The Caleb Ewan vs. Fernando Gaviria Thread

[Ricco']

"“One is that we’re the only three riders to come on the scene in the last 20 years and win 10 or more races in our neo-pro season,” McEwen pointed out quickly. “The power to weight ratio is of course our big thing. None of us put out massive power numbers in terms of total watts but we’re right up there at watts per kilo. And that’s what it's all about."

Well, McEwen should go out of his perfect anglo-saxonic cycling scene and do a little more research.

In the last 5 years at least Guardini (with 11 wins) and Mareczko (with 12 wins, albeit some with .2 stages) also passed the 10 win mark in the first neo-pro season, and that is only from memory, I don't know if we can find other examples.

 

[yaco]

I posted over a week ago that Ewan would ride the Giro - Expect him to do half the race and retire - The Giro in 2016 is less climber focused than in recent years.

 

[yaco]

Actually checked the profile - Probably 6 stages in the first 15 which will feature pure sprinters.

 

[blackcat]

Re:

"“One is that we’re the only three riders to come on the scene in the last 20 years and win 10 or more races in our neo-pro season,” McEwen pointed out quickly. “The power to weight ratio is of course our big thing. None of us put out massive power numbers in terms of total watts but we’re right up there at watts per kilo. And that’s what it's all about."

Well, McEwen should go out of his perfect anglo-saxonic cycling scene and do a little more research.

In the last 5 years at least Guardini (with 11 wins) and Mareczko (with 12 wins, albeit some with .2 stages) also passed the 10 win mark in the first neo-pro season, and that is only from memory, I don't know if we can find other examples.

In Mcewen's defense, I think you only qualify if you win a 2.1 race or WorldTour of 2HC race or its equivalent in the first year.

He is right in one respect, but in the wash up, we will only know it about ten years.

How old was Petacchi when he had his breakout in 2002? 28?

But what is the difference between being a 28 yo who know becomes a field sprinter, and being a 21yo given the field sprinting reins? nothing. no difference in actuality.

I remember one of the last years Hayman was on Rabobank, and he started being given the role of field sprinter in some races, a few podiums in Paris Nice etc, he was damn fast, if he new how to "be" a sprinter, with all that entails.

Guardini's second season results look impressive.

But when was the year when Langkawi resorted to a regional race when the budget dropped back, I think it was about 2008 or 2009, GFC time, when the GFC hits, the Indonesian gov't never puts the money into the cycling tour like it had been in the decade of the 2000s.

I compare this to a rider like Rumsas versus the mediocre talents like Beloki and Armstrong of his era. If Raimondas Rumsas had all the support of a rider like Armstrong or a Belgian rider, we could be talking about the Latvian or Lithuanian as the best rider of his era, with a palmares far better than Vino and any other regional rider. A rider from NZ like Hayden Roulston or Greg Henderson, phenomenal riders they were, had to scale for further heights than other riders. Canadians too. They just dont have a lubricant of the pathways other riders from bigger nations do. South Africans, so you need to see Robbie Hunter's palmares in this light. Froome even.

 

[blackcat]

interesting take in Guardini in 2011 http://velorooms.com/index.php?topic=344.5;wap2

I am gonna youtube his Giro win and see the famed speed (I am not doubting for one instance). Procycling is one of the toughest games, which makes the consistency of Cav, Cipo, Armstrong, Petacchi, sooooooo impressive

 

[blackcat]

here cav v guardini when guardini blows his doors off, cav is not happy with manuel, but he did nothing but trail in that last km, he just blew his doors off mano-a-mano, albeit, a fair bit disadvantaged v Cav's free run.

something may have happened over the last 10km, but I doubt it, Cav had the protection of his team. Cav just musta been on his rags that day, or as Trump would say, getting his blood.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H9zSDWL3ds

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

here cav v guardini when guardini blows his doors off, cav is not happy with manuel, but he did nothing but trail in that last km, he just blew his doors off mano-a-mano, albeit, a fair bit disadvantaged v Cav's free run.

something may have happened over the last 10km, but I doubt it, Cav had the protection of his team. Cav just musta been on his rags that day, or as Trump would say, getting his blood.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H9zSDWL3ds

That was one of the first times that I saw Cav getting manhandled mano-a-mano.
I'm curious to see how Ewan will develope as a rider, he'll probably never beat the +1900 watts monsters in an easy straight forward sprint with a long finishig straight, but with his explosiveness and his extreme position he could become the man to beat in chaotic sprints with a complicated run in with many corners.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

here cav v guardini when guardini blows his doors off, cav is not happy with manuel, but he did nothing but trail in that last km, he just blew his doors off mano-a-mano, albeit, a fair bit disadvantaged v Cav's free run.

something may have happened over the last 10km, but I doubt it, Cav had the protection of his team. Cav just musta been on his rags that day, or as Trump would say, getting his blood.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H9zSDWL3ds

That was one of the first times that I saw Cav getting manhandled mano-a-mano.
I'm curious to see how Ewan will develope as a rider, he'll probably never beat the +1900 watts monsters in an easy straight forward sprint with a long finishig straight, but with his explosiveness and his extreme position he could become the man to beat in chaotic sprints with a complicated run in with many corners.

the first time I saw Cav lose mano-a-mano was Tirreno Adriatico to Tyler Farrar, about 2010.

I think Cav must have had a blood withdrawl, or an injury, cos when he went to jump, and the lead-out left him at the front with a clear run at the line, his acceleration and sprint was equivalent to Michael Rasmussen, now, he coulda been injured or had a problem we were unaware, there are a myriad of reasons why he could not sprint and accelerate when given every chance for an easy win like his 200 other wins, which 70% he has had the opportunity to sprint for the line from the front, the sprint not to lose. Well, this was another of those sprints not to lose at Tirreno. go figure. Ask Tyler Farrar, he may know.

the devil's advocate on my post, just having less 02 and blood out, should not take away his power and ATP and ability to sprint when given the armchair to the line... yeah, like I said, I dont know. He could have been significantly tired and in the red, but even when Cav is in the red, he has always managed to muster the effort and courage to win. There was a reason, maybe only Cav knows.

 

[blackcat]

Re: Re:

here cav v guardini when guardini blows his doors off, cav is not happy with manuel, but he did nothing but trail in that last km, he just blew his doors off mano-a-mano, albeit, a fair bit disadvantaged v Cav's free run.

something may have happened over the last 10km, but I doubt it, Cav had the protection of his team. Cav just musta been on his rags that day, or as Trump would say, getting his blood.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H9zSDWL3ds

That was one of the first times that I saw Cav getting manhandled mano-a-mano.
I'm curious to see how Ewan will develope as a rider, he'll probably never beat the +1900 watts monsters in an easy straight forward sprint with a long finishig straight, but with his explosiveness and his extreme position he could become the man to beat in chaotic sprints with a complicated run in with many corners.

he may have to find a team that is willing to put a sprint leadout train around him. That is why Cav could rack up 200 wins in his career, because of his overwhelming team support, by the best teams in the peloton.

 

[HelloDolly]

I am so impressed by Ewan. Not only his position on the bike and speed but how mature he is in races and how he positions himself in the finale. For me he is the star of the future . and he is with a team who will nurture him well

 

[orangerider]

The lack of aggression is a very valid and accurate point Robbie has made. May be the Achilles heel for Ewan when going against the big boys in the big races.

 

[42x16ss]

Re:

The lack of aggression is a very valid and accurate point Robbie has made. May be the Achilles heel for Ewan when going against the big boys in the big races.

Huh? That doesn't seem to be too much of an issue, he moves up through the bunch quite well, watch the bike cam from his Vuelta stage win as just one example. The major problem is his size going up against huge guys like Greipel and Kittel. If Ewan gets too close to either of those guys he's toast, like McEwen said, there's a real possibility Ewan could take a shoulder, elbow or even a hip to the head.

This is an area where Gaviria will certainly have an advantage.

 

[greenedge]

Re:

Orica has confirmed that Ewan will start this year's Giro d'Italia.

Ideally he'd ride 9-14 days there, then do another 7 at the Vuelta to (re)acclimatise him for the heat of Qatar. It would also be a good step for future years.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Orica has confirmed that Ewan will start this year's Giro d'Italia.

Ideally he'd ride 9-14 days there, then do another 7 at the Vuelta to (re)acclimatise him for the heat of Qatar. It would also be a good step for future years.

The World Champoinships could be a crap shoot if we get above average temperatures

 

[Lupi33x]

What a diabolical location choice

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

What a diabolical location choice

If there's wind it could be one of the great WCRRs.

 

[Lupi33x]

Desert echelons are so much fun.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

What a diabolical location choice

If there's wind it could be one of the great WCRRs.

Indeed. It could turn into Aus vs. Belgium vs. Germany with their rider's experience in crosswinds and echelons. Poor Gaviria might struggle though

 

[orangerider]

Re: Re:

The lack of aggression is a very valid and accurate point Robbie has made. May be the Achilles heel for Ewan when going against the big boys in the big races.

Huh? That doesn't seem to be too much of an issue, he moves up through the bunch quite well, watch the bike cam from his Vuelta stage win as just one example. The major problem is his size going up against huge guys like Greipel and Kittel. If Ewan gets too close to either of those guys he's toast, like McEwen said, there's a real possibility Ewan could take a shoulder, elbow or even a hip to the head.

This is an area where Gaviria will certainly have an advantage.

He's the underdog with less mass and wattage on pure flats so needs to use the tactics employed by Cav and Robbie in the past. Robbie quite well known for his head butts and angry demeanor in the finishes to prevent being mowed down.

 

[dirkprovin]

Re: Re:

What a diabolical location choice

If there's wind it could be one of the great WCRRs.

Indeed. It could turn into Aus vs. Belgium vs. Germany with their rider's experience in crosswinds and echelons. Poor Gaviria might struggle though

I'd put my cash on the Europeans should it come to echelons. Aussies aren't particularly well known for being alert on this score. Furthermore, if Ewan is nominated as "the man" for this race, such a move would see his chances out the window. As yet, he hasn't the strength & sustained power to hold onto a lead group in those conditions. In time, that may change but a highly doubtful proposition for the next year or so.

 

[armchairclimber]

Was looking at Ewan's onboard camera footage. Some impressive weaving and holding position at the Vuelta and Herald Sun. This is my fave though. Sprint Selfie, Caleb Ewan style.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWRRDH5WCnE

 

[barmaher]

It is one of the least windy months of the year in Qatar. There is only a 16% chance of the wind being higher than 4 on the Beaufort scale. Higher than 4 (20-28km/h) is what is really needed for echelons.

http://www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/doha

 

[rghysens]

Re:

It is one of the least windy months of the year in Qatar. There is only a 16% chance of the wind being higher than 4 on the Beaufort scale. Higher than 4 (20-28km/h) is what is really needed for echelons.

http://www.windfinder.com/windstatistics/doha

Plus, on a circuit the likeliness of echelons is generally lower, due to the lack of long stretches exposed to wind.

 

[barmaher]

I did read before that they were going to "build" a hilly course, but no idea if that is true, still applicable or how hilly such a course would be.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

What a diabolical location choice

If there's wind it could be one of the great WCRRs.

Indeed. It could turn into Aus vs. Belgium vs. Germany with their rider's experience in crosswinds and echelons. Poor Gaviria might struggle though

I'd put my cash on the Europeans should it come to echelons. Aussies aren't particularly well known for being alert on this score. Furthermore, if Ewan is nominated as "the man" for this race, such a move would see his chances out the window. As yet, he hasn't the strength & sustained power to hold onto a lead group in those conditions. In time, that may change but a highly doubtful proposition for the next year or so.

Michael Rogers' record speaks for itself in this regard. If there's wind, him and Hayman will be the first two picked.