Hot racing coming up in Australia

[zlev11]

Re:

He was actually in fourth going into the final corner, but lost the wheel which made it impossible for anyone behind him to get in the top three (Bevin was next in line IIRC, DvP came over him).

it's amazing how much Pozzovivo has improved with his positioning over the past 4-5 years. he used to be one of the worst, now he's actually really good at it.

 

[tobydawq]

Corkscrew is 2.5 kms at a little more than 8% average. 500m at 12% is the hardest section.

Is this completely unlikely to be another one for Sagan?

Of course, he said before the race that his shape was worse than previous years. Then again, he said that today, when he had looked well after himself in the first parts of the stage, he was completely in control in the final lap where there were a couple of hard hills.

Of course, today's stage suited him perfectly with respites in between the efforts. But tonight, it's just one (longer) effort.

He will have a descent to play catch-up. I wouldn't put it past him to win again.

 

[Squire]

Re:

Corkscrew is 2.5 kms at a little more than 8% average. 500m at 12% is the hardest section.

Is this completely unlikely to be another one for Sagan?

Of course, he said before the race that his shape was worse than previous years. Then again, he said that today, when he had looked well after himself in the first parts of the stage, he was completely in control in the final lap where there were a couple of hard hills.

Of course, today's stage suited him perfectly with respites in between the efforts. But tonight, it's just one (longer) effort.

He will have a descent to play catch-up. I wouldn't put it past him to win again.

I think he has no chance. 500m at 12% is pretty serious stuff. When the climbers light it up (which they should, to possibly get rid of Bevin), Sagan will feel the effects of gravity, form or no form. Look at the names who have finished in the front group on this stage previously.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Corkscrew is 2.5 kms at a little more than 8% average. 500m at 12% is the hardest section.

Is this completely unlikely to be another one for Sagan?

Of course, he said before the race that his shape was worse than previous years. Then again, he said that today, when he had looked well after himself in the first parts of the stage, he was completely in control in the final lap where there were a couple of hard hills.

Of course, today's stage suited him perfectly with respites in between the efforts. But tonight, it's just one (longer) effort.

He will have a descent to play catch-up. I wouldn't put it past him to win again.

I think he has no chance. 500m at 12% is pretty serious stuff. When the climbers light it up (which they should, to possibly get rid of Bevin), Sagan will feel the effects of gravity, form or no form. Look at the names who have finished in the front group on this stage previously.

I think you're right. But not if he were in top form. Don't forget how he almost climbed Mende as quickly as Alaphilippe in top shape (one kilometer longer, two percentage points steeper than Corkscrew).

 

[The Barb]

Even though he won yesterday, I don't think Sagan is remotely close to peak form. I'd be amazed if he survives Corkscrew.

I expect Woods and Porte to be the strongest but their descending is not strong, so I doubt they could stay away like Evans has done previously. More likely a group of 5-10 comes to the line together. I think Luis Leon Sanchez should be the favourite , but McCarthy, Haas and Poels also good chances.

I'll go with Poels because his finishing sprint is always so underrated.

 

[RedheadDane]

It's actually raining.
Don't remember even seeing a TDU stage with rain…

 

[woodburn]

No standalone race thread this year?

 

[Velolover2]

Wet descent? Not good for Woods and Porte.

I think a reduced sprint is the most likely scenario. But someone who is really brave downhill could take the win.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

No standalone race thread this year?

Don't think we've ever had.

 

[Velolover2]

The trio still have 30 secs n the climb but the gaps is getting smaller.

 

[Velolover2]

Pernsteiner caught.. Last man standing from the break.

 

[Velolover2]

Bevin has lost contact with the leaders, who are riding away.

Bennett is leading, followed by Woods, Porte and Poels.

 

[RedheadDane]

Porte and Woods almost collided on the decend.

 

[jaylew]

Can't believe they got caught

 

[Velolover2]

But we have found out who is the four best climbers. Poels, Bennett, Porte and Woods.

I think Bevin will take this.

 

[Velolover2]

It's a 20-rider lead group heading to the finish.

Is Sagan there?!

 

[jaylew]

Dropped

 

[tobydawq]

Sánchez could maybe have won if he hadn't taken the front too early.

Also, Gibbons made the front group but didn't manage to sprint himself into the top ten....

 

[Velolover2]

I think Bevin got this now. Willunga Hill is more time trialist-friendly and if there is a headwind, Porte will not gain enough seconds to win the overall.

 

[Akuryo]

Re:

I think Bevin got this now. Willunga Hill is more time trialist-friendly and if there is a headwind, Porte will not gain enough seconds to win the overall.

Could still lose it to Impey though ...

 

[Velolover2]

Impressive climbing by Van Baarle.

 

[tobydawq]

I think Woods may dethrone Porte on Willunga.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Bevin shouldn’t lose now.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Bevin shouldn’t lose now.

Porte only needs 12 seconds on him if he doesn't finish in top 3.

It's not over yet but the strong headwind makes it a challenge. There is also Impey but I don't think he can drop a motived Bevin on such as climb. Outsprint him at best.

 

[yaco]

Impey and Bevin will chase bonus seconds at the beginning of stage 5.