Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Boehmand]

How close would the race have been if Pogi was 100 percent today?

It's impossible to say, because it's not just about basic physical shape, it's also about how he had ridden the first two weeks (fatigue), and about how much risk he wanted to take on the route today.

 

[RobertCrawley]

I dont know , because Vingegaard said after the stage that he was himself surprised of how good he was , stating that he didnt even know that he was capable of such numbers . So he was clearly above his own 100% . I dont think think Pogacar was far from his 100% today if I look at the numbers from La Planche in 2020 . Best case scenario he would have still lost around a minute to Jonas today .

Pogi didn't beat either A Yates or Ciccione up the hill today. That may be where he lost a chunk of time.

 

[Boehmand]

This is not true- Pogi had a great ride. Pog no doubt attempting to explain his disappointment. Looking at the time gaps to everyone else I think he did very well. Vingegaard was a dominant as Indurain at 1992 Luxembourg.

It's a source of amazement to me, that fans refuse to believe what Pogacar himself said after the ride

 

[madthebad]

Pogi didn't beat either A Yates or Ciccione up the hill today. That may be where he lost a chunk of time.

he actually didnt , he lost the most time in the last 3.5 km of the stage , more than 30 seconds . he was 1 second slower than Yates on the climb given that he had a bike change while Ciccone is not a good example because he only focused on the climb for the KOM points .

 

[RobertCrawley]

he actually didnt , he lost the most time in the last 3.5 km of the stage , more than 30 seconds . he was 1 second slower than Yates on the climb given that he had a bike change while Ciccone is not a good example because he only focused on the climb for the KOM points .

It sounds like Pogi was super-tired those last few Ks. On his standard form, you'd think he would smoke Yates up that climb.

 

[Boehmand]

on a stage like today you still have Van Aert as a solid landmark . He has always been consistent in TT's even on the hilly ones . The gap between Van Aert and Pogacar was similar to the one in 2020 in what was supposedly an inhuman performance by Pogi . I dont even know how to describe what i saw today from Jonas and I've been watching Grand Tours since late 90's . he pulled 16 seconds on Pogacar on the flat part before the 2nd intermediate point where you would expect Tadej to gain some time due to his more physical build .

Also I dont think Mas or Carapaz would have made any difference , they are both just decent in TT's ,they would have lost 3 minutes + to Vingegaard today as well .

It's still apples and oranges to use Van Aert as a yardstick.
You are comparing the guy who won 3 stages last year, to the guy who has won none this year.
There is no evidence he is in the same shape.

At the same time it has been evident all year, that Vingegaard has been better this year than he was last year.

 

[Boehmand]

Pogi didn't beat either A Yates or Ciccione up the hill today. That may be where he lost a chunk of time.

Yates is a fair comparison, Ciccone is not, as he saved everything for the climb and completely let up again after it.

 

[Boehmand]

he actually didnt , he lost the most time in the last 3.5 km of the stage , more than 30 seconds . he was 1 second slower than Yates on the climb given that he had a bike change while Ciccone is not a good example because he only focused on the climb for the KOM points .

But when have you ever thought Pogacar on a good ride was on par with Yates?

 

[madthebad]

It sounds like Pogi was super-tired those last few Ks. On his standard form, you'd think he would smoke Yates up that climb.

its still the same Pogi that Vingegaard was afraid to attack 2 days ago and had the momentum in the second week showing that his fitness levels were getting better day by day . Like I said , If Pogi cracked today I could understand the gap but that wasnt the case . He still put 1:30 on Yates who is currently the 3rd place rider in the GC and 3 minutes on Rodriguez . That was not Pogacar cracking .

 

[Didinho]

Victor Crampenaerts had problems with his gears. Couldn’t shift. But wanted to be an his (only) TT bike for the descent and longer flat part but the first hill was harder than he thought and had almost came to a standstill. The reason for his big gear low cadance uphill.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

its still the same Pogi that Vingegaard was afraid to attack 2 days ago and had the momentum in the second week showing that his fitness levels were getting better day by day . Like I said , If Pogi cracked today I could understand the gap but that wasnt the case . He still put 1:30 on Yates who is currently the 3rd place rider in the GC and 3 minutes on Rodriguez . That was not Pogacar cracking .

I agree with your point, but he only took two minutes on Rodriguez.

 

[kingjr]

Rumours of a MTT on Alpe d'Huez next year.

Would be nice, 20 years after the last one.

 

[Screecher]

But when have you ever thought Pogacar on a good ride was on par with Yates?

Yates was only faster between T2 and T3 which is where Pog's bike change happened.

 

[madthebad]

I agree with your point, but he only took two minutes on Rodriguez.

thanks , my bad . i'm still messed up with the gaps after this stage, It was Hindley that lost 3 minutes to Pogi Even so , give it another couple of k's and Tadej would have been caught by Jonas, thats mindblowing .

 

[ManicJack]

Rumours of a MTT on Alpe d'Huez next year.

That has Remco written all over it

 

[Boehmand]

Yates was only faster between T2 and T3 which is where Pog's bike change happened.

So you are saying the bike change had zero positive effect - on the climb?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Kudos to Simon Yates on gaining back that one second before losing 32 seconds to Pogačar in 3.5 kms.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Legend states that Simon Yates was indeed the moral victor of the stage

 

[Trofonios]

Just heard: the rumours of a MTT on Alpe d'Huez is false.

They are now saying flat tt's for the next five years.

 

[Screecher]

So you are saying the bike change had zero positive effect - on the climb?

The bike change happened on the climb so it's hard to say whether he would've gone faster without it. The change itself took roughly 12 seconds.

 

[kingjr]

Just to round off the day, how about relaunching the debate of whether Vingegaard gifted van Aert the stage win in last year's TT.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Just to round off the day, how about relaunching the debate of whether Vingegaard gifted van Aert the stage win in last year's TT.

I think we should restart the debate why he didn't pull for van Aert even so he is so much stronger than the rest.

 

[theyoungest]

its still the same Pogi that Vingegaard was afraid to attack 2 days ago and had the momentum in the second week showing that his fitness levels were getting better day by day . Like I said , If Pogi cracked today I could understand the gap but that wasnt the case . He still put 1:30 on Yates who is currently the 3rd place rider in the GC and 3 minutes on Rodriguez . That was not Pogacar cracking .

On the final climb Pogacar had "just" the 4th time. So if he didn't crack, at least he wasn't doing amazing either. But this is what Jumbo have been working towards, make Pogacar tired and make the race perfect for third week king Vingegaard. You could already see on Sunday that Vingegaard was becoming stronger compared to Pogacar and now the momentum has definitely shifted towards him. I wouldn't be surprised if he dealt the final blow tomorrow.

That being said, the gap would probably have been half as big if he didn't change bikes. Seriously, that was such a bad decision. In the final few kilometers Vingegaard took another 30 seconds, simply because he could stay in TT position.

 

[kingjr]

I think we should restart the debate why he didn't pull for van Aert even so he is so much stronger than the rest

https://imgur.com/c7NJRa2

View: https://imgur.com/c7NJRa2

 

[ManicJack]

That being said, the gap would probably have been half as big if he didn't change bikes. Seriously, that was such a bad decision. In the final few kilometers Vingegaard took another 30 seconds, simply because he could stay in TT position.

Maybe not half, but.....yes, bad decision