Who Will Win the 2015 Vuelta a Espana?

[The Hitch]

Vino option meme still ongoing

 

[Taxus4a]

Now I think Valverde.

 

[52520Andrew]

Aru: 65%
TD: 20%
Purito: 10%
Other: 5%

 

[rafaelalencar]

Heart: Dumoulin or Purito
Reason: Aru

 

[LaFlorecita]

Aru 50%
Dumoulin 25%
Rodriguez 18%
Majka 12%
Other 5%
My very scientific estimations

I think Aru will lose 2 minutes max in the ITT. He lost 2'45" to Alberto in the Giro in 60kms.

Where's the CI's ?

 

[Gigs_98]

I just noticed that the flat section after the top of the Puerto de Cotos (last climb stage 20) could suddenly be great. If dumoulin is in front of aru after the TT aru probably has to attack there and he has to attack early in that climb because if he only has about half a minute advantage on the top dumoulin may catch him. I just hope aru wont be too strong on the remaining mtf's so we still have a good fight for gc in the last week

 

[jens_attacks]

The only battle dumoulin will fight it will be about his 3rd place. And majka plus dani moreno will most likely bury him in that stage.

Dumoulin has no team!

 

[Escarabajo]

I just noticed that the flat section after the top of the Puerto de Cotos (last climb stage 20) could suddenly be great. If dumoulin is in front of aru after the TT aru probably has to attack there and he has to attack early in that climb because if he only has about half a minute advantage on the top dumoulin may catch him. I just hope aru wont be too strong on the remaining mtf's so we still have a good fight for gc in the last week

Too many other things can happen before that. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

But yes that stage can be good if a climber is behind in time to Dumoulin who has no team.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Now I think Valverde.

Now you're talking!

 

[skidmark]

Here's what I posted immediately after stage 11:

Interesting day, not decisive but telling. Here's how I see the GC chances:

Aru - 60%

I think pretty firmly that this guy's going to pick up his maiden GT. He was clearly the best today, and he's the only big contender without back-to-back GTs in the legs. He's middling in the TT, but he already has enough time on everyone but Dumoulin to possibly hold the lead even if it was as it is now. Of course, 3 more big MTFs before the TT mean that he'll get a half minute here and there on others before the TT if he continues to be the strongest.

Rodriguez - 15%

I can't believe that I think he has a chance at this, but he seems the most solid of the rest of the lot (except Dumoulin, but I'll get to him). He was pretty spent on the punchy finish the other day, and pretty spent at the end of today, so I have a hard time believing he can do more than just hang in there (although if he handles fatigue better than others, maybe he can claw back some time on the 3 MTFs). Basically he needs to stay solid and hope that either Aru's performance today was a fluke, or that Aru bonks and loses a ton on some stage. But as it stands right now, he might be able to hold Valv and Majka off in the TT with a minute on them. The others within 3 minutes (Nieve, Chaves, Moreno) are some of the few GC guys worse than him in a TT.

Dumoulin - 10%

He hung tough today, and that was impressive. Plus, guys will need at least 3-4 minutes on him in the TT. But I think they'll get it. Doing well on the punchy climbs was expected, if not to the degree of winning vs. Froome/Rodriguez. Doing this well in the high mountains is a surprise, but it's just a stage. A GT is a grind, and he's not used to that kind of recovery. I think it's pretty good odds that he bleeds a lot of time on at least one of the 3 MTFs, and probably all of them.

Majka - 5%

Not quite good enough to go with the best today, but held his own well and came back to within a handful of seconds to Purito. Could be a sneaky good pick going forwards, is okay at TT, is an attacking rider. I favour him for a podium, if not the win.

rest of the field - 10%

Who knows, we could be in for a surprise. But of all the guys that are close, Valv looks to be fading after a loooong season, I have the same doubts about Chaves' recovery as I do Dumoulin, and Nieve/Moreno are simply second-tier. If I had to pick a dark horse for a surprise, I'd pick Moreno, because he looked better than his leader today and doesn't have the Tour in his legs. But the hierarchy is clear at Katusha, so I think he's leashed (and seems to be happy working for Purito). Interestingly, Froome didn't pack it in today and is still in the top 15. Not that I think he could win, but he could pull a Nibali-in-the-Tour game of correcting himself and coming back up bit by bit.

After today... phew! Hard to read the tea-leaves in such a close stage, but I would maybe put Aru down 5% and put Quintana at 5-10% (with 'rest of the field' maybe going down to 5%). This could shake out in a number of interesting ways. First, with two steeper finishes to go in the next few days, it doesn't look good for Dumoulin that he lost a bit of time today, because one would think he'd stand to lose more on the next two stages. On the other hand, Purito looked strong(ish), and my prediction about him handling fatigue might come into play. Compare his ride on the stage Dumoulin won, where he waited and didn't make any moves, and then when he tried to come around Froome he just didn't have it. Then, stage 11, he's better than anyone but Aru (and Moreno) but has all the trouble he can find just following Moreno. Today, he closed on Aru after being gapped, put time into Valverde and Dumoulin, and briefly got away on some 9% stuff and was strong enough to hold everyone off by a second or a few. If he felt the same tomorrow and the next day on steeper stuff that's more his terrain (the 'gain 20-30 seconds in the last 1.5km' sort of climbs) then he's got a real shot. It's hard to get a real reference point given Aru's relatively short pro career, but I'd put him quite close to the (post-2012) Rodriguez in terms of flat TTs of this length... maybe I'd give him the edge because his skills are still developing, but it wouldn't surprise me to see these guys within 30 seconds of each other either way. If Purito is really close to Aru, or ahead of him, going into the TT, he could possibly have the lead after it.

On the other hand, the most interesting scenario would be if Dumoulin hung in enough to get the lead back by, say, a minute after the TT, with Aru and Purito on his heels. That would make the last few stages guaranteed to be pretty entertaining. I don't think it's going to happen, though. If he digs and holds on for dear life and is still within 90 seconds after these mountains, you've gotta think his tank will be pretty empty going into the TT and he wouldn't produce the normal performance one would expect.

But finally, I couldn't help but be struck by Quintana's performance today. If this is what he looks like the day after almost pulling out, I gotta believe he's got a (however long) shot at pulling back 3 minutes, especially if you think he's a better TTer than Aru or Purito, as I do. If he's indeed recovered from whatever it was and today is indicative of his 'real' level, it's a definite possibility that he could pull out a minute on the other guys in the next two days. I guess that still leaves a tall order to win, but I've got to give him at least a 5% shot.

 

[Andre.J]

good analysis ......
Dumoulin can still claw back even if he's 3 or 4 minutes back.....the other contenders only got 19 seconds on him today.

 

[Andre.J]

but honestly I think the fight will be between Purito and Aru.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

but honestly I think the fight will be between Purito and Aru.

I would like to see that fight but I doubt it. Purito will loose time on aru in the ITT and I doubt he will be able to gain enough time on the next two days. Moreover he isnt that good for downhill finishes, especially downhill finishes like stage 20 where we have a flat section before the descent.

 

[cineteq]

Funny how people are talking about Demoulin as if he's been in the situation before. HE WILL BE DROPPED in the next coulple of days. He might get a podium place, although beware of Nairito!

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

but honestly I think the fight will be between Purito and Aru.

I would like to see that fight but I doubt it. Purito will loose time on aru in the ITT and I doubt he will be able to gain enough time on the next two days. Moreover he isnt that good for downhill finishes, especially downhill finishes like stage 20 where we have a flat section before the descent.

He is very good descender. One of the best out there. In particular when it comes to technical or wet descents.

In his two Lombardia victories, he increased his lead downhill. Don't know much about the post-TT downhill stages, but I'd that's a good opportunity for him to attack.

And the more rain, hail, fog, cold and snow. The better his chances is.

I'd love to see Purito and Aru battling it out on the stages after the TT. But they need a lot more time on Dumoulin. I hope they will attack earlier than they did yesterday.

 

[damian13ster]

Dumoulin riding very smart, Aru isnt.
Tom can win this Vuelta. He will drop 20-30s on each climb, maybe a 1:00 on stage 16, and it will be decided by seconds in the TT. Unless of course Aru cracks which I think is possible

 

[Jspear]

Funny how people are talking about Demoulin as if he's been in the situation before. HE WILL BE DROPPED in the next coulple of days. He might get a podium place, although beware of Nairito!

That's just it. Some were saying "HE WILL BE DROPPED" earlier in the race and it didn't happen. He's never done this before....perhaps he won't drop big time. No one really knows.

 

[staubsauger]

I've gotten a clue about it since Wednesday. Now it's all gone again.

It can be Aru, Dumoulin, Purito or even Majka and Quintana.

The Vuelta is pure entertainment once again.

 

[SergeDeM]

No idea. Aru looks a bit better but we all know he can crack anytime.
Dumoulin is still an unknown quantity and it's fun to see how far he can go.
Rodriguez is surprising. I didn't expect him to be up there, and TBH I still think that even if he's strong enough, he'll find a way to blow it.
Majka, Chaves and Nieve are fun additions but not winning material.
Quintana is the wildcard. If Aru cracks, which is possible, he's good enough to claw those minutes back.
Nobody else is a factor.

So to me it's between Aru, Dumoulin and Quintana.

 

[Gigs_98]

Funny how people are talking about Demoulin as if he's been in the situation before. HE WILL BE DROPPED in the next coulple of days. He might get a podium place, although beware of Nairito!

Nonsense. Every gc contender is in this position for the first time once in his career and if everybody drops when he is in this situation for the first time its hard to explain why there are riders who won the first gt in which they competed for the win. Of course its possible that he will loose a lot of time today or tomorrow, but saying that he has no chance to win is simply stupid

 

[Djoop]

Deleted post

 

[IndianCyclist]

Looks like Aru, Purito, Dumoulin unless Quintana comes up with a superb performance.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Hard to see Quintana turning this around. He'll need to take atleast 4 and a half minute on Dumoulin and 3 minutes on Aru. That's nearly impossible. For now, it's a heads up duel between Dumoulin and Aru with the latter having a big advantage. Interestingly, I think that Dumoulin is more likely to win than Rodriguez, but Rodriguez is more likely to top 3 than Dumoulin.

 

[Red Rick]

No I think it's whomever hangs on to Quintana the longest between Aru and Purito

 

[skidmark]

After today... phew! Hard to read the tea-leaves in such a close stage, but I would maybe put Aru down 5% and put Quintana at 5-10% (with 'rest of the field' maybe going down to 5%). This could shake out in a number of interesting ways. First, with two steeper finishes to go in the next few days, it doesn't look good for Dumoulin that he lost a bit of time today, because one would think he'd stand to lose more on the next two stages. On the other hand, Purito looked strong(ish), and my prediction about him handling fatigue might come into play. Compare his ride on the stage Dumoulin won, where he waited and didn't make any moves, and then when he tried to come around Froome he just didn't have it. Then, stage 11, he's better than anyone but Aru (and Moreno) but has all the trouble he can find just following Moreno. Today, he closed on Aru after being gapped, put time into Valverde and Dumoulin, and briefly got away on some 9% stuff and was strong enough to hold everyone off by a second or a few. If he felt the same tomorrow and the next day on steeper stuff that's more his terrain (the 'gain 20-30 seconds in the last 1.5km' sort of climbs) then he's got a real shot. It's hard to get a real reference point given Aru's relatively short pro career, but I'd put him quite close to the (post-2012) Rodriguez in terms of flat TTs of this length... maybe I'd give him the edge because his skills are still developing, but it wouldn't surprise me to see these guys within 30 seconds of each other either way. If Purito is really close to Aru, or ahead of him, going into the TT, he could possibly have the lead after it.

Well, phase 1 of that plan is complete - attacked with 1.5k left, got 20-30 seconds over main rivals when bonuses are factored in. Tomorrow is a different stage, much tougher with more climbing. Purito responded less well than Aru on stage 11, but like I said, Aru's fatigue curve has to be going down more steeply than Purito's, given his relative freshness coming in. And it's a hella-steep finish. I wouldn't be shocked if Purito gains half a minute, he is definitely looking stronger. Dumoulin is just gonna pop. After today's ride, he looks like he can ride within himself and if that's the case, he could lose less than a minute. But I dunno, he looks like he's flagging, so it's entirely possible that tomorrow could be the day where he loses five.

I think for Quintana to have a shot, he had to gain time instead of lose it today. I'd put him back down at a negligible chance of winning. But hey, all he needs is one long range attack to work and he could get a couple of minutes... although today his 'early attack' really just stretched the group for 500m and that was it. It actually seems to me a more realistic scenario for him to catch up a bit in the TT and then go on the attack on one of the following stages, that are less steep and have a descent before the finish. But yeah, after today it's looking to me something like: Aru 50%, Purito 25%, Dumoulin 15%, Majka/Quintana/other 10%