Who wins the Tour 2017?

[klintE]

Re:

Mollema with a crazy long range attack, you can bet your house on that!

I could bet my kidney on that!

 

[railxmig]

Re: Re:

Pinot is not fresher, for sure. And FDJ's lineup should be all for Demare, Vichot helping Nono on the flat, getting carte blanche elsewhere. Pinot may have only Bonnet to lead him through the flat stages. No Morabito, no Mollard, no Reichenbach.

Still, the bait looked too yummy and I voted Tibopino .

It was tougher a Giro than Quintana would have liked, I believe that he will pay the price. He won't win, maybe not even podium. If he fades early on, Valverde becomes a very interesting option.

Compared to the rest of his season Valverde was pretty bad(?) in Dauphine. But then there's this TT he did, but afaik he always had sizeable flunctuations in TT. I guess he'll win one stage in Tour and then go for the GC in Vuelta. Will there be any of these young Colombians that are in Movistar? Maybe they'll go stage hunting/polka dot or maybe even fight for white.

I think Pinot may try to go for the polka dot rather than bother with GC. In GC he will do a top 10 but that's all, while i think he has a nice shot at polka dot. Also, if Demare won't deliver then he should be the biggest chance for FDJ to win a stage. I wonder if Latour will be allowed to also go for it. I doubt that he will have a chance of winning without giving all in and it would be nice for him to have Latour up the road if there was a necessity for such actions. I'm also not sure, what Rolland is thinking as he displayed a quite good form up Gavarnie, and afair in Giro he only pushed hard in like two stages.

 

[Jancouver]

1. Chaves
2. Aru
3. Valverde

Porte & Bert will not podium for obvious reasons and Froome will get busted for motor-doping. Ha!

 

[Jspear]

Re:

1. Chaves
2. Aru
3. Valverde

Porte & Bert will not podium for obvious reasons and Froome will get busted for motor-doping. Ha!

I wouldn't mind this.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Froome is the obvious favourite and will be the one they all have to beat. Quintana for a change has little expectation on him which might well suit him and I think he is the main danger. Porte is the rider with the best form but I don't think he has the temperament to see out the 3 weeks without suffering at some point and his team is not as strong as Sky/Movistar. I'll go for:

1) Froome
2) Quintana
3) Porte

Would be amazed if anyone but those 3 were to win it.

Contador is finished as a GC rider and I'd prefer to see him hunting stages at this point in his career. Also don't know what Dan Martin is doing on the list in the poll, absolutely no chance of winning GC he is another rider better suited to stage hunting.

I think the winner comes from those three and I think maybe in that order. I just can't see Contador beating Froome and Quintana anymore. As for Porte there is less certainty about him. A Porte win would be a shake up like Dumoulin's win at the Giro but he will have to be at his best over three weeks to beat Froome without any incidents or careless time losses. Valverde had a great start to the season but I don't think it will go the same way in the Tour. Might be in the running for third place along with Contador. It all depends on the role he plays for Movistar and how well Quintana goes, after the Giro. I have the same doubts about Bardet that i have about Porte but he has to be a chance for third.

But for me the overall is a three way race unless crashes or illness have an impact. I think Chaves or Yates could round out the top 6. The Astana riders could figure also in the top 5, it's hard to say with Fuglsang and Aru. If Contador and the Orica riders struggle the Astana riders could finish closer to the podium. I have always seen Fuglsang as a top five at best or top 10 rider but he has been in career best form recently but I still think the three weeks will test him. Aru will drop more time in the TTs but will have to climb at his best to make the podium, maybe top five. Froome will improve after the Dauphine where he looked under done fitness wise and he was riding better towards the end of the race than he was at the beginning.

 

[klintE]

General thought:
with Quintana trying something that he is'n ready
with Froome having not the best shape currently
with Porte having lack of killer instinct
with always dangerous Pistolero
with unpredictable Balverde, mysterious Chavez and developing Aru,
this year TdF could be very levelized and fascinating
Only problem is that *** shitty course.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

General thought:
with Quintana trying something that he is'n ready
with Froome having not the best shape currently
with Porte having lack of killer instinct
with always dangerous Pistolero
with unpredictable Balverde, mysterious Chavez and developing Aru,
this year TdF could be very levelized and fascinating
Only problem is that **** ****** course.

I agree. I think we are coming to the end of the Bore de France era

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

General thought:
with Quintana trying something that he is'n ready
with Froome having not the best shape currently
with Porte having lack of killer instinct
with always dangerous Pistolero
with unpredictable Balverde, mysterious Chavez and developing Aru,
this year TdF could be very levelized and fascinating
Only problem is that **** ****** course.

I agree. I think we are coming to the end of the Bore de France era

That usually just means a couple of years of interregnum before a new king of predictable victory is established.

 

[portugal11]

Gotta love those people who thinks froome is regressing. He will destroy le tour (again) mark my words

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

General thought:
with Quintana trying something that he is'n ready
with Froome having not the best shape currently
with Porte having lack of killer instinct
with always dangerous Pistolero
with unpredictable Balverde, mysterious Chavez and developing Aru,
this year TdF could be very levelized and fascinating
Only problem is that **** ****** course.

Yes, but what is causing the root cause of non-fascinating tours (ie the Sky train) to derail?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Contador to show he has been sandbagging all year and dominate.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Contador to show he has been sandbagging all year and dominate.

That's what many of us are hoping!

SANDbagging = BEACH

 

[gunara]

Re:

Gotta love those people who thinks froome is regressing. He will destroy le tour (again) mark my words

I still think this is the most sensible prediction.
Followed by Porte to finally deliver when it matters.
And Quintana saving much in the Giro.
Plus the realization that the only era that's truly over is Contador era.
All those scary stuffs for a me as a Berto's fan

 

[Pennino]

Re: Re:

Gotta love those people who thinks froome is regressing. He will destroy le tour (again) mark my words

I still think this is the most sensible prediction.
Followed by Porte to finally deliver when it matters.
And Quintana saving much in the Giro.
Plus the realization that the only era that's truly over is Contador era.
All those scary stuffs for a me as a Berto's fan

I still refuse to believe that. When you look at his spring this year, it's just absolutely decent. That idiotic first stage in P-N could have happened to anybody. He had to mark the others on Couillole so he just let Porte do his thing, Catalunya and Itzulia both did have terrible routes for him and Ruta del Sol had it's terrain that matters immediately on his very first days of racing. And still he got second on every GC. That's almost laughable. Almost an insult to the rest of the competitors.

I'm not saying he's going to dominate or something silly. But I simply refuse to believe he could not be up there still when it matters in July. And when he's up there...

 

[DBotero]

1.Porte 2.Froome 3.Valverde

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Gotta love those people who thinks froome is regressing. He will destroy le tour (again) mark my words

I still think this is the most sensible prediction.
Followed by Porte to finally deliver when it matters.
And Quintana saving much in the Giro.
Plus the realization that the only era that's truly over is Contador era.
All those scary stuffs for a me as a Berto's fan

I still refuse to believe that. When you look at his spring this year, it's just absolutely decent. That idiotic first stage in P-N could have happened to anybody. He had to mark the others on Couillole so he just let Porte do his thing, Catalunya and Itzulia both did have terrible routes for him and Ruta del Sol had it's terrain that matters immediately on his very first days of racing. And still he got second on every GC. That's almost laughable. Almost an insult to the rest of the competitors.

I'm not saying he's going to dominate or something silly. But I simply refuse to believe he could not be up there still when it matters in July. And when he's up there...

It's been 8 years since he's been at the podium of the Tour.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Bertie on the podium would be a hell of a result for him imo. Even top 5 would be good.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Bertie on the podium would be a hell of a result for him imo. Even top 5 would be good.

Top 5 wouldn't be good. Stage win and a podium or overall win would be the only good results.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Contador to show he has been sandbagging all year and dominate.

Who thinks he has been sandbagging all year?

 

[WildspokeJoe]

Every year there is a list of 7 to 10 riders 'who can win the Tour' but in the end, it's really only 2 or 3. Although it's super hard to bet against Froome and his stout SKY team, I selected Porte.

He's had an excellent lead up to the Tour with his only misstep being not winning the Dauphine outright. Porte knows what it takes to win and he's hungry. His team is as strong as Froome's and they are 100% riding for him.

I would put Quintana as a contender as well but I think the Giro was extra hard this year and his Movistar team will split their efforts behind him and Valverde. Contador's time has come and gone. A stage win would be a nice parting gift.

Both Bardet and Pinot will finish in the top 10 but 32 years and counting no French winner. How can you not love Chaves and his positive attitude but the Tour is a different animal. Maybe in the future but not this year. Dan Martin's team will be looking for stage wins early so his team is not 100% behind him. Maybe a top 6.

1. Porte
2. Froome
3. Majka

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Bertie on the podium would be a hell of a result for him imo. Even top 5 would be good.

Top 5 wouldn't be good. Stage win and a podium or overall win would be the only good results.

IMO of course. I haven't seen enough to think he can make the podium. That would mean knocking off one of the big 3 and that seems extremely unlikely.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Bertie on the podium would be a hell of a result for him imo. Even top 5 would be good.

Top 5 wouldn't be good. Stage win and a podium or overall win would be the only good results.

IMO of course. I haven't seen enough to think he can make the podium. That would mean knocking off one of the big 3 and that seems extremely unlikely.

Completely agree with this. At his age and with his record in the Tour over the last few years, finishing top 5 with some memorable attacks and maybe even a rare stage win, would be a very solid result.

Finishing on the lower steps of the podium would almost be impressive as the wins he got in the pre-ban era, when it all came so easily to him and the competition was weak.

 

[DanielSong39]

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

 

[Singer01]

Re:

Every year there is a list of 7 to 10 riders 'who can win the Tour' but in the end, it's really only 2 or 3. Although it's super hard to bet against Froome and his stout SKY team, I selected Porte.

He's had an excellent lead up to the Tour with his only misstep being not winning the Dauphine outright. Porte knows what it takes to win and he's hungry. His team is as strong as Froome's and they are 100% riding for him.

Eh? are you having a laugh?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

So basically, the expectation is that Contador will perform similarly to what he did in the 2016 Vuelta and 2011 Tour. Fair enough.

I just hope he can avoid crashes.

Yep, surely he has to avoid crashes this year. His positioning is a worry and handling not so good these days, but the law of averages suggests he should get through this one unscathed. Just hope it doesn't play on his mind too much and he ends up riding overly cautiously or tensed up.

I think the expectation is not so much 2011 Tour and 2016 Vuelta, more just that he performs to a similar level as he has done in most stage races in the last 2 years or so. Which, with few exceptions, is at least one level below Porte, Quintana, Valverde and Froome. In which case he should be fighting the likes of Bardet, Aru and maybe Chaves/Yates for a top 5 place.