Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[Netserk]

If these calculations were correct, then Pog is 7% better than his previous best power-wise and Jonas is 5% better. But what Jonas also said “almost go as far as to say” when asked if this was his best performance ever? So what is it - almost best or 5% better than the second best?

Today he clarified that it was his best ever W/kg, but as he weights less after his crash, he is not sure if he pushed more Watts in absolute terms.

It is indeed insane how big an outlier this performance was. We are trying to tell you that. The time gaps down to 5th and blow are also insane, in line with the best getting more powerful overnight.

 

[bNator]

Today he clarified that it was his best ever W/kg, but as he weights less after his crash, he is not sure if he pushed more Watts in absolute terms.

It is indeed insane how big an outlier this performance was. We are trying to tell you that. The time gaps down to 5th and blow are also insane, in line with the best getting more powerful overnight.

Ok best but again, by how much? I mean it can't be 5 f*** percents If Jonas is doping, he was also doping during last years TT. He can't be so much more doped this year that it's 5% better than that one

 

[Netserk]

Ok best but again, by how much? I mean it can't be 5 f*** percents If Jonas is doping, he was also doping during last years TT. He can't be so much more doped this year that it's 5% better than that one

The more I check it, the more confident I get despite my initial disbelief. Yes, they improved by more than 5 % overnight. Run the numbers, check different sources. It checks out.

 

[NOT_NORMAL]

You have to appreciate Vingegaard being so open about his performances.

Remember the p ansies from Sky claiming Froome did like 5.8W/Kg or whatever after he destroyed the field?

In contrast, Vingegaard, a few weeks after leaving the ICU:

"My best performance ever."

"7W/Kg? Correct."

A Clinic hero?

 

[Tim Cahill]

You have to appreciate Vingegaard being so open about his performances.

Remember the p ansies from Sky claiming Froome did like 5.8W/Kg or whatever after he destroyed the field?

In contrast, Vingegaard, a few weeks after leaving the ICU:

"My best performance ever."

"7W/Kg? correct."

A Clinic hero?

Ah the isometric chainring on LPDBF, I think Dawg still uses it.

 

[NFTtiddies]

They're doing a favor to all the other riders who are too scared to fully commit to the gear train.

 

[bNator]

The more I check it, the more confident I get despite my initial disbelief. Yes, they improved by more than 5 % overnight. Run the numbers, check different sources. It checks out.

Ok went to Pog's Strava segment for Beille and did a calculation for the final 5 km of that segment, just after Pog attacked Vinge. I get an average power of 6.81 W/kg for that segment. This is assuming no wind and no draft. For the entire climb, you get 6.57 - again no draft effect considered (which would lower the value) but also no slope&pace irregularities (which would make it higher)...

Of course I don't know many of the exact parameters, so here's the python code to play along if anyone wants to (add wind effect etc..):

import math

# simulation parameters
g = 9.8067
crr = 0.0023
CdA = 0.24
Rho = 1.11
drivetrain_efficiency = 0.98

# route parameters
distance = 5000
altitude_diff = 359
time_delta = 11*60 + 32

# rider parameters
rider_weight = 65
bike_weight = 7.8
other_stuff_weight = 0.5

gradient_percent = altitude_diff / distance * 100
speed_avg = distance / time_delta
system_weight = rider_weight + bike_weight + other_stuff_weight

F_g = g * math.sin(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight
F_rr = g * math.cos(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight * crr
F_wr = 0.5 * CdA * Rho * speed_avg * speed_avg

P = (F_g + F_rr + F_wr) * speed_avg / drivetrain_efficiency
p_per_kilo = P / rider_weight

print(p_per_kilo)

P.S. If there's any python coder out there, I know the code is terrible, I only use python for fooling around...

 

[proffate]

Re; Aero gains from bikes, from expert Alban Lorenzini. The gains from aerobikes on flat/fast sections of courses are pretty substantial, but this drops at lower speeds.

Antoine: As soon as it slows down, in the passes, the equipment plays less and less role, so the gains and the gaps between modern bikes and equipment compared to the 2000s are rapidly reduced?

Alban Lorenzini;
After 20 km/h or even 25 km/h, which is a speed often reached by pros even on climbs of more than 5%, the aerodynamic and rolling gains can add up a little. Compared to the 2000s and at 25 km/h, we could estimate at more than 5 watts in aero on bikes. Nevertheless, the 5 aero watts of bikes are open to discussion. Some mountain bikes like the Cervelo R5 from Visma have very few aerodynamic improvements, apart from the integration of cables on the cockpit (one-piece handlebar + stem). Pogacar does not have an ultra "fast" bike either. We can estimate a gain of 2 or 3 watts at 25 km/h. He rides most of the time with high wheels to compensate a little for this lack of speed.

Aero bikes get all the attention but it's the clothing that really matters, and that has noticeably improved imo. The entire package of wheels, clothing, helmets, handlebars, etc absolutely have to make some difference. And Pogacar went up Plateau de Beille at 24 km/h (!!).

Rolling resistance also scales with speed, and has notably improved recently due to better tires and a focus on marginal gains (for decades it was just weight).

I believe there was a somewhat recent test of a circa 2015 Cervelo S5 and it was superior aerodynamically to many current crop aero bikes, it was also considerably lighter.

Weight can't be different due to the UCI limit. Tires then were slower. The frame may have been just as fast, but frame is the least important part of the equation. And that bike was way less comfortable, I don't think they ever would have used it for a 5000kj day in the mountains.

I mean I'm a little sick to my stomach over these ungodly performances but the tech actually has moved forward after many decades of stagnation.

 

[Monoxidator]

Ok went to Pog's Strava segment for Beille and did a calculation for the final 5 km of that segment, just after Pog attacked Vinge. I get an average power of 6,81 W/kg for that segment. This is assuming no wind and no draft. Of course I don't know many of the exact parameters, so here's the python code to play along if anyone wants to (add wind effect etc..):

import math

# simulation parameters
g = 9.8067
crr = 0.0023
CdA = 0.24
Rho = 1.11
drivetrain_efficiency = 0.98

# route parameters
distance = 5000
altitude_diff = 359
time_delta = 11*60 + 32

# rider parameters
rider_weight = 65
bike_weight = 7.8
other_stuff_weight = 0.5

gradient_percent = altitude_diff / distance * 100
speed_avg = distance / time_delta
system_weight = rider_weight + bike_weight + other_stuff_weight

F_g = g * math.sin(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight
F_rr = g * math.cos(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight * crr
F_wr = 0.5 * CdA * Rho * speed_avg * speed_avg

P = (F_g + F_rr + F_wr) * speed_avg / drivetrain_efficiency
p_per_kilo = P / rider_weight

print(p_per_kilo)

P.S. If there's any python coder out there, I know the code is terrible, I only use python for fooling around...

I am, the code is fine tbh. It's simple calculations.

 

[Red Rick]

Today he clarified that it was his best ever W/kg, but as he weights less after his crash, he is not sure if he pushed more Watts in absolute terms.

It is indeed insane how big an outlier this performance was. We are trying to tell you that. The time gaps down to 5th and blow are also insane, in line with the best getting more powerful overnight.

The guys losing 6 minutes actually doing normal to actually good power numbers for this climb is what really drives home how insane this is.

 

[Monoxidator]

The guys losing 6 minutes actually doing normal to actually good power numbers for this climb is what really drives home how insane this is.

lol, but "They didn't get the benefit of Jorgenson's insane leadout"

 

[Red Rick]

lol, but "They didn't get the benefit of Jorgenson's insane leadout"

*** Jorgenson wasn't the one doing 7 W/kg IIRC.

 

[Floatstick]

Aero bikes get all the attention but it's the clothing that really matters, and that has noticeably improved imo. The entire package of wheels, clothing, helmets, handlebars, etc absolutely have to make some difference. And Pogacar went up Plateau de Beille at 24 km/h (!!).

I am a frequent reader here, first time poster. But I joined because I’ve been seeing a lot of comments lately about how aerodynamic improvements are contributing to these performances.

Aero no doubt gets better and better, but every single quantification of the actual difference it makes in a bike race I’ve ever seen has been a full blown guess. Having designed control surfaces for aircraft most of my life I can assure you that no one is actually modeling out any of this bike stuff with any degree of accuracy, nor is that even possible to do.

 

[repoman]

I am a frequent reader here, first time poster. But I joined because I’ve been seeing a lot of comments lately about how aerodynamic improvements are contributing to these performances.

Aero no doubt gets better and better, but every single quantification of the actual difference it makes in a bike race I’ve ever seen has been a full blown guess. Having designed control surfaces for aircraft most of my life I can assure you that no one is actually modeling out any of this bike stuff with any degree of accuracy, nor is that even possible to do.

Bbb..bbut Jeff from Silca said if I wear $70 dollar socks I will save 40w!

 

[zlev11]

Why didn't they have the same power on Pla d'Adet?! Is it something one-off, or with drawbacks for the next stage? Was it about not tipping off the others and hoping to be the only one with that weapon on PdB? It all makes little sense.

maybe the bike x-ray machine couldn't make it to the top of PdB?

 

[Taxus4a]

I ve been reading about San Millan. It is normal people has his doubts and questions, but maybe he is just the best and doesnt need any doping to make people fly. Alava is close to my house, so I am proud people from here are so important. We have a very bad past in doping issues in Spain, but who knows, and I believe that, this is just legal science.

Anyway, and without any Knowledge about how it is works...if not all the teams can reach this techonogy and the efect is not the same for everybody, we are at the same efects in fact to sport performance than doping.

For me better, becouse it is legal and surely better for health, and teams have to have his freadom to get his riders the best way prepared by legal methods...an ethicaly is better, but in fact is some way is to come back to the doping era, no totally , but quite similar. But as it is legal, I will forget this in someway and enjoy cycling.

 

[solo80k]

Ok went to Pog's Strava segment for Beille and did a calculation for the final 5 km of that segment, just after Pog attacked Vinge. I get an average power of 6.81 W/kg for that segment. This is assuming no wind and no draft. For the entire climb, you get 6.57 - again no draft effect considered (which would lower the value) but also no slope&pace irregularities (which would make it higher)...

Of course I don't know many of the exact parameters, so here's the python code to play along if anyone wants to (add wind effect etc..):

import math

# simulation parameters
g = 9.8067
crr = 0.0023
CdA = 0.24
Rho = 1.11
drivetrain_efficiency = 0.98

# route parameters
distance = 5000
altitude_diff = 359
time_delta = 11*60 + 32

# rider parameters
rider_weight = 65
bike_weight = 7.8
other_stuff_weight = 0.5

gradient_percent = altitude_diff / distance * 100
speed_avg = distance / time_delta
system_weight = rider_weight + bike_weight + other_stuff_weight

F_g = g * math.sin(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight
F_rr = g * math.cos(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight * crr
F_wr = 0.5 * CdA * Rho * speed_avg * speed_avg

P = (F_g + F_rr + F_wr) * speed_avg / drivetrain_efficiency
p_per_kilo = P / rider_weight

print(p_per_kilo)

P.S. If there's any python coder out there, I know the code is terrible, I only use python for fooling around...

Not only it's a terrible code, it's probably a terrible code from ChatGPT or other LLM. Am I right?

 

[Red Rick]

Does anyone have an idea how much day to day variation there can be in air density due to pressure/temperature combination?

 

[bNator]

Not only it's a terrible code, it's probably a terrible code from ChatGPT or other LLM. Am I right?

Why would you assume that? I doubt ChatGPT would make caps errors when declaring constants😁 That’s quite a compliment, to be honest…

It’s just a simple analytical solution of cycling power computation - there are many sources over the web to confirm it. Other than disregarding drag effect and wind, it should be correct for the chosen parameters.

And even drag is basically just multiplying wind resistance component by some value like 0.8 while wind would be adding/subtracting perpendicular projection of wind vector to that same component…

 

[solo80k]

Why would you assume that? I doubt ChatGPT would make caps errors when declaring constants😁 That’s quite a compliment, to be honest…

Well, maybe it's just written in a strange way.

 

[bNator]

Well, maybe it's just written in a strange way.

If you run it, it should work…

 

[Brullnux]

The cycling media environment was very different in 2007. They don't have to make outright allegations for the tune to be starkly different to the current one.

Right now, it has become common to outright claim that all the top riders are clean, that the peloton is the cleanest it has ever been. There's no toleration for any scepticism.

I agree but I'd add in a couple more factors for why I think this is the case: accusation fatigue, and changes in how journalism and media is viewed in generam society.

I think there's an element of "not again..." to ignoring rides like Pogacar's, and I personally understand it. An element of, there was all this drama, all these cases, and nothing appears to have changed. So why bother?

Plus, investigative or hard journalism is long gone. In politics as well as cycling, if you're annoying and ask interesting questions or go deeper into an issue as a journalist, you lose access to riders/teams/politicians. It also costs more money than churning out race reports or fun tiktok interviews, and there's an attempt by media to be very pally with teams and riders (which allows for better "content", like the Netflix show or current pros commentating).

 

[Red Rick]

I agree but I'd add in a couple more factors for why I think this is the case: accusation fatigue, and changes in how journalism and media is viewed in generam society.

I think there's an element of "not again..." to ignoring rides like Pogacar's, and I personally understand it. An element of, there was all this drama, all these cases, and nothing appears to have changed. So why bother?

Plus, investigative or hard journalism is long gone. In politics as well as cycling, if you're annoying and ask interesting questions or go deeper into an issue as a journalist, you lose access to riders/teams/politicians. It also costs more money than churning out race reports or fun tiktok interviews, and there's an attempt by media to be very pally with teams and riders (which allows for better "content", like the Netflix show or current pros commentating).

I really don't believe it's accusation fatigue. I think popularity of the rider is much more important. And people like the current racing.

 

[Mr. 64%]

I ve been reading about San Millan. It is normal people has his doubts and questions, but maybe he is just the best and doesnt need any doping to make people fly. Alava is close to my house, so I am proud people from here are so important. We have a very bad past in doping issues in Spain, but who knows, and I believe that, this is just legal science.

Anyway, and without any Knowledge about how it is works...if not all the teams can reach this techonogy and the efect is not the same for everybody, we are at the same efects in fact to sport performance than doping.

For me better, becouse it is legal and surely better for health, and teams have to have his freadom to get his riders the best way prepared by legal methods...an ethicaly is better, but in fact is some way is to come back to the doping era, no totally , but quite similar. But as it is legal, I will forget this in someway and enjoy cycling.

If anything, i think history has taught us that not everyone responds the same.

With regards to San Milan, it's normal that people call BS on him. Honestly. Riis had a full fledged blood programme while also having a publicly known testing programme in co-operation with Bispebjerg Hospital and Rasmus Damsgaard. Not everyone is as arrogantly dumb as Ferrari with his orange juice statement.

 

[Monoxidator]

A sport with a failed business model (or a nonexistent one) has been bailed out by money from a sportswashing government. Of course everyone that relies on the status quo to pay their bills is going to be reluctant to blow the whistle. The way this changes is likely with a police investigation, criminal charges etc, the same as it did 25 years ago. The MUCH less likely change agent would be a reinvented business model where the sport makes money without relying on the charity of sponsors.