Michal Kwiatkowski Thread

[Volderke]

Also, I haven't compared him with Evans.

well, I was comparing him, first at age 23 (but this was stupid for you), then at age 23 vs. 25, but still you don't agree that Kwiatkowski has shown more grand Tour potential and has 2 years more to get on the same level as Evans (which was failure in the Giro after 1 day maglia rosa). So I give you some arguments why Kwiatkowski still has a *potential* grand tour future. At the same time, you say he is at his max (or how else to interpet 'doubt he'll do much better'?)

Kwiat has ridden two and I doubt he'll do much better this year than last year. Kwiat will never podium a GT. Never.

4) I have never said he was at his max, so I can quite easily image he isn't. Next time read what I write.

Further on:

2) I don't think he is 'done with GTs'. I just don't think he'll ever podium one.

My definition of 'not being done with GT' is to aim for a podium or a win. I wonder what your definition is? Go for the Mountain jersey? Or the green? Or a stage?

3) I'm fully aware just how crap Wiggins and Froome was at that age. You seem to miss my point, or did you get it and just keep on going for the sake of arguing?

If you don't make your point clear, I will do: your point is that Wiggins and Froome had more margin to improve.
My point is that we don't know how much margin Kwiatkowski still has. His learning / growing curve is indeed steep and will flatten somewhere, but you are like the expert who seems to know exactly where. If your point is any different, please enlighten me!

for the record: I am not a Kwiatkowski fanboy.

 

[Netserk]

well, I was comparing him, first at age 23 (but this was stupid for you), then at age 23 vs. 25, but still you don't agree that Kwiatkowski has shown more grand Tour potential and has 2 years more to get on the same level as Evans (which was failure in the Giro after 1 day maglia rosa). So I give you some arguments why Kwiatkowski still has a *potential* grand tour future. At the same time, you say he is at his max (or how else to interpet 'doubt he'll do much better'?)


Further on:

My definition of 'not being done with GT' is to aim for a podium or a win. I wonder what your definition is? Go for the Mountain jersey? Or the green? Or a stage?

If you don't make your point clear, I will do: your point is that Wiggins and Froome had more margin to improve.
My point is that we don't know how much margin Kwiatkowski still has. His learning / growing curve is indeed steep and will flatten somewhere, but you are like the expert who seems to know exactly where. If your point is any different, please enlighten me!

for the record: I am not a Kwiatkowski fanboy.

Last year he got 11th. What is much better than that? 7th? I don't think he'll get 7th this year.

I don't Kwiat ever will podium a GT.

Hope this explains what "Kwiat has ridden two and I doubt he'll do much better this year than last year. Kwiat will never podium a GT. Never." means.

I do think he could get 10th. I do think, if he really focussed on it, he could get 5th or so in the future if he was lucky. So no, I do not think he is at his max. Just read what I write next time.

...

I don't think JVDB 'is done with GTs'. Doesn't mean I think he'll podium one. Do you think either?

...

Yes, I do think Kwiat is closer to his ceiling than Froome was at his age (Forum-20 too). The same with Wiggins. A lot actually.

 

[Akuryo]

Last year he got 11th. What is much better than that? 7th? I don't think he'll get 7th this year.

I don't Kwiat ever will podium a GT.

Hope this explains what "Kwiat has ridden two and I doubt he'll do much better this year than last year. Kwiat will never podium a GT. Never." means.

I do think he could get 10th. I do think, if he really focussed on it, he could get 5th or so in the future if he was lucky. So no, I do not think he is at his max. Just read what I write next time.

...

I don't think JVDB 'is done with GTs'. Doesn't mean I think he'll podium one. Do you think either?

...

Yes, I do think Kwiat is closer to his ceiling than Froome was at his age (Forum-20 too). The same with Wiggins. A lot actually.

And why do you think he is "closer to his ceiling"?! Is there any indication for your theory?

 

[Jspear]

Last year he got 11th. What is much better than that? 7th? I don't think he'll get 7th this year.

I don't Kwiat ever will podium a GT.

Hope this explains what "Kwiat has ridden two and I doubt he'll do much better this year than last year. Kwiat will never podium a GT. Never." means.

I do think he could get 10th. I do think, if he really focussed on it, he could get 5th or so in the future if he was lucky. So no, I do not think he is at his max. Just read what I write next time.

...

I don't think JVDB 'is done with GTs'. Doesn't mean I think he'll podium one. Do you think either?

...

Yes, I do think Kwiat is closer to his ceiling than Froome was at his age (Forum-20 too). The same with Wiggins. A lot actually.

How can you be so sure about Kwiatkowski not breaking top 3 in a GT? Do know what kind of rider he will develop into? Couldn't he improve in his climbing? It has already been said - if He was able to get 11th in his first Tour, then he definitely could improve with specific mountain training, losing a little weight, good training, a strong team behind him, ect. Imagine if he had a GT course like Wiggins had. It might not happen at OPQS, but I think it's to early in his career to simply say he'll never podium in a GT. Curious what gives you this hunch? You say he could get top 5, why not 3rd? Gimma some reasons?

 

[Netserk]

And why do you think he is "closer to his ceiling"?! Is there any indication for your theory?

Yep. Him being so good so early. I also think Sagan is closer to his ceiling than Froome was at his age. I also think both Cav and Boonen were close to their ceiling at a young age, unlike Froome and Wiggins.

 

[Netserk]

How can you be so sure about Kwiatkowski not breaking top 3 in a GT? Do know what kind of rider he will develop into? Couldn't he improve in his climbing? It has already been said - if He was able to get 11th in his first Tour, then he definitely could improve with specific mountain training, losing a little weight, good training, a strong team behind him, ect. Imagine if he had a GT course like Wiggins had. It might not happen at OPQS, but I think it's to early in his career to simply say he'll never podium in a GT. Curious what gives you this hunch? You say he could get top 5, why not 3rd? Gimma some reasons?

Because of his build and style. Climbing is by far the most important factor for podium in a GT. In the TdF '13 the best three climbers ended on the podium. The same the year before (even though that was a TT heavy route). 2011 is a little harder to judge, but the trend is clear. You don't podium unless you're among the 5 best uphill, and even then, it's often the best three that podium.

As it is now, his single biggest weakness is mountains, especially hard multi-mountain stages. He'd have to transform and become a different kind of rider for that to change.

 

[Afrank]

Kwiatkowski won't be podiuming the Tour this year or likely the year after that. But if he decides to work towards becoming a GC rider for the grand tours, he could definitely do it in the future. He's only 23 and has got lots of time to improve upon his climbing, TTing, and GT riding.

He's already very good at a number of things, the big thing he needs to work on is his climbing in the high mountains that we see in GT's. I don't think it would be too difficult or require too much of a transformation to improve upon this.

After all, Wiggins won the Tour. And he's shown a lot more then Wiggins did at 23.

 

[Kokoso]

Kwiatkowski won't be podiuming the Tour this year or likely the year after that. But if he decides to work towards becoming a GC rider for the grand tours, he could definitely do it in the future. He's only 23 and has got lots of time to improve upon his climbing, TTing, and GT riding.

He's already very good at a number of things, the big thing he needs to work on is his climbing in the high mountains that we see in GT's. I don't think it would be too difficult or require too much of a transformation to improve upon this.

After all, Wiggins won the Tour. And he's shown a lot more then Wiggins did at 23.

This is probably similar to what some said about Kreuziger years ago. And look at him.
Nothing is sure.

 

[Jspear]

This is probably similar to what some said about Kreuziger years ago. And look at him.
Nothing is sure.

I agree nothing is sure....I can't know whether he will every podium or not. I was responding to Netserk who confidently said Kwiatkowski will never podium in a GT.

 

[BigMac]

His best chance of ever podiuming a GT would be in Le Tour, and that won't happen. So I agree with Netserk. There is no reason to think he will. I think he will be the kind of rider he already is, a great all rounder with good sprinting and above the average time trialing. Even if he did climbing specific training, he'd never match the riders who basically are ''born'' climbers.

C'mon, all this Kwiatkowski hype is a bit silly. Most had no clue who he was before Strade Bianche. Don't get me wrong, I always thought he was a great rider and soon became one of my favourites. He will never podium a GT the same way Sagan will never win Roubaix (unless, obviously, he is dragged to the line) - time will prove us right.

 

[Pentacycle]

His best chance of ever podiuming a GT would be in Le Tour, and that won't happen. So I agree with Netserk. There is no reason to think he will. I think he will be the kind of rider he already is, a great all rounder with good sprinting and above the average time trialing. Even if he did climbing specific training, he'd never match the riders who basically are ''born'' climbers.

C'mon, all this Kwiatkowski hype is a bit silly. Most had no clue who he was before Strade Bianche. Don't get me wrong, I always thought he was a great rider and soon became one of my favourites. He will never podium a GT the same way Sagan will never win Roubaix (unless, obviously, he is dragged to the line) - time will prove us right.

And this is why many riders deemed uncapable of winning big races have still succeeded in doing so.

Kwiatek only needs luck; a parcours that suits him, with many hilly races and TT kilometers, and a boring race. It's similar to Gerrans needing an apalling edition of LBL to win.

It's IMO never wise to state that a rider will definitely never win 'race x' or survive 'stage y', or something like that, while the chance of the rider proving the opposite is still significant.

 

[Bushman]

And why do you think he is "closer to his ceiling"?! Is there any indication for your theory?

Look at how good he is in hills, sprints, tt'ing and smaller mountains. His overall level i very, very good already but his climbing is not. His climbing skills are decent, but it is unlikely that he will improve them as much as Wiggins and Froome did, when he is several levels above them at the same age.

 

[forkboy84]

This is probably similar to what some said about Kreuziger years ago. And look at him.
Nothing is sure.

No kidding! I think we're all aware of that fact. When people predict who they think will become the next big thing the key word is prediction. It's not "this will definitely happen", it's "I think this could happen".

 

[Afrank]

This is probably similar to what some said about Kreuziger years ago. And look at him.
Nothing is sure.

True, he may never podium. Maybe he'll decide to take a different path and become a one day rider and forget all about stage racing in general, only he knows. But the potential to become a GT rider and podium is there.

 

[Kokoso]

True, he may never podium. Maybe he'll decide to take a different path and become a one day rider and forget all about stage racing in general, only he knows. But the potential to become a GT rider and podium is there.

Also it depends on how is the race designed. If Tour'd come back with profiles that were usual years ago, with much less climbing, much more TTing and especially very very long TTT, he'd almost instantly turn to be candidate for podium. Because I think he is more great than above average TTist.

OT: to be fair (or clear), I think that Kreuziger still has a chance to stand on GT podium sometime.

 

[karlboss]

I rate him as a chance to podium or win a GT in the future. Wiggins won a tour. One big obstacle is being able to ride a GT selfishly,day in day out.
As for his heavier builds, Evans, Landis, Armstrong, Ullrich, and then there is the lossing weight option. I wouldn't put him in the conversation for any GT this year, nor next, but it could happen.

 

[fauniera]

He will never podium a GT the same way Sagan will never win Roubaix

Wow, two silly statements in one sentence. Both things may be unlikely (i would disagree, though) but ruling it out completely is just nonsense. We are talking about riders who are 23 resp. 24 years old and have shown more talent than almost anybody in the last few years.

 

[Volderke]

His best chance of ever podiuming a GT would be in Le Tour, and that won't happen.

What makes you think the other grand tours won't have an edition with a lot of TT kilometers and not too much climbing? Are you the race organizer for the next 10 years or what?

Even if he did climbing specific training, he'd never match the riders who basically are ''born'' climbers.

Remember Wiggins?

C'mon, all this Kwiatkowski hype is a bit silly. Most had no clue who he was before Strade Bianche.

I agree the hype this year is a bit too much, but I (and most cycling fans) knew him from the RVV 2013 when he did a long attack that almost got him on the podium.

He will never podium a GT the same way Sagan will never win Roubaix (unless, obviously, he is dragged to the line) - time will prove us right.

Sagan almost won Roubaix this year, first participation. I didn't think he would survive the finale after his daring and exhausting attack, but he did with style and panache.

 

[Netserk]

It was Sagan's third participation...

I cannot stress it enough, Kwiat is totally not comparable to Wiggins. Remember ceiling folks.

 

[Kokoso]

It was Sagan's third participation...

I cannot stress it enough, Kwiat is totally not comparable to Wiggins. Remember ceiling folks.

Ceiling or not, you can't know anything. Neither me. Remember that well.

 

[Netserk]

Ceiling or not, you can't know anything. Neither me. Remember that well.

Yes I can. I am perfectly aware of what is possible to know and what isn't.

 

[karlboss]

Sagan almost won Roubaix this year, first participation. I didn't think he would survive the finale after his daring and exhausting attack, but he did with style and panache.

Except for the other 2.

 

[jsem94]

Fabian didn't win any monuments until age 25. Museeuw didn't win any until age 27. Van Petegem won his first at age 29. Sagan has plenty of year ahead of him to win Monuments, including PR.

 

[Volderke]

yeah, common, if you can't say anything better than:
[keyboard hero detects a mistake in poster comment]"Sagan his 3rd participation"[/keyboard hero happy with rectifying other keyboard hero without adding anything constructive]

It is his first real participation, and he got 6th and he is 23. And still all you can say is: he will never win... Luckily the internet has a good memory, and Sagan has like 10 more chances to prove you wrong

By the way, I only see Sagan participated in 2011 and 2014. Did he participated before 2011? At pro level?

 

[fauniera]

By the way, I only see Sagan participated in 2011 and 2014. Did he participated before 2011? At pro level?

2010.

I think he was strong there at Arenberg, but i'm not sure.