Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms:Where legends are made

[TheGreenMonkey]

Will Kruijswijk or Hesdejal try and get in the break? That should get a reaction as they are now not far from the top ten and might lead to a very high pace at start. Then it just needs someone to show some weakness to give teams an incentive to push on and we have an epic stage even if Contador does not come prepared to attack.

There is also the battle for the mountains classification that might lead there to be a real battle between Movistar and others as to who makes the break.

It could also be a quite a boring day where a reasonable break goes away quickly and is allowed to fight the stage while Astana, resigned to not winning, and Contador, not needing to attack, are happy to look at each other and ride a slowish tempo up the Mortirolo that leaves 70 riders over the top and a little bit of a sprint at the finish line.

 

[coppino]

If they want to attack Contador it is to be done with a hard hard pull in Tonale, then Kangert to set the pace downhill, then in the first aprica strong pull in the first hard kms, and halfway to the gpm, provided no Tinkoff is there to pace Alberto (very possible after the last show) Landa has to attack. Then see what happens.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

There's a lot of expectation about Motirolo, but lets not forget that Zoncolon last year was fairly uneventful. Astana have to isolate AC earlier, not just near the end, and then attack him in turn, not just work for him. No doubt Vino is 'giving instructions' today, lol.
Kruiswuik, Betancur, Trofimov possibles for the stage if given enough time. Amador to hang in there.

Zoncolon was the final stage, and Quintana had already won a couple of stages and just had to watch Uran and Aru. This is following a rest day and the first day of a brutal week. Landa looks very strong. Contador wants a win and some good news for Bertie is that Rogers won that Zoncolon stage. Kreuziger, Rogers, and Basso to go in the break.

That will likely be the only way Contador will see any of his teammates on the final climb.

 

[Billie]

Re:

If they want to attack Contador it is to be done with a hard hard pull in Tonale, then Kangert to set the pace downhill, then in the first aprica strong pull in the first hard kms, and halfway to the gpm, provided no Tinkoff is there to pace Alberto (very possible after the last show) Landa has to attack. Then see what happens.

Good luck dropping guys like Kreuziger, Rogers and Basso on the Tonale

 

[coppino]

Re: Re:

If they want to attack Contador it is to be done with a hard hard pull in Tonale, then Kangert to set the pace downhill, then in the first aprica strong pull in the first hard kms, and halfway to the gpm, provided no Tinkoff is there to pace Alberto (very possible after the last show) Landa has to attack. Then see what happens.

Good luck dropping guys like Kreuziger, Rogers and Basso on the Tonale

Not easy, of course, it depends on wether they are in good conditions or not. Judging from the Daone, there are at least 25-30 riders better than Roman and Mike, and 6 are Astana, so who know... one thing is certain, if they want really try every stage to beat contador they have to try this way because attacking on Mortirolo is too risky.

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

If they want to attack Contador it is to be done with a hard hard pull in Tonale, then Kangert to set the pace downhill, then in the first aprica strong pull in the first hard kms, and halfway to the gpm, provided no Tinkoff is there to pace Alberto (very possible after the last show) Landa has to attack. Then see what happens.

Good luck dropping guys like Kreuziger, Rogers and Basso on the Tonale

Basso goof can be dropped on a motorway bridge these days. Joke of a rider!

 

[Dedelou]

Re: Re:

Astana to do most of the work with the Tinkoff brigade disappearing after the first 20 kilometers except for Contador, who will ride the Astana train until Landa attacks at the base of the Mortirolo. Alberto to follow and to inflict so much physical and psychological pain on Mikel that the later falls into a deep depression. Landa is later found in a mental institution somewhere in western Mongolia showing severe signs of regression, laying in the fetal position asking for his mother's tit.

Seems quite unlikely.

right you are. most of the mental institutions in that country are located much to the north

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

If they want to attack Contador it is to be done with a hard hard pull in Tonale, then Kangert to set the pace downhill, then in the first aprica strong pull in the first hard kms, and halfway to the gpm, provided no Tinkoff is there to pace Alberto (very possible after the last show) Landa has to attack. Then see what happens.

Good luck dropping guys like Kreuziger, Rogers and Basso on the Tonale

I think you are underestimating Tonale as well as campo carlo magno. These climbs would both be 1st category in any other race of the world. We saw tinkoff saxo fading after astana pulled hard on daone so its very likely that astana can isolate alberto again if they give everything on the first two passes and also in aprica, because this new aprica route with one kilometer which has a gain of over 11% could also cause problems for some riders
ps: Basso? I think this year cavendish would be a better domestique in the mountains than basso.

 

[No_Balls]

Re: Re:

Yeh. No need to overestimate Basso. He'd been dropped on the TT-ramp if there was one

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Not sure, but somehow im afraid we will get to see this stage wasted.

Landa must attack on Mortirolo, if not Astana are a bunch of p*ssies.

Landa's aspirations might not be Astana's aspirations. If it happens Aru could be dropped.

 

[Lexman]

Re:

Astana to do most of the work with the Tinkoff brigade disappearing after the first 20 kilometers except for Contador, who will ride the Astana train until Landa attacks at the base of the Mortirolo. Alberto to follow and to inflict so much physical and psychological pain on Mikel that the later falls into a deep depression. Landa is later found in a mental institution somewhere in western Mongolia showing severe signs of regression, laying in the fetal position asking for his mother's tit.

LOL something like this....

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Will Kruijswijk or Hesdejal try and get in the break? That should get a reaction as they are now not far from the top ten and might lead to a very high pace at start. Then it just needs someone to show some weakness to give teams an incentive to push on and we have an epic stage even if Contador does not come prepared to attack.

There is also the battle for the mountains classification that might lead there to be a real battle between Movistar and others as to who makes the break.

It could also be a quite a boring day where a reasonable break goes away quickly and is allowed to fight the stage while Astana, resigned to not winning, and Contador, not needing to attack, are happy to look at each other and ride a slowish tempo up the Mortirolo that leaves 70 riders over the top and a little bit of a sprint at the finish line.

I'm afraid Kruiswijk goes full in to regression and starts to follow the GC men from now on just to get into the top 10.
He should attack ofcourse, try to win a stage.

 

[Tank Engine]

Re:

Will Kruijswijk or Hesdejal try and get in the break? That should get a reaction as they are now not far from the top ten and might lead to a very high pace at start. Then it just needs someone to show some weakness to give teams an incentive to push on and we have an epic stage even if Contador does not come prepared to attack.

There is also the battle for the mountains classification that might lead there to be a real battle between Movistar and others as to who makes the break.

It could also be a quite a boring day where a reasonable break goes away quickly and is allowed to fight the stage while Astana, resigned to not winning, and Contador, not needing to attack, are happy to look at each other and ride a slowish tempo up the Mortirolo that leaves 70 riders over the top and a little bit of a sprint at the finish line.

OK, the second part is a joke.

The key to the success of a breakaway is not whether Kruijswijk, Hesjedal or some particular Movistar rider is in the breakaway or not (although all of these are pretty likely), it depends on the balance of power in the breakaway between Tinkoff and Astana and whether Tinkoff hold together as a team in the initial stages (there's no way that Astana falls apart, apart from food poisoning). Astana will want to get guys ahead so they can join up with an attacker (realistically speaking, Landa) or protect Aru after the Mortirolo. Tinkoff's goal will be to stop that happening or at least ensure they have their own guy(s) up there.

Contador's only real rivals are the Astana two-headed hydra. Astana have been clearly stronger than Tinkoff and there is a hard week left, so no way have they given up yet. Landa is as strong on the climbs as (or possibly marginally stronger than) Contador. Aru is slightly weaker, but closer in the GC, Italian and a proven competitor in the Giro, so unless he cracks is the natural leader. The only way that Landa wins is by attacking from relatively far out (this stage is ideal for this) and the attack sticking (for this Bertie needs to be isolated and Landa needs help from the top of the Mortirolo, again this is the ideal stage for this). The only way that Aru can win is by being able to stick to Bertie after a Landa attack and be able to attack if Bertie weakens. I would say that neither of these scenarios are likely due to Contador's strength and experience, but let's say they're possible. Hence, Aru's and Landa's goals are to some degree aligned. They would both prefer that someone from their team would win, but obviously they can't both win.

The start will be crazy as it's the day after a rest day and uphill from the start. I'm going to assume that a breakaway forms in which the balance of power between Astana and Tinkoff is even or slightly in the favour of Astana and Tinkoff don't fall apart before the beginning of the Mortirolo (the end of the opening).

The key to the stage is Mortirolo, the middle game. It's steep and long and there's no real advantage from drafting. After the initial charge, the weak links will have been eliminated and if Contador does not attack, at some point Astana's strength will be clearly greater than Tinkoff's. By this point, it will pay Contador to attack and climb at his own tempo. On the basis of the strengths of the riders and the GC situation, this will be less tiring than reacting to alternating attacks. I will assume that this tempo will be comfortable (relatively speaking) for Landa, but uncomfortable or unattainable by Aru. At the top of the Mortirolo, either Landa will be ahead of Bertie after an attack or with him and Aru will either be behind or hanging on for dear life. If Bertie is with Landa, then apart from the steep section at the beginning of the Aprica, everything is in his favour. The only problem happens if Landa is ahead and has support (I'm assuming that Aru will have support if he is behind). In this case, race on. I would say here though that after the Mortirolo Bertie would probabily be able to turn a fairly even situation to his advantage.

My prediction: Either Landa or Contador, but I'll go for Contador.

 

[Alcanelo]

Landa will bonk hard tomorrow...

 

[SeriousSam]

Astana can either consolidate 2nd and get Landa on the podium as well, or take unthinkable risks (like their winner, if they win, not being Italian) and fight for 1st.

To be perfectly honest, I hope they are cowards who ride for 2nd and 3rd, allowing Contador to just ride in Aru's and Landa's wheel behind the Astana train, saving energy. Because if they are daring, he might have to go deep. And that would harm the entertainment value of the much greater and grander race that comes after the Giro, the Tour.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Astana can either consolidate 2nd and get Landa on the podium as well, or take unthinkable risks (like their winner, if they win, not being Italian) and fight for 1st.

To be perfectly honest, I hope they are cowards who ride for 2nd and 3rd, allowing Contador to just ride in Aru's and Landa's wheel behind the Astana train, saving energy. Because if they are daring, he might have to go deep. And that would harm the entertainment value of the much greater and grander race that comes after the Giro, the Tour.

I doubt that this years tour would benefit more from a good contador than this years giro would benefit from astana fighting for the win.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Re: Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms:Where legends are mad

Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms MTF
..What's left of the peloton will then enter a long downhill to enter the racing circuit on Edolo. Luckily for us, and unluckily for the riders, this is not your average circuit.

As a both cycling - and motor racing fan for the past 35 years, I thought you referenced to a motor racing circuit, so I got curious. In fact Google Maps/Earth reveals some closed asphalt track in Edolo which looks pretty much like a "mini Enna Pergusa".

 

[Red Rick]

Lol, was more referring to it as a circuit often seen at the end of flat stages or criteriums, which are only there to break claviculae. And to talk more trying to make a worthy stage thread for the queen stage, seeing as the greatest stage hypers on this forum seem to have retired from that function

 

[Mr.White]

Igor Anton to win from the breakaway!

 

[LPP68!]

Re: Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms:Where legends are mad

Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms MTF
..What's left of the peloton will then enter a long downhill to enter the racing circuit on Edolo. Luckily for us, and unluckily for the riders, this is not your average circuit.

As a both cycling - and motor racing fan for the past 35 years, I thought you referenced to a motor racing circuit, so I got curious. In fact Google Maps/Earth reveals some closed asphalt track which looks pretty much like a "mini Enna Pergusa" in Edolo

I guess you spotted this water reservoir

 

[fauniera]

Re: Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms:Where legends are mad

Stage 16: Pinzolo – Aprica 177 kms MTF
..What's left of the peloton will then enter a long downhill to enter the racing circuit on Edolo. Luckily for us, and unluckily for the riders, this is not your average circuit.

As a both cycling - and motor racing fan for the past 35 years, I thought you referenced to a motor racing circuit, so I got curious. In fact Google Maps/Earth reveals some closed asphalt track which looks pretty much like a "mini Enna Pergusa" in Edolo

I guess you spotted this water reservoir

That's not Enna-Pergusa, that's the Sopraelevata from Monza.

 

[trevim]

Before this Giro, looking at the standing I would say Contador had this won but Astana has been in some crazy form so I don't really know what to expect.... On one hand I would love to see Contador shining on the mythical Mortirolo, on the other I just hope he doesn't lose pink. Tinkoff was so bad Sunday that I doubt they can do worse now, at least Kreuz and Rogers should last until the foot of the beast.... We'll see, a shame I have to work through this but Alberto for the win

 

[webvan]

Bad memories...Simoni getting dropped by Robobasso after being asked to "cough up some cash" to get the victory in 2006 and then by Sella in 2008. Can't wait for 1PM tomorrow though!

 

[manafana]

The finish been much easier than nearly any of the other climbs of the day makes it pretty interesting, Kruijswijk is the man on my lips for this one

 

[The Barb]

I strongly doubt the breakaway's chances but I'd like to see Sylvester Szmyd try. At 37yo he isn't going to get many more chances to win a Grand Tour Stage and this is a rare occasion in his career when he can ride for himself. In 2010 he rode the Mortirolo extremely strongly, basically winning the race for Basso.

I do think it'll be a GC contenders stage, however. Landa to get another.