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Reckon Hamilton was stronger on the Mortirolo than Yates - Still an outside chance yates can snare a stage and finish 5th in GC.
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But its not unrealistic at all that he never reaches the level he had the first two weeks in the Giro at all..
Reckon its mostly a case of mistiming the shape a bit considering he also won La Vuelta.Dekker_Tifosi said:
But its not unrealistic at all that he never reaches the level he had the first two weeks in the Giro at all..
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His vuelta shape was good but not that great. He got dropped by guys like Mas numerous times and his advantage mostly formed because nobody else had a consistently good shape. All of valverde, Mas, Lopez and Quintana had days where they were stronger than Yates without Yates actually having a proper off day. (And really those names aren't even that scary) However all those guys had mediocre to bad days too so they couldn't really profit. Moreover the route really suited him. There was basically one proper mountain stage raced hard before the final climb already and I'd argue his performance there was pretty much in line with what he has shown in this years giroValv.Piti said:
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What numerous times? He was dropped by Mas once, in the last stage, where he already secured the overall. He was superb in the Vuelta, much wiser than in the Giro, but in great shape also. Had he attacked like a madman, like he did in Giro, he wouldn't had won, I assure you.
Gigs_98 said:
What numerous times? He was dropped by Mas once, in the last stage, where he already secured the overall. He was superb in the Vuelta, much wiser than in the Giro, but in great shape also. Had he attacked like a madman, like he did in Giro, he wouldn't had won, I assure you.
I'm on the fence here. On one hand, Simon's '18 season convinced me that he had gone to the next level, from a top-5 hopeful to the top of the food chain. And now t's almost like I see the old Simon, the one that he was before he became the new Simon.
I don't believe the bad prep talks, because he had two great preps in a row last year. We see '19 Adam becoming a new Adam. Prep is not an issue, on the contrary. That prep talk doesn't cut the mustard.
One would wonder if he got worse or if the others got better. Like the best Nibali since the '14 TdF. The route isn't perfect for him, but it can't explain that drop in GC relevance.
The brash comments before the race maybe show a "I made it" attitude, maybe he got cocky, maybe lazy in the off-season, maybe he thought he was the sh*t.
Weird. That's not the '18 Simon. Things don't add up.
I don't believe the bad prep talks, because he had two great preps in a row last year. We see '19 Adam becoming a new Adam. Prep is not an issue, on the contrary. That prep talk doesn't cut the mustard.
One would wonder if he got worse or if the others got better. Like the best Nibali since the '14 TdF. The route isn't perfect for him, but it can't explain that drop in GC relevance.
The brash comments before the race maybe show a "I made it" attitude, maybe he got cocky, maybe lazy in the off-season, maybe he thought he was the sh*t.
Weird. That's not the '18 Simon. Things don't add up.
Tonton said:
I think this is generally referred to as 'regression to the mean'...it's likely that last year's Giro was an outstanding level of performance that won't be consistently reached again, and that his slightly lesser (but wiser) level in the Vuelta and this year's Giro is closer to his average or 'normal' level...
Of course, that doesn't mean he's not a contender or a threat for Grand Tours - every GT contender has exactly the same issue, and Simon isn't that far away from the top even here - he's just missing those couple of percentage points that would allow him to be competitive aginst Carapaz/Nibali etc, and he's still riding to a solid top-10...
I'm not ready to write him off the top tier yet.
I remember Nibali after his breakout in 2010 had an unspectacular 2011 (yes, I know he podiumed the Giro but the field was kinda weak and he was like 8 minutes behind Contador).
Evans struggled in 2003 and partly in 2004 after being a revelation in 2002.
A rider's progression might stall for a number of reasons. He could still be figuring out what the best training regimen for him is. Or perhaps he's not 100% healthy. These guys are no robots.
What I've seen in last year's Vuelta is top GC riding stuff: not only great climbing and acceptable TTing but also a flawless effort management paired with smart tactics.
In my opinion he'll bounce back. But I can't rule out him never coming close to winning a GT again. Wouldn't be the first time for a Mitchelton rider actually.
I remember Nibali after his breakout in 2010 had an unspectacular 2011 (yes, I know he podiumed the Giro but the field was kinda weak and he was like 8 minutes behind Contador).
Evans struggled in 2003 and partly in 2004 after being a revelation in 2002.
A rider's progression might stall for a number of reasons. He could still be figuring out what the best training regimen for him is. Or perhaps he's not 100% healthy. These guys are no robots.
What I've seen in last year's Vuelta is top GC riding stuff: not only great climbing and acceptable TTing but also a flawless effort management paired with smart tactics.
In my opinion he'll bounce back. But I can't rule out him never coming close to winning a GT again. Wouldn't be the first time for a Mitchelton rider actually.
Who's who?
And yet when he won that stage at Catalunya, everyone still thought he was Simon.
Lequack said:
And yet when he won that stage at Catalunya, everyone still thought he was Simon.
Davesta said:
IMO he's still a Top 5 "non TdF" contender -- he's showed a few times that he can ride away from just about anyone, but I really do think something went awry in his training. That was clear from the second ITT.
(I don't think he can win the TdF so long as Sky and Dumoulin are there, but Vuelta and Giro offer opportunities for less well rounded riders and teams)
I was pretty impressed by the Vuelta, and to the point above that he only managed to avoid bad days -- isn't that sort of the point with a GT if you're a serious contender? In other words, if you have 5 riders who have a legitimate shot at winning, whoever avoids mistakes will win? Of course that theory doesn't include outliers like Carapaz but he does have a Top 5 GT finish.
I like the attacking Yates in any event.
Mitchelton has stuffed up three of the last four GC's - Massive pressure is heaped on the head of A.Yates - On exposed form a top 5 is a distinct possibility.
What's most disappointed me isn't his form, it can happen that you go into a race and misjudge it completely (even though he was awesome on the first stage), but the way he's raced since it became clear that he wasn't fighting for a top place anymore. He's never gone for a breakaway or a stage win like mollema or zakarin, but sort of plugged away in 10th or 9th or 8th place, which compared to last year's fearless attacking is quite disappointing. I don't understand the reasoning behind it either, as surely a stage win would've been better than 8th place? The stage to antholz looked excellent for him.
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First, Yates wasn't going well enough to win a stage, second GC guys would not allow him into a break and finally if not for Hamilton's assistance he would have come 12th to 15th in the GC.
Brullnux said:
First, Yates wasn't going well enough to win a stage, second GC guys would not allow him into a break and finally if not for Hamilton's assistance he would have come 12th to 15th in the GC.
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You're really telling me he wasn't going well enough to beat Chaves or Nans Peters? The stage to ponte di legno should've been the turning point for yates: ease up, lose another four minutes or so, end up ten or more minutes behind and go for a stage, rather than chasing back endlessly for absolutely nothing. Formolo was getting into a lot of breaks and he was only three or four minutes behind Yates. Don't see how Hamilton comes in here, as his support is what I was getting at when I said that he was plugging away. To my eyes, he could still climb better than Formolo or Pello Bilbao or Vendrame. It was a poor approach from orica to go full zubeldia this giro. Chaves' stage win saved them big time
yaco said:
You're really telling me he wasn't going well enough to beat Chaves or Nans Peters? The stage to ponte di legno should've been the turning point for yates: ease up, lose another four minutes or so, end up ten or more minutes behind and go for a stage, rather than chasing back endlessly for absolutely nothing. Formolo was getting into a lot of breaks and he was only three or four minutes behind Yates. Don't see how Hamilton comes in here, as his support is what I was getting at when I said that he was plugging away. To my eyes, he could still climb better than Formolo or Pello Bilbao or Vendrame. It was a poor approach from orica to go full zubeldia this giro. Chaves' stage win saved them big time
Back to the drawing board for him and look at what went wrong. His performance is unreliable considering the last 2 Giros.
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You don't seem to understand that Hamilton a 2nd year pro riding his first GT carried Yates on his back for the last of the Giro - Hamilton was more likely to win a stage from a break than Yates - And even if Yates dropped another few minutes he still wouldn't be allowed into a break.
Brullnux said:
You don't seem to understand that Hamilton a 2nd year pro riding his first GT carried Yates on his back for the last of the Giro - Hamilton was more likely to win a stage from a break than Yates - And even if Yates dropped another few minutes he still wouldn't be allowed into a break.
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Its a wider issue - MS have stuffed up 3 of the last 4 GT's - Enormous pressure will be on A.Yates to get a top 5 in the TDF which is about his level on exposed form.
IndianCyclist said:
Its a wider issue - MS have stuffed up 3 of the last 4 GT's - Enormous pressure will be on A.Yates to get a top 5 in the TDF which is about his level on exposed form.
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How good was Chaves? It's nice and all that he won a grand tour stage, but he finished ten seconds ahead of vendrame, a sprinter who had a mechanical, on a mtf; nans peters is not a better climber than yates, even in this shape. He could have at least tried is my point, and if it didn't work out then fine. But 8th even give him? Pretty much nothing. Surely a crack at breaks, kom, stage wins would have been better.
Would the gc guys really not let yates 10+ minutes behind in sub par shape into the break? I highly doubt it. The only two times he ever tried something at all he was let go.
yaco said:
How good was Chaves? It's nice and all that he won a grand tour stage, but he finished ten seconds ahead of vendrame, a sprinter who had a mechanical, on a mtf; nans peters is not a better climber than yates, even in this shape. He could have at least tried is my point, and if it didn't work out then fine. But 8th even give him? Pretty much nothing. Surely a crack at breaks, kom, stage wins would have been better.
Would the gc guys really not let yates 10+ minutes behind in sub par shape into the break? I highly doubt it. The only two times he ever tried something at all he was let go.
MS said very clearly they had put in too much work as a team towards the GC to just give up, and that they would ride as best they could to gain GT experience. For Yates to be let off in a break after his ‘18 season he would probably need to be at least 20 minutes behind, and that would amount to giving up.
I feel like regression to the mean is probably likely, it shocked me last year to see a top 10 guy who was usually amongst the first “favorites” in GC to be shed on the climbs suddenly attacking everyone and taking chunks of time at every opportunity. He looked so different I had a hard time wrapping my head around it. It wasn’t as if he had progressed to that point linearly either. Maybe he just got everything perfect and is now back to baseline. Who knows, we’ll see in the Vuelta I suppose.
I feel like regression to the mean is probably likely, it shocked me last year to see a top 10 guy who was usually amongst the first “favorites” in GC to be shed on the climbs suddenly attacking everyone and taking chunks of time at every opportunity. He looked so different I had a hard time wrapping my head around it. It wasn’t as if he had progressed to that point linearly either. Maybe he just got everything perfect and is now back to baseline. Who knows, we’ll see in the Vuelta I suppose.
It just didnt pan out this time. Others were better. It is not easy winning or podium every GT you line up for. Even as a winner of one and being one of the favorites pre-race.
If he performs in the Vuelta its all good or it will just count as a mediocre season and he could bounce back next year.
If he performs in the Vuelta its all good or it will just count as a mediocre season and he could bounce back next year.
I think another thing to take into consideration is he already won 3 stages last year so what is 1 more going to achieve? Better to try and get a decent place on GC (that he hasn't actually got in the Giro yet) that he can then improve on with better form.
Something went wrong in his prep. Hopefully he works out what that was and can rectify so he is able to get his maximum performance in the big races in the future while he is still in his peak years. He's only 26. Plenty of time no need to panic.
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