Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Cookster15]

It is difficult to believe that Vingegaard will underperform as massively as Roglic in 2020

Massively? Roglic was 5th fastest in 2020. He didn't really underperform. He just had a below par day.

 

[Trofonios]

My gut feeling is telling me Pogacar. But I have no confidence in that prediction whatsoever.

My guess is the route suits Pogacar a bit better. Some short but steep climbs, it's rather short and probably the kind of TT where you can never really find your rhythm. I would guess Vingegaard would have preferred a flat 50km TT, but honestly, what do I know. Maybe Pogacar is also a bit better than last year (at least his result so far is) and I hear UAE improved their TT material? Those things kinda point in his direction, but it's so evenly matched, surely I'm grasping at straws. And then there is also the fact that if Pogacar doesn't win by at least 10 seconds (which I think is very well possible) Vingegaard will still look like the true winner.

From article on front page:

The Dane reconnoitered the stage 16 time trial earlier in the season and he maintained that it suited his characteristics. "I think it is a good route for me. I like the routes where it's not just flat road and straight for 50 kilometres," Vingegaard said. "I like a change of pace and there will be some of that tomorrow."

 

[Jan the Man]

Given how evenly matched Pog and Vinge seem this year I can see Vingegaard taking this by a few seconds (but not much more than 10) purely by virtue of having Pogacars time split to measure himself by and aim for towards the end of the TT.

I don’t think that will matter only 2mins between them on the road and everybody going full gas. Either way I can’t call this at all- can’t see a gap of more than 10s-15s either way they are so evenly matched.

 

[Cookster15]

From article on front page:

The Dane reconnoitered the stage 16 time trial earlier in the season and he maintained that it suited his characteristics. "I think it is a good route for me. I like the routes where it's not just flat road and straight for 50 kilometres," Vingegaard said. "I like a change of pace and there will be some of that tomorrow."

He can say this but it does not suit him as well as Pogacar because he isn't as explosive as Pogacar. Having said this I am expecting it to be very close.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Big Slov to win the stage and take yellow.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Massively? Roglic was 5th fastest in 2020. He didn't really underperform. He just had a below par day.

Really? I think his ride was dog, everyone woulda expected him to finish at least 2nd - and most people expected him to win on the day as well. It would be the same if Vingegaard or Pogacar would finish 5th tomorrow, thats not below par, thats a complete off-day

 

[Aimar16]

Massively? Roglic was 5th fastest in 2020. He didn't really underperform. He just had a below par day.

The finishing position doesn't say much as not many guys had a reason to put in a big effort on that stage. The time by which he was beaten is more telling as the almost 36-year-old Porte also gave him more than half a minute.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Did a little more analysis on vaguely-similar TTs. Think my earlier estimate of 40 kph might be slightly too high.

Race	Distance	Elevation gain	Elevation gain/km	Elevation loss	Average speed of winner
Giro d'Italia 2019, stage 9	34,8	723	20,77586207	77	40,3
TT Worlds 2017	31	661	21,32258065	350	41,6
Paris-Nice 2017, stage 4	14,5	333	22,96551724	181	40,2
Itzulia 2014, stage 6	25,9	664	25,63706564	666	40,3
Tour de France 2020, stage 20	36,2	962	26,57458564	214	38,8
Tour de Suisse 2021, stage 7	23,2	654	28,18965517	631	38,6
Tour de France 2023, stage 16	22,4	636	28,39285714	242	??
Itzulia 2015, stage 6	18,3	522	28,52459016	680	38,2
Tour de Pologne 2022, stage 6	11,8	337	28,55932203	43	40,1
Tour de France 2013, stage 17	32	926	28,9375	853	37,2
Tour de Suisse 2013, stage 9	26,8	976	36,41791045	106	31
Itzulia 2016, stage 6	16,5	628	38,06060606	615	33,9
Tour de France 2016, stage 18	17	676	39,76470588	130	33,2

 

[SafeBet]

Is Van Aert expected to go full gas tomorrow?

 

[Trofonios]

If Pog takes yellow tomorrow I think we could see a spectacular stage 17.

TJV have a perfect line up to make the stage brutally hard. The first to climbs are long but not that steep, Hooydonck and Laporte can set a hard pace on these (Laporte deserves kudos for his climbing so far). Then I could see van Baarle/Benoot setting a grueling pace on the first less steep part on la Loze. Where van Aert will make an impact I'm not sure, maybe they let Kelderman ride before van Aert on the second part before van Aert ups the pace like he did on Hautacam last year. Then it should be Kuss time. What will happpen next God knows.

 

[Valv.Piti]

How long do you think it will take, @Devil's Elbow? 35 min or so?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

How long do you think it will take, @Devil's Elbow? 35 min or so?

There or thereabouts. Would be 38.4 km/h which seems reasonable, although if I had to take the over/under on 35 minutes, I would probably take the under.

 

[Red Rick]

Did a little more analysis on vaguely-similar TTs. Think my earlier estimate of 40 kph might be slightly too high.

Race	Distance	Elevation gain	Elevation gain/km	Elevation loss	Average speed of winner
Giro d'Italia 2019, stage 9	34,8	723	20,77586207	77	40,3
TT Worlds 2017	31	661	21,32258065	350	41,6
Paris-Nice 2017, stage 4	14,5	333	22,96551724	181	40,2
Itzulia 2014, stage 6	25,9	664	25,63706564	666	40,3
Tour de France 2020, stage 20	36,2	962	26,57458564	214	38,8
Tour de Suisse 2021, stage 7	23,2	654	28,18965517	631	38,6
Tour de France 2023, stage 16	22,4	636	28,39285714	242	??
Itzulia 2015, stage 6	18,3	522	28,52459016	680	38,2
Tour de Pologne 2022, stage 6	11,8	337	28,55932203	43	40,1
Tour de France 2013, stage 17	32	926	28,9375	853	37,2
Tour de Suisse 2013, stage 9	26,8	976	36,41791045	106	31
Itzulia 2016, stage 6	16,5	628	38,06060606	615	33,9
Tour de France 2016, stage 18	17	676	39,76470588	130	33,2

Some great legwork DE.

One thing I'm missing is the net elevation gain/km, which you can easily derive from these, but iMO is still more useful than some of the metrics here.

But given we speak about average speed, I think steep uphills depress average speed the most. Technicality get much more difficult to define.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Is Van Aert expected to go full gas tomorrow?

Thats a twisty one. TJV should give Wout his winner motivation. But important stages ahead.
Besides IMO not at route suiting WvA.

 

[Trofonios]

There or thereabouts. Would be 38.4 km/h which seems reasonable, although if I had to take the over/under on 35 minutes, I would probably take the under.

If they average 50 kph to the bottom of the second climb and 27 kph last 6k the time will be 33 minutes.

 

[Volderke]

Is Van Aert expected to go full gas tomorrow?

ofcourse. Is that even a question?

 

[Peyroteo94]

WVA will try to win as normal however he is not going to be close. Like some user said here, Vingegaard and Pogacar will fight for the win and everyone else should be at least one minute behind.

 

[HelloDolly]

s it possible that Van Aert could win this stage

 

[Peyroteo94]

If they average 50 kph to the bottom of the second climb and 27 kph last 6k the time will be 33 minutes.

27 kph? Seems too much.

 

[tobydawq]

Is Van Aert expected to go full gas tomorrow?

He did say that there were still 6 chances left for a stage win

 

[Bavarianrider]

Did a little more analysis on vaguely-similar TTs. Think my earlier estimate of 40 kph might be slightly too high.

Race	Distance	Elevation gain	Elevation gain/km	Elevation loss	Average speed of winner
Giro d'Italia 2019, stage 9	34,8	723	20,77586207	77	40,3
TT Worlds 2017	31	661	21,32258065	350	41,6
Paris-Nice 2017, stage 4	14,5	333	22,96551724	181	40,2
Itzulia 2014, stage 6	25,9	664	25,63706564	666	40,3
Tour de France 2020, stage 20	36,2	962	26,57458564	214	38,8
Tour de Suisse 2021, stage 7	23,2	654	28,18965517	631	38,6
Tour de France 2023, stage 16	22,4	636	28,39285714	242	??
Itzulia 2015, stage 6	18,3	522	28,52459016	680	38,2
Tour de Pologne 2022, stage 6	11,8	337	28,55932203	43	40,1
Tour de France 2013, stage 17	32	926	28,9375	853	37,2
Tour de Suisse 2013, stage 9	26,8	976	36,41791045	106	31
Itzulia 2016, stage 6	16,5	628	38,06060606	615	33,9
Tour de France 2016, stage 18	17	676	39,76470588	130	33,2

If Pogacar and Vinegard repeat the insane watts of the climbs it would translate in roughly a 38km/h average. (asuming zero wind and ignoring breaking zones). So they`ll likely be a tard slower than that. 37,5 km/h roughly should be the winning average.

 

[HelloDolly]

Rarely am I this excited about an ITT, but this one could prove decisive in terms of Pog v. Vingo. So I'll be glued to my TV screen, and I have no idea who will win.

I hope not ...I dont want it to be over till Saturday

As Oscar Wilde said " The suspense is killing me I hope it lasts"

 

[tobydawq]

If they average 50 kph to the bottom of the second climb and 27 kph last 6k the time will be 33 minutes.

50 kph is too much with that climb in it. I think.

 

[Trofonios]

27 kph? Seems too much.

Maybe, if 25 kph, time will be 34 minutes.

 

[pastronef]

Is Van Aert expected to go full gas tomorrow?

is KUSS expected to go full gas?