I just keep wondering how much chance does he have of finishing TdF on the podium. Why should we consider riders like Nibali out of his reach?
I think Talansky would be treated much more seriously now had he been in his top shape all throughout the TdF last year. For some reason (I know he was ill just before and in early Dauphine and that disrupted his preparation to some extent, but I'm not sure if this is 100% answer), he seemed to be well out of his top shape for the first two weeks, but in the last couple of days he was on Kreuziger's level, beating Mollema every single stage and on the last mountain stage he even beat Contador. So top5 could be a possibility last year had he reached his peak 1.5 weeks earlier.
Then people would realise it's not far from top5 to top3 and that Talansky is a serious contender.
Nonetheless, he proved he recovers really well in 3rd week in both TdF2013 and Vuelta2012 so that bodes well for his GC attemp. If he can only avoid loses on flat stages and on cobbles.
I'm also very curious how will his team perform. I'm 95% sure there will be Millar, Navardauskas and Langeveld to support him on the flat. But in mountain things get more sophisticated.
Hesjedal is supposed not to be there. It's a shame because I feel he is more versatile (can survive fairly well both big climbs and hilly, Ardennes-like stages, then do a lot of good work on the descent or flat) than any of riders that are gonna be there. Well, it wouldn't shock me at all if Vaughters decides to change his mind last-minute and send Hesjedal to the France, just like he unexpectedly brought Danielson to Giro last year. I think it was mistake from the very beginning that Hesjedal targetted Giro this year. TdF with that cobbled stage (he did very well on the simillar one in 2010) could suit him more.
There have also been some speculation than Dan Martin would be there if he recovers but I don't think it's likely scenario either.
So who's left?
- Slagter- great season but unproven in big mountain.
- Dennis- good showing in California but can he climb with the very best day after day?
- Acevedo- good climber but unproven on a WT level.
- Danielson- proven rider but is getting older and older. California was an indication that he might be not that good as he used to anymore, because he always did well in this race in previous years.
- Howes- seemed to be doing good job at protecting Talansky at Dauphine to a some point (lost only 3 minutes to Froome on stage 2 and didn't get dropped from main group on stages 3 and 6), then completely disappeared (nowhere to be seen on the last 2 stages). It suggest he can climb but his recovery is fairly (I don't mean Caleb

) poor.
So all in all, it's all uncertain. This has the potential to turn out as a really good team, but each of those riders might turn out not to be good enough in big mountain ATM to be a serious help. Most of these guys are in the Switzerland right now so I will be looking forward to see how they do.