Tirreno - Adriatico 2021, March 10 - March 16

[Volderke]

WvA is a master in positioning.
MvdP is too good to be a team mate: he went to the front solo, saw Merlier wasn't following, and he went back to pick him up while he could have stayed there and sprint!
Ewan reminds me of those drag race cars that have to much power to weight to not get the rubber slipping.

 

[Bonimenier]

I think VdP knew he wasn't really in a position to fight bar to bar with Ewen WvA etc. He got a little boxed in and probably didn't see a safe way out.

I'm not 100% certain why VdP is in this race, actually. It's not like he needs an extra 2-3% for the next leg of classics...

VdP wasn't going to contest the sprint anyway. He was trying to lead out Merlier, but as we've seen before, leading out someone is one of the few things he's not good at on a bike.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Is there anything WVA can't do?

 

[Alexandre B.]

I think Jalabert 1995 can sh*t his pants.

Jumbo-Visma is the new ONCE.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think VdP knew he wasn't really in a position to fight bar to bar with Ewen WvA etc. He got a little boxed in and probably didn't see a safe way out.

I'm not 100% certain why VdP is in this race, actually. It's not like he needs an extra 2-3% for the next leg of classics...

edit: Maybe Merlier was designated sprinter for Alpecin today? He's been really strong too.

Merlier is here for the sprints, yes. As for Mathieu, he's not a worse sprinter than Wout is, but the way they need you ride their sprint in order to win, is different, and some finishes favor one over the other. Mathieu has better acceleration, Wout more power (maybe higher top speed in longer sprints).

 

[Wvv]

What a powerhouse this guy. Even more because we have to imagine him following the better climbers the coming days. Very curious about the outcome.

 

[tobydawq]

I think VdP knew he wasn't really in a position to fight bar to bar with Ewen WvA etc. He got a little boxed in and probably didn't see a safe way out.

I'm not 100% certain why VdP is in this race, actually. It's not like he needs an extra 2-3% for the next leg of classics...

edit: Maybe Merlier was designated sprinter for Alpecin today? He's been really strong too.

Yes, Merlier is the sprinter.

 

[will-10]

Wout to win GC on bonus seconds

 

[Red Rick]

Is Wout now the favorite to win GC here (only one mountain stage plus a TT finishing up)?

Prato di Tivo should normally be too hard.

 

[will-10]

thankfully we don't have a "dutch antilles" champion or something in a similar jersey

ah, an all-timer

 

[will-10]

Prato di Tivo should normally be too hard.

I don't see how we can put a limit on his capabilities yet with him not having ridden GC for himself before. It's wild but I really don't rule out him getting a long way up that thing with the best

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see how we can put a limit on his capabilities yet with him not having ridden GC for himself before. It's wild but I really don't rule out him getting a long way up that thing with the best

I think it's unlikely and frankly it would be insane if he could. There's a big difference between doing the first 30% of a big climb before chilling off the rest of the climb and between being up there with the best

 

[BlueRoads]

I think it's unlikely and frankly it would be insane if he could. There's a big difference between doing the first 30% of a big climb before chilling off the rest of the climb and between being up there with the best

Well, we will see how he does. But in the Tour he didn't do the first 30%. He did like 94%.

 

[Blanco]

Prato di Tivo should normally be too hard.

Wout Van Aert and normally doesn't go along in recent times...

 

[Red Rick]

Wout Van Aert and normally doesn't go along in recent times...

Winning Roland Garros will prove too hard for Wout van Aert.

 

[Blanco]

Winning Roland Garros will prove too hard for Wout van Aert.

At least while Rafa is still playing

 

[Devil's Elbow]

If the MTF was something like Sassotetto or Selvarotonda, he would definitely be the favourite right now, but Prati di Tivo usually has about a minute separating the winner from tenth place, and tenth would be a really good showing. He'll have to take time on the murito stage to stand a chance, in any case.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Is Wout now the favorite to win GC here (only one mountain stage plus a TT finishing up)?

There is also a behemoth of a stage waiting in Castelfidardo. They have a good team, but not a strong enough team to control this one.

But yeah, his chances are there. I still have the feeling, that riders like Quintana and Landa will attack very early on Prati di Tivo, so things will be difficult there.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

I think Jalabert 1995 can sh*t his pants.

Jumbo-Visma is the new ONCE.

For replicating that he will have to work too much for Roglic and will lose too many classics against Mathieu.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Merlier is here for the sprints, yes. As for Mathieu, he's not a worse sprinter than Wout is, but the way they need you ride their sprint in order to win, is different, and some finishes favor one over the other. Mathieu has better acceleration, Wout more power (maybe higher top speed in longer sprints).

exactly. Which is why Van Aert is more suited to mass sprints.

1. he is better at positioning
2. he can hold top speed longer
3. vdp is dislikes the hectic of a mass sprint.

1 and 2 are already enough.

Small group sprint or 1vs1 however, it almost depends on daily form or timing of sprint who wins. In sprints they both contested (finished in top 20) it's currentl 6-2 to VDP but largely with races before 2019... when Van Aert decided he could sprint. Now it's about 50/50 when they go against eachother. But when it's in a big mass sprint, Van Aert will win almost every time vs VDP because he is simply much much better at mass sprints.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

"Oh Wout van Aert
When I in awesome wonder
consider all the races thou hast made...
How Wout van Aert, how Wout van Aert!"

 

[Red Rick]

At least while Rafa is still playing

But remember, Evenepoel would've won that

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

exactly. Which is why Van Aert is more suited to mass sprints.

1. he is better at positioning
2. he can hold top speed longer
3. vdp is dislikes the hectic of a mass sprint.

1 and 2 are already enough.

Small group sprint or 1vs1 however, it almost depends on daily form or timing of sprint who wins. In sprints they both contested (finished in top 20) it's currentl 6-2 to VDP but largely with races before 2019... when Van Aert decided he could sprint. Now it's about 50/50 when they go against eachother. But when it's in a big mass sprint, Van Aert will win almost every time vs VDP because he is simply much much better at mass sprints.

I think positioning is the biggest issue for Mathieu (in that regard, #1 and #3 are likely very related, which is actually funny considering his technical skillset and risks he takes in CX and MTB). Regarding his acceleration/top speed, that would simply mean he would/could have to wait longer to jump out of the wheel of whoever is leading him out (be it a teammate or rival). He could basically wait longer to place his jump, surf the speed of his competitors and use his acceleration in the final 100m.

When the final is very technical, and the speed in the peloton is lower, that should also suit Mathieu more.

 

[search]

If the MTF was something like Sassotetto or Selvarotonda, he would definitely be the favourite right now, but Prati di Tivo usually has about a minute separating the winner from tenth place, and tenth would be a really good showing. He'll have to take time on the murito stage to stand a chance, in any case.

he can also gain back time in the ITT. Sure, Pogacar finished only 24s behind Ganna in UAE - but Engels said that the aim is to win that one, so they seem to be confident that van Aert is better than Ganna now

 

[Red Rick]

he can also gain back time in the ITT. Sure, Pogacar finished only 24s behind Ganna in UAE - but Engels said that the aim is to win that one, so they seem to be confident that van Aert is better than Ganna now

When Addy Engels predicts ITTs I shut my ears.