Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 14: Pau - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet 151.9km

[tobydawq]

I'll do your dirty work then.



Why not?

Higher average speed on the flat or downhill doesn't impact the wattage output and fatigue accumulation in any significant way, I don't think. Especially if you factor in better aerodynamics.

On the climbs, okay, sure, but I assume that in both stages, the riders will have ridden the earlier climbs at a wattage level relative to their threshold in quite a similar way.

The best indication for these things is probably the size of the field at the bottom of the final climbs. Now, I haven't been counting the number of riders on both of these two stages but the fact that Nils Politt could lead the bunch over the Tourmalet probably tells you that this wasn't the hardest stage, even if the speed was high.

There's also a problem with the absolute statement of the two factors 'cancelling each other out'. It's obvious that higher speed does increase fatigue but to say that it does so much so as to cancel the other three climbs they rode on the 2001 stage is like saying 10 minus 2 equals zero.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Yeah, that's what I said. The action started much, much earlier in 2001.

Still, around 33 kph is very slow, even though there was around 1,500 vertical meters more to climb.

 

[memyselfandI]

What?!?! Remco lost time to Vingo, he simply didn't have it to pull. Jeez.

Well he was quickly in Vingegaards backwheel when Pogi attacked and Vingo went chasing Pogi. Then Vingo asked Remco to relay "anyone with big balls today, Charlie?" And Remco didn't say nothing so Vingo took a gogogo alone. True story just heard it on the X.

 

[KOM]

And even rarer Adam Hansen W

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812166274991931402

View: https://twitter.com/HansenAdam/status/1812166274991931402?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

 

[firefly3323]

It's the aerodynamics and the food.

Marginal gains.....

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

But at a considerably slower average speed, so those two factors should even each other out.

Pantani's 1995 + 1997 l'Alpe d'Huez record climbs for the steepest 12,7k section (cannot find right now, but discovered and measured myself, being on location all 3 editions, the official 36:40 1995 record is for the 13,7k full climb to finish line) still faster than Lance's 2004 ditto climb for a 16k ITT and not 160k/200k high mountain stage.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Hmm, still it’s 2 minutes faster than a guy on rocket fuel—you’re dismissing that too easily.

Maybe. The circumstances play a bigger part, as someone pointed out. If it was a time trial in the Tour up the Pla d'Adet, the times would likely fall. The time up the mountain is also largely determined by the speed of the lead out train. Etc.

 

[TrekCyclist]

For me the result is:
Pogi took some time (but not huge) on Vingo.
Vingo took some time (nut not huge) on Evenepoel
Evenepoel took a few seconds on around 10 others.

Some gaps, but nothing to be compared with Grand Bornand 21, Granon or Hautacam 22, Loze 23.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Pogi will attack soon, that's why Yates was sent up the climb.

Chapeau.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Higher average speed on the flat or downhill doesn't impact the wattage output and fatigue accumulation in any significant way, I don't think. Especially if you factor in better aerodynamics.

On the climbs, okay, sure, but I assume that in both stages, the riders will have ridden the earlier climbs at a wattage level relative to their threshold in quite a similar way.

The best indication for these things is probably the size of the field at the bottom of the final climbs. Now, I haven't been counting the number of riders on both of these two stages but the fact that Nils Politt could lead the bunch over the Tourmalet probably tells you that this wasn't the hardest stage, even if the speed was high.

There's also a problem with the absolute statement of the two factors 'cancelling each other out'. It's obvious that higher speed does increase fatigue but to say that it does so much so as to cancel the other three climbs they rode on the 2001 stage is like saying 10 minus 2 equals zero.

I hadn't seen your follow up before I posted. I very much appreciate you took the time to write this.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Vingo took some time (nut not huge) on Evenepoel

Everyone's a comedian.

 

[will-10]

Hmm, still it’s 2 minutes faster than a guy on rocket fuel—you’re dismissing that too easily.

you're in the wrong part of the forum

 

[red_flanders]

Higher average speed on the flat or downhill doesn't impact the wattage output and fatigue accumulation in any significant way, I don't think. Especially if you factor in better aerodynamics.

On the climbs, okay, sure, but I assume that in both stages, the riders will have ridden the earlier climbs at a wattage level relative to their threshold in quite a similar way.

The best indication for these things is probably the size of the field at the bottom of the final climbs. Now, I haven't been counting the number of riders on both of these two stages but the fact that Nils Politt could lead the bunch over the Tourmalet probably tells you that this wasn't the hardest stage, even if the speed was high.

There's also a problem with the absolute statement of the two factors 'cancelling each other out'. It's obvious that higher speed does increase fatigue but to say that it does so much so as to cancel the other three climbs they rode on the 2001 stage is like saying 10 minus 2 equals zero.

You make good points.

Yet…the fact that Nils Pollit was leading the group over the climb…feels like rinse and repeat. Seen this movie before.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Higher average speed on the flat or downhill doesn't impact the wattage output and fatigue accumulation in any significant way, I don't think. Especially if you factor in better aerodynamics.

On the climbs, okay, sure, but I assume that in both stages, the riders will have ridden the earlier climbs at a wattage level relative to their threshold in quite a similar way.

The best indication for these things is probably the size of the field at the bottom of the final climbs. Now, I haven't been counting the number of riders on both of these two stages but the fact that Nils Politt could lead the bunch over the Tourmalet probably tells you that this wasn't the hardest stage, even if the speed was high.

There's also a problem with the absolute statement of the two factors 'cancelling each other out'. It's obvious that higher speed does increase fatigue but to say that it does so much so as to cancel the other three climbs they rode on the 2001 stage is like saying 10 minus 2 equals zero.

Oh, so, suddenly it's complex, before it was "obvious".

There is nothing strange per se about Pogacar being faster than Armstrong on climbs - already three years ago he was equally as fast. So it makes sense. And Vingegaard says that his numbers today were good, so all in all - there is no reason to search for all kind of factors that can downgrade Pogacars effort compared to Armstrong.

 

[kingjr]

You make good points.

Yet…the fact that Nils Poliit was leading the group over the climb…feels like rinse and repeat. Seen this movie before.

A group of 50+ riders. He didn't exactly whittle it down.

 

[Sciatic]

For me the result is:
Pogi took some time (but not huge) on Vingo.
Vingo took some time (nut not huge) on Evenepoel
Evenepoel took a few seconds on around 10 others.

Some gaps, but nothing to be compared with Grand Bornand 21, Granon or Hautacam 22, Loze 23.

Perhaps not, but it was f&cking exciting!

 

[dobrien]

Well he was quickly in Vingegaards backwheel when Pogi attacked and Vingo went chasing Pogi. Then Vingo asked Remco to relay "anyone with big balls today, Charlie?" And Remco didn't say nothing so Vingo took a gogogo alone. True story just heard it on the X.

Being (too) quickly on Vingo's wheel in this case only told us that Remco miscalculated what he really had today. He looked really calm on the climb and I thought he was going to have a lot more; jumped to Vingo's wheel and 'poof'.

 

[tobydawq]

Oh, so, suddenly it's complex, before it was "obvious".

There is nothing strange per se about Pogacar being faster than Armstrong on climbs - already three years ago he was equally as fast. So it makes sense. And Vingegaard says that his numbers today were good, so all in all - there is no reason to search for all kind of factors that can downgrade Pogacars effort compared to Armstrong.

Well, it is still quite obvious...

 

[Sciatic]

Maybe. The circumstances play a bigger part, as someone pointed out. If it was a time trial in the Tour up the Pla d'Adet, the times would likely fall. The time up the mountain is also largely determined by the speed of the lead out train. Etc.

I understand what you’re saying but there is also a lot of weight on the other side the equation that can’t be discussed in this thread.

 

[Sciatic]

you're in the wrong part of the forum

I know I can’t say more than that. But for those who want to make a comparison to 2001 I think folks need to go to that parallel universe so the full breadth of factors can be discussed.

 

[Danskebjerge]

Well, it is still quite obvious...

Yes, it's obvious that Pogacar's speed was signicantly faster than Armstrong's. And at lower temperatures etc etc.

 

[Rollthedice]

Even Gee spanked Lance's time. Maybe air resistance is not what it used to be, the planet is changing. Hell, even gravity might not be the same.

 

[Valv.Piti]

And even rarer Adam Hansen W

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812166274991931402

View: https://twitter.com/HansenAdam/status/1812166274991931402?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Finally, first thing I have heard him say that I agree with.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

They’re doing the same what Visma did last year. Making the bad preparation count. The harder the better. He didn’t gained the minute I thought, but it was possible if he went earlier. If he’s feeling good again tomorrow, do it 1 more time. Some flatter stages and get ready to defend the last 3 hard days with a bigger margin.

Well, I overestimated Vingo ahead of this stage, it seems. Preparation shortcomings taking their toll has always been an option but I thought they might reveal at the very end of the race.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Also, today is totally incomparable to 2001 and 2005. Longer and harder stages and action from further out than Pla d'Adet