The Hitch said:
Would also be strange if it was menchov. His performances have been ****. He's still blood doping and enough for it to register?
From what I have seen over the last few years, when bio-passport cases break in the press they usually refer to fluctuating values from a period between one and three years before word gets out, so we would probably not be looking at a rider's 2013 performance apart from the suggestion that crap results might relate to riding cleaner.
That significant time lag is, I think, due to the steps required to complete the notification-representation cycle. The ABP panel must review the cases and then compile and submit reports. The administrators must then deliberate and decide to follow up the matter administratively. A rider is duly notified by the UCI and has a window of time in which to prepare representations which explain the fluctuations noted in his blood values.
Beyond that, it boils down to the individual and his team and how they manage that situation. Some teams might allow their rider continue to race, whereas others may exercise caution and bench him in order somewhat to limit any eventual blast damage.
When deliberate benching occurs, as I believe it does, some teams lack creativity in their PR. Using injury as a front for absence is a mouldy old excuse, but many of the same excuses crop up, sometimes in succession. In this way, I counted no less than 13 different riders whose performance was supposedly blighted by tooth infections between 2005 and 2012. There were four such citations in 2012 alone. It's like the PR people of different teams were borrowing each others' lecture notes.
So my guess, after all that waffle, is that the rider concerned would have been targeted for values between 2010-2012 and that, if he has continued to ride throughout 2012 and 2013, he has ridden very modestly, "out of character". I would also particularly focus on individuals who are not currently performing well or are absent due to an injury or illness that was not sustained suddenly and in full view of a spectating public, and possibly one that normally entails a long recovery period.
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