anything that the vaccinated do not. Most medical careers require HBV vaccines. I fail to see why a c19 vaccination would be a dealbreaker.

 

[Koronin]

Make of this report what you will but it sounds encouraging.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/experimental-chewing-gum-may-reduce-183353601.html

 

[yaco]

I disagree. It is definitely possible that a vaccinated person can bring in the virus, but it is less likely than the unvaccinated. Based on personal experience, ppe is not very good within the nursing facility i visit. There is also no mandate. Reading between the lines, I think they fear an exodus if they draw a hard line. My workplace has a mandate because they know they can replace anybody who leaves.

Testing may seem like compromise, but notice how much the unvaccinated claim 'discrimination' when they have to do anything that the vaccinated do not. Most medical careers require HBV vaccines. I fail to see why a c19 vaccination would be a dealbreaker.

You are discussing one small part of the work sector and as you pointed out mandatory vaccine varies from state to state and country to country - And as you also pointed out the virus can be brought into any type of workplace which can be mitigated by safety staandards - Ultimately, people should not be denied the chance to work by Government's

 

[Cookster15]

Per capita, the UK have had ~double the amount of covid cases and deaths, compared to Germany. So their infection-induced immunity rate is considerably higher, and a way bigger percantage of the usual risk groups have already died.

They are at a different state of the pandemic. Germany is probably like one Winter behind, and consequently would need a higher vaccination rate to make up for that. Australia of course is another, completely different story.

Been thinking about this...

I disagree that countries are at different stages of the pandemic that implies the worst is yet to come for countries like Germany or Australia, I disagree with that. It really got started in early 2020 and that's plenty of time - you can check World-o-meter.

But I agree that the immunity rate is affected by exposure to the virus. You make a good point about the relative experiences of the UK and Germany. Also for Australia we are a geographically isolated country and closing the international border was easy and done early. This likely saved thousands of lives (the border is still closed). But as you point out that approach also means a lower infection-induced immunity rate. Hence a higher vaccination rate is required to open up safely compared to say the UK or US.

Also, on the bigger percentage of risk groups which have already died, the numbers of remaining citizens in those usual risk groups are still very large. What made the difference is we learned by experience. Older people know they are most at risk. Procedures and policies around aged care are greatly tightened. In early 2020 it was not yet known that the elderly were at such risk. But I do think the virus itself has mutated into a more transmissible but less virulent version. All the stats seem to confirm this.

 

[search]

I disagree that countries are at different stages of the pandemic that implies the worst is yet to come for countries like Germany or Australia, I disagree with that. It really got started in early 2020 and that's plenty of time - you can check World-o-meter.

But I agree that the immunity rate is affected by exposure to the virus. You make a good point about the relative experiences of the UK and Germany. Also for Australia we are a geographically isolated country and closing the international border was easy and done early. This likely saved thousands of lives (the border is still closed). But as you point out that approach also means a lower infection-induced immunity rate. Hence a higher vaccination rate is required to open up safely compared to say the UK or US.

Also, on the bigger percentage of risk groups which have already died, the numbers of remaining citizens in those usual risk groups are still very large. What made the difference is we learned by experience. Older people know they are most at risk. Procedures and policies around aged care are greatly tightened. In early 2020 it was not yet known that the elderly were at such risk. But I do think the virus itself has mutated into a more transmissible but less virulent version. All the stats seem to confirm this.

yeah, I didn't mean to say "the worst is still to come" - the circumstances are obviously completely different now compared to last year, and allowing to be way more lenient - but I still think the situation differs, from state to state.

There's been a (pre-print) study out last week about it by the way (I just stumbled across today), which calculated the potential burden left for European countries, based on the vaccination- and past infection rate per age group:

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.10.21266166v1.full.pdf

It's probably not 100% accurate of course because of estimations used for potential breakthrough infections, dark figures and so on, but it shows quite well that a country like Germany is still at significant more risk than England

 

[djpbaltimore]

You are discussing one small part of the work sector and as you pointed out mandatory vaccine varies from state to state and country to country - And as you also pointed out the virus can be brought into any type of workplace which can be mitigated by safety staandards - Ultimately, people should not be denied the chance to work by Government's

Ultimately, I wish people would volunteer to do the right thing without a mandate. But, I am not surprised that the US is stalling around 60%. I thought Europe would do better.

Looking at these numbers and it is really hard to imagine that more than 60% of US adults get the vaccine. All the metrics are starting to improve and I think the majority of the leaners in gray ultimately opt out as a result. I think Gottlieb is right that fewer people will get the vaccine than most people hoped.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359502384775405568

View: https://twitter.com/APNORC/status/1359502384775405568

 

[Jagartrott]

Interesting article, mostly about the importance of boosters:

Client Challenge

A related twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1463450302212886530