Paris - Roubaix 2024, one day monument, April 7

[Nick2413]

Much bigger chance for a non Van der Poel win than Flanders. Hopefully Pedersen didn’t ride himself to the ground on Sunday. Voted for him out of hope. Thinking Tarling will be a future winner but might still be too soon. Surprised this is Bettiol’s first PR, maybe he will be good.

Just hoping not to see a Van der Poel / Philipsen clinic. Would be funny if Philipsen wins in similar circumstances to MSR.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

If I recall correctly Roubaix 2021 then Van der Poel was outstanding on the wet and muddy and created small gaps in basically every cobbled corner, but because he wasn’t strong enough (which fits well with the post-Olympic problems) he couldn’t make the small gaps stick.

exactly this. He didn't have the form/stength he has now to make any gap stick really. Relied more on small group sprints in those years in general.

If he gaps everyone on wet cobble corners and can hold the gap like e3 or rvv its different. In dry roubaix I think VDP has many competitors

 

[Keldergoat]

given the tail wind, I can't see anything else than a fast race and not many chances for a tactical race.

Can anyone explain to me the relationship between having a tail wind and lowering the chances of a tactical race? I always understood that a head wind makes the race harder to attack and thus more challenging to make play it tactical.

 

[Salvarani]

Van Baarle could be a good bet. He seems to going into shape, and Roubaix suits him quite well.

He has been awfully quiet so far but maybe waited on this day, who knows.

 

[scribers]

Both things can be true in tactical racing occurs in all wind (including no wind) conditions

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

Can anyone explain to me the relationship between having a tail wind and lowering the chances of a tactical race? I always understood that a head wind makes the race harder to attack and thus more challenging to make play it tactical.

Tailwind makes it easier to drop people because the draft is less signifcant, thus a stronger rider has a better chance to succeed in a solo win. Headwind makes draft more important and thus it's more difficult to win based on brute force alone. Also more chance of a sprint in case of a strong headwind.

 

[Volderke]

Can anyone explain to me the relationship between having a tail wind and lowering the chances of a tactical race? I always understood that a head wind makes the race harder to attack and thus more challenging to make play it tactical.

It's easier to control a race / break with a headwind.
As you say yourself, a head wind makes it harder to attack, so easier to control affairs and attackers falling back because they are not stronger than the peloton with a head wind.

It's more difficult to 'break' riders with a headwind if you're forcing the pace on cobblestones as the ones that try to hold your wheel will benefit from the draft.

I said it in the RVV topic, and it has turned out to be like this: MvdP was not sure after Koppenberg if he should press on. The team car told him to press on as they saw only Jorgensen and Pedersen were riding behind him and all others were on foot, but MvdP himself was probably not too eager to go solo from this far out, as the wind was, from Koppenberg to Ronse, firmly on his face so he had to work hard to consolidate his gap, and it would have been much easier to e.g. start a solo attack from top of Kwaremont with most of the wind from there in the back.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Mads, lacking confidence? That remains to be seen. I think he will try to strongman this WC style, do to much and miss out at the very end.

Doing exactly that in Flanders I immediately read af lack of confidence and a desperate move...of which he himself admitted in several post race interviews, even stated that if Lidl DS Gregory Rast had called him back he would've continued anyway, clinging to the vague hope of gaining more time to accomodate his sub par cobble climbing effort. And fully admitted it was knucklehead tactics and a desperate move.

And pretty convinced Mads is not at 100% physically for upcoming sunday - and he knows by himself.
However, the huge difference between Flanders and P-R is that an early move in the latter, even before Arenberg can benefit you in the long run, hence not a desperate move.
But from there it's all in your head, and Mads got knocked stone cold in the canvas mentally last sunday. And yes, I know Mads is something special here, just my observations substantiated by interviews.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Uh, why would you have Philipsen above Van der Poel??

Due to De Ronde really taking its toll in this years edition.
Especially since the Boonen - Cancellara - Sagan era we've been lulled into a silly imagination that this double is piece of cake.
I think this De Ronde - P-R double for riders going deep in the first round will show something else.

 

[Berniece]

Due to De Ronde really taking its toll in this years edition.
Especially since the Boonen - Cancellara - Sagan era we've been lulled into a silly imagination that this double is piece of cake.
I think this De Ronde - P-R double for riders going deep in the first round will show something else.

Doubt it took a toll on him, he stepped on the plane the same evening and trained again on Monday in Spain

 

[Max Rockatansky]

After hiding the whole spring campaign, except in Omloop, it's time for Gianni Moscon to reveal why he joined Quick Step. He will finish, what he started in '21.

Arenberg's Mulsanne moment...another sad moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775141879216029806

View: https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1775141879216029806

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Doubt it took a toll on him, he stepped on the plane the same evening and trained again on Monday in Spain

As he should The worst thing you can do the day after exploring the very limits of your body is resting at your sofa all day.
I know that a lot has been optimized recent years speaking body prepatations and I have to admit that I haven't fully followed the Ketone gossip that much otherwise that it might help restitution.
However, very clear from MvDP's driving style during last 10 k De Ronde as well as supported by his concise post race interview that it took quite harder on him than usual.

 

[Brullnux]

Tailwind makes it easier to drop people because the draft is less signifcant, thus a stronger rider has a better chance to succeed in a solo win. Headwind makes draft more important and thus it's more difficult to win based on brute force alone. Also more chance of a sprint in case of a strong headwind.

The flip side is that with a headwind, then it can become more attritional, and we see the strongest rider just rider off the front with 25km to go. The Hayman edition was an extremely long tailwind, no?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

After hiding the whole spring campaign, except in Omloop, it's time for Gianni Moscon to reveal why he joined Quick Step. He will finish, what he started in '21.

Arenberg's Mulsanne moment...another sad moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775141879216029806

View: https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1775141879216029806

That could actually make Arenberg way harder depending on what the chicane would look like although the chicane itself could cause crashes due to nervous racing.

 

[Berniece]

As he should The worst thing you can do the day after exploring the very limits of your body is resting at your sofa all day.
I know that a lot has been optimized recent years speaking body prepatations and I have to admit that I haven't fully followed the Ketone gossip that much otherwise that it might help restitution.
However, very clear from MvDP's driving style during last 10 k De Ronde as well as supported by his concise post race interview that it took quite harder on him than usual.

Yeah, that's true. It was one of the hardest ever races for him, but a week is a long time to get back on your feet. It's not like E3 => Gent-Wevelgem which is only 1.5 days of recovery. This is a full 6.5 days of recovery.

 

[Salvarani]

After hiding the whole spring campaign, except in Omloop, it's time for Gianni Moscon to reveal why he joined Quick Step. He will finish, what he started in '21.

Arenberg's Mulsanne moment...another sad moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1775141879216029806

View: https://twitter.com/inrng/status/1775141879216029806

This is sad and potentially even more dangerous.

Why they gotta ruin everything?

Nobody is forcing the riders to go 60 km/h into Arenberg, in the first place. They do it to try to win the race.

Everybody knows the risks and the potential reward for going through Arenberg unscathed. You have a good chance to ride the final and potentially win the race, if you make it through there. It is a huge and critical part of the race.

 

[tobydawq]

This is sad and potentially even more dangerous.

Why they gotta ruin everything?

Nobody is forcing the riders to go 60 km/h into Arenberg, in the first place. They do it to try to win the race.

Everybody knows the risks and the potential reward for going through Arenberg unscathed. You have a good chance to ride the final and potentially win the race, if you make it through there. It is a huge and critical part of the race.

How is it more dangerous?

 

[Salvarani]

How is it more dangerous?

"Potentially".

 

[Netserk]

The most radical solution would be to use the chicane between the train tracks and the cobbles, forcing the riders to an almost stand-still.

 

[Netserk]

Of course, you'd then have a bottle-neck worse than Koppenberg was last Sunday.

 

[staubsauger]

The most radical solution would be to use the chicane between the train tracks and the cobbles, forcing the riders to an almost stand-still.

That would not just potentially be more dangerous than going straight into Arenberg's forest!

 

[Volderke]

A lot of problems in Arenberg are due to hitting the cobbles at very high speed: the material is simply not made for this thus we see a lot of broken wheels, slammed chains, flat tires and loss of control over the bike and thus crashes.

Starting slower makes this secteur harder, more selective and less of a lottery. Still, the major issue is positioning before the secteur and any obstacle like a chicane can cause crashes as well.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

That would not just potentially be more dangerous than going straight into Arenberg's forest!

Lots of soft hay balls will help. Oh, the pictures!

 

[Netserk]

That would not just potentially be more dangerous than going straight into Arenberg's forest!

A different kind of danger, but more like the bottle-neck of Molenberg than the high-speed crashes we have now. Or rather, the high-speed crashes would occur in the straight km before crossing the train tracks.

 

[red_flanders]

All good points @Volderke. I have to say, that shot of them all charging full speed into the forest is one of the best moments of cycling of the year, so exciting and impressive! But I'm interested to see if they can make a change which offers the benefits you list. "More selective and less of a lottery" could be great as well. Very curious to see how it all plays out.

Lots of soft hay balls will help. Oh, the pictures!

I hope you mean "soft hay bales".