Critérium du Dauphiné 2012 stage 4, 53.5km, Villié-Morgon-Bourg-en-Bresse, ITT

[hatcher]

This:



2009 Tour TT Wiggo didn't go as well as was expected.
2011 Vuelta TT was stage 11/12? and was probably the worse TT Wiggo rode all season - look at the gap to Tony M. that day compared with how close the two had been throughout the season.

His 2010 TT results with respect to strong TT performance when in contention for GC are irrelevant.

2009 he finished 6th; 40 seconds behind Cancellara and Contador. And Cancellara wasn't even racing for GC! He beat Evans, Kloden, Armstrong, Menchov, Martin, Zabriskie; some of whom were riding GC, other who weren't (which satisfies both of Pistolero's contradictions). In what world does that support a suggestion of Wiggins being a weak 3rd week TTer?

2011 Vuelta was stage 10, not 3rd week.

I agree with you both that there is no evidence that Wiggins is a weak 3rd week TTer.

 

[Magnus]

286m. It's right there.

A little bit offtopic, but still regards altitude and Dauphine region. Why Tour always put Madeleine with 2000m when everywhere else it's 1993m. Anybody?

It says so on the sign:

Ambiguity about altitudes is hardly uncommon (don't even get me started on the whole Bonnette-Restefond situation).

 

[hatcher]

since wiggins was almost finishing with the autobus on the last mountain stage of the tour, that itt really isn't a sign of good recuperation, if he had been giving his best on the last mountain stages then it would be.

he also road with better wind condition then the last guys and for example still only put 20 seconds on menchov.

Again, the burden is on those saying he has BAD recuperation. Someone point to a single piece of evidence for me.

 

[Winterfold]

I refuse to believe you could contradict yourself so badly in such a short post.

Trololol - this is El Pistrollero you're talking to. Logic is an inconvenience when there is dogma to be upheld

Wiggins has defied the armchair experts on this forum for 18 months now - I expect him to continue to do so - although as Cuddles is also similarly immune to the views of the Interwebz this doesn't make the situation in July any clearer.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

No one on earth could feel like this
I'm thrown and overflown with bliss
There must be an angel
Playing with my heart

I walk into an empty room
And suddenly my heart goes boom
It's an orchestra of angels
And they're playing with my heart
(Must be talking to an angel)

No one on earth could feel like this
I'm thrown and overflown with bliss
There must be an angel
Playing with my heart

And when I think that I'm alone
It seems there's more of us at home
It's a multitude of angels
And they're playing with my heart

I must be hallucinating
Watching angels celebrating
Could this be reactivating
All my senses dislocating
This must be a strange deception
By celestial intervention
Leavin' me the recollection
Of your heavenly connection

 

[Dedelou]

2009 he finished 6th; 40 seconds behind Cancellara and Contador. And Cancellara wasn't even racing for GC! He beat Evans, Kloden, Armstrong, Menchov, Martin, Zabriskie; some of whom were riding GC, other who weren't (which satisfies both of Pistolero's contradictions). In what world does that support a suggestion of Wiggins being a weak 3rd week TTer?

2011 Vuelta was stage 10, not 3rd week.

I agree with you both that there is no evidence that Wiggins is a weak 3rd week TTer.

Is it safe to say that if at age 32 he has not yet won an single 3 weeks races, we can conclude without having to sweat much statistic that the dude is not that good in GT, and then we can wait to see if this year he has finally changed.

 

[Tigerion]

Oh yeah... I guess I gotta get some glasses. Either way the altitude difference b/w 286 and 266 seems much more on that profile than between 266 and the finish - 225.

As for the race - well, we knew it was gonna be another win TT - win the race sort of deal, so a much more interesting subplot will be how Evans/Sanchez/Menchov perform, because they should be gaining some form before the Tour now, so if they suck - it's a bad sign

I think Sammie will have a fair excuse if he isn't on top form for this one

 

[karlboss]

This will be a test for everyone, but not the same kind, some wlil be finding out how they do at 100% and others at lower than 100%.
For example what will a Schleck success/fail look like?
Same goes for all the favourites.

I expect something similar to last year, Martin Wiggins at the head of affairs, Evans and Menchov 1 to 2 minutes off the pace. i think Nibali is the kind of guy who'll over exert himself and be up with Evans, Menchov. Samu, impressed everyday he keeps riding. Schleck...anything within 6 minutes of the winner will be a success. I expect Schleck in the break for joux plane.

 

[PCutter]

Bavarianrider - It's naughty to use old pointy helmet pix

You can draw a straight line thru wiggos hips and shoulders - Martin creates so much power he can get away with a less good position (that doesn't mean it's in anyway 'bad'). Or could - remind me how many time he has beaten Wiggo this year again?

I noticed this in highlights from the Prologue. There's been a very big change in Wiggo's TT position of late, and Richie Porte has a very similar position (which also used to be more rounded) so it must be down to whoever's coaching TT at Sky (Axel???).

Regardless, just go with this guy, so powerful he doesn't even need to be aero
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/criterium-du-dauphine-2012/prologue-itt/photos/225484

...but maybe next year. This will be his longest ITT to date.

 

[The Hitch]

I could not care less about your precious Contador..

That's a tad unfair. looking back through the discussion it was you who introduced contador into.it when talking about the 2010 tt. pisti was merely continuing the discussion you started.

 

[ElChingon]

You can banter on all you want about who's going to win it or not but the real question is who can pick the Schleck Line for this stage. I know its early still but the guessing must begin.

I will start it out at 102, can't quite possibly improve on the last Schleck Line, the race commisianars (sp?) should DQ anyone beyond that line.

 

[will10]

I noticed this in highlights from the Prologue. There's been a very big change in Wiggo's TT position of late, and Richie Porte has a very similar position (which also used to be more rounded) so it must be down to whoever's coaching TT at Sky (Axel???).

Regardless, just go with this guy, so powerful he doesn't even need to be aero
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/criterium-du-dauphine-2012/prologue-itt/photos/225484

...but maybe next year. This will be his longest ITT to date.

If the AIS is anything to go by, Durbridge's position is probably as optimised as anyone.

Is it safe to say that if at age 32 he has not yet won an single 3 weeks races, we can conclude without having to sweat much statistic that the dude is not that good in GT, and then we can wait to see if this year he has finally changed.

Same as that Evans bloke who hadn't won one until he was 34 then?

 

[will10]

You can banter on all you want about who's going to win it or not but the real question is who can pick the Schleck Line for this stage. I know its early still but the guessing must begin.

I will start it out at 102, can't quite possibly improve on the last Schleck Line, the race commisianars (sp?) should DQ anyone beyond that line.

Today is difficult to call but if tomorrow's Schleck line is three figures it will be hilarious.

 

[iZnoGouD]

Tiago Machado has a good shot at this

 

[DenisMenchov]

Tiago Machado has a good shot at this

You certainly don't lack optimism.

 

[JA.Tri]

This will be a test for everyone, but not the same kind, some wlil be finding out how they do at 100% and others at lower than 100%.
For example what will a Schleck success/fail look like?
Same goes for all the favourites.

I expect something similar to last year, Martin Wiggins at the head of affairs, Evans and Menchov 1 to 2 minutes off the pace. i think Nibali is the kind of guy who'll over exert himself and be up with Evans, Menchov. Samu, impressed everyday he keeps riding. Schleck...anything within 6 minutes of the winner will be a success. I expect Schleck in the break for joux plane.

"thumbs up"

Nice post.

Really is a lottery, and our perception may bear no resemblance to the rider's/ds' assessment of their ride/s.

 

[greenedge]

I shall say Martin then Wiggins.

I think Durbridge or Chavanel will get 3rd> 4th. Evans to get 5th and Brajkovic 6th.

 

[TeoSheva]

I thing Rogers will be the favourite for the 3rd place
Nibali to do well to...

 

[Fidolix]

1. Martin

2. Durbridge

3. Evans

4. Grivko

5. Millar

 

[TeoSheva]

1. Martin

2. Durbridge

3. Evans

4. Grivko

5. Millar

so Wiggo out of the top5?

 

[Froome19]

so Wiggo out of the top5?

Due to him wearing the Yellow jersey without the aerodynamics

 

[dlwssonic]

1 Martin
2 wiggo
3 durbridge

evans somewhere behind in the top 10.

 

[Wilba60]

I thing Rogers will be the favourite for the 3rd place
Nibali to do well to...

Turbo seems to have gained the upper hand over Mick but this will be the longest TT Durbridge has ever done, so that will be interesting. Not sure if their last meeting was in the Australian TT which was over 38km but that was back in January.

Good mix of Aussies in the hunt for top 10/20 finishes with Durbridge, Rogers, Porte, Evans and possibly Gerrans.

 

[cineteq]

1 Martin
2 wiggo
3 durbridge

evans somewhere behind in the top 10.

Your brain must be fuming after thinking that hard LOL.
How about
1. Evans
2. Durbridge
3. Nibali

PS: I trust Cadel better that you do

 

[dlwssonic]

Your brain must be fuming after thinking that hard LOL.
How about
1. Evans
2. Durbridge
3. Nibali

PS: I trust Cadel better that you do

that's just impossible.....
I like your faith in cadel
If that really happens, I will be the happiest man on earth.