Giulio Ciccone thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He's never done a 25k+ TT while actually going for GC though. Not saying he isn't a bad time trialist (he is), but you'd think he won't do that horribly when he actually has a reason to try.

That's what i said. "I'm sure he could improve, especially with some motivation" but to assume he won't lose "that many minutes" in 70k of TT seems more like wishful thinking than a realistic projection of his TT capabilities. Of course "many" is subjective, but i can't imagine him losing less than 5 minutes on at least one other GC candidate other than Evenepoel and Roglic.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

That's what i said. "I'm sure he could improve, especially with some motivation" but to assume he won't lose "that many minutes" in 70k of TT seems more like wishful thinking than a realistic projection of his TT capabilities. Of course "many" is subjective, but i can't imagine him losing less than 5 minutes on at least one other GC candidate other than Evenepoel and Roglic.

I think you're being a little too deterministic here given that we have little track record to base predictions on. More than 5 minutes in 70k of TT to someone like Almeida (whose TTs really haven't been that great since joining UAE) is a lot for even a bad time-trialist. Even prime Dumoulin only put 6 minutes into Pozzovivo over 70 kilometres of TT in 2017, and I haven't seen many GC riders who were worse time trialists than Pozzovivo. And Almeida and Thomas are no prime Dumoulin, so either of them putting 6 minutes into a Ciccone who's targeting GC would surprise me - think 4-5 minutes to Thomas and less than that to Almeida is likelier. I can definitely think of people not named Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel who can overturn those amounts in the mountains, certainly mountains as hard as those in this Giro.

Now, Ciccone hasn't shown that climbing level in a GT before, but he's also never been climbing as well as he has this year. If he can translate what he's showing right now to the mountain stages, especially those that are a lot harder than today's, throughout the three weeks, he has a good shot at the podium, imo - but those are a lot of ifs. Realistically, if he isn't at least challenging for the top-5, it will be due to not approaching this level in the mountains, not his TT.

 

[staubsauger]

I predict that there's going to be one guy on the Giro d'Italia podium that gets it with an epic long-range attack towards the 3 Merlons! Especially since Evenepoel & Roglic would want to pressure the on in pink to work and weaken him ahead of the mtt.

Whether that's Ciccone or even Hart or the likes of Arensman has to be seen.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

For a long time, I didn’t take Ciccone too seriously, probably because he rode for Bardiani as a young pro. But he has become a world class rider. Seems to be a nice man, also. Very happy for him, and glad that he wasn‘t seriously hurt by this car recently, during his TV interview, as it seems.

In every Trek Segafredo victory there is a part of Lance Armstrong and his spirit, and Lance would and will be proud of his men, like Ciccone or Mads Pedersen. Only sad thing is that they have no one going for a TdF GC podium spot at the moment - maybe Skjelmose or Juanpedro Lopez will be, soon…

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think you're being a little too deterministic here given that we have little track record to base predictions on. More than 5 minutes in 70k of TT to someone like Almeida (whose TTs really haven't been that great since joining UAE) is a lot for even a bad time-trialist. Even prime Dumoulin only put 6 minutes into Pozzovivo over 70 kilometres of TT in 2017, and I haven't seen many GC riders who were worse time trialists than Pozzovivo. And Almeida and Thomas are no prime Dumoulin, so either of them putting 6 minutes into a Ciccone who's targeting GC would surprise me - think 4-5 minutes to Thomas and less than that to Almeida is likelier. I can definitely think of people not named Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel who can overturn those amounts in the mountains, certainly mountains as hard as those in this Giro.

Now, Ciccone hasn't shown that climbing level in a GT before, but he's also never been climbing as well as he has this year. If he can translate what he's showing right now to the mountain stages, especially those that are a lot harder than today's, throughout the three weeks, he has a good shot at the podium, imo - but those are a lot of ifs. Realistically, if he isn't at least challenging for the top-5, it will be due to not approaching this level in the mountains, not his TT.

Dude, he lost 2 minutes to Skjelmose in a 26k TT when he was still only 18s down in GC, in the Skoda Luxembourg Tour just half a year ago. There is no indication whatsoever that he will now all of a sudden become a decent TT'er. If anything 5 minutes is being optimistic.

 

[Red Rick]

I think you're being a little too deterministic here given that we have little track record to base predictions on. More than 5 minutes in 70k of TT to someone like Almeida (whose TTs really haven't been that great since joining UAE) is a lot for even a bad time-trialist. Even prime Dumoulin only put 6 minutes into Pozzovivo over 70 kilometres of TT in 2017, and I haven't seen many GC riders who were worse time trialists than Pozzovivo. And Almeida and Thomas are no prime Dumoulin, so either of them putting 6 minutes into a Ciccone who's targeting GC would surprise me - think 4-5 minutes to Thomas and less than that to Almeida is likelier. I can definitely think of people not named Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel who can overturn those amounts in the mountains, certainly mountains as hard as those in this Giro.

Now, Ciccone hasn't shown that climbing level in a GT before, but he's also never been climbing as well as he has this year. If he can translate what he's showing right now to the mountain stages, especially those that are a lot harder than today's, throughout the three weeks, he has a good shot at the podium, imo - but those are a lot of ifs. Realistically, if he isn't at least challenging for the top-5, it will be due to not approaching this level in the mountains, not his TT.

Never once thought about Ciccones TTs. His results before this year are garbage, but I don't know if he ever really tried. In this form they should be better by default.

I think it's pretty likely if he's among the best 3 climbers in the race he gets a top 3. There's a few stages that are gonna be carnage.

 

[RedheadDane]

In every Trek Segafredo victory there is a part of Lance Armstrong and his spirit, and Lance would and will be proud of his men, like Ciccone or Mads Pedersen. Only sad thing is that they have no one going for a TdF GC podium spot at the moment - maybe Skjelmose or Juanpedro Lopez will be, soon…

Armstrong was never on Trek-Segafredo.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Dude, he lost 2 minutes to Skjelmose in a 26k TT when he was still only 18s down in GC, in the Skoda Luxembourg Tour just half a year ago. There is no indication whatsoever that he will now all of a sudden become a decent TT'er. If anything 5 minutes is being optimistic.

Ciccone's form was absolutely terrible at the back end of last year, saying he will crash and burn in the TTs based on a TT where he crashed and burned in that period is akin to saying Evenepoel will crash and burn in the harder multi-climb stages because he crashed and burned in the last two he did (queen stage in Tirreno 2022, Cortina stage in Giro 2021).

Armstrong was never on Trek-Segafredo.

Trek-Segafredo originally formed as a merger of Leopard-Trek with Armstrong’s Radioshack though, so at the very least he was on a predecessor of the team.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Perhaps it's been mentioned already but there are two stats about Pello Bilbao that suprised me.

This is his first Monument since Lombardia 2017.
He has been top15 in every single race (not stage) he's finished since Tirreno 2021

Armstrong was never on Trek-Segafredo.

Correct, but I would even claim:

The bicycle manufacturer Trek we speak about would not exist any more if Lance hadn‘t existed. Everything they are, they are thanks to Lance.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ciccone's form was absolutely terrible at the back end of last year, saying he will crash and burn in the TTs based on a TT where he crashed and burned in that period is akin to saying Evenepoel will crash and burn in the harder multi-climb stages because he crashed and burned in the last two he did (queen stage in Tirreno 2022, Cortina stage in Giro 2021).

Your analogy makes no sense because that's not all i'm basing it on. He has literally NEVER done a halfway decent long'ish TT in his entire career.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations on what likely is the sweetest stage win of the career so far.

 

[Gratemans]

Well, he did beat some big names mano a mano today but I would think one of those three Giro stages still tastes sweeter to him.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Well, he did beat some big names mano a mano today but I would think one of those three Giro stages still tastes sweeter to him.

If i remember correctly he said in the post interview this is likely his best win so far. And hard to blame him for that. He will always enjoy, when looking in his album, beating Roglič and Evenepoel on a top of a large hill in a sprint. It doesn't get much better then that. Especially after some rather fresh memories from TA.

 

[Gratemans]

If i remember correctly he said in the post interview this is likely his best win so far. And hard to blame him for that. He will always enjoy, when looking in his album, beating Roglič and Evenepoel on a top of a large hill in a sprint. It doesn't get much better then that. Especially after some rather fresh memories from TA.

Oh I can totally understand that.
It's just that I thought (especially for an Italian, but for me as well) a Giro stage would be rated higher. Anyway, great race, and I really am happy for him. I've loved his style ever since the 2017 Giro. Such spirit!

 

[Pippo_San]

Correct, but I would even claim:

The bicycle manufacturer Trek we speak about would not exist any more if Lance hadn‘t existed. Everything they are, they are thanks to Lance.

That's highly disrespectful of a great company. It's like saying PINARELLO wouldn't have sold bikes without Indurain.
Come on.

 

[Red Rick]

Your analogy makes no sense because that's not all i'm basing it on. He has literally NEVER done a halfway decent long'ish TT in his entire career.

Never did any half decent short ones either. Until this years Tirreno. He barely ever rode for GC. I think there's a chance it can go from absolutely dire to average.

Also the reference here wouldn't be Roglic or Evenepoel, but rather Almeida or Thomas.

 

[tobydawq]

I think you're being a little too deterministic here given that we have little track record to base predictions on. More than 5 minutes in 70k of TT to someone like Almeida (whose TTs really haven't been that great since joining UAE) is a lot for even a bad time-trialist. Even prime Dumoulin only put 6 minutes into Pozzovivo over 70 kilometres of TT in 2017, and I haven't seen many GC riders who were worse time trialists than Pozzovivo.

Vuelta a España 2013 Stage 11 (ITT) results

Fabian Cancellara is the winner of Vuelta a España 2013 Stage 11 (ITT), before Tony Martin and Domenico Pozzovivo. Vincenzo Nibali was leader in GC.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[tobydawq]

Dude, he lost 2 minutes to Skjelmose in a 26k TT when he was still only 18s down in GC, in the Skoda Luxembourg Tour just half a year ago. There is no indication whatsoever that he will now all of a sudden become a decent TT'er. If anything 5 minutes is being optimistic.

Well, there is the Tirreno performance. We can't just disregard that.

 

[SafeBet]

Vuelta a España 2013 Stage 11 (ITT) results

Fabian Cancellara is the winner of Vuelta a España 2013 Stage 11 (ITT), before Tony Martin and Domenico Pozzovivo. Vincenzo Nibali was leader in GC.

www.procyclingstats.com

That was one of the most random results I can remember although Mimmo has produced some good TT performances over the years.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Never did any half decent short ones either. Until this years Tirreno. He barely ever rode for GC. I think there's a chance it can go from absolutely dire to average.

Also the reference here wouldn't be Roglic or Evenepoel, but rather Almeida or Thomas.

Did you even read what i have been writing? If you have, then why are you repeating everything i have been saying? Even if we're optimistic and he could improve to average, that could still lead to a 5 minute difference over 70k.

Well, there is the Tirreno performance. We can't just disregard that.

As i already mentioned, not only was that a short TT, it was also a TT where the weather messed up a lot of rides, and those taking the risks, reaping the benefits. This is the odd one out, and the only halfway decent one he's done.

 

[tobydawq]

Did you even read what i have been writing? If you have, then why are you repeating everything i have been saying? Even if we're optimistic and he could improve to average, that could still lead to a 5 minute difference over 70k.


As i already mentioned, not only was that a short TT, it was also a TT where the weather messed up a lot of rides, and those taking the risks, reaping the benefits. This is the odd one out, and the only halfway decent one he's done.

I think there were two bends on that course, the weather could hardly influence that much (even if we did see an upwards trend in time when the last riders came to the finish).

It is the odd one out but it's also the most recent one and there's no way to hide on such a completely flat and straight route.

I'm not saying he's the new Ganna and against Roglic, Remco, G and Almeida, he will obviously lose a lot of time regardless of whether he is slightly better than before ore not.

 

[perico]

That's highly disrespectful of a great company. It's like saying PINARELLO wouldn't have sold bikes without Indurain.
Come on.

Yeah my dad QBs I got Treks back in 1986. It’s been around a lot longer than Lance

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think there were two bends on that course, the weather could hardly influence that much (even if we did see an upwards trend in time when the last riders came to the finish).

It is the odd one out but it's also the most recent one and there's no way to hide on such a completely flat and straight route.

I'm not saying he's the new Ganna and against Roglic, Remco, G and Almeida, he will obviously lose a lot of time regardless of whether he is slightly better than before ore not.

Upward trend has to be the understatement of the year. If you want ONE 11k TT with ludicrous results for 50% of the riders be the argument you want to cling to as reference for a total 70k of TT'ing and a guy who has only once managed a top 100 in a 25k TT or longer (97th place), by all means. There are 3 people debating me, as if i'm the unreasonable one. But this forum keeps wondering why i always write these long replies and why i always get involved in these discussions.

In any case, a guy like Higuita, is usually "decent" at TT's and miles ahead of Ciccone. Please compare their TT results if you don't believe me. If Ciccone were to reach that level in TT i would consider it an enormous success. I doubt he will reach the level of Higuita, but let's just amuse ourselfs and say he could.

Now let reality kick in. Higuita lost over 2 and a half minutes in the 30k Vuelta TT to Carlos Rodriguez (not Evenepoel). Higuita lost 3m18s to Vlasov (who will also be going to the Giro) in the Romandie '22 TT.

It's not just Almeida, or just Thomas. It's also guys like Vlasov. Or Arensman, who will definitely end up in the top 10 of those TT's (certainly combined over 70k). And then there might be the surprise rider (we didn't expect Rodriguez or Ayuso in the Vuelta, we didn't expect Almeida in the '20 Giro). What if a guy like Van Wilder (unlikely as he will be working) or Skjelmose has a breakout performance? Those guys are also up there with Vlasov and Rodriguez in terms of TT. What if Vine turns out to be a GC rider? There are enough riders vastly superior at TT who he could lose a load of time to, and only one has to beat him by a considerable amount.

A scenario that might also unfold, is that he defends well in his first TT, then loses a bit more time in his second one, to completely blow up in his final TT. He is clearly not a naturally gifted TT'er and has clearly not been training on it throughout his career. Unlikely he will be able to sustain an ideal TT position under all circumstances and after 3 weeks of fatigue.

 

[Mayomaniac]

That was one of the most random results I can remember although Mimmo has produced some good TT performances over the years.

Honestly, if he was just able to keep his knees straight he'd already gain 1min in a long TT because of better aerodynamics...

 

[Mayomaniac]

Upward trend has to be the understatement of the year. If you want ONE 11k TT with ludicrous results for 50% of the riders be the argument you want to cling to as reference for a total 70k of TT'ing and a guy who has only once managed a top 100 in a 25k TT or longer (97th place), by all means. There are 3 people debating me, as if i'm the unreasonable one. But this forum keeps wondering why i always write these long replies and why i always get involved in these discussions.

In any case, a guy like Higuita, is usually "decent" at TT's and miles ahead of Ciccone. Please compare their TT results if you don't believe me. If Ciccone were to reach that level in TT i would consider it an enormous success. I doubt he will reach the level of Higuita, but let's just amuse ourselfs and say he could.

Now let reality kick in. Higuita lost over 2 and a half minutes in the 30k Vuelta TT to Carlos Rodriguez (not Evenepoel). Higuita lost 3m18s to Vlasov (who will also be going to the Giro) in the Romandie '22 TT.

It's not just Almeida, or just Thomas. It's also guys like Vlasov. Or Arensman, who will definitely end up in the top 10 of those TT's (certainly combined over 70k). And then there might be the surprise rider (we didn't expect Rodriguez or Ayuso in the Vuelta, we didn't expect Almeida in the '20 Giro). What if a guy like Van Wilder (unlikely as he will be working) or Skjelmose has a breakout performance? Those guys are also up there with Vlasov and Rodriguez in terms of TT. What if Vine turns out to be a GC rider? There are enough riders vastly superior at TT who he could lose a load of time to, and only one has to beat him by a considerable amount.

A scenario that might also unfold, is that he defends well in his first TT, then loses a bit more time in his second one, to completely blow up in his final TT. He is clearly not a naturally gifted TT'er and has clearly not been training on it throughout his career. Unlikely he will be able to sustain an ideal TT position under all circumstances and after 3 weeks of fatigue.

Yeah, I kinda get your point, the Tour route would suit him a lot more with the lack of many kms of ITT and not hectic flat stages in Northern France. That said, I can see why one wouldn't throw him straight at the Tour to ride for the gc.
I guess the initial idea was stagehunting at the Giro and GC at the Vuelta, but his current shape surpasses the expectations.