Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 15 14/7 Loudenvielle-Plateau de Beille 197.7k

[Netserk]

Honestly, if he conditions would be 5-10 degrees warmer throughout the race as it was in 2022, I think it would be different. I really do think it zaps Pog, and these low 20's temperatures have been perfect for Pog. 30 degrees tomorrow in the valleys.

Today in the valleys will be between 26 and 30 degrees, hottest at the bottom of Beille. I had hoped for more. At least the wind direction throughout the stage helps a bit, so at least the start of most climbs should feel quite hot. Still, this is merely an ordinary July day.

Nîmes will be hot - as always. Unfortunately, not even Nice will see blazing hot temperatures.

 

[James M]

Is this the hardest stage on paper this year? I mean with the lenght aswell. Last two mountains stages are shorter atleast. Seems like a brutal day today with a crazy final mountain.

 

[Offline]

Huh? I'm seeing a nice tailwind for Beille.

The wind will turn late in the afternoon, but the forecasts do not indicate that now. So looking like head-cross wind

 

[Gigs_98]

After yesterday UAE have absolutely no reason to control this break. They have the gap they need, now they just have to play it defensively without taking unnecessary risks. Today will be very hard to control and Jonas probably profits from a harder pace throughout the stage, so the only team that might have any interest in controlling is Visma. I think without yesterdays beating that would have been their plan today, but I wonder if they dare to challenge Pogi right now. Todays stage isn't that much harder than yesterdays after all. I wouldn't be surprised if they prefer to live to fight another day and go all out on the final three stages. Make this stage really hard and you might end up gifting another minute to Pogacar. And then it gets really, really hard to win.

So yeah, I'm expecting a breakaway win and would absolutely love it if Felix Gall tried to sneak in there.

 

[Scarponi]

What’s the record on the final climb? If it’s Pantani it’s not in danger, anyone else yes

 

[Jack_89]

The basic plan:
-Visma to drill Plateau de Beille and launch Jonas
-Pogacar to counterattack in the last 2km to grab some more seconds

 

[Gigs_98]

Is this the hardest stage on paper this year? I mean with the lenght aswell. Last two mountains stages are shorter atleast. Seems like a brutal day today with a crazy final mountain.

It's the stage with most vertical meters of climbing. That said, I still think stage 19 and perhaps stage 20 is a little harder because there is just no pause to the climbing there. It depends a lot on how it will be raced though. The first third of today is super tough, so if the right break goes things might never calm down which would make things very hard. Otherwise people could get some rest in the middle of the stage.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Yes, hot weather is a factor, not the only one, but one. Not super hot today, but yesterday was everything perfect for Poggi: they camenform some flat stages Flying. Flying on the first 70 km flat, not too fast Tourmalet, short stage, good temperature, great team work and an attack of 4 km when he is super.
It is going to be resslly difficult for Vingegaard to win this Tour but today can be very difficult .

This year there is no at the end a hard and quite long stage as Courchevel last year, but there are some good climbs and there are climbs from the begining, so I think we will have fight till the end.

Looking at the stages where Vingegaard made a difference against Pogi, I don't buy into the long stage theory. The stages where Vingegaard took time against Pogi have all been rather short.
I know that one day races and GT stages are not really good to compare, but the fact is that Pogacar has plenty of 200k+ wins, including GT stages and including e.g. stage 15 of this years Giro d'Italia, which was 222km long and finished at 2400m altitude. Which is not to say that short or shorter stages don't suit him.
But Vingegaad has one win over 200k in his carreer (Wednesday), and took all his time on Pogacar on shorter stages. So at least superficially it looks the other way around. Pogacar is a natural at long distances, Vingegaard we don't know yet, but it's not improbable he is.

 

[Nerlo]

The basic plan:
-Visma to drill Plateau de Beille and launch Jonas
-Pogacar to counterattack in the last 2km to grab some more seconds

I agree. Think this stage might become an anticlimax. Tadej has enough of a margin now to ride defensively on the remaining MTFs. Maybe take a few seconds with his acceleration

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

What’s the record on the final climb? If it’s Pantani it’s not in danger, anyone else yes

Yesterday Pogacar was ca. 2 minutes faster than Armstrongs record. What makes you so sure Pantanis record is not in danger? Sure longer climb and all, but it's not like he hasn't taken Pantani records before, if memory does not play a trick on me.

 

[KZD]

Break should probably take this stage but i wouldn't be surprised if Visma tries to make the race hard by putting someone like Van Aert there to then help Vingegaard on Plateau de Beille. I still expect expect Pogačar to be able to drop Vingegaard in the final part of the climb, as long as there is no headwind, but the gain should be small this time as this is a better climb for Vingegaard.

Carapaz for the stage win.

 

[Salvarani]

Looking at the stages where Vingegaard made a difference against Pogi, I don't buy into the long stage theory. The stages where Vingegaard took time against Pogi have all been rather short.
I know that one day races and GT stages are not really good to compare, but the fact is that Pogacar has plenty of 200k+ wins, including GT stages and including e.g. stage 15 of this years Giro d'Italia, which was 222km long and finished at 2400m altitude. Which is not to say that short or shorter stages don't suit him.
But Vingegaad has one win over 200k in his carreer (Wednesday), and took all his time on Pogacar on shorter stages. So at least superficially it looks the other way around. Pogacar is a natural at long distances, Vingegaard we don't know yet, but it's not improbable he is.

Hmm, stage 19 might be the one that suits Vinge most in that regard.

 

[madthebad]

Time for Pogi to make it stick before the Vingebot gets his latest update on the rest day.

 

[Salvarani]

I agree. Think this stage might become an anticlimax. Tadej has enough of a margin now to ride defensively on the remaining MTFs. Maybe take a few seconds with his acceleration

When the stage is this tough and final climb is the hardest... thats often how it goes. Nobody wants to blow up and lose everything.

 

[Jack_89]

Yesterday Pogacar was ca. 2 minutes faster than Armstrongs record. What makes you so sure Pantanis record is not in danger? Sure longer climb and all, but it's not like he hasn't taken Pantani records before, if memory does not play a trick on me.

I reviewed the stage yesterday afternoon: Pantani was going full gas practically from the bottom of the climb. and attacked after a couple of km. To undermine that record (as for the Alpe d'huez) they would have to go all out straight away with the best domestics and attack no later than -10km to the finish and don't look back. I find it complicated

 

[rghysens]

Today is the toughest MTF in this Tour. It will be interesting to compare the climbing times to Pantani's 1998 record of 43:20. Plateau de Beille is for the pure climbers: 15 km long, and it remains steep until 2 km before the finish.

The last 2-3 years all climbing records have been smashed by 5 - 10%, I expect the same today.

 

[James M]

When the stage is this tough and final climb is the hardest... thats often how it goes. Nobody wants to blow up and lose everything.

Agree normally only part which might make it the opposite is Pogacar is pogacar and he wanne win and the rest day tomorrow. I actually think pogacar and uae will look to do more damage today if that is including the stage win or not im not so sure since its so long and that middle flat section but again if its cause of the rest day I wouldnt be to sure about a anticlimax stage today but it might happen

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Hmm, stage 19 might be the one that suits Vinge most in that regard.

Agreed. This is the one I worry most about, but the overall wear and tear strategy can't be played by Visma this Tour. So I don't know if that's even a plan that can be carried out this way. Also I don't see Vingegaard outkicking Pogacar and what's coming is all not that steep, so he'll have a harder time just riding him off his wheel.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I reviewed the stage yesterday afternoon: Pantani was going full gas practically from the bottom of the climb. and attacked after a couple of km. To undermine that record (as for the Alpe d'huez) they would have to go all out straight away with the best domestics and attack no later than -10km to the finish and don't look back. I find it complicated

Complicated is granted, but the scenario doesn't seem totally outworldish to me. That being said: let Pantani keep some records.

 

[Martinstranger]

Looking like headwind in the final today

Uffff.... thats not good for attacks.

Huh? I'm seeing a nice tailwind for Beille.

Hope you are right, so we can see the riders go all out in attacks. It's so much more satisfying when they go all out.

 

[Kazistuta]

At least they'll be somewhat safer from crisps today, as the moron was arrested immediately after.

 

[gregrowlerson]

The last 2-3 years all climbing records have been smashed by 5 - 10%, I expect the same today.

They didn't get close to Alp d'Huez in 2022.

 

[Netserk]

The wind will turn late in the afternoon, but the forecasts do not indicate that now. So looking like head-cross wind

I've checked 3 different forecasts (windfinder, windy, meteoblue), all have the same mild, northern wind on Beille at 17:00.

 

[Taxus4a]

Looking at the stages where Vingegaard made a difference against Pogi, I don't buy into the long stage theory. The stages where Vingegaard took time against Pogi have all been rather short.
I know that one day races and GT stages are not really good to compare, but the fact is that Pogacar has plenty of 200k+ wins, including GT stages and including e.g. stage 15 of this years Giro d'Italia, which was 222km long and finished at 2400m altitude. Which is not to say that short or shorter stages don't suit him.
But Vingegaad has one win over 200k in his carreer (Wednesday), and took all his time on Pogacar on shorter stages. So at least superficially it looks the other way around. Pogacar is a natural at long distances, Vingegaard we don't know yet, but it's not improbable he is.

Maybe short becouse this era most of the harder stages are short. It is not a question of hours of race, time since first climb and how strong they made the long climbs. But best example was last year Courchevel stage. Maybe no super long, but long stage, with climbs from the begining and a super long climbs at the end. Bad for Poggi. The day of Galibier, the way Pogacar did too much importance to Roglic play a role butbit was a hard batle from far, wit a Big climb. If today GC riders just fight last climb, ITBIS aleays better for Vingegaard the stage is long than short. But if there IS just Battle that kast climb, I think Pogacar is the best this year.

 

[rghysens]

What’s the record on the final climb? If it’s Pantani it’s not in danger, anyone else yes

Why not? Vignegaard and Pogacar were on the schedule of Pantani´s record on the Joux Plane, until they eased off during the last 2km. I think they also equalled his record on the Croix Neuve in Mende. They smashed Romingers record on the east side of the Tourmalet last year and yesterday the times of Armstrong on Pla d´Adet by 2 minutes (on a climb that´s only 27-28 minutes long).