Sky V Garmin 2011

[Willy_Voet]

I suppose that's true, but I can't see him topping Boonen, Cancellara, Devolder, or Gilbert, all of whom should be at the race.

We could take this to the Clinic to discuss those possibilities some more.

I'd give him 1 in 20 odds regardless.

 

[unsheath]

Strike out Devolder. He doesnt have the luxury of the Tommeke decoy.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Well, I wouldn't rule out Haussler in Flanders either if he's truely back to old form which so far it seems he is.

It is early to mid feb currently. Early april is when the two main cobbled classic are. Long time between then and now. Lets wait and see where he is at in late march.

 

[Eric8-A]

I think they should leave Haussler for Milan San Remo
Hushovd for Paris-Roubaix

I think Garmin is having their best season so far. I don't think they have had this success so early on in the season. There's one stage left in Qatar, and based on what they did at the Tour Down Under, they have a good chance at snatching the overall from Renshaw.

I don't know if it's too early to say. But I actually smell a Tour stage win this year.

 

[ingsve]

I think they should leave Haussler for Milan San Remo
Hushovd for Paris-Roubaix

I think Garmin is having their best season so far. I don't think they have had this success so early on in the season. There's one stage left in Qatar, and based on what they did at the Tour Down Under, they have a good chance at snatching the overall from Renshaw.

I don't know if it's too early to say. But I actually smell a Tour stage win this year.

That depends on whether he gets to ride the Tour or not. I still think there might not be room for him if they want to have a well balanced team.

 

[Eric8-A]

That depends on whether he gets to ride the Tour or not. I still think there might not be room for him if they want to have a well balanced team.

I wasn't saying Haussler will give them the Tour stage. I also doubt he'll ride the Tour. I meant one rider from their Tour roster will deliver.

 

[ingsve]

I wasn't saying Haussler will give them the Tour stage. I also doubt he'll ride the Tour. I meant one rider from their Tour roster will deliver.

Ah ok. Ya, this year is probably their best shot at a stage win yet I think. Last year they could also have done it with Farrar, who was looking very good going in to the Tour, had it not been for the trouble he had.

 

[royalpig180]

I wasn't saying Haussler will give them the Tour stage. I also doubt he'll ride the Tour. I meant one rider from their Tour roster will deliver.

I agree, and I think Hushovd is there best bet. Without looking over all the route profiles, I'd be willing to bet that there will be a stage with enough climbing that most of the spinters will be dropped and he'll hold on in the bunch to take the win. Farrar could win a bunch sprint, but that seems far less likely given his track record at the Tour. Cav is so good at peaking just for the tour (like a certain Mr. Schleck), it'll still be tough to beat him.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I agree, and I think Hushovd is there best bet. Without looking over all the route profiles, I'd be willing to bet that there will be a stage with enough climbing that most of the spinters will be dropped and he'll hold on in the bunch to take the win. Farrar could win a bunch sprint, but that seems far less likely given his track record at the Tour. Cav is so good at peaking just for the tour (like a certain Mr. Schleck), it'll still be tough to beat him.

Not sure I buy that comparison - prior to his annus horribilis he happily won 15-25 races a year. Schleck is just a joke, best discussed in the other forum.

 

[taiwan]

I agree, and I think Hushovd is there best bet. Without looking over all the route profiles, I'd be willing to bet that there will be a stage with enough climbing that most of the spinters will be dropped and he'll hold on in the bunch to take the win. Farrar could win a bunch sprint, but that seems far less likely given his track record at the Tour. Cav is so good at peaking just for the tour (like a certain Mr. Schleck), it'll still be tough to beat him.

I think that but for his injury at the 2010 Tour, Farrar would likely have had a stage alrady. He's very very close to Cav these days and improving. Without trying to jinx him, I'll be more surprised if he doesn't get a Tour stge than does.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I think that but for his injury at the 2010 Tour, Farrar would likely have had a stage alrady. He's very very close to Cav these days and improving. Without trying to jinx him, I'll be more surprised if he doesn't get a Tour stge than does.

He's older than Cav and I'd love to know on what basis he's very close.

I expect him to get a tour stages at some point purely on the basis that getting 10 top 5s over a few years means you're likely to get lucky at some point, but to claim he's very very close to Cav (i.e. when both in form, would win 3 or 4 out of 10) is wishful thinking. Cav was 5-0 in the tour against him, and won the points jersey in Spain, losing the last stage against Tyler with a broken spoke.

There is so much variability and luck in sprinting that to be able to win consistently implies a massive gap in ability, compared to say, climbing, where the length of effort mitigates against random chance impacting the result.

Until anyone who regularly watches cycling is in the position that they can watch a sprint with those 2 and not strongly expect Cav to win, claiming they're very close is just silly.

 

[taiwan]

He's older than Cav and I'd love to know on what basis he's very close.

Wins? Consistency?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Wins? Consistency?

When they're both fit, both racing, and it's an important race, Cav still wins >80% of the time, and until that changes, Tyler's not that close.

Tyler's a great rider, but I don't think we need to pad his ego pretending he's nearly as good as someone who consistently beats him when it matters.


And if we're going to talk wins and consistency, let's try have a look at reality. Last year was the best of Farrar's career, and the worst of Cav's. Let's compare -

Tyler -
1st Overall Delta Tour Zeeland
1st Vattenfall Cyclassics
1st Stage 2 Giro d'Italia
1st Stage 10 Giro d'Italia
1st Grote Scheldeprijs
1st Stage 3A Three Days of De Panne
1st Stage 5 Vuelta a España
1st Stage 21 Vuelta a España
5th Tour of Flanders


Cav -

Volta a Catalunya
1st, Stage 2 [18]
Tour de Romandie
1st, Stage 2
Tour of California
1st, Stage 1
Tour de France
1st, Stage 5 [19]
1st, Stage 6 [20]
1st, Stage 11 [21]
1st, Stage 18 [22]
1st, Stage 20 [23]
Vuelta a España
1st Points Classification
1st, Stage 1 Team Time Trial
1st, Stage 12
1st, Stage 13
1st, Stage 18


I could go further back, but the comparison would only become silly.

 

[The Hitch]

He's older than Cav and I'd love to know on what basis he's very close.

I expect him to get a tour stages at some point purely on the basis that getting 10 top 5s over a few years means you're likely to get lucky at some point, but to claim he's very very close to Cav (i.e. when both in form, would win 3 or 4 out of 10) is wishful thinking. Cav was 5-0 in the tour against him, and won the points jersey in Spain, losing the last stage against Tyler with a broken spoke.

Cav is clearly better than Farrar, but i think its a tad unfair to mention that 5-0 from the Tour. Especially if you say that Cav lost to Farrar in Madrid because of a broken spoke.

THis is because Farrar, as i recall, broke his wrist in Ardennes stage 2 and had to smash and bust that broken wrist through stage 3 over cobbles.

So farrar was in no position to contest the sprints against Cav, even if Cav would have likely won most of them anyway.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cav is clearly better than Farrar, but i think its a tad unfair to mention that 5-0 from the Tour. Especially if you say that Cav lost to Farrar in Madrid because of a broken spoke.

THis is because Farrar, as i recall, broke his wrist in Ardennes stage 2 and had to smash and bust that broken wrist through stage 3 over cobbles.

So farrar was in no position to contest the sprints against Cav, even if Cav would have likely won most of them anyway.

Fair enough, they both had bouts of crap luck last year, and it may well be that Tyler is now very close - I just don't think we have any evidence of that from actual races yet.

 

[taiwan]

When they're both fit, both racing, and it's an important race, Cav still wins >80% of the time, and until that changes, Tyler's not that close.

Looking at the Vuelta, where they were both fit and it mattered, Cav won <80% of the time. 2010 wasn't the worst year of Cav's career. Farrar is improving year on year, despite his age. Farrar would likely be the second most fancied rider in a random sprint: no.2 next to Cavendish. Farrar's better ability to make a finale will be relevant if it translates into victories. These days, wacthing them both in contention I can see it going either way, Cav being the more likely winner. But I'm not just spouting Farrar hype- I agree ther's too much of that. You have to admit Farrar's basically no.2 sprinter, and improving. Petacchi would prolly be the best alternative, but I reckon Farrar is the one. Greipel still has to make his case.

"Very very close" was going a little too far I admit. I fully expect them to have comparable levels of sucess this season.

Tyler -
1st Overall Delta Tour Zeeland
1st Vattenfall Cyclassics
1st Stage 2 Giro d'Italia
1st Stage 10 Giro d'Italia
1st Grote Scheldeprijs
1st Stage 3A Three Days of De Panne
1st Stage 5 Vuelta a España
1st Stage 21 Vuelta a España

Cav -
1st, Volta a Catalunya Stage 2 [18]
1st, Tour de Romandie Stage 2
1st, Tour of California Stage 1
1st, Tour de France Stage 5 [19]
1st, Stage 6 [20]
1st, Stage 11 [21]
1st, Stage 18 [22]
1st, Stage 20 [23]
1st Vuelta a España Points Classification
1st, Stage 12
1st, Stage 13
1st, Stage 18

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Looking at the Vuelta, where they were both fit and it mattered, Cav won <80% of the time. 2010 wasn't the worst year of Cav's career. Farrar is improving year on year, despite his age. Farrar would likely be the second most fancied rider in a random sprint: no.2 next to Cavendish. Farrar's better ability to make a finale will be relevant if it translates into victories. These days, wacthing them both in contention I can see it going either way, Cav being the more likely winner. But I'm not just spouting Farrar hype- I agree ther's too much of that. You have to admit Farrar's basically no.2 sprinter, and improving. Petacchi would prolly be the best alternative, but I reckon Farrar is the one. Greipel still has to make his case.

"Very very close" was going a little too far I admit. I fully expect them to have comparable levels of sucess this season.

I've never denied Tyler is number 2 - that's obvious - I just doubt he's really that close.

I'm not convinced the Vuelta is that great a basis to deny the 80% win ratio - apart from being extremely selective, the ratio could easily have been exactly 80% were it not for a broken spoke.

Clearly we see things differently if you expect it to go either way - personally I am surprised if Tyler beats Cav. The nature of sprinting is so random and so time limited that there is little room to make up for bad luck, poor positioning and so on. As such in order to dominate to the extent Cav does, he needs to be better than his competition by a far greater margin than say, Contador would need to be to get a similar win% on climbs.

If they're both sprinting side by side down the Champs Elysees, I completely expect Cav to be moving away at a relative 1 or 2mph past Tyler.

 

[taiwan]

I'm not convinced the Vuelta is that great a basis to deny the 80% win ratio - apart from being extremely selective, the ratio could easily have been exactly 80% were it not for a broken spoke.

As the Hitch pointed out if ther's an asterisk on the Vuelta victoy with Cav's spoke, there must be an asterisk on most of the Tour also, with Tyler's wrist. Still wouldn't be >80%.

A lot of factors practical and psychological contribute to the outcome of a sprint. For me it looks like Farrar is getting a lot of them dialled in. I don't know what Cav's going to pull out of the bag to stop Farrar gaining on him. Cav has the disadvantage being the standard to shoot for. I don't think it should be a graet surprise if another rider comes onto terms with him for one reason or another.

The Garvelo merger is significant to the coming season as well. That's two teams with some sort of rivalry with HTC rolled into one. The team's pretty stacked with classicists: they shouldn't be lacking wattage or expertise for a sprint train.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

As the Hitch pointed out if ther's an asterisk on the Vuelta victoy with Cav's spoke, there must be an asterisk on most of the Tour also, with Tyler's wrist.

A lot of factors practical and psychological contribute to the outcome of a sprint. For me it looks like Farrar is getting a lot of them dialled in. I don't know what Cav's going to pull out of the bag to stop Farrar gaining on him. Cav has the disadvantage being the standard to shoot for. I don't think it should be a graet surprise if another rider comes onto terms with him for one reason or another.

I think being quicker will probably be enough in that regard.

Tyler is better on cobbles.
Tyler is better on hills.
Tyler is better over proper climbs.
Cav has more acceleration.
Cav has a higher top speed. (I know it's fashionable to assume that he gets by on acceleration and his top end is comparable, but anyone who actually watches the overheads on sprints critically can tell that particular folk wisdom is wrong).

Plain and simple, Cav is much smaller, and much better at making himself small, and until another sprinter takes the trouble to be as aerodynamic as Cav makes himself, they won't beat him with any consistency.

 

[Boeing]

Why do you always use 2 personal pronouns in the first 3 words of every post ozpsychofan69?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Plain and simple, Cav is much smaller, and much better at making himself small, and until another sprinter takes the trouble to be as aerodynamic as Cav makes himself, they won't beat him with any consistency.

In that case it'll be interesting to see how Guardini is doing in a few years. Judging by photos he looks like a borderline midget.

 

[Eric8-A]

I think being quicker will probably be enough in that regard.

Tyler is better on cobbles.
Tyler is better on hills.
Tyler is better over proper climbs.
Cav has more acceleration.
Cav has a higher top speed. (I know it's fashionable to assume that he gets by on acceleration and his top end is comparable, but anyone who actually watches the overheads on sprints critically can tell that particular folk wisdom is wrong).

Plain and simple, Cav is much smaller, and much better at making himself small, and until another sprinter takes the trouble to be as aerodynamic as Cav makes himself, they won't beat him with any consistency.

Alan said in '09 I think that Tyler was a better all rounder than Cavendish. He climbs better than Cavendish, he can ride cobbles better than Cavendish, and he can do a time trial better than Cavendish and we've seen that in last year's Tour prologue and the '09 Vuelta prologue.
Not sure if it's the fact that Tyler focuses on both sprints and bettering his classics pedigree that puts him off on getting the best of Cavendish.

The one thing I have noticed is that Tyler does not stay on Julian's wheel for too long, compared to how long Cavendish stays on Renshaw's wheel. Tyler seems to draft off Jules and then gets off his wheel and sometimes goes to Cavendish's wheel. I would thing Tyler would have a better shot at beating Cavendish if he stays with his own leadout man. Of course this doesn't mean that Tyler will win all the time if he does, I'm just saying he'd win more if he does that.

 

[ingsve]

Getting closer and closer between Garmin and HTC. 9-6 now with the win from Degelkolb. And had he been DQed it would have been 10-5. Looking like this could be a nice seasonlong fight between the teams.

 

[Raceoftruth]

Whats the score now?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

2-0, but that's because Farrar competeted with C-level sprinters in Mallorca. While Cavendish was beaten by the new master sprinter Theo Bos in Oman