On one hand, I understand if UAE decides to go all in for Pogačar but I think today is actually a good stage to try the multiple leader strategy and roll attacks on the steeper part of the Galibier with some of their leaders and then Pogačar ready to do one final blow. Alternatively they might also try to put Ayuso or Almeida in the breakaway to see how Visma responds to that.
I still think the most likely scenario is Pogačar to attack after UAE does a mountain train, Vingegaard is the only one capable to follow and Pogačar wins the sprints both at the top and at the finish line. I expect Carapaz to finish in the next group with Remco, Roglič, Rodriguez, Yates and Almeida.