Rio 2016 Olympic Road Race and Time Trial courses

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

The only questionable choice here is not taking Swift in case race is easy (he is pretty decent at setting tempo too), but this lineup is far from shocking. I would give A. Yates a free role though.

Wouldn't take S. Yates after disqualification.


Froome has better chance of winning than Quintana or Contador. Second only to Nibali among top 4

Sure, but that's only because Contador and Quintana have almost no chance. The question is whether Froome has more chance than Adam Yates - a rider who has actually won a prestigious hilly classic against a high quality field within the last year. Froome and a bunch of pure climbers who can't sprint are not going to drop all of the likes of Valverde, Costa and Martin - and stay away from them on a course like this.

There's not much flat left after the final climb and descent. It's definitely possible that the pure climbers will triumph over the ardennes specialists

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The only questionable choice here is not taking Swift in case race is easy (he is pretty decent at setting tempo too), but this lineup is far from shocking. I would give A. Yates a free role though.

Wouldn't take S. Yates after disqualification.


Froome has better chance of winning than Quintana or Contador. Second only to Nibali among top 4

Sure, but that's only because Contador and Quintana have almost no chance. The question is whether Froome has more chance than Adam Yates - a rider who has actually won a prestigious hilly classic against a high quality field within the last year. Froome and a bunch of pure climbers who can't sprint are not going to drop all of the likes of Valverde, Costa and Martin - and stay away from them on a course like this.

There's not much flat left after the final climb and descent. It's definitely possible that the pure climbers will triumph over the ardennes specialists

I thought there was over 15km of mostly flat after the last climb? And the last climb is only 500m of ascent, with flatter and downhill sections, how much of a gap do you think someone like Froome could get over Valverde there? Perhaps 30 seconds max, then no way he can hold that for 15km against a team like Spain who will probably have several riders still left to chase him down.

To be honest, I don't even think Froome will be able to put out anything like the power need after a long hard race. When has he ever done anything after 250km of riding? Think it will be between the best Ardennes riders and the best from Lombardia in recent years. Froome has done nothing to suggest he can drop riders in a one day race - let alone one of monument distance.

 

[Googolplex]

The flat was shortened, so it's only 12,2 km and the total distance 241,5 km.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

The flat was shortened, so it's only 12,2 km and the total distance 241,5 km.

OK, thanks. Still think it's too much for a climber to stay away. That will be 15+ mins of time trialling at that stage in the race. Just don't think the climb is hard enough to gain enough of an advantage to keep clear, and some teams will have more than one rider there to work. Especially as very few pure climbers have any real winning experience in races of that distance.

Pretty sure it will be someone who can sprint a bit, or someone that can pursuit clear in the last 3km that will win.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

The flat was shortened, so it's only 12,2 km and the total distance 241,5 km.

OK, thanks. Still think it's too much for a climber to stay away. That will be 15+ mins of time trialling at that stage in the race. Just don't think the climb is hard enough to gain enough of an advantage to keep clear, and some teams will have more than one rider there to work. Especially as very few pure climbers have any real winning experience in races of that distance.

Pretty sure it will be someone who can sprint a bit, or someone that can pursuit clear in the last 3km that will win.

I think the only team that could possibly cause a sprint is Spain, mostly because it's the only team strong enough. Let's say Froome leads after the descent 15 seconds in front of Nibali, that won't be a big gap to close if someone has still teammates left, but the teammates will, even if they are strong, probably be clearly behind the second strongest and if for example Rosa is 50 or even only 40 seconds down that disadvantage will already be too much to close.
Spain however will have so many strong riders who can climb strong that they might also be able to do some good teamwork after the last climb. Moreover Spain is also one of the few countries with a climber who also has a great sprint (Valverde) so they are the team which has the best reason to chase.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The flat was shortened, so it's only 12,2 km and the total distance 241,5 km.

OK, thanks. Still think it's too much for a climber to stay away. That will be 15+ mins of time trialling at that stage in the race. Just don't think the climb is hard enough to gain enough of an advantage to keep clear, and some teams will have more than one rider there to work. Especially as very few pure climbers have any real winning experience in races of that distance.

Pretty sure it will be someone who can sprint a bit, or someone that can pursuit clear in the last 3km that will win.

I think the only team that could possibly cause a sprint is Spain, mostly because it's the only team strong enough. Let's say Froome leads after the descent 15 seconds in front of Nibali, that won't be a big gap to close if someone has still teammates left, but the teammates will, even if they are strong, probably be clearly behind the second strongest and if for example Rosa is 50 or even only 40 seconds down that disadvantage will already be too much to close.
Spain however will have so many strong riders who can climb strong that they might also be able to do some good teamwork after the last climb. Moreover Spain is also one of the few countries with a climber who also has a great sprint (Valverde) so they are the team which has the best reason to chase.

I think it will be a small bunch finish - at least going into the las 3km (someone may go solo then to prevent a sprint), regardless of what Spain do. Just can't see the differences being enough over the top of the climb - to be honest, I doubt that the likes of Froome and Quintana could drop Valverde or Martin at all on a climb with this profile (more gentle towards the top) after 230km in a one day race.

Nibali might have the best chance if he attacks over the top and goes on the descent, but he's not going to last for 12km on the flat.

 

[Brullnux]

Initially I thought so too but hearing everyone's reports of the course it seems genuinely pretty hard. With 5 man teams it could be great. Hopefully

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

The flat was shortened, so it's only 12,2 km and the total distance 241,5 km.

OK, thanks. Still think it's too much for a climber to stay away. That will be 15+ mins of time trialling at that stage in the race. Just don't think the climb is hard enough to gain enough of an advantage to keep clear, and some teams will have more than one rider there to work. Especially as very few pure climbers have any real winning experience in races of that distance.

Pretty sure it will be someone who can sprint a bit, or someone that can pursuit clear in the last 3km that will win.

I think the only team that could possibly cause a sprint is Spain, mostly because it's the only team strong enough. Let's say Froome leads after the descent 15 seconds in front of Nibali, that won't be a big gap to close if someone has still teammates left, but the teammates will, even if they are strong, probably be clearly behind the second strongest and if for example Rosa is 50 or even only 40 seconds down that disadvantage will already be too much to close.
Spain however will have so many strong riders who can climb strong that they might also be able to do some good teamwork after the last climb. Moreover Spain is also one of the few countries with a climber who also has a great sprint (Valverde) so they are the team which has the best reason to chase.

Not to be flippant but the Spanish haven't been renowned for their teamwork in recent events...

 

[Tonton]

Very true.

Can Sagan hang on in the climbs?

Small bunch, I agree. 10-15 guys max. Someone to take a chance with 2K to go or less, try to pull an Ekimov.

 

[togo95]

Very true.

Can Sagan hang on in the climbs?

Small bunch, I agree. 10-15 guys max. Someone to take a chance with 2K to go or less, try to pull an Ekimov.

Sagan is not doing the RR, he might do MTB XC though.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Very true.

Can Sagan hang on in the climbs?

Sagan could hold on if (a) he puts in the climbing performance of his life and (b) it is the easiest ridden WCRR in recent decades. Otherwise, no.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Ha! And now togo95 correctly points out that he would also have to do (c) start the race in the first place.

 

[Tonton]

What a waste...Sagan showed i.e. TdCalifornia '15 that he can hang on. What a shame.

 

[Hyman]

The climb is super hard. The first 4 kms are at 9.5% average gradient. There is no way on earth Dan Martin will be able to be there with the top climbers coming from The tour on top form.

I see a type of scenario similar to Mende. Valverde needs to be at his very very top to stand a chance and he will have to climb with the likes of Froome, Quintana or Contador.

Dan Martin has the same chances to win than Cavendish. None. He has never been able to climb with star 1 guys on tier 1 competition.

 

[Red Rick]

I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.

 

[DFA123]

The climb is super hard. The first 4 kms are at 9.5% average gradient. There is no way on earth Dan Martin will be able to be there with the top climbers coming from The tour on top form.

I see a type of scenario similar to Mende. Valverde needs to be at his very very top to stand a chance and he will have to climb with the likes of Froome, Quintana or Contador.

Dan Martin has the same chances to win than Cavendish. None. He has never been able to climb with star 1 guys on tier 1 competition.

You're missing one big factor here though - it's a one day race not a stage in a GT. Riders like Froome, Quintana and Contador often crush the competition in stage races for two reasons. Firstly because they have great recovery, and secondly because they can more or less soft pedal most of the stage behind a train and then put in a 45min threshold effort on the final climb.

One day races don't work like that - espcially not ones with a max of five man teams. When have Froome, Quintana or Contador ever done anything in a race of that length? When have they ever done anything in a one day race? One day races are typically a lot more irregular - there are faster paced from the start, have a lot more surges in pace and points where riders have to go anaerobic to win than in a stage race - which is why the more rounded riders are the favourites here.

Dan Martin has won Lombardia and Liege, Valverde is the best hilly one day racer of his generation - that is why they are the favourites here. They have won one day races like this in the past - of this difficulty and of this length - none of Froome, Contador or Quintana have ever come close.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Germany has nominated...

Panzerwagen
Buchmann
Geschke
Levy

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.

I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.

 

[LaFlorecita]

When have Froome, Quintana or Contador ever done anything in a race of that length? When have they ever done anything in a one day race?

Contador has a top-10 finish in both LBL and Lombardia though. He also won Milano-Torino and finished 3rd in FW, while those races aren't nearly as long or hard as those monuments or the Olympic road race, they're still one-day races

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.

I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.

Have you listened?

This is not some medium mountain stage in the Tour where contenders think of higher mountins and the likes of Bauke Mollema reel in every break thinking of the top 15 spot they have to protect. Some of the best climbers in the world are gonna leave it all on the road on a climb of 8km. No sprinter or puncheur is gonna be close when they crest the top. Only look at Col de Manse or Col d'Eze to see what can happen on a false flat cat 2 climb when the real climbers create havoc. Then the climb we're talking about is way, way harder. Teams are 5 men strong. Chances are larger that GBR doesn't leave the EU then that a sprinter wins the Olympic road race.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.

I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.

You are so far off the mark is not funny - Climbers are being selected because its a climbers course - I doubt very much that Matthews will be selected.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.

I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.

Have you listened?

This is not some medium mountain stage in the Tour where contenders think of higher mountins and the likes of Bauke Mollema reel in every break thinking of the top 15 spot they have to protect. Some of the best climbers in the world are gonna leave it all on the road on a climb of 8km. No sprinter or puncheur is gonna be close when they crest the top. Only look at Col de Manse or Col d'Eze to see what can happen on a false flat cat 2 climb when the real climbers create havoc. Then the climb we're talking about is way, way harder. Teams are 5 men strong. Chances are larger that GBR doesn't leave the EU then that a sprinter wins the Olympic road race.

I've listened I just don't agree. The bookies seem to have a similar opinion: Valverde, Martin, Kwiatkowski, Costa, Matthews, Nibali, Rodriguez, Gerrans all below 20/1. Quintana is 66/1, Contador 50/1, Froome 25/1 - these are huge outsiders.

 

[Mr.White]

What a waste...Sagan showed i.e. TdCalifornia '15 that he can hang on. What a shame.

Sagan did a reconnaissance couple of month ago, he claimed this course is not for him.

I think 7-8 strongest climbers will sort it out

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I think that after a course as hard as this one, the final flat will come down to legs much more than tt ability. And there will be absolute top climbers leaving it all on the road on the final climb. I think there's a very small chance of a larger group sprinting for the win.

I think the difficulty is being over-estimated quite a bit. The final climb is like an easier version of Il Ghisallo (basically the same lower part but with a much more gentle top section); and they are only doing that three times. Because it's so gentle towards the top, anyone who makes an attack right from the bottom is going to be wasting a lot of energy on the upper section - so I think we'll just see riders going late and trying to gain an advantage over the top and on the descent.

I think riders like Matthews and Gilbert have more of a chance than Froome or Quintana.

You are so far off the mark is not funny - Climbers are being selected because its a climbers course - I doubt very much that Matthews will be selected.

I think this climb has gained some kind of mythical status that it doesn't really justify. Let's remind ourselves of the profile.

Anyone who attacks early is just going to be wasting energy on that top section - teams like France, Spain and Italy will have enough strength to get organised and chase them down. Anyone who attacks in the last km is just not going to get enough of an advantage. There are still 12km of flat to go at the end - that's plenty of time for climber-puncheurs who may have lost about 30 seconds to get back on. And the likes of Kwiatkowski, Gilbert, any domestiques for Spain, Italy, France will certainly work together for quite possibly their one shot at the Olympic title.

The other factor is that earlier in the race there are about 10 climbs of 1km length which will most probably be ridden hard at an anaerobic/vo2 max pace. That is going to take a lot more out of the legs of pure climbers, than it will out of all-round Liege/Lombardia specialist.

 

[cnfdugo]

Re: Re:

The Olympics' insistence that the TT picks must also be among the RR picks is purely based on logistical convenience and makes no sporting sense. There are quite a few riders who deserve a chance to be at the Olympics who won't get to compete because of it.

Indeed, if they have a little sport left in them they'll invite Sáblíková to compete.