Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[frisenfruitig]

I have read some theories and one of the more modest estimations was that 1kg makes up for roughly 30 seconds on a 30 minute climb. That means the difference between, say 61 and 63 kg, gives a 1 minute difference on a 30 minute climb. If you only count the MTF in the Vuelta and the time it would take to climb them, this would mean losing plenty of minutes over 3 weeks. Plenty more than he can ever dream of making up in the TT.

Now if you take into account the other -not MTF- climbs, you also realise you have to push bigger numbers and go deeper constantly, wasting more energy and tiring yourself more over the course of 3 weeks. This is actually what worries me most, especially with his inconsistency the past two seasons. You can have killer legs, if you don't have the energy anymore to push those watts to compensate for those extra kg, you shut down. So it's possible everything goes well for 2 weeks, and then suddenly the lights go out.

Obviously this theory is when you don't have to lose leg muscle but just fat and can still produce the same watts as before. Remco, at the moment looks relatively sharp (looking at instagram and twitter images from the past days), so i don't know if he could lose an entire kg of only fat, or at which point he would start losing muscle mass. But even 500grams actually make a difference each day. There is a reason climbers don't have legs like sprinters. So him being heavier in relation to his weight, than the least lanky GC guys of the past decades causes quite a bit of doubt for me. Especially with a team that frankly often gives the impression it doesn't seem to know what they are doing, making stuff up as they go and trying a completely different approach compared to last year, based on the assumption that this was the problem and not his recovery and preparation.

For me personally, it is the biggest concern. Whether this is the right balance between staying healthy (not getting sick), power output, climbing, and lasting 3 weeks. If it is, i applaud his trainers, but considering they are using his weight as a scapegoat for his Giro failure, considering he appears to be heavier (in relation to his height) than any successful GT rider of the past 15 years, considering the team is not experienced at all in these matters (unlike other teams), i can only hope they got it right.

I agree with your point about the team lacking the necessary knowledge but as far as his ideal weight it's just speculation honestly. It may well be the case that he performs better being slightly heavier rather than being as skinny as he was last year. Sure if he could lose 3 kg without losing any power that would certainly be a big improvement but that may not be possible for him.

The way he has been climbing this year is much better than last year and probably on par with his first year as a pro. Even last year in the giro after a terrible preparation after his injury he still did pretty well for the first 2 weeks which makes me think we should have higher expectations for this Vuelta. There is no way he isn't in significantly better shape than he was last year. But yeah, his team doesn't fill me with confidence either.

 

[Big Doopie]

I have read some theories and one of the more modest estimations was that 1kg makes up for roughly 30 seconds on a 30 minute climb. That means the difference between, say 61 and 63 kg, gives a 1 minute difference on a 30 minute climb...

FWIW Lemond said 1kg was worth quite a bit more than that over the length of a climb, so this is definitely a "modest" estimate.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree with your point about the team lacking the necessary knowledge but as far as his ideal weight it's just speculation honestly. It may well be the case that he performs better being slightly heavier rather than being as skinny as he was last year. Sure if he could lose 3 kg without losing any power that would certainly be a big improvement but that may not be possible for him.

The way he has been climbing this year is much better than last year and probably on par with his first year as a pro. Even last year in the giro after a terrible preparation after his injury he still did pretty well for the first 2 weeks which makes me think we should have higher expectations for this Vuelta. There is no way he isn't in significantly better shape than he was last year. But yeah, his team doesn't fill me with confidence either.

That's just it, even with the lousy preperation, recovery and relapse during preparation after his crash, with no racing in 9 months, he climbed better in the Giro for 2 weeks than he has climbed this year, except for that one day in Norway. In last year's Giro he was 60kg. While it is possible that 63 is closer to his optimal weight, i find that's a BIG chunk to suddenly -based on those arguments- suddenly ''adjust''. Because 3kg that's a lot for someone going for GC. How did they come by this number? Why not 62? I think it's an extreme jump and i'm not seeing the evidence or arguments to support it.

 

[houtdffan]

Yea, but I don't see the category of pure climbers of yore. I mean the best climbers in the world, when push comes to shove at the Tour, have also been much more than pure climbers, from Contador (pre-Clen), to Nibali, Froome and Roglic, Pogacar, even Vingegaard. In other words, they can also TT and some perform in the classics (Nibali, Pogacar), so not just mountain goats.

Contador post clen was basically a TT specialist. His 3 post suspension GTs were won mainly in the TT. He sure wasn't the best climber in the 2015 giro

 

[tobydawq]

Contador post clen was basically a TT specialist.

Yeah, a regular Bert Grabsch, he was...

 

[Big Doopie]

Contador post clen was basically a TT specialist. His 3 post suspension GTs were won mainly in the TT. He sure wasn't the best climber in the 2015 giro

wow, not how i remember it.

major TT drop off after his DQ as compared to pre-DQ. only that (mountain) TT in 2013 where he pushed froome. otherwise there was a pretty distinct drop-off on flatter TTs, particularly when riding in france (2+2=well, 4).

 

[Extinction]

Contador post clen was basically a TT specialist. His 3 post suspension GTs were won mainly in the TT. He sure wasn't the best climber in the 2015 giro

Well if you say Contador pre-Clen TT is better then I'd kindly direct you to penultimate stage of Tour 2009, when he crushed it against Cancellara!

 

[frisenfruitig]

That's just it, even with the lousy preperation, recovery and relapse during preparation after his crash, with no racing in 9 months, he climbed better in the Giro for 2 weeks than he has climbed this year, except for that one day in Norway. In last year's Giro he was 60kg. While it is possible that 63 is closer to his optimal weight, i find that's a BIG chunk to suddenly -based on those arguments- suddenly ''adjust''. Because 3kg that's a lot for someone going for GC. How did they come by this number? Why not 62? I think it's an extreme jump and i'm not seeing the evidence or arguments to support it.

In general he has been performing better than last year I would say, his overall level is much higher. The way he dropped everyone on that 4k climb @ 10% in San Sebastian is something he couldn't have done last year. I suspect we will also see this in this Vuelta but I could be wrong of course. By his own words he has never climbed better so we'll see. I understand your doubts though. However I don't agree that he climbed better in the giro last year than he has done this year. He managed to hang on for 2 weeks, sure, but it's not like he dropped everyone like a brick like he did in LBL or San Sebastian. I know these are one day races but you really can't do that without being a good climber.

 

[Andre]

Don't know if trolling or whatever but careful examination show that they look pretty similar except for Vingegaard's hunchback.

to me they don't look similar

 

[spalco]

FWIW Lemond said 1kg was worth quite a bit more than that over the length of a climb, so this is definitely a "modest" estimate.

I would say so. Complete layman-opinion, but: I weigh about 85kg most of the year, if I go up to 88 I feel it even in everyday life. The difference between 60 and 63 is much greater proportionally and for a competitive athlete surely even more so.

I hope Remco's coaches have got it right, but I'm sceptical.

 

[houtdffan]

Well if you say Contador pre-Clen TT is better then I'd kindly direct you to pebnultimate stage of Tour 2009, when he crushed it against Cancellara!

and I'd direct you to the giro 2015

Even Vuelta 2012, the margin of victory was in the TT

 

[Extinction]

and I'd direct you to the giro 2015

Even Vuelta 2012, the margin of victory was in the TT

Are you saying Contador was more climber or timetrialer? I'd say both, but after Clen things were not the same except 2014, when he found his mojo again

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

In general he has been performing better than last year I would say, his overall level is much higher. The way he dropped everyone on that 4k climb @ 10% in San Sebastian is something he couldn't have done last year. I suspect we will also see this in this Vuelta but I could be wrong of course. By his own words he has never climbed better so we'll see. I understand your doubts though. However I don't agree that he climbed better in the giro last year than he has done this year. He managed to hang on for 2 weeks, sure, but it's not like he dropped everyone like a brick like he did in LBL or San Sebastian. I know these are one day races but you really can't do that without being a good climber.

I meant longer climbs, not short ones like in Itzulia and San Sebastian.

 

[red_flanders]

Don't know if trolling or whatever but careful examination show that they look pretty similar except for Vingegaard's hunchback.

I'm sorry to say but this isn't a careful examination. Those photos are lit from a very different direction, taken at a different time of day with wildly different backgrounds, taken from different angles, and almost surely were shot with lenses having different focal lengths. As such, literally NOTHING WRT their respective weights can be determined from comparing them. Differing focal lengths, angles, and lighting render faces and bodies in radically different ways.

A photo of both, standing or riding next to each other in the same image could be informative. We may see such an image soon.

to me they don't look similar

Generally, from watching video of Vingo at the Tour and Remco at San Sebastian, it appears that Vingo is much thinner.

 

[houtdffan]

Are you saying Contador was more climber or timetrialer? I'd say both, but after Clen things were not the same except 2014, when he found his mojo again

after clen, the difference in his GT victories was mainly in the TTs

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I'm sorry to say but this isn't a careful examination. Those photos are lit from a very different direction, taken at a different time of day with wildly different backgrounds, taken from different angles, and almost surely were shot with lenses having different focal lengths. As such, literally NOTHING WRT their respective weights can be determined from comparing them. Differing focal lengths, angles, and lighting render faces and bodies in radically different ways.

A photo of both, standing or riding next to each other in the same image could be informative. We may see such an image soon.



Generally, from watching video of Vingo at the Tour and Remco at San Sebastian, it appears that Vingo is much thinner.

They have different helmets.

 

[ciranda]

I'm sorry to say but this isn't a careful examination. Those photos are lit from a very different direction, taken at a different time of day with wildly different backgrounds, taken from different angles, and almost surely were shot with lenses having different focal lengths. As such, literally NOTHING WRT their respective weights can be determined from comparing them. Differing focal lengths, angles, and lighting render faces and bodies in radically different ways.

A photo of both, standing or riding next to each other in the same image could be informative. We may see such an image soon.

Ok fine compare with these pictures instead.

I made no assessment about weight, the comparison was not about that. To repeat I see someone with muscular legs, thighs, solid upper body, not an anorexic guy, in addition a low aero position not that far from Evenepoel.

 

[Red Rick]

Why are we comparing TT positions to Vingegaard?

I don't doubt Remco has better CdA/kg.

I think Vingegaards TT performance was heavily helped by being fresh as a daisy at the end of a crazy hard Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Why are we comparing TT positions to Vingegaard?

I don't doubt Remco has better CdA/kg.

I think Vingegaards TT performance was heavily helped by being fresh as a daisy at the end of a crazy hard Tour.

Why wouldn't we? Its the Remco-thread, this is peak La Florecita nonsense

 

[Bonimenier]

Ok fine compare with these pictures instead.

I made no assessment about weight, the comparison was not about that. To repeat I see someone with muscular legs, thighs, solid upper body, not an anorexic guy, in addition a low aero position not that far from Evenepoel.

The only resemblance I see in those pictures is that they are both humans who sit on TT bike

 

[red_flanders]

Ok fine compare with these pictures instead.

I made no assessment about weight, the comparison was not about that. To repeat I see someone with muscular legs, thighs, solid upper body, not an anorexic guy, in addition a low aero position not that far from Evenepoel.

Not sure how this addresses anything I said. Why am I comparing Vingegaard to Vingegaard?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not sure how this addresses anything I said. Why am I comparing Vingegaard to Vingegaard?

The question was, ''are they alike''?

PS: that first image was of Remco was pre-crash.

 

[red_flanders]

The question was, ''are they alike''?

PS: that first image was of Remco was pre-crash.

Hence my question about the second set of images.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Hence my question about the second set of images.

I was joking.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ok fine compare with these pictures instead.

I made no assessment about weight, the comparison was not about that. To repeat I see someone with muscular legs, thighs, solid upper body, not an anorexic guy, in addition a low aero position not that far from Evenepoel.

You are wrong. Don't judge upper bodies when in TT position. Do you think Vinge has such a belly? This is true Vinge's upper body, compare it to Primoz, who's not big either. To sum up, Vinge is super thin, almost like a pipe.