Milan - San Remo 2018

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Whi will win 2018 Milan - San Remo?

  • Peter Sagan

    Votes: 56 40.9%
  • Michal Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 13 9.5%
  • Alexander Kristoff

    Votes: 11 8.0%
  • Elia Viviani

    Votes: 12 8.8%
  • Arnaud Démare

    Votes: 7 5.1%
  • Philippe Gilbert

    Votes: 5 3.6%
  • Greg Van Avermaet

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Dylan Groenewegen

    Votes: 6 4.4%
  • John Degenkolb

    Votes: 1 0.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 26 19.0%

  • Total voters
    137
Jun 30, 2014
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wheresmybrakes said:
Steve cummings to attack with about 50k to go and ride off into the sunset. :D
I wouldn't mind that at all, but it's probably gonna rain, so it's gonna be an epic Spilak solo win. :cool:
 
Sep 6, 2016
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Red Rick said:
Will be interesting to see how the smaller teams affect this one.

I doubt too much honestly. The majority of winning moves are formed from less than 7km out. At that point very few teams are still intact.
 
Sep 6, 2016
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Could anyone tell me how good GVA’s sprint is in a reduced (40 or less riders, no leadout) situation? Can he beat Sagan/Kristoff/Demare in those situations?
 
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Durden93 said:
Could anyone tell me how good GVA’s sprint is in a reduced (40 or less riders, no leadout) situation? Can he beat Sagan/Kristoff/Demare in those situations?

No, definitely not. He can win after a very hard race in the cobbled classic in a small group (even with Sagan there) but in a reduced bunch, Sagan is much more effective in not working and surfing wheels, and then GvA doesn't stand a chance because his top speed is simply not nearly as high.

If he wants to win, he has to do a Kwiat. But I think if he finds himself in a small group, he will help taking turns, because he doesn't have a sprinter behind and doesn't ride as defensively as some Sagan fans want to believe. But that will cost him in the sprint (primarily because Sagan would then not have had to do all the work).

But in all honesty - I doubt he will even be able to go with an attack on Poggio. If he couldn't do it last year, when he was clearly in better form as now, he probably won't be able to now. Even if he positions himself better.
 
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Van Avermaet should try something before the Poggio (or on the Cipressa or just after when the group tend to relax a bit), I think there are other riders that are not so fast and can't go on the Poggio because they have other option for it or the sprint in the team that could join, for example Gilbert, Moscon, Naesen, Trentin or Impey, Ulissi maybe even Nibali but probably he's not in shape.

If he'll wait for the sprint the best he can do is something like this.
http://firstcycling.com/race.php?r=4&y=2016
 
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gregrowlerson said:
Gilbert to attack on the penultimate climb and somehow hold on for victory.

Obviously highly unlikely, but a Gilbert win would be great for the sport IMO, adding additional interest to P-R as he would be going for the full set.

He might not win, but he HAS to attack. He wants to win all 5 monuments. He needs MSR. It's simple, he can't win the sprint, so he has to attack.
 
Another chance he has is from an attack in the last 1500 m, if the favourites don't have team-mates and start looking at each other. That's in fact likely his best chance of winning here. He doesn't have the explosiveness anymore to make the difference on the Poggio, and he doesn't have the sprint to win in a smaller group. He'll have to play it smart and be very lucky.
 
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Jagartrott said:
Another chance he has is from an attack in the last 1500 m, if the favourites don't have team-mates and start looking at each other. That's in fact likely his best chance of winning here. He doesn't have the explosiveness anymore to make the difference on the Poggio, and he doesn't have the sprint to win in a smaller group. He'll have to play it smart and be very lucky.

It is exactly what I think he will do, and what his best chance is. But I doubt he will succeed.