ASO has said they won't stop Bert from riding the Tour. I really don't understand the decision, they kept his team out in 2008 when he hadn't tested positive, but there it is.
If you want to blame someone, blame RFEC for clearing him. Once he was cleared, I don’t blame Bert at all for returning to racing. Suppose he stopped racing, and he was cleared at the end of August. He’s missed a chance to ride any one of this year’s GTs. I don’t think he will be cleared, I don’t think he should be cleared, but his desire not to throw away an entire season unnecessarily is entirely understandable.
There doesn’t seem to be much downside for him. If he had remained sidelined when he was cleared in February, and then was given a 2 year suspension by CAS say at the end of this August, he would have been eligible to return to racing I believe on July 21, 2012. So he would have lost his 2010 TDF, all results in 2011, and any chance for the TDF in 2012. He would in principle be able to ride the Vuelta in 2012, but he would have very little time to race in preparation for that. And remember he would not have raced at all for more than two years at that point. That’s a long layoff to come off of and do well in a GT, even for him.
Now suppose he loses his case after he has been racing this season. He loses the 2010 TDF, and all of his 2011 results. Since he served about four and a half months suspension, I believe that with a two year suspension, dating from the end of this August and taking into account time served, he would be eligible to return around the middle of April 2013. So while he would lose a chance to ride in the 2012 Vuelta, which he probably couldn’t have prepared adequately for anyway, and early season races in 2013, he would probably still be able to prepare adequately for the 2013 Tour.
There are other advantages to continuing to race now. If he had stayed suspended, he would have been out of racing for almost two consecutive seasons, a layoff that might be difficult to come back from very quickly. As it stands now, if he loses his case he will mostly miss just one full season, next year. If he rides the TDF this year he will be pretty much finished for this season after that, anyway, and as I said, he would miss only a few early races in 2013. Also, though he would lose all his results for 2011 no matter how he played it, history will not forget that those results.
All of this assumes a two year suspension, of course. I don't see how a sanction can be any less. If CAS actually buys the contaminated meat theory, he should not be suspended at all IMO. There is already precedent with that Danish rider, and arguably, IF you buy the meat scenario--as much as the evidence indicates against it--Bert's situation is better than the Danish guy's. Because one could argue that the Danish guy should have known that meat in Mexico might be contaminated (I think it was Colo who got a 1 year suspension for the same situation, the logic there apparently that he should have known, that he was partly at fault), whereas Bert at least has all the evidence in the world on his side when he argues he should not have to take care in eating Spanish meat.
If CAS does rule a one year suspension, though, and they don't accept UCI's request to vacate all of this year's results, I could see a much brighter situation for Bert. They could argue that this year's results are valid, because he tested negative throughout. Giving him credit for time served, they could allow him to come back next April, having lost nothing at all except his 2010 TDF title. I don't think this is the right way to go, but if there is any politics going on, I can see a push for a resolution like this. A suspension and lost TDF title allows everyone to say that they're cracking down even on the biggest star, while his return next spring would mean that he effectively doesn't miss any important races.
If you want to blame someone, blame RFEC for clearing him. Once he was cleared, I don’t blame Bert at all for returning to racing. Suppose he stopped racing, and he was cleared at the end of August. He’s missed a chance to ride any one of this year’s GTs. I don’t think he will be cleared, I don’t think he should be cleared, but his desire not to throw away an entire season unnecessarily is entirely understandable.
There doesn’t seem to be much downside for him. If he had remained sidelined when he was cleared in February, and then was given a 2 year suspension by CAS say at the end of this August, he would have been eligible to return to racing I believe on July 21, 2012. So he would have lost his 2010 TDF, all results in 2011, and any chance for the TDF in 2012. He would in principle be able to ride the Vuelta in 2012, but he would have very little time to race in preparation for that. And remember he would not have raced at all for more than two years at that point. That’s a long layoff to come off of and do well in a GT, even for him.
Now suppose he loses his case after he has been racing this season. He loses the 2010 TDF, and all of his 2011 results. Since he served about four and a half months suspension, I believe that with a two year suspension, dating from the end of this August and taking into account time served, he would be eligible to return around the middle of April 2013. So while he would lose a chance to ride in the 2012 Vuelta, which he probably couldn’t have prepared adequately for anyway, and early season races in 2013, he would probably still be able to prepare adequately for the 2013 Tour.
There are other advantages to continuing to race now. If he had stayed suspended, he would have been out of racing for almost two consecutive seasons, a layoff that might be difficult to come back from very quickly. As it stands now, if he loses his case he will mostly miss just one full season, next year. If he rides the TDF this year he will be pretty much finished for this season after that, anyway, and as I said, he would miss only a few early races in 2013. Also, though he would lose all his results for 2011 no matter how he played it, history will not forget that those results.
All of this assumes a two year suspension, of course. I don't see how a sanction can be any less. If CAS actually buys the contaminated meat theory, he should not be suspended at all IMO. There is already precedent with that Danish rider, and arguably, IF you buy the meat scenario--as much as the evidence indicates against it--Bert's situation is better than the Danish guy's. Because one could argue that the Danish guy should have known that meat in Mexico might be contaminated (I think it was Colo who got a 1 year suspension for the same situation, the logic there apparently that he should have known, that he was partly at fault), whereas Bert at least has all the evidence in the world on his side when he argues he should not have to take care in eating Spanish meat.
If CAS does rule a one year suspension, though, and they don't accept UCI's request to vacate all of this year's results, I could see a much brighter situation for Bert. They could argue that this year's results are valid, because he tested negative throughout. Giving him credit for time served, they could allow him to come back next April, having lost nothing at all except his 2010 TDF title. I don't think this is the right way to go, but if there is any politics going on, I can see a push for a resolution like this. A suspension and lost TDF title allows everyone to say that they're cracking down even on the biggest star, while his return next spring would mean that he effectively doesn't miss any important races.