Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 15 14/7 Loudenvielle-Plateau de Beille 197.7k

[Netserk]

After yesterday UAE have absolutely no reason to control this break. They have the gap they need, now they just have to play it defensively without taking unnecessary risks. Today will be very hard to control and Jonas probably profits from a harder pace throughout the stage, so the only team that might have any interest in controlling is Visma. I think without yesterdays beating that would have been their plan today, but I wonder if they dare to challenge Pogi right now. Todays stage isn't that much harder than yesterdays after all. I wouldn't be surprised if they prefer to live to fight another day and go all out on the final three stages. Make this stage really hard and you might end up gifting another minute to Pogacar. And then it gets really, really hard to win.

So yeah, I'm expecting a breakaway win and would absolutely love it if Felix Gall tried to sneak in there.

Honestly, if they have given up on defeating Pogi, pacing all day should still be the plan to distance Evenepoel.

 

[rghysens]

They didn't get close to Alp d'Huez in 2022.

True, but they were marking eachother. I should have added: once one gets rid of the other.

 

[Colombiano Cadence]

Is Enric Mas still alive? This has been a shocker, even by his standards. Should absolute be in every break from now until Nice

 

[Colombiano Cadence]

Honestly, if they have given up on defeating Pogi, pacing all day should still be the plan to distance Evenepoel.

WTF? For real? Jonas doesn’t see Remco as a threat. And when you have won the TDF twice, second or third is immaterial. They ain’t pacing all day because of Remco, no way.

 

[Netserk]

Yesterday Pogacar was ca. 2 minutes faster than Armstrongs record. What makes you so sure Pantanis record is not in danger? Sure longer climb and all, but it's not like he hasn't taken Pantani records before, if memory does not play a trick on me.

Afaik, no Pantani records have yet been beaten by Pogi. He has been close on Mende & Joux Plane (and would have beaten the record both times if he went all-out).

But it's not like Pantani was a constant, and the Beille record is easily beatable if they go full-gas.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I think there will be an attack by Pogacar 5-6k from the finish on the steeper section, or alternatively Vingegaard. For the win or for GC. I would not be totally surprised if the break doesn't make it because the super hard start will ensure probably no rouleur is left to pull on the flat, or if they are the advantage won't be big enoug, because the climbs were done to slowly.

 

[Netserk]

I'm grasping for a Mongie 2004 scenario.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I'm grasping for a Mongie 2004 scenario.

Refresh my nonexisting Memory please, because I couldn't watch that Tour.

 

[Netserk]

Refresh my nonexisting Memory please, because I couldn't watch that Tour.

Lance gifted the stage win to Basso. The day after to Plateau de Beille, he wanted the win himself. On both days, the two finished in the same time with a gap to the rest.

 

[staubsauger]

As much as I would love to see Bardet win on Bastille day.

This has Carapaz written all over it!

Unless the likes of Ciccone, Gall & Hindley join the breakaway!

Pogačar can still attack hard after Almeida & Yates bomb into the Plateau climb. No urgent need to control the breakaway before.

 

[James M]

As much as I would love to see Bardet win on Bastille day.

This has Carapaz written all over it!

Unless the likes of Ciccone, Gall & Hindley join the breakaway!

Pogačar can still attack hard after Almeida & Yates bomb into the Plateau climb. No urgent need to control the breakaway before.

Think thats the most plausible scenario myself.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Stage with highest profile score in last grand tours.
YEAR RACE PROFILE SCORE WINNER
2024 Tour S15 to Plateau de Beille 366
2024 Giro S15 to Livigno (Mottolino) 397 POGAČAR Tadej
2023 Vuelta S17 to Altu de L'Angliru 464 ROGLIČ Primož
2023 Tour S17 to Courchevel 445 GALL Felix
2023 Giro S19 to Tre Cime di Lavaredo 478 BUITRAGO Santiago
2022 Vuelta S15 to Sierra Nevada 407 ARENSMAN Thymen
2022 Tour S18 to Hautacam 408 VINGEGAARD Jonas
2022 Giro S9 to Blockhaus 458 HINDLEY Jai
2021 Vuelta S18 to Altu d'El Gamoniteiru 509 LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel
2021 Tour S17 to Saint-Lary-Soulan (Col du Portet) 450 POGAČAR Tadej
2021 Giro S17 to Sega di Ala 408 MARTIN Dan
2020 Vuelta S12 to Alto de l'Angliru 452 CARTHY Hugh
2020 Giro S18 to Laghi di Cancano 400 HINDLEY Jai
2020 Tour S17 to Méribel - Col de la Loze 444 LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel
2019 Vuelta S9 to Cortals d’Encamp 394 POGAČAR Tadej

 

[Panda Claws]

Who will succeed Jelle Vanendert (Neerpelt, 19/02/1985)? The Belgian climber rose to prominence after a prestigious victory on Plateau de Beille in 2011 (14th stage of the Tour de France) followed by him being hailed as the meilleur grimpeur (best climber) until stage 19.

Having enjoyed such a considerable success it came as no surprise that he then pursued quieter seasons wherein he peaked only for certain goals. One highlight was a 2nd place in Amstel Gold Race just behind Enrico Gasparotto (Sacile, 23/03/1982) in the form of one's life. Another was his dominant win in the 4th stage of the Ronde van België (Belgium Tour) in 2018 where he finished solo.

As fans of any of the riders now leading the general classification we might wish for a breakaway victory lest we see another absolute star reach their peak too soon.

 

[dobrien]

As much as I would love to see Bardet win on Bastille day.

This has Carapaz written all over it!

Unless the likes of Ciccone, Gall & Hindley join the breakaway!

Pogačar can still attack hard after Almeida & Yates bomb into the Plateau climb. No urgent need to control the breakaway before.

Too bad all the climbing is neutered by the long valleys in between the climbs; this stage would be a lot more interesting (imho anyway) without 60k between the summit of Aspet and the start of the steeper climbing on Agnes. The climbing right out of the start should be fascinating in terms of seeing who got out of the wrong side of the bed but unless the stage is ridden super hard there are plenty of opportunities for people who are dropped to come back. This does seem like a day for the break but then again I was completely wrong about yesterday so what the hell do I know. I really doubt Ineos/SQS are going to allow Ciccone or Gall to go away in the break but definitely agree it's a great profile for Carapaz from a break if there is détente among the leaders until PdB.

Really hoping Remco and Jonas are feeling great today; that will make for the best show for me anyway.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Good morning, chaps!

Happy Bastille Day! Jonas had a bad day yesterday. He pulls to together today and wins on the summit, taking a few seconds from Tadaj.

 

[kingjr]

Lance gifted the stage win to Basso. The day after to Plateau de Beille, he wanted the win himself. On both days, the two finished in the same time with a gap to the rest.

I'm still not sure if that was a gift. He was hurting on Basso's wheel in the last 100-200m

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Stage with highest profile score in last grand tours.
YEAR RACE PROFILE SCORE WINNER
2024 Tour S15 to Plateau de Beille 366
2024 Giro S15 to Livigno (Mottolino) 397 POGAČAR Tadej
2023 Vuelta S17 to Altu de L'Angliru 464 ROGLIČ Primož
2023 Tour S17 to Courchevel 445 GALL Felix
2023 Giro S19 to Tre Cime di Lavaredo 478 BUITRAGO Santiago
2022 Vuelta S15 to Sierra Nevada 407 ARENSMAN Thymen
2022 Tour S18 to Hautacam 408 VINGEGAARD Jonas
2022 Giro S9 to Blockhaus 458 HINDLEY Jai
2021 Vuelta S18 to Altu d'El Gamoniteiru 509 LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel
2021 Tour S17 to Saint-Lary-Soulan (Col du Portet) 450 POGAČAR Tadej
2021 Giro S17 to Sega di Ala 408 MARTIN Dan
2020 Vuelta S12 to Alto de l'Angliru 452 CARTHY Hugh
2020 Giro S18 to Laghi di Cancano 400 HINDLEY Jai
2020 Tour S17 to Méribel - Col de la Loze 444 LÓPEZ Miguel Ángel
2019 Vuelta S9 to Cortals d’Encamp 394 POGAČAR Tadej

A glorious last place for this year‘s Tour in ‚stage with highest profile score‘

 

[Poursuivant]

At least they'll be somewhat safer from crisps today, as the moron was arrested immediately after.

Salt and Vingegaard

 

[Heston]

Today must surely be for the break. Although it has felt like that several times already this Tour and the break never made it.

 

[Rob5091]

Cooling jackets on so people expecting action from the gun or just hot today?

 

[noob]

Remco role model in mask 😷 ✨️

 

[ashhutch1997]

Remco role model in mask 😷 ✨️

Those particular masks have been proven to not have much affect in stopping thr spread of any particular virus. But if it makes him feel better so be it..

 

[ice&fire]

Is Enric Mas still alive? This has been a shocker, even by his standards. Should absolute be in every break from now until Nice

Does he even know how to get into a breakaway?

 

[dacooley]

Looking at the stages where Vingegaard made a difference against Pogi, I don't buy into the long stage theory. The stages where Vingegaard took time against Pogi have all been rather short.
I know that one day races and GT stages are not really good to compare, but the fact is that Pogacar has plenty of 200k+ wins, including GT stages and including e.g. stage 15 of this years Giro d'Italia, which was 222km long and finished at 2400m altitude. Which is not to say that short or shorter stages don't suit him.
But Vingegaad has one win over 200k in his carreer (Wednesday), and took all his time on Pogacar on shorter stages. So at least superficially it looks the other way around. Pogacar is a natural at long distances, Vingegaard we don't know yet, but it's not improbable he is.

That scenario covers the times when Vingo was clearly having upper hand on 30+ minutes climbing effort. Is thats tha case as of now? Seems doubful or at the very least thia edge is what must be proved once again. No that what what happening in 2022-23 Tours influences this stage...

 

[meat puppet]

Taking yesterday into account, Pog should just go for it again. There is no solution like the Ellen Ripley solution: nuking the entire site from the orbit.

Unless something drastic happens, the expectation is that Vinge ships up to a minute or so. And Pog is momentarily airborne when he reaches the summit.