Cancellara Thread

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

Boonen didn't let canc go in 2010 in the same manner as Canc did today. 2 completely different situations and the fault is way bigger in one than in the other.

I don't agree with him being smart in RVV 2014. Any person with half a brain would never close that gap since canc will always close that gap, always. Canc counted on vanmarcke being an idiot, i guess you can give him credit for that but i think it was a bad move from him regardless.

It's not because the move worked out that it can't be stupid.

with your ability to be critical, probably anyone but winner always f**ked up.

Instead of using ad hominem, just argue my points.

Don't you think that any rider should know (especially when you're not at his level of prestige, if it's boonen for example then canc might not close it), that when you're alone with canc and someone just went off, he'll close the gap no matter what? Isn't that a reasonable thing to assume?

Canc decided to gamble on vanmarcke not knowing that. You think that was a smart move from Canc? Just cause it worked out, and then calling it smart is pretty silly no?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

Boonen didn't let canc go in 2010 in the same manner as Canc did today. 2 completely different situations and the fault is way bigger in one than in the other.

I don't agree with him being smart in RVV 2014. Any person with half a brain would never close that gap since canc will always close that gap, always. Canc counted on vanmarcke being an idiot, i guess you can give him credit for that but i think it was a bad move from him regardless.

It's not because the move worked out that it can't be stupid.

with your ability to be critical, probably anyone but winner always f**ked up.

Instead of using ad hominem, just argue my points.

Don't you think that any rider should know (especially when you're not at his level of prestige, if it's boonen for example then canc might not close it), that when you're alone with canc and someone just went off, he'll close the gap no matter what? Isn't that a reasonable thing to assume?

Canc decided to gamble on vanmarcke not knowing that. You think that was a smart move from Canc? Just cause it worked out, and then calling it smart is pretty silly no?

 

[hrotha]

Re:

It's not because the move worked out that it can't be stupid.

This needs to be emphasized because most people insist on judging only in light of the outcome.

As if Churchill and Stalin had died of a heart attack in 1940-1941 and suddenly Germany's starting WW2 was a brilliant idea instead of the doomed endeavour we know it to have been.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

I think Cance would have rode away from everyone on the Kwaremont had it been all together. He should never have let them go, and I think he won't repeat that mistake at PR. Barring any unfortunate events he should be favorite for PR.

That doesn't count for much. Sagan worked much more to stay away, worked more from further out, put time on Fabian on the Patenberg and the flat.

Fab would've been dropped like a stone. That was Sagan's RVV.

I wouldn't be so certain he would have easily dropped Fabian. Sagan just raced better, and deservedly won the race.

You are being way too generous on Pedro here Peter was 2sec slower than Fabian up Paterberg and had shared the work with Vanmarcke leading up to the climb.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Boonen didn't let canc go in 2010 in the same manner as Canc did today. 2 completely different situations and the fault is way bigger in one than in the other.

I don't agree with him being smart in RVV 2014. Any person with half a brain would never close that gap since canc will always close that gap, always. Canc counted on vanmarcke being an idiot, i guess you can give him credit for that but i think it was a bad move from him regardless.

It's not because the move worked out that it can't be stupid.

Any person with half a brain would rather close down a gap for a shot at victory in a monument if they can easily, rather than relying on a rider who has done a s***load of work already and may be struggling. Canc knew Vanmarcke was strong enough and fitted into the aforementioned category. And when he sat up in 2014, he definitely looked like he was cooked.

And please explain the difference to me. Ok, it was about 50km out instead of 30 with Boonen v Canc, but Canc was clearly the main man Boonen had to stick to. But he let him go in a similar fashion.

 

[hrotha]

Hey, Godwin's Law doesn't apply! Them wacky Nazis weren't mentioned at all and no ethical comparison was drawn!

It's just it was a monumentally bad idea that could still have worked if Germany had been massively lucky.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Boonen didn't let canc go in 2010 in the same manner as Canc did today. 2 completely different situations and the fault is way bigger in one than in the other.

I don't agree with him being smart in RVV 2014. Any person with half a brain would never close that gap since canc will always close that gap, always. Canc counted on vanmarcke being an idiot, i guess you can give him credit for that but i think it was a bad move from him regardless.

It's not because the move worked out that it can't be stupid.

with your ability to be critical, probably anyone but winner always f**ked up.

Instead of using ad hominem, just argue my points.

Don't you think that any rider should know (especially when you're not at his level of prestige, if it's boonen for example then canc might not close it), that when you're alone with canc and someone just went off, he'll close the gap no matter what? Isn't that a reasonable thing to assume?

Canc decided to gamble on vanmarcke not knowing that. You think that was a smart move from Canc? Just cause it worked out, and then calling it smart is pretty silly no?

Costly assumption to make if it turns out to be wrong. Too risky to make the assumption if you're there in the final of a monument with a real shot at winning

 

[pedromiguelmartins]

Re: Re:

I think Cance would have rode away from everyone on the Kwaremont had it been all together. He should never have let them go, and I think he won't repeat that mistake at PR. Barring any unfortunate events he should be favorite for PR.

That doesn't count for much. Sagan worked much more to stay away, worked more from further out, put time on Fabian on the Patenberg and the flat.

Fab would've been dropped like a stone. That was Sagan's RVV.

I wouldn't be so certain he would have easily dropped Fabian. Sagan just raced better, and deservedly won the race.

You are being way too generous on Pedro here Peter was 2sec slower than Fabian up Paterberg and had shared the work with Vanmarcke leading up to the climb.

No need to be generous, friend. Sagan did 80% of the work while Fabian decided to sit and relax behind Astana+Katusha+Devolder.

As you can see in the latest highlights by CyclingTips' youtube channel, Fabian was allowed to be 5s away from Sagan at the Oude Kwaremont. At that point he lost 13s to Sagan.

Then, on the Patenberg, Sagan was taking it easy, before Fabian came close again, and Peter exploded the pace and left them all, there, gaining massive distance on Fabian. Then we know what happened on the flat.

Don't be a fanboy and be a bit smarter (as when you be) and stop comparing times with past editions. This race was so much harder, the Parcours so different. Peter would bury Fabian anyway. Not only that, he actually did and won the race.

 

[Miburo]

Boonen was in the back of the group. Canc was right there and decided to not follow. Boonen never had such a decision to make, canc did.

Boonen immediately went forward and chased him down on the next cobbles section, big difference isn't it my friend?

 

[Savant12]

I'm a big Cancellara fan but even I need to admit that Sagan was the strongest rider on the day. Even if Canc followed the earlier move by Sagan, I still think that Sagan could have still outshone him on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg.

I'm still hoping that Cancellara can win another PR.

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Re: Re:

You are being way too generous on Pedro here Peter was 2sec slower than Fabian up Paterberg and had shared the work with Vanmarcke leading up to the climb.

It was the other way round actually.

 

[Alexandre B.]

The Moment When The Race Was Lost

 

[VanBsr]

You can't compare what Boonen did in 2010 with what Fabian did yesterday. Boonen had no chance to recover that difference and from the moment when Fabian attacked the race was over. Yesterday Fabian had a lot of time to react and for like 3 minutes the difference between the 2 groups was easy to rebuild for a man like Cancellara/
I think he was too focused to make an attack on Kwaremont and also I am afraid that he wanted to play some games with etixx one last time in the classics.

But to say that he would have been dropped like a stone or that he has small brain it's a bit exaggerated. Don't forget its poker game in PR 2013.

 

[barmaher]

I know they have had a bad season, but PR is set up beautifully for Etixx.

Cancellara and Sagan will mark one another. Etixx are deep enough to go for not just a 1-2, but a 1-2-3-4-5 with VDB, Martin, Trentin, Stybar, Boonen and Terpstra.

Domestiques will chase down the first few attacks, but I am not sure if Sagan will ride Cancellara up to Boonen's wheel or vice versa when it comes to the pointy end.

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

I know they have had a bad season, but PR is set up beautifully for Etixx.

Cancellara and Sagan will mark one another. Etixx are deep enough to go for not just a 1-2, but a 1-2-3-4-5 with VDB, Martin, Trentin, Stybar, Boonen and Terpstra.

Domestiques will chase down the first few attacks, but I am not sure if Sagan will ride Cancellara up to Boonen's wheel or vice versa when it comes to the pointy end.

well, with sagan's current luck in anticipation, he will either join the winning move or he will create it 40kms to go, I doubt he will wait till Fabian will shake everybody, besides him, off his wheel. He learnt that much, that he can't catch every attack himself, and he has not the team to do it for him. He will gamble again. Yes gamble(yesterday was a biggie too), same as he has kept gambling since the Omloop. There has been no one race where he didn't gamble on some long range attack.

However, with this form, him can afford the gamble, because with his record this year, everyone not taking the ride with him is gambling too. Not that it's not gamble to go with him.

So after all, it's all about intuition. For Fabian, in P-R, there will be another second, where he will have to decide. The only thing I fear is, that Fabian decides to go with Peter, but they will somehow be outplayed by some of the Ettix guys. They're all better in P-R than in Flanders, although not as strong as Peter and Fabian, it still can be possible, however small the odds are.

But then hey, they're ettix, they will find a way how to loose the race.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Boonen was in the back of the group. Canc was right there and decided to not follow. Boonen never had such a decision to make, canc did.

Boonen immediately went forward and chased him down on the next cobbles section, big difference isn't it my friend?

But at the end of the day he didn't mark the main man he needed to. Simple. Not saying Canc's yesterday wasn't worse, but it was certainly a big mistake by Boonen, who is no bad strategist. Mistakes happen.

And anyway, going back to Canc not being an idiot, managing to escape Boonen when he was clearly strong enough to chase down any of Canc's attack back in 2010 is not exactly what I'd call typical of someone who lacks racing instinct

 

[belane]

Seems to me that Fabian peaked a bit too early, we`ve all seen what he did in Siena, and that was month ago... Peter was apparently aiming for April, and Fab all the time has in mind all that "farewell season"; 4 hours of sleep before RVV, c`mon... still he was second to Sagan only. No use to calculate seconds on Paterberg or Kwaremont, Peter was a monster yesterday, he would have won anyhow. Besides, Fabian is 35 ffs, myself, I`m 36 and if somebody told me to compete with 26 year olds the only thing i`d choose would be chess. Still looking forward to hell of a fight on Sunday.

ps. just registered, big nod to everyone

 

[VanBsr]

Seems to me that Fabian peaked a bit too early, we`ve all seen what he did in Siena, and that was month ago... Peter was apparently aiming for April, and Fab all the time has in mind all that "farewell season"; 4 hours of sleep before RVV, c`mon... still he was second to Sagan only. No use to calculate seconds on Paterberg or Kwaremont, Peter was a monster yesterday, he would have won anyhow. Besides, Fabian is 35 ffs, myself, I`m 36 and if somebody told me to compete with 26 year olds the only thing i`d choose would be chess. Still looking forward to hell of a fight on Sunday.

ps. just registered, big nod to everyone

Welcome!

I don't think he peaked too early. He is peaking for the classics for like 10 years already. I don't think it's a secret for him to getting in shape when he need to. Probably the biggest problem was the lack of sleep

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

No kudos to Sagan, canc just **** up really hard. I mean you've raced for 15 years and you still don't have the instincts to go with that move?

This is kwiat and sagan (2 of the main favorites), thinking fodder teams were gonna close that gap was naive and maybe showed canc didn't feel amazing.

But even then, when vanmarcke went there was no excuse, he should have been there.

Amateur move. And that's been canc's biggest weakness

This is exactly what I already wrote in the RVV thread yesterday. If Cancellara looses after he let Sagan go he will be called stupid and if he wins he will be called genius.
Now that we know hot the race was we know it was a mistake, but as someone wrote earlier he was only freakin 6 seconds behind Sagan on the Kwaremont. 6 seconds, thats basically nothing and nobody can tell me Sagan knew perfectly that he could stay in front because you can't forecast such small gaps. And even after the Paterberg there were only 10 seconds between the two and honestly, at that point I was 100% sure Cancellara would catch Sagan because of their TT ability. Oh and I also think Sagan would have lost a sprint to Cancellara because after such a hard effort Sagan had already put into the race his sprints usually get a lot worse. And you know what, if Cancellara would have won a sprint against Sagan it would be Sagan who would be called stupid, because why should you risk everything although you are in a superb shape and usually the better sprinter.

I think Cancellaras decision to not follow Sagan was fine since he had a teammate left and other riders in the group too. The problem was when Vanmarcke went, but he only had such a short time frame to decide what to do that I can hardly judge him for this, especially since attacking while a teammate is chasing isnt very clever in most cases. At the end his decision turned out to be a mistake but he couldn't have known that at that time.

 

[Oldermanish]

Re:

The Moment When The Race Was Lost

Unfortunately I've only seen "highlights" of the race that include this. I agree completely that Kwiatkowski and Sagan got down to business immediately and probably saved some energy in the process. Inexplicable that someone didn't jump quickly but I'm sure someone must have attempted it. Just didn't see it....

 

[Taxus4a]

I'm a big Cancellara fan but even I need to admit that Sagan was the strongest rider on the day. Even if Canc followed the earlier move by Sagan, I still think that Sagan could have still outshone him on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg.

I'm still hoping that Cancellara can win another PR.

I didnt see that. Sagan could have won on the sprint, but never drop Cancellara, maybe the contrary.

Cancellara dis a mistake, Sagan risk a little and this time was perfect for him.

I didnt watch Sagan doing more work than Kiato, and almost 40 second is too much difference.

 

[pedromiguelmartins]

I'm a big Cancellara fan but even I need to admit that Sagan was the strongest rider on the day. Even if Canc followed the earlier move by Sagan, I still think that Sagan could have still outshone him on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg.

I'm still hoping that Cancellara can win another PR.

I didnt see that. Sagan could have won on the sprint, but never drop Cancellara, maybe the contrary.

Cancellara dis a mistake, Sagan risk a little and this time was perfect for him.

I didnt watch Sagan doing more work than Kiato, and almost 40 second is too much difference.

Of course you didn't, you had the blinders on.

Sagan did by far the biggest part of the work. Fabian was allowed (by sagan) to be just 5s away at the oude kwaremont. Then Peter made the distance go up to 16/17 seconds before the Patenberg.

Remember, while Sagan was charging the group, Fabian was behind Devolder/Katusha/Astana. Not once did he put his beautiful nose in the wind after Sagan attacked (he did for 3 to 4 secs, then gave up). On the patenberg he was close as well, right before Sagan looked back and put the hammer down again, making the difference equal to what it was at the foot of the Patenberg.

We saw what happened after that.

Again, to even think that Sagan wouldn't drop fabs a like a stone takes some cojones. The strongest rider gave us a fantastic performance and won. Great.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I'm a big Cancellara fan but even I need to admit that Sagan was the strongest rider on the day. Even if Canc followed the earlier move by Sagan, I still think that Sagan could have still outshone him on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg.

I'm still hoping that Cancellara can win another PR.

I didnt see that. Sagan could have won on the sprint, but never drop Cancellara, maybe the contrary.

Cancellara dis a mistake, Sagan risk a little and this time was perfect for him.

I didnt watch Sagan doing more work than Kiato, and almost 40 second is too much difference.

Of course you didn't, you had the blinders on.

Sagan did by far the biggest part of the work. Fabian was allowed (by sagan) to be just 5s away at the oude kwaremont. Then Peter made the distance go up to 16/17 seconds before the Patenberg.

Remember, while Sagan was charging the group, Fabian was behind Devolder/Katusha/Astana. Not once did he put his beautiful nose in the wind after Sagan attacked (he did for 3 to 4 secs, then gave up). On the patenberg he was close as well, right before Sagan looked back and put the hammer down again, making the difference equal to what it was at the foot of the Patenberg.

We saw what happened after that.

Again, to even think that Sagan wouldn't drop fabs a like a stone takes some cojones. The strongest rider gave us a fantastic performance and won. Great.

Yeah i cba replying to you after this

 

[Taxus4a]

I'm a big Cancellara fan but even I need to admit that Sagan was the strongest rider on the day. Even if Canc followed the earlier move by Sagan, I still think that Sagan could have still outshone him on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg.

I'm still hoping that Cancellara can win another PR.

I didnt see that. Sagan could have won on the sprint, but never drop Cancellara, maybe the contrary.

Cancellara dis a mistake, Sagan risk a little and this time was perfect for him.

I didnt watch Sagan doing more work than Kiato, and almost 40 second is too much difference.

Of course you didn't, you had the blinders on.

Sagan did by far the biggest part of the work. Fabian was allowed (by sagan) to be just 5s away at the oude kwaremont. Then Peter made the distance go up to 16/17 seconds before the Patenberg.

Remember, while Sagan was charging the group, Fabian was behind Devolder/Katusha/Astana. Not once did he put his beautiful nose in the wind after Sagan attacked (he did for 3 to 4 secs, then gave up). On the patenberg he was close as well, right before Sagan looked back and put the hammer down again, making the difference equal to what it was at the foot of the Patenberg.

We saw what happened after that.

Again, to even think that Sagan wouldn't drop fabs a like a stone takes some cojones. The strongest rider gave us a fantastic performance and won. Great.

I watch the race again. At the begining Kiato worked by far the most, it looked as he worked for Sagan. Cancellara anwers an Etixx attack and latter try to get agan group. He was cloe but he couldnt, later agan group get almost 40 seconds, just evolder working, and later other team as Kathousa and Astana worked, so the difference drop to 20 second at the begining of Oude Kwaremont. So, at that point, agan didnt worked much more than Cancellara, just a little bit more, and Cancellara attack and get 10 econds to agan in Oude Kwaremont. Cancellara couldnt get Sagan, who ha a little help by Vanmarke while cancellara try to cacth alone...but he cant and an mall group catch him, but nobody help.

In Patenberg Cancellara aceletares again, but Sagan at the same time, drop Vanmarckem who was ahaed of him, in the hardest section, Cancellara catch Vanmarcke at the top, but he was tired and he didnt work till some Km later,

I watched Sagan and Cancellara very similar. See again the race, Sagan even has the help of some people of the breakaway

 

[pedromiguelmartins]

I'm a big Cancellara fan but even I need to admit that Sagan was the strongest rider on the day. Even if Canc followed the earlier move by Sagan, I still think that Sagan could have still outshone him on the Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg.

I'm still hoping that Cancellara can win another PR.

I didnt see that. Sagan could have won on the sprint, but never drop Cancellara, maybe the contrary.

Cancellara dis a mistake, Sagan risk a little and this time was perfect for him.

I didnt watch Sagan doing more work than Kiato, and almost 40 second is too much difference.

Of course you didn't, you had the blinders on.

Sagan did by far the biggest part of the work. Fabian was allowed (by sagan) to be just 5s away at the oude kwaremont. Then Peter made the distance go up to 16/17 seconds before the Patenberg.

Remember, while Sagan was charging the group, Fabian was behind Devolder/Katusha/Astana. Not once did he put his beautiful nose in the wind after Sagan attacked (he did for 3 to 4 secs, then gave up). On the patenberg he was close as well, right before Sagan looked back and put the hammer down again, making the difference equal to what it was at the foot of the Patenberg.

We saw what happened after that.

Again, to even think that Sagan wouldn't drop fabs a like a stone takes some cojones. The strongest rider gave us a fantastic performance and won. Great.

I watch the race again. At the begining Kiato worked by far the most, it looked as he worked for Sagan. Cancellara anwers an Etixx attack and latter try to get agan group. He was cloe but he couldnt, later agan group get almost 40 seconds, just evolder working, and later other team as Kathousa and Astana worked, so the difference drop to 20 second at the begining of Oude Kwaremont. So, at that point, agan didnt worked much more than Cancellara, just a little bit more, and Cancellara attack and get 10 econds to agan in Oude Kwaremont. Cancellara couldnt get Sagan, who ha a little help by Vanmarke while cancellara try to cacth alone...but he cant and an mall group catch him, but nobody help.

In Patenberg Cancellara aceletares again, but Sagan at the same time, drop Vanmarckem who was ahaed of him, in the hardest section, Cancellara catch Vanmarcke at the top, but he was tired and he didnt work till some Km later,

I watched Sagan and Cancellara very similar. See again the race, Sagan even has the help of some people of the breakaway

And then Sagan powered away again in the flat, because he was stronger.