Who will win 2015 Milan - San Remo?

[samhocking]

So you think Swift's 3rd with Sagan & Cavendish behind him was just luck? Obviously you can be lucky with positioning for a sprint, but I think he's got as good a chance as anyone in that type of sprint after the poggio. Same finish too.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re: Re:

Bonifazio thinks his chances are good

I'd say his teammate Cimolai has a much better chance.
I can't even remember a 21 year old rider winning Milano Sanremo. Maybe Merckx.

Yeah Bonifazio won't win it but he thinks he can give it a good shot. Cimolai is their better option as I doubt Bonifazio can last the distance.

 

[IndianCyclist]

this year's race will be sprinters teams vs the attackers. Whichever group cooperates, the winner will come from that group

 

[MatParker117]

Re: Re:

Bonifazio thinks his chances are good

I'd say his teammate Cimolai has a much better chance.
I can't even remember a 21 year old rider winning Milano Sanremo. Maybe Merckx.

The age of the youngest winner Ugo Agostoni. Eddy Merckx was 20 years, but slightly older than when the Italian won in 1914.


Read more at http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/lat ... iFWAySC.99

 

[The Hitch]

I'm thinking the time is ripe for Degenkolb this year. I don't know why, I'm just feeling it

The thing is, Degenkolb hasn't been sprinting that well this year. And beating Kristoff after 300 km's? Good luck (just take a look at last year's MSR or last year's Worlds). That said, Degenkolb is the second biggest favorite to win, especially since he climbs a lot better than Kristoff.

Didn't Degenkolb have a mechanical last years MSR?

I think he could have won that edition. Maybe this year no.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I'm thinking the time is ripe for Degenkolb this year. I don't know why, I'm just feeling it

The thing is, Degenkolb hasn't been sprinting that well this year. And beating Kristoff after 300 km's? Good luck (just take a look at last year's MSR or last year's Worlds). That said, Degenkolb is the second biggest favorite to win, especially since he climbs a lot better than Kristoff.

Didn't Degenkolb have a mechanical last years MSR?

I think he could have won that edition. Maybe this year no.

Agreed.

 

[SafeBet]

He punctured at the bottom of the Poggio if I'm not mistaken.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

So you think Swift's 3rd with Sagan & Cavendish behind him was just luck? Obviously you can be lucky with positioning for a sprint, but I think he's got as good a chance as anyone in that type of sprint after the poggio. Same finish too.

That was a great result for him, and I'm sure it wasn't all down to luck. However, it's pretty much the biggest result he's had in his career, and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can beat a field of all the best sprinters. Even last year he finished a long way behind Kristoff and was out-sprinted by Cancellara. So to win he would have to repeat the best performance of his career so far, but finish even more strongly.

It just seems a shame that guys with superb engines like Stannard and Thomas will probably chase down breaks all day and try to keep the race together for a guy who has a very small chance of winning.

 

[JayKosta]

I hope it's a clean 'race finish' determined by tactics and ability.

Jay Kosta
Endwell NY USA

 

[samhocking]

Will be interesting to see what he can do this year. Last year it wasn't a target race and he was called up last minute, this time it's his first main goal of the season. He certainly seemed to have plenty of sprint left in him last year, just he was a little boxed in behind Cancellera.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

So you think Swift's 3rd with Sagan & Cavendish behind him was just luck? Obviously you can be lucky with positioning for a sprint, but I think he's got as good a chance as anyone in that type of sprint after the poggio. Same finish too.

That was a great result for him, and I'm sure it wasn't all down to luck. However, it's pretty much the biggest result he's had in his career, and I haven't seen anything to suggest that he can beat a field of all the best sprinters. Even last year he finished a long way behind Kristoff and was out-sprinted by Cancellara. So to win he would have to repeat the best performance of his career so far, but finish even more strongly.

It just seems a shame that guys with superb engines like Stannard and Thomas will probably chase down breaks all day and try to keep the race together for a guy who has a very small chance of winning.

Many teams will be supporting riders who most likely won't win the race. I don't think teams really think like that. They have faith in their leaders and support them to the best of their abilities. Truth is Swift has a greater chance of winning this race than Thomas or Stannard, so it makes sense that they would ride for him.

 

[Richeypen]

Re: Re:

But if Stannard were to win it would had to have been one hell of a race. He doesnt win easy.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

[quote="

Many teams will be supporting riders who most likely won't win the race. I don't think teams really think like that. They have faith in their leaders and support them to the best of their abilities. Truth is Swift has a greater chance of winning this race than Thomas or Stannard, so it makes sense that they would ride for him.

The difference from most teams is that Sky has one of the biggest budgets in the sport and has a great squad for Milan San-Remo, but only Swift as a 'finisher'. I can't think of another team that has such a strong set of riders for this race, but such a comparatively weak leader.

 

[KubaWinter]

What's wrong? To put in the poll Stybar and Demare and skip current world chapion? That's a brave move. I'm not saying that Kwiatkowski is going to win, but last time nobody spoke a word about him, he delivered fantastic ride for the rainbow jersey. He is devil on a descents, timetrials above the average and got the cyclign nose. Showed a good form in France. He got problems with finishing this race in the past, but still... Demare?!

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

[quote="

Many teams will be supporting riders who most likely won't win the race. I don't think teams really think like that. They have faith in their leaders and support them to the best of their abilities. Truth is Swift has a greater chance of winning this race than Thomas or Stannard, so it makes sense that they would ride for him.

The difference from most teams is that Sky has one of the biggest budgets in the sport and has a great squad for Milan San-Remo, but only Swift as a 'finisher'. I can't think of another team that has such a strong set of riders for this race, but such a comparatively weak leader.

That's probably where we disagree. I think Sky has a pretty good classics team for most of the classics, but I don't think MSR is one that suits their riders very much (when it comes to having an actual winner...they have a great team of support riders.) That's why IMO Swift is their best chance...I think he'll get them a top 10, and as a team that's the best they can hope for from any of their riders. We shall see soon.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

[quote="



That's probably where we disagree. I think Sky has a pretty good classics team for most of the classics, but I don't think MSR is one that suits their riders very much (when it comes to having an actual winner...they have a great team of support riders.) That's why IMO Swift is their best chance...I think he'll get them a top 10, and as a team that's the best they can hope for from any of their riders. We shall see soon.

Yeah you're probably right - the team is only as good as the leader. If Sky and others can force a selection on the final climb so that Swift finds himself in a select group with, for example, Sagan, Canc and Matthews, he might have half a chance. Tough ask though to leave most of the really fast guys behind.

 

[Flamin]

GVA says Gilbert is co-leader, so I predict both attacking at the same time on the Poggio, with Greg on the left of the road and Phil on the right.

Also Roelandts will get his own chance instead of looking after Greipel.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Also Roelandts will get his own chance instead of looking after Greipel.

Sounds like they're just going to see how it plays out. Anyway, they have a strong team and a few different options:

Frison:

"We have several opportunities. Wellens or Vanendert can escape. Greipel is our man for the sprint, but also Roelandts and Gallopin aren’t slow. Boeckmans is in top condition. The signs are positive for us."

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Sounds like they're just going to see how it plays out. Anyway, they have a strong team and a few different options:

Frison:

"We have several opportunities. Wellens or Vanendert can escape. Greipel is our man for the sprint, but also Roelandts and Gallopin aren’t slow. Boeckmans is in top condition. The signs are positive for us."

Yes, they're probably just going to wait and wait, which would be classic Lotto.

 

[winkybiker]

I'd love to see Sagan fulfil his promise. The possibility of rain helps him, I think.

 

[wirral]

Re: Re:

[quote="

Many teams will be supporting riders who most likely won't win the race. I don't think teams really think like that. They have faith in their leaders and support them to the best of their abilities. Truth is Swift has a greater chance of winning this race than Thomas or Stannard, so it makes sense that they would ride for him.

The difference from most teams is that Sky has one of the biggest budgets in the sport and has a great squad for Milan San-Remo, but only Swift as a 'finisher'. I can't think of another team that has such a strong set of riders for this race, but such a comparatively weak leader.

Unfortunately they lost Viviani, I assume, due to his crash injuries in Stage 2 of Tirreno - Adriatico.

 

[Sasquatch]

Okay, so the finish has changed this year, yeah? How many KM's is the finish from the bottom of the Poggio this year compared to last year?

 

[Flyjin3]

Why is Kwiatkowski not on the list?

Stybar, tztztz....

 

[DBotero]

So EBH+Goss+Ciolek vs Kristoff should be a close call

 

[indianfanboy]

Sagan to take it after breaking away with Kwia in the rainy descent