Tour de France Femmes 2024 (August 12th-18th)

[awavey]

Bredewold is Vollering's bodyguard. Majerus had done her job for the day, so it doesn't really matter how much time she lost.

If Mischa is her bodyguard why is there not more than a cigarette papers width between them at all times. In theory she should have been taken out in the same crash, right ?

 

[Andy262]

Tremendous day for Ghekiere. Winning there in the polka dots will be a photo for her mantelpiece.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think tomorrow climbs suit Niewiadoma better, if team can just tame her down to not work for others with those closing gaps when not her job.

This may be the clearest example of a Sisyphean task in today's world, to be honest...

 

[Netserk]

I wouldn't see it as same gradient but 50% longer, I'd just see it as ~20-25% steeper, for the same distance cause speed goes down for women which means air resistance goes down too.

Yeah, I think that's a good rule of thumb for translating climbs.

 

[meat puppet]

Agree with RR here. DV should make it a longer effort. If they are somewhat matched in terms of w/kg, which I kinda hope to be the case but don't really dare to believe as yet, absolutes may also come to play when the effort is made longer. Vollering is bigger so has more muscle mass so can store more glycogen and can probably eat more (notwithstanding kasia munchies at 4:20, it's in competition after all); bike+kit weight is a lesser proportion of total system weight. Probably has the advantage in the valley/flats. Etc. So the idea would be to make these things add up and count.

Would be great if niewiadoma has an answer though.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Prediction: Kasia & Demi spend too much time faffing around & looking at each other that a French rider goes on to the win the Tour. Worst case scenario: Puck.

 

[awavey]

It is going to be really close tomorrow I think. Vollering is stronger, but I don't know if she is strong enough to make up that time. I think it is about 50-50. I am hoping that Niewiadoma wins by 1 second to make SD-Worx pay for Thursday's disgrace

as much as I want to see SD-Worx pay for that, I dont want to see Demi be the one who suffers for it.

 

[awavey]

Well she's achieved what she came for and after losing the green jersey yesterday, it didn't really much sense to continue when she's most likely going to be OTL tomorrow anyway.

DSM are reporting fatigue, tbh Id check her for covid (even though shes been setting QoM times on Strava) as shes been hanging out the back since stage 4, but Becky Storrie who was pulling her around since then broke her collarbone in a crash today

 

[Oldermanish]

Aspin + Tourmalet, 2023 TDFF:
Vollering 1st
Niewiadoma 2nd +1'58

Les Mosses + Torgon, 2023 Tour de Romandie:
Vollering 1st
Niewiadoma 2nd +0'02

Ballon d'Alsace + Super Planche, 2022 TDFF:
Vollering 2nd +30
Niewiadoma 4th +1'52

Petit Ballon + Platzerwasel + Grand Ballon, 2022 TDFF:
Vollering 2nd +3'26
Niewiadoma 5th +5'18

Croix + Villars-sur-Ollon, 2024 Tour de Suisse:
Vollering 1st
Niewiadoma 12th +1'41

I'd say that this still looks on historical precedent to be in Demi's court, at least as long as she explodes things early on to take intra-team stuff out of it. I always go on a rule of thumb also for looking at gaps created by a climb that the women's races are approximately 33% shorter on average than the men's races, therefore the climbs are 50% longer as a proportion of the race (i.e. a 20km climb will be 1/6 of a 120km stage, but 1/9 of a 180km stage), so you should treat a climb in women's cycling as equivalent to if that climb was 50% longer in men's cycling. There's a lot of Unipuerto in women's cycling, and even on some of those tougher stages with 2-3 climbs, the mid-stage climbs have not been as tough as Glandon, so it could well just blow up from attrition by the top of that climb anyway. 20km at 7% is brutal enough in anyone's language, but as I say, by my rule of thumb it should do as much damage in the women's péloton as 30km at 7% would in the men's. And there really aren't too many climbs that monstrous that could be used as guides either. And those that there are mostly aren't used in racing (things like Roque de los Muchachos in the Canary Islands, Pico de Orizaba in Mexico) or are only possible as MTFs (Blockhaus from Scafa)...

Today could've been a more dramatic day if they included the remaining 4-5km to the summit. It gets much steeper for the last 2+km and Demi's gap would been a minute, not 2 seconds. Tough when the organizer favors optics, vehicle logistics and fan presence as more important than a finish that is right in front of everyone's face.

 

[Oldermanish]

I do think bigger gaps between riders in general does mean penultimate climbs tend to be paced more slowly sometimes, like the choo choo trains are less strong than the men's.

I was watching the Giro Donne Blockhaus stage and it looked so weird to me how a reduced group crested the first Lanciano and then literally nobody paced on the downhill and everyone got back.

In my opinion, Vollering should go ham on the final 5km of Glandon tomorrow, fo the simple reason that if you're not 1'20 stronger but you are strong enough to drop Niewiadoma then you probably win it by making it a 2 hour effort.

I like the strategy but a 2 hr effort finishing up the Alpe has alot of usually windy downhill and flat to coalesce a pursuit or see lessor riders fade. Most of the riders with any shot of improving or preserving their GC are not teammates and may have no allies willing to work this late into a tiring GT; so it's an iffy proposition to rely on last stage coalitions.
That means whomever hits the Alpe with relatively less prior effort may prosper. If Demi makes Niewaiadoma work together she has a shot. Solo may just leave her too tired to finish it off.

 

[Wvv]

Really happy for Ghekiere. A lively person, all about smiling, late-bloomer and who knows what her limits are? She's doing a really nice Tour and I hope she brings the polkadots home.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Prediction: Kasia & Demi spend too much time faffing around & looking at each other that a French rider goes on to the win the Tour. Worst case scenario: Puck.

Love to see Puck win.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I could see a scenario where Kasia is slightly closer to Vollerings level than last year but the problem for her is that Alpe d'Huez is literally the perfect climb for Vollering to gain back a minute plus because it levels off at the end.
She'll get separation at the lower/middle parts where draft barely matters and her w/kg is simply higher than Niewiadoma. And if there's a gap, even if Kasia keeps it somehow in distance on the steep parts I reckon she will lose quite a bit on these last 4km where Vollering will simply choochoo with more power.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Stage 8: Le Grand-Bornand - Alpe d'Huez, 150 km

Start time: 14:00 CEST. There will be live pictures from 16:00-ish
Expected finish time: Around 19:00, but possibly later

The day has come. It's finally time for the women's peloton to return to the gruesome giant of Glandon and the 21 historic hairpins of Alpe d'Huez.

As route details aren't that easy to come by, I am not completely sure how many times the Col du Glandon has featured in women's races, but I know it was climbed in the Pierre Boué led Tour Cycliste/Grande Boucle Féminine in at least 1995 and 2002, both times following an ascent of Col de la Madeleine before finishing at Vaujany. The Alpe d'Huez hosted the final stage of the 1992, 1993 and 1994 editions of the race. Leontien van Moorsel won there the first two times, while Rasa Polikevičiūtė was victorious 30 years and 12 days ago.

Van Moorsel beat Jeannie Longo to the line on the Alpe in 1992, thus securing the overall victory by just 9 seconds over her French rival after 10 days of racing

Today's depart réel will be in Thônes. The road goes gently uphill from the start with last few kilometres of the Col du Marais, but the first real challenge is the Col de Tamié which starts after 17 km.

This is followed by a descent and 40 km through the valley, which contain the last intermediate sprint of the race. Marianne Vos only has to finish to win the green jersey, but that doesn't exclude that she might be part of a breakaway at this point of the stage.

However everything that has happened on this stage so far and in the race as well has just been some small hors d'oeuvres to what awaits next. Starting from the bottom of Glandon, the last 70 km will determine the final outcome of this year's Tour de France Femmes.

After the riders have crossed the top of Glandon at over 1900m, they'll descent back down again.

16 km of mostly flat roads will lead us to Le Bourg-d'Oisans for the final climb of the race.

It is here, on the well known slopes of the Alpe d'Huez that a new name will get to be associated with this mythical ascent until the end of time, and where the 2024 Tour champion will be crowned.

Which of these young, aspiring cyclists will make their dreams come true today?

 

[Izzyeviel]

Stop fiddling with the time slot.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Stop fiddling with the time slot.

I think all the stages should finish at around 17:00 local time. I don't mind that the last stage finish later than the rest, but it should always have full coverage. There's a chance, they will already be on Glandon before we get the first live pictures.

 

[yaco]

It's an interesting stage because I wonder how many women have done a 19km climb. Gee, the men would only do this length climb once or twice a year.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Ghekiere is unsurprisingly active at the beginning of the stage. She leads Pieterse by 16 points in the QOM standings with a maximum of 35 left to gain. It is theoretically possible for both Vollering and Niewiadoma to surpass her, but it doesn't seem that realistic. If Ghekiere get the 5 points on Col de Tamié, then I think she has secured the jersey.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

It's an interesting stage because I wonder how many women have done a 19km climb. Gee, the men would only do this length climb once or twice a year.

Tourmalet is also thereabouts, and those that did Avenir last year rode Cormet de Roselend.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

If the composition of the break is accurate, then Vollering only has NFB with her, and they definitely can't use each other's bikes, so the team cars will have to stay alert (for once).

 

[ice&fire]

Just recalling the last Vuelta stage this year and how small was the main group over the Morcuera I'm not sure we'll see more than 5 riders together at the front over the Glandon. Demi could use it to get rid of her teammates before tackling her opponents at AdH.

 

[meat puppet]

So SDW put four riders up the road. A bit perplexing, but at least it's a way to ensure they dont help at all.

 

[JR1012]

So SDW put four riders up the road. A bit perplexing, but at least it's a way to ensure they dont help at all.

Better to be ahead and maybe get before Vollering over the climb when she attacks over the Glandon, so that they can help in the descent and the flat part before the last climb.

If they would be in the peleton they all would be dropped on the first climb.

 

[ice&fire]

Better to be ahead and maybe get before Vollering over the climb when she attacks over the Glandon, so that they can help in the descent and the flat part before the last climb.

If they would be in the peleton they all would be dropped on the first climb.

After having been taken to the ground by one of her own teammates Demi probably prefers them to be behind.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Women cycling is so anarchic. How could Canyon let 4 SDW in the front?