Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

[Berniece]

Rogla would've won anyway.

Doubt it, if you can’t drop Thomas or barely drop Almeida in the mountains you any dropping Evenepoel. And Norway he would’ve taken enough time back in the last TT.

 

[houtdffan]

Doubt it, if you can’t drop Thomas or barely drop Almeida in the mountains you any dropping Evenepoel. And Norway he would’ve taken enough time back in the last TT.

Rog would have been buried on Bondone by Remco. Would have been Pico Jano all over again

 

[Gigs_98]

The thing with Remco is that his peaks are absolutely incredible, argubly higher than Roglic's, but he has massively struggled to string those together over an entire GT. He won the Vuelta once, but those bad days towards the end of the 2nd week don't end well for him if he is racing Vingegaard, Pogacar and Roglic in better shape. He couldn't sustain his level throughout the 2021 Giro, cracked massively in the high mountains of last years Vuelta and some people probably aren't 100% convinced him dropping in the Giro was an early covid symptom.

Now there are plausible explanations for all of those things, but once someone fails to consistently perform in a GT so many times, one starts wondering whether this is just an inherent weakness of him. I don't think anyone of us can say for sure, which is why I think he is such an interesting wildcard going into the Tour. If he can ride like in LBL 2023 for 21 days he might pose a huge problem for Vingegaard and Pogacar both not in perfect condition. But if he has done it for 19 days I will still not be certain he can do it on day 20 as well.

 

[Sciatic]

The thing with Remco is that his peaks are absolutely incredible, argubly higher than Roglic's, but he has massively struggled to string those together over an entire GT. He won the Vuelta once, but those bad days towards the end of the 2nd week don't end well for him if he is racing Vingegaard, Pogacar and Roglic in better shape. He couldn't sustain his level throughout the 2021 Giro, cracked massively in the high mountains of last years Vuelta and some people probably aren't 100% convinced him dropping in the Giro was an early covid symptom.

Now there are plausible explanations for all of those things, but once someone fails to consistently perform in a GT so many times, one starts wondering whether this is just an inherent weakness of him. I don't think anyone of us can say for sure, which is why I think he is such an interesting wildcard going into the Tour. If he can ride like in LBL 2023 for 21 days he might pose a huge problem for Vingegaard and Pogacar both not in perfect condition. But if he has done it for 19 days I will still not be certain he can do it on day 20 as well.

I think seeing how he will handle the challenge makes for another interesting facet of this coming Tour. Even if Vingegaard was restored to full health and dominates again (which seems unlikely) there are a lot of good stories among his competitors. In addition to Remco, I will be interested in how Pogacar fares after the Giro, and whether Roglic can be back to close to his best form.

 

[Potomac]

Remco has never finished better than Kuss in a GT.

So with the injuries to Rog and Ving, and Pog exhausted from the Giro, Kuss is the obvious choice.

 

[RedheadDane]

Doubt it, if you can’t drop Thomas or barely drop Almeida in the mountains you any dropping Evenepoel. And Norway he would’ve taken enough time back in the last TT.

If he'd gone to Norway, there would have been a problem.
Autocorrect playing tricks on you?

 

[Berniece]

If he'd gone to Norway, there would have been a problem.
Autocorrect playing tricks on you?

Haha, indeed should have been “no way”

 

[RedheadDane]

Haha, one should have been “no way”

Kinda figured.
Just looked funny: Middle of the Giro; no... he's in Norway.

 

[Rob5091]

So with the injuries to Rog and Ving, and Pog exhausted from the Giro, Kuss is the obvious choice.

You'll be giving LS a heart attack ... but you forgot the "other" guy doing the double - G!

 

[Potomac]

You'll be giving LS a heart attack ... but you forgot the "other" guy doing the double - G!

I thought about @-ing, LS on that post, but why poke the beast?

 

[AmRacer]

So we know that one of them is in a good shape. Can't wait to see what the other three can do.

 

[Rackham]

Doubt it, if you can’t drop Thomas or barely drop Almeida in the mountains you any dropping Evenepoel.

I don't mean to niggle here but this sort of stance makes it very difficult to appreciate conversations about riders & their form, i.e. you can't rewrite history with any certainties. So Evenepoel got Covid, okay, but Rogla crashed with Tao GH & carried that injury all the way to Rome.

"if if if"

It's impossible to extrapolate future performances with absolute certainty or rewrite previous races with any certainty either. Each race has its own little story & dramas. All we know is these 4 riders on paper have an advantage over the rest. But I mean what the hell, any of them could hit the deck in the first few stages of the Tour, suffer some small physical inconvenience & that's just enough for a top form Vlasov, Hindley or a resurgent Bernal to finish ahead in GC.

Then what? Are we going to hear how that changes everything for future races? I mean this sort of 'versus' conversation can quickly get a bit boring when selective memory takes precedence over the actual details of the race, the riders & their form at that moment.

 

[Berniece]

I don't mean to niggle here but this sort of stance makes it very difficult to appreciate conversations about riders & their form, i.e. you can't rewrite history with any certainties. So Evenepoel got Covid, okay, but Rogla crashed with Tao GH & carried that injury all the way to Rome.

"if if if"

It's impossible to extrapolate future performances with absolute certainty or rewrite previous races with any certainty either. Each race has its own little story & dramas. All we know is these 4 riders on paper have an advantage over the rest. But I mean what the hell, any of them could hit the deck in the first few stages of the Tour, suffer some small physical inconvenience & that's just enough for a top form Vlasov, Hindley or a resurgent Bernal to finish ahead in GC.

Then what? Are we going to hear how that changes everything for future races? I mean this sort of 'versus' conversation can quickly get a bit boring when selective memory takes precedence over the actual details of the race, the riders & their form at that moment.

You can have that opinion. Reason why I’m saying that I’m certain Evenepoel would’ve won that is also because Roglic wasn’t that strong. I think he was much stronger in the Vuelta.

 

[Rackham]

You can have that opinion. Reason why I’m saying that I’m certain Evenepoel would’ve won that is also because Roglic wasn’t that strong. I think he was much stronger in the Vuelta.

For context I'll say Monte Lussari wasn't a fluke (aka when he able to finally put a minute into Thomas). It was right about the time Rog started to feel seriously better nearly 10 days after his crash.

So who knows what would have happened had everyone stayed fit & seen the Giro through to the end. That's one of the problems with pro cycling as well, i.e. it's so dangerous & everyone is always crashing/getting sick, it makes direct comparisons really difficult. I mean even now there's Vinge & Pog fans still arguing about the 2023 TdF due to Pog's wrist injury in Liège. It is what it is.

IMO ( & this might not be in accordance with how his fans perceive things but it's how I see it), I think Evenepoel was at his absolute best back in the 2022 Vuelta. In that GT he was able to destroy short steep climbs, longer climbs & ITT's.

He hasn't been as good since either (for whatever reasons).

 

[staubsauger]

Since Vingegaard & Pogacar might arrive in France in the same shape due to circumstances potentially we're up for a big battle from the Pyrenees on. With Evenepoel on a super peak being a strong additional option. All 3 carry along vulnerabilities as well.

 

[Berniece]

IMO ( & this might not be in accordance with how his fans perceive things but it's how I see it), I think Evenepoel was at his absolute best back in the 2022 Vuelta. In that GT he was able to destroy short steep climbs, longer climbs & ITT's.

He hasn't been as good since either (for whatever reasons).

I agree that for GT’s he hasn’t been as good as back then. Maybe in the Giro but we don’t really know.

 

[Netserk]

Doubt it, if you can’t drop Thomas or barely drop Almeida in the mountains you any dropping Evenepoel. And Norway he would’ve taken enough time back in the last TT.

Evenepoel could only drop Mas once when he won the Vuelta and was overall slower in the mountain stages. Compare that with Rogla in the Vuelta last year.

 

[ppanther92]

I mean, on a peak form comparison a “big 4” simply doesn’t exist. You have Vingegaard > Pogacar >>> Roglic, Evenepoel, Thomas. But maybe the circumstances this year lead to something interesting.

 

[Gigs_98]

Evenepoel could only drop Mas once when he won the Vuelta and was overall slower in the mountain stages. Compare that with Rogla in the Vuelta last year.

But the post was about last years Giro where Roglic looked quite a bit worse than in the Vuelta. Yeah he only dropped Mas once in the 2022 Vuelta, but I think that level would have been perfectly sufficient to win last years Giro, considering the time gap he already had.

Now of course this does not take into account whether he would have cracked at altitude or something like that. But assuming he wouldn't have, I'm pretty sure his climbing level is more than good enough to win a race like the Giro last year.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

But the post was about last years Giro where Roglic looked quite a bit worse than in the Vuelta. Yeah he only dropped Mas once in the 2022 Vuelta, but I think that level would have been perfectly sufficient to win last years Giro, considering the time gap he already had.

Now of course this does not take into account whether he would have cracked at altitude or something like that. But assuming he wouldn't have, I'm pretty sure his climbing level is more than good enough to win a race like the Giro last year.

There are a lot of variables here, so I don’t think it’s super clear cut. But basically the key points are:

1. Roglic came into the Giro off of a very tough 2022 (crashes, injuries, setbacks, media blowback, etc.) and off-season surgery.
2. Remco came in arguably a little heavy.
3. Remco crushed everyone on the first ITT, beating Ganna, but didn’t put as much time into Roglic et al as many predicted.
4. Roglic launched his first attack on stage 8, a medium mountain stage, which resulted in Remco dropping 14 seconds to he, Tao, and G.
5. Remco won the second ITT, but by a lower margin.
6. Remco dropped out afterwards with Covid.
7. Roglic, Tao, and G all crashed on stage 14, with Tai getting the worst of it and dropping out, Roglic landing on his hip hard, necessitating multiple stitches in his hip, and G landing on top of Roglic and suffering no ill effects.
8. Roglic looked vulnerable on subsequent mountain stages and weaker than G in particular.
9. On the last stage, Roglic proves himself by far the strongest, crushing everyone on the climb during the final ITT despite a mechanical.

As a contextual point, I know someone who set a huge Pr in the marathon and qualified for Boston only to wake up the next day unable to function with a terrible case of Covid.

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel could only drop Mas once when he won the Vuelta and was overall slower in the mountain stages. Compare that with Rogla in the Vuelta last year.

The Mas that was able to follow Pogacar in Lombardia

 

[AmRacer]

The Mas that was able to follow Pogacar in Lombardia

A monument isn't the same as a GT.

 

[Berniece]

A monument isn't the same as a GT.

Point is that he was at his best

 

[AmRacer]

Point is that he was at his best

Rogla, Mas or Poggi?

 

[Froome]

I mean, on a peak form comparison a “big 4” simply doesn’t exist. You have Vingegaard > Pogacar >>> Roglic, Evenepoel, Thomas. But maybe the circumstances this year lead to something interesting.

I put Hindley above Thomas.