JV talks, sort of

[Zinoviev Letter]

I am prepared to wait a long time before i decide who was clean in 2013. I have no expectation that the sport will surprise me anymore in regards to doping.

Please give the false modesty a rest. It's pretty clear that you think you have a good idea who is doping: Anyone who wins a significant race. Probably those who place highly too.

No one seems to be able to answer the simple question, why are clean(supposedly) riders beating dopers?

Look, life is too short to keep explaining an argument to someone who then responds not by engaging with that argument but by ignoring it indefinitely. So this is the last time I'll go around this with you for a while.

Even back in the Wild West days, clean riders existed, managed to keep pro careers, and even on rare occasions managed to win something. Now that dopers can't go nuts in the same way without incurring massive risks, the sustained power being put out by dopers is down. Which means that clean riders have to pass a lower talent threshold just to hold down a contract and also means that they can win more races.

It's not a particularly complex argument. Nor is it an unfalsifiable one. All you have to do is find people going up long climbs at 6.8 or 6.6 w/kg as they used to in Bassons day. If that is again routine then it is again impossible to imagine the clean winning those races.

I'm perfectly willing to listen to objections to the "cleaner cycling" thesis grounded in a different analysis of power outputs etc. But I really don't have the time to argue with people who insist on not understanding the argument they object to.

 

[gooner]

I did hear him on off the ball and Joe fumbled the doping question.

But how does he beat the dopers?

Then you would of heard him say while he thinks it's cleaner than in the past, there will still always be riders who will cross the line in the future.

I'm not surprised then to see he would have an issue with no testing when he's saying that. Yet you say that Dan shouldn't have an issue with the testing because you claim he said the sport is so clean nowadays. He never said that and the interview last night proved that.

 

[blackcat]

martin won the u23 race in switerland, the tour, with the highest finishing ascent in espoir racing.

espoir racing, by and large, does not have hc or cat 1 finishing climbs.

pro races with loads of resources do.


can anyone put 1+1 together.

espoir racing ergo, NOT fro the grimpeur.

think there might be an u23 tour of Colombia tho. Jacob? can you answer this?

 

[GreasyMonkey]

No one seems to be able to answer the simple question, why are clean(supposedly) riders beating dopers?

Perhaps because the dopers have had to dial it back, significantly, and those of lesser talent are now falling back into the pack?

 

[Ferminal]

martin won the u23 race in switerland, the tour, with the highest finishing ascent in espoir racing.

espoir racing, by and large, does not have hc or cat 1 finishing climbs.

pro races with loads of resources do.


can anyone put 1+1 together.

espoir racing ergo, NOT fro the grimpeur.

think there might be an u23 tour of Colombia tho. Jacob? can you answer this?

Most years Aosta is pure mountain stages. Not a lot of room to race in the valley so they are going up/down either side every day. I think it only recently became an u23 only race.

And Girobio route last year had two MTFs harder than any during that race in France in July. End result was that the two most impressive u23s were pure climbers.

 

[blackcat]

Most years Aosta is pure mountain stages. Not a lot of room to race in the valley so they are going up/down either side every day. I think it only recently became an u23 only race.

And Girobio route last year had two MTFs harder than any during that race in France in July. End result was that the two most impressive u23s were pure climbers.

http://www.cyclingarchives.com/ritfiche.php?ritid=88451

Giro Bio now. But that was not on when I was following in the mid00's to about 09.

Baby Giro went on hiatus from about 2003.

there was a hilly espoirs race in spain, that the costa rican guy who won the prologue of the l;Avenir one year. Was on Caisse. Forgot his name.

Portuguese rui costa would have animated it.

i am not long following cycling.

i just come to the clinic and fly the flag for The Clinic 12, and be a Betsy groupie, and just troll jonny vee. its all good.

 

[blackcat]

Most years Aosta is pure mountain stages. Not a lot of room to race in the valley so they are going up/down either side every day. I think it only recently became an u23 only race.

And Girobio route last year had two MTFs harder than any during that race in France in July. End result was that the two most impressive u23s were pure climbers.

yeah, Aosta is the Spanish u23 vuelta equiv right Fermie?

 

[Michele]

Aosta is in Italy.

 

[armchairclimber]

I did hear him on off the ball and Joe fumbled the doping question.

But how does he beat the dopers?

This is an easy one to answer. He is a better rider without dope than the dopers are with it. The dopers wouldn't even be in the same holiday park without their juice.

 

[Benotti69]

This is an easy one to answer. He is a better rider without dope than the dopers are with it.

Better rider without dope than riders who dope? How does that work?

So this years GT winner is going to be Dan Martin, the rider who can beat the dopers!

Wow!

 

[JimmyFingers]

That would be a good trick since he's not a GT GC rider.....yet at least.

Maybe next year though

 

[Catwhoorg]

Better rider without dope than riders who dope? How does that work?

Simple. If I took copious amounts of EPO, blood bags and steroids. I'd still not be half the rider Dan is.

A doped donkey can be beaten by a true racehorse.

But you know this and are just being deliberately obtuse.

 

[Benotti69]

Simple. If I took copious amounts of EPO, blood bags and steroids. I'd still not be half the rider Dan is.

We are not talking about Martin racing against forum members, thanks anyway.

A doped donkey can be beaten by a true racehorse.

But you know this and are just being deliberately obtuse.

So Armstrong was not the doped donkey everyone feels he was and his results prior to 1998 showed.

Contador just a doped donkey?

All the doped donkeys that won LBL, how did they ever get into the sport?

 

[Dear Wiggo]

This definitely needs to go here.

BINGO. Just because I believe things are going well right now, doesn't mean i think it's going to stick, if we don't see some big improvements in the structure of anti-doping and the resources at its disposal. Big improvements.

So with very few resources since 2008, doping has continued to decline to the point where any clean rider can win any race in 2013.

The battle has been won.

But if large resources are not devoted to the anti-doping effort, now, all this good work will go to waste. It won't "stick" or last.

I hope someone with a scientific mind can help me understand the logic that supports this premise, because surely I am missing it.

 

[hrotha]

Hmm? It's a pretty simple concept.

It's an arms race, doping vs antidoping. The biological passport was a very significant step forward for antidoping. But if the pressure isn't kept up, doping learns to circumvent it. Not just merely learn to avoid being caught, mind you (dopers have always done that), but actually learning to improve the performance boost despite the passport. Like how people in the early 00s were getting more of a performance boost than people on less sophisticated programs before EPO was detected.

You think of doping in static terms. It's not static by any means.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Hmm? It's a pretty simple concept.

Really?

You think of doping in static terms. It's not static by any means.

Really? I think of doping in static terms. What gives you this idea?

Ferrari beat the subcutaneous-enabled EPO long-term half life test by getting the riders to inject the EPO intravenously, a LONG time ago. Very shortly after the EPO test was introduced.

Micro dosing has been around for a LONG time.

New drugs are constantly coming onto the market.

A clean team is dominating the multi-stage racing season.

The passport has been implemented since 2008 - now in its 6th year. And you agree with JV that unless something is done soon, it will be circumvented.

6 years after it was implemented.

Not counting the additional year(s) JV had with the ACE precursor.

Please. Explain to me how 5 years is not enough time to circumvent the ABP, but another 12 months will make ALL the difference in dopers triumphing.

This is not logic. It's fantasy.

 

[hrotha]

Really?

Yes, really. You're entitled to disagree, but you can't claim no one has explained it.

Please. Explain to me how 5 years is not enough time to circumvent the ABP, but another 12 months will make ALL the difference in dopers triumphing.

Nice strawman. No one said this.

I did say this, which you chose to ignore:

Not just merely learn to avoid being caught, mind you (dopers have always done that), but actually learning to improve the performance boost despite the passport. Like how people in the early 00s were getting more of a performance boost than people on less sophisticated programs before EPO was detected.

 

[Benotti69]

Thoma Frei was telling us how easy it was to micro dope epo a few years ago.

Blood testing down. Some riders were not tested for months. Biopassport is not working to catch doping, if anything it being used as a money maker for UCI.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Yes, really. You're entitled to disagree, but you can't claim no one has explained it.

Nice strawman. No one said this.

I did say this, which you chose to ignore:

Not just merely learn to avoid being caught, mind you (dopers have always done that), but actually learning to improve the performance boost despite the passport. Like how people in the early 00s were getting more of a performance boost than people on less sophisticated programs before EPO was detected.

I'm not ignoring it. You're saying the same thing as what JV is implying:

BINGO. Just because I believe things are going well right now, doesn't mean i think it's going to stick, if we don't see some big improvements in the structure of anti-doping and the resources at its disposal. Big improvements.

Basically you are saying this:

1. the ABP is working, it has not been thwarted (5 years. Fact)
2. if we don't increase funding, the ABP will be thwarted. (I suggested 12 months)

So because I suggested 12 months, you call it a strawman. This is not a strawman. You and JV are both saying some time in the future, the ABP may be thwarted, implying it is not now.

So when? If not 12 months?

And why not already? <---- this is my belief. It has already been thwarted.

Given the accepted human limit seems to be 6W/kg, how on earth are people going to have better performances without going over this magical, JV-approved limit?

 

[hrotha]

Actually I also believe it's been thwarted. Some time around 2010-2011, in my opinion, largely through the use of weight loss drugs and other non-blood-related doping methods (possibly including gene doping). I'm just arguing that JV's position is internally consistent and logical, which is something some people are denying.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Actually I also believe it's been thwarted. Some time around 2010-2011, in my opinion, largely through the use of weight loss drugs and other non-blood-related doping methods (possibly including gene doping). I'm just arguing that JV's position is internally consistent and logical, which is something some people are denying.

And I am arguing it is illogical to believe the ABP CAN be thwarted, but hasn't been (which is how I see JV's position).

 

[Von Mises]

Thoma Frei was telling us how easy it was to micro dope epo a few years ago.

Yeah, and what happened to Thomas Frei?

 

[More Strides than Rides]

And I am arguing it is illogical to believe the ABP CAN be thwarted, but hasn't been (which is how I see JV's position).

Its very possible that the ABP has been thwarted by some, but is still working well working to control doping. May not have been JV's thought, but my response at least (and its a debate what kind of success rate qualifies 'working well'. 100%? 50%, 1%?)

 

[Benotti69]

Yeah, and what happened to Thomas Frei?

Frei admitted to being stupid.

 

[IndianCyclist]

I'm not ignoring it. You're saying the same thing as what JV is implying:



Basically you are saying this:

1. the ABP is working, it has not been thwarted (5 years. Fact)
2. if we don't increase funding, the ABP will be thwarted. (I suggested 12 months)

So because I suggested 12 months, you call it a strawman. This is not a strawman. You and JV are both saying some time in the future, the ABP may be thwarted, implying it is not now.

So when? If not 12 months?

And why not already? <---- this is my belief. It has already been thwarted.

Given the accepted human limit seems to be 6W/kg, how on earth are people going to have better performances without going over this magical, JV-approved limit?

While i am not a medical person, what i understand of the ABP is that just like the 50% Hematocrit limit, the ABP is also 4-5 blood parameters with logical limits based on past history of the athlete. This makes it easier to detect blood manipulation. However it can still be done with the help of a doctor whose job is to maintain the blood parameters within the prescribed limits. With organized team doping reduced & the team doctors also reluctant, it is more the individual who decides to dope and who is able to afford the services of a good doctor like Ferrari. There are enough variation in normal values to hide sophisticated blood manipulation.