Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[Penninepeddler]

Ahahaha. Pogi in L'Equipe when asked about the time:

"Six years ago, when I started, we focused mainly on starchy foods," Pogacar explained. "For breakfast, we mainly ate pasta, white rice and omelettes. Today, it's more varied, we have porridge, pancakes, omelettes, bread... These little things have made a difference and allowed us not to necessarily eat only pasta in the morning. But everything is weighed, everything is programmed for breakfast, for the stage, for after the stage."

And:

"The bikes are also so fast, the tyres really make a difference, the wheels, the aero frames. The bikes have evolved so much in the last five years."

I mean, #2 is just not very true is it? We know this. Especially in relation to climbs.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ahahaha. Pogi in L'Equipe when asked about the time:

"Six years ago, when I started, we focused mainly on starchy foods," Pogacar explained. "For breakfast, we mainly ate pasta, white rice and omelettes. Today, it's more varied, we have porridge, pancakes, omelettes, bread... These little things have made a difference and allowed us not to necessarily eat only pasta in the morning. But everything is weighed, everything is programmed for breakfast, for the stage, for after the stage."

And:

"The bikes are also so fast, the tyres really make a difference, the wheels, the aero frames. The bikes have evolved so much in the last five years."

I mean, #2 is just not very true is it? We know this. Especially in relation to climbs.

From tomorrow I'm starting to mix various forms of carbs in my diet. I'm trekking in the mountains now so I'm expecting a massive boost of uphill speed thanks to Teddy's tips!

 

[Penninepeddler]

From tomorrow I'm starting to mix various forms of carbs in my diet. I'm trekking in the mountains now so I'm expecting a massive boost of uphill speed thanks to Teddy's tips!

Man, I always avoided bread and porridge in the morning tbh. Bread always felt like it weighed me down and porridge is slop that makes me feel like a baby.

I am a pasta, muesli and omelette guy.

Guess some bread and porridge would have ensured that instead of topping out in my sport at u-17 NT level I would have gone to the Olympics! Lmao.

 

[Monoxidator]

Improved bikes don't increase the watts per kilo.

 

[Andon]

Porridge, pancakes, omelettes, bread... man, we're bound the see some very healthy tourists around the world as this hotel breakfast selection makes you strong for the day!

 

[ppanther92]

Improved bikes don't increase the watts per kilo.

Well, yes but in the outside-in-view calculation they do. And since we mostly discuss what Twitter users calculate based on times, and not actually power data, it does have an effect. I just fail to see where bikes should have gotten so much better over the past 5 years. Especially uphill where its less about aerodynamics and more about weight and bikes reach the minimum weight since decades already.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Re; Aero gains from bikes, from expert Alban Lorenzini. The gains from aerobikes on flat/fast sections of courses are pretty substantial, but this drops at lower speeds.

Antoine: As soon as it slows down, in the passes, the equipment plays less and less role, so the gains and the gaps between modern bikes and equipment compared to the 2000s are rapidly reduced?

Alban Lorenzini;
After 20 km/h or even 25 km/h, which is a speed often reached by pros even on climbs of more than 5%, the aerodynamic and rolling gains can add up a little. Compared to the 2000s and at 25 km/h, we could estimate at more than 5 watts in aero on bikes. Nevertheless, the 5 aero watts of bikes are open to discussion. Some mountain bikes like the Cervelo R5 from Visma have very few aerodynamic improvements, apart from the integration of cables on the cockpit (one-piece handlebar + stem). Pogacar does not have an ultra "fast" bike either. We can estimate a gain of 2 or 3 watts at 25 km/h. He rides most of the time with high wheels to compensate a little for this lack of speed.

 

[bNator]

This has probably already been discussed here, but still... The group of favourites started the climb 2:20 down on the breakaway and once Jonas attacked, their advantage was down to 40 seconds. So if Pantani waited with his attack until the similar point and his group was doing similar tempo (maybe even slower) to that of Sunday's breakaway, that's 1:40 we can subtract from their difference right away. And then he (Pantani) attacked solo which means his effort should be compared to that of Jonas rather than that of Pog, who was in Jonas's slipstream for half of their attack. And once we take 1:40 from Jonas's time, it's "only" 40 seconds on Pantani's time for Jonas while Pog got a bit more because he was in the slipstream and because he's better than Pantani. The rest is down to equipment, better training methodology and nutrition. Problem solved

 

[Netserk]

This has probably already been discussed here, but still... The group of favourites started the climb 2:20 down on the breakaway and once Jonas attacked, their advantage was down to 40 seconds. So if Pantani waited with his attack until the similar point and his group was doing similar tempo (maybe even slower) to that of Sunday's breakaway, that's 1:40 we can subtract from their difference right away. And then he (Pantani) attacked solo which means his effort should be compared to that of Jonas rather than that of Pog, who was in Jonas's slipstream for half of their attack. And once we take 1:40 from Jonas's time, it's "only" 40 seconds on Pantani's time for Jonas while Pog got a bit more because he was in the slipstream and because he's better than Pantani. The rest is down to equipment, better training methodology and nutrition. Problem solved

Even when you account for drafting, Pogi climbed Beille faster than Riis climbed Hautacam. Faster than Pantani's record on Alpe d'Huez. You read that right, more powerful than unlimited EPO.

 

[bNator]

Not sure what you're saying or if you're even serious, but Pantani is almost a red herring. They are riding these climbs like 5 minutes faster than the best climbers of 5 years ago, while also destroying the field in the TTs.

Half serious... What I am trying to say though, is that if we use comparison with Pantani as means to evaluate the risk of riders being doped, we shouldn't operate with 3:30 gap but due to the circumstances and context of the race, the realistic gap is much smaller. These were my suggested values: 0:40 to Vingegaard and 1:48 to Pogacar. I'm not sure if they are correct, of course. I don't know when exactly Pantani started the attack and I don't know how fast they went up to that point - I just assumed he attacked at a similar point on the climb and that the group used similar pace to that of our Sunday's breakaway. Maybe some guys here know some more...

 

[bNator]

Even when you account for drafting, Pogi climbed Beille faster than Riis climbed Hautacam. Faster than Pantani's record on Alpe d'Huez. You read that right, more powerful than unlimited EPO.

That's only if you trust the calculations. Which I don't and the proof I'm using (in other thread) is Remco. Other than that, there's no direct comparison between those performances.

 

[repoman]

Ahahaha. Pogi in L'Equipe when asked about the time:

"Six years ago, when I started, we focused mainly on starchy foods," Pogacar explained. "For breakfast, we mainly ate pasta, white rice and omelettes. Today, it's more varied, we have porridge, pancakes, omelettes, bread... These little things have made a difference and allowed us not to necessarily eat only pasta in the morning. But everything is weighed, everything is programmed for breakfast, for the stage, for after the stage."

And:

"The bikes are also so fast, the tyres really make a difference, the wheels, the aero frames. The bikes have evolved so much in the last five years."

I mean, #2 is just not very true is it? We know this. Especially in relation to climbs.

I believe there was a somewhat recent test of a circa 2015 Cervelo S5 and it was superior aerodynamically to many current crop aero bikes, it was also considerably lighter.

 

[Tim Cahill]

That's only if you trust the calculations. Which I don't and the proof I'm using (in other thread) is Remco. Other than that, there's no direct comparison between those performances.

 

[bNator]

Now I’m repeating myself from other thread a bit but never mind… What is “very accurate”? How many percents accurate? It’s an important question to answer when Jonas and Remco were only 5% apart according to these calculations.

If these calculations were correct, then Pog is 7% better than his previous best power-wise and Jonas is 5% better. But what Jonas also said “almost go as far as to say” when asked if this was his best performance ever? So what is it - almost best or 5% better than the second best?

I'm not saying these guys aren't doping, to be clear. It's just that I find it pretty hard to believe they would produce 7 and 5% outliers when compared to their second best efforts (according to calculations) especially considering that if they are doping, this probably wouldn't be the first time they've done it. So long story short, while this is fishy for sure, the evidence is in my opinion greatly exaggerated.

 

[Netserk]

Half serious... What I am trying to say though, is that if we use comparison with Pantani as means to evaluate the risk of riders being doped, we shouldn't operate with 3:30 gap but due to the circumstances and context of the race, the realistic gap is much smaller. These were my suggested values: 0:40 to Vingegaard and 1:48 to Pogacar. I'm not sure if they are correct, of course. I don't know when exactly Pantani started the attack and I don't know how fast they went up to that point - I just assumed he attacked at a similar point on the climb and that the group used similar pace to that of our Sunday's breakaway. Maybe some guys here know some more...

Vingegaard attacked ~10.8 km from the finish. He had no draft from then on until the finish. Pantani attacked ~3 km sooner, I think. Minimal difference. In the last ~9.5 km of the climb, Vingegaard was around 1'44" faster than Pantani (and also took time on him before that).

Your suggestion is baseless.

 

[Netserk]

If these calculations were correct, then Pog is 7% better than his previous best power-wise and Jonas is 5% better. But what Jonas also said “almost go as far as to say” when asked if this was his best performance ever? So what is it - almost best or 5% better than the second best?

Today he clarified that it was his best ever W/kg, but as he weights less after his crash, he is not sure if he pushed more Watts in absolute terms.

It is indeed insane how big an outlier this performance was. We are trying to tell you that. The time gaps down to 5th and blow are also insane, in line with the best getting more powerful overnight.

 

[bNator]

Today he clarified that it was his best ever W/kg, but as he weights less after his crash, he is not sure if he pushed more Watts in absolute terms.

It is indeed insane how big an outlier this performance was. We are trying to tell you that. The time gaps down to 5th and blow are also insane, in line with the best getting more powerful overnight.

Ok best but again, by how much? I mean it can't be 5 f*** percents If Jonas is doping, he was also doping during last years TT. He can't be so much more doped this year that it's 5% better than that one

 

[Netserk]

Ok best but again, by how much? I mean it can't be 5 f*** percents If Jonas is doping, he was also doping during last years TT. He can't be so much more doped this year that it's 5% better than that one

The more I check it, the more confident I get despite my initial disbelief. Yes, they improved by more than 5 % overnight. Run the numbers, check different sources. It checks out.

 

[Tim Cahill]

You have to appreciate Vingegaard being so open about his performances.

Remember the p ansies from Sky claiming Froome did like 5.8W/Kg or whatever after he destroyed the field?

In contrast, Vingegaard, a few weeks after leaving the ICU:

"My best performance ever."

"7W/Kg? correct."

A Clinic hero?

Ah the isometric chainring on LPDBF, I think Dawg still uses it.

 

[NFTtiddies]

They're doing a favor to all the other riders who are too scared to fully commit to the gear train.

 

[bNator]

The more I check it, the more confident I get despite my initial disbelief. Yes, they improved by more than 5 % overnight. Run the numbers, check different sources. It checks out.

Ok went to Pog's Strava segment for Beille and did a calculation for the final 5 km of that segment, just after Pog attacked Vinge. I get an average power of 6.81 W/kg for that segment. This is assuming no wind and no draft. For the entire climb, you get 6.57 - again no draft effect considered (which would lower the value) but also no slope&pace irregularities (which would make it higher)...

Of course I don't know many of the exact parameters, so here's the python code to play along if anyone wants to (add wind effect etc..):

import math

# simulation parameters
g = 9.8067
crr = 0.0023
CdA = 0.24
Rho = 1.11
drivetrain_efficiency = 0.98

# route parameters
distance = 5000
altitude_diff = 359
time_delta = 11*60 + 32

# rider parameters
rider_weight = 65
bike_weight = 7.8
other_stuff_weight = 0.5

gradient_percent = altitude_diff / distance * 100
speed_avg = distance / time_delta
system_weight = rider_weight + bike_weight + other_stuff_weight

F_g = g * math.sin(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight
F_rr = g * math.cos(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight * crr
F_wr = 0.5 * CdA * Rho * speed_avg * speed_avg

P = (F_g + F_rr + F_wr) * speed_avg / drivetrain_efficiency
p_per_kilo = P / rider_weight

print(p_per_kilo)

P.S. If there's any python coder out there, I know the code is terrible, I only use python for fooling around...

 

[proffate]

Re; Aero gains from bikes, from expert Alban Lorenzini. The gains from aerobikes on flat/fast sections of courses are pretty substantial, but this drops at lower speeds.

Antoine: As soon as it slows down, in the passes, the equipment plays less and less role, so the gains and the gaps between modern bikes and equipment compared to the 2000s are rapidly reduced?

Alban Lorenzini;
After 20 km/h or even 25 km/h, which is a speed often reached by pros even on climbs of more than 5%, the aerodynamic and rolling gains can add up a little. Compared to the 2000s and at 25 km/h, we could estimate at more than 5 watts in aero on bikes. Nevertheless, the 5 aero watts of bikes are open to discussion. Some mountain bikes like the Cervelo R5 from Visma have very few aerodynamic improvements, apart from the integration of cables on the cockpit (one-piece handlebar + stem). Pogacar does not have an ultra "fast" bike either. We can estimate a gain of 2 or 3 watts at 25 km/h. He rides most of the time with high wheels to compensate a little for this lack of speed.

Aero bikes get all the attention but it's the clothing that really matters, and that has noticeably improved imo. The entire package of wheels, clothing, helmets, handlebars, etc absolutely have to make some difference. And Pogacar went up Plateau de Beille at 24 km/h (!!).

Rolling resistance also scales with speed, and has notably improved recently due to better tires and a focus on marginal gains (for decades it was just weight).

I believe there was a somewhat recent test of a circa 2015 Cervelo S5 and it was superior aerodynamically to many current crop aero bikes, it was also considerably lighter.

Weight can't be different due to the UCI limit. Tires then were slower. The frame may have been just as fast, but frame is the least important part of the equation. And that bike was way less comfortable, I don't think they ever would have used it for a 5000kj day in the mountains.

I mean I'm a little sick to my stomach over these ungodly performances but the tech actually has moved forward after many decades of stagnation.

 

[Monoxidator]

Ok went to Pog's Strava segment for Beille and did a calculation for the final 5 km of that segment, just after Pog attacked Vinge. I get an average power of 6,81 W/kg for that segment. This is assuming no wind and no draft. Of course I don't know many of the exact parameters, so here's the python code to play along if anyone wants to (add wind effect etc..):

import math

# simulation parameters
g = 9.8067
crr = 0.0023
CdA = 0.24
Rho = 1.11
drivetrain_efficiency = 0.98

# route parameters
distance = 5000
altitude_diff = 359
time_delta = 11*60 + 32

# rider parameters
rider_weight = 65
bike_weight = 7.8
other_stuff_weight = 0.5

gradient_percent = altitude_diff / distance * 100
speed_avg = distance / time_delta
system_weight = rider_weight + bike_weight + other_stuff_weight

F_g = g * math.sin(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight
F_rr = g * math.cos(math.atan(gradient_percent / 100)) * system_weight * crr
F_wr = 0.5 * CdA * Rho * speed_avg * speed_avg

P = (F_g + F_rr + F_wr) * speed_avg / drivetrain_efficiency
p_per_kilo = P / rider_weight

print(p_per_kilo)

P.S. If there's any python coder out there, I know the code is terrible, I only use python for fooling around...

I am, the code is fine tbh. It's simple calculations.

 

[Monoxidator]

The guys losing 6 minutes actually doing normal to actually good power numbers for this climb is what really drives home how insane this is.

lol, but "They didn't get the benefit of Jorgenson's insane leadout"

 

[Floatstick]

Aero bikes get all the attention but it's the clothing that really matters, and that has noticeably improved imo. The entire package of wheels, clothing, helmets, handlebars, etc absolutely have to make some difference. And Pogacar went up Plateau de Beille at 24 km/h (!!).

I am a frequent reader here, first time poster. But I joined because I’ve been seeing a lot of comments lately about how aerodynamic improvements are contributing to these performances.

Aero no doubt gets better and better, but every single quantification of the actual difference it makes in a bike race I’ve ever seen has been a full blown guess. Having designed control surfaces for aircraft most of my life I can assure you that no one is actually modeling out any of this bike stuff with any degree of accuracy, nor is that even possible to do.