Paris - Roubaix 2021 (03.10)

[Poursuivant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444058525571944448

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/LukeRowe1990/status/1444058525571944448

 

[Poursuivant]

The GFS forecast is absolutely terrible predicting the worst PR in many years:

Total rainfall in the area before and during the race is calculated to be 40-70 mm (and temperature 9-10 degrees). Carnage. However, the strongest rain band will be concentrated mostly in north-western France so a slight variation of the weather system trajectory may significantly reduce the actual rainfall.

Honest question, will the weather protocol combined with the parcours see any changes?

 

[Amazinmets87]

If this race gets cancelled or even has the parcours altered after nearly 3 years...

 

[greyclouds]

I have an idea: if there are sections of cobbles underwater, set the course to go straight through the fields to bypass those sections. It'll be a 250 km race that combines pavé, normal roads and cross.

Because if the cobbles are underwater, the fields would be dry?..

 

[Amazinmets87]

I don't care if they have to swim into the velodrome at this point.

 

[jaylew]

I'm excited by the prospect of a wet Roubaix but I'm also dreading it.
Just hoping for none of the big favorites to miss out because of mechanicals or crashes but that's probably wishful thinking.

^^^^^QS
****MVDP, WVA
***Stuyven
**Colbrelli, Sagan, Van Baarle, Politt, Kristoff, Valgren, Pedersen,
*Kung, Philipsen, Mohoric, Trentin

 

[RedheadDane]

You might as well go lie down in the mud, just to get a real feel about what it's like.

I'm guessing this was the crash that caused Riesebeek to be unable to start.

 

[Volderke]

You might as well go lie down in the mud, just to get a real feel about what it's like.

I'm guessing this was the crash that caused Riesebeek to be unable to start.

Don't know if that's the crash, but the muddy rider is Senne Leysen.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Honest question, will the weather protocol combined with the parcours see any changes?

I don't know. Hopefully the course will be unaffected.

 

[Extinction]

In the past, when it rained, the race was always held (even before helmets were manditory). I thus think some perspective is needed. Cycling is inherently dangerous and it will always be that way. In fact, the sport would probably never be re-invented today with the West's obssession over safety concerns, which have touched upon nearly every aspect of life and become a main legislative focus with a good impetus from the business of litigation. As there's always profit to be made from one's misfortune and there's always someone else or somthing else to blame because "saftey" protocals were neglected.

Sure it's obligatory that road furniture is well-indicated, buffered or padded that race officials on motorcycles stay out of the racers' way that dangerous curves are well-marked, etc. to provide the most favorable conditions for rider safety. But ultimately it's the riders themselves who are accountable for how they race and when it rains one simply must ride with greater prudence. That's the solution, not cancelling the event. Weather protocal cancellations should be applied only in most severe cases of tempests or snow storms and only with great moderation.

 

[Breezy1985]

You might as well go lie down in the mud, just to get a real feel about what it's like.

I'm guessing this was the crash that caused Riesebeek to be unable to start.

Its like swimming in a cold sea. Just dip your whole body in right away and get it over with

 

[Salvarani]

In the past, when it rained, the race was always held (even before helmets were manditory). I thus think some perspective is needed. Cycling is inherently dangerous and it will always be that way. In fact, the sport would probably never be re-invented today with the West's obssesion over safety concerns, which have touched upon nearly every aspect of life and become a main legislative focus with a good impetus from the business of litigation. As there's always profit to be made from one's misfortune and there's always someone else or somthing to blame because "saftey" protocals were neglected.

Sure it's obligatory that road furniture is well-indicated, buffered or padded that race officials on motorcycles stay out of the racers' way that dangerous curves are well-marked, etc. to provide the most favorable conditions for rider safety. But ultimately it's the riders themselves who are accountable for how they race and when it rains one simply must ride with greater prudence. That's the solution, not cancelling the event. Weather protocal cancellations should be applied only in most severe cases of tempests or snow storms and only with great moderation.

100% this.

 

[Strawberry_Jams]

I don't know. Hopefully the course will be unaffected.

I'm pretty sure a couple of years ago it rained in the build up and they removed one section because it was too muddy...

 

[Rackham]

In the past, when it rained, the race was always held (even before helmets were manditory). I thus think some perspective is needed. Cycling is inherently dangerous and it will always be that way. In fact, the sport would probably never be re-invented today with the West's obssesion over safety concerns, which have touched upon nearly every aspect of life and become a main legislative focus with a good impetus from the business of litigation. As there's always profit to be made from one's misfortune and there's always someone else or somthing to blame because "saftey" protocals were neglected.

Sure it's obligatory that road furniture is well-indicated, buffered or padded that race officials on motorcycles stay out of the racers' way that dangerous curves are well-marked, etc. to provide the most favorable conditions for rider safety. But ultimately it's the riders themselves who are accountable for how they race and when it rains one simply must ride with greater prudence. That's the solution, not cancelling the event. Weather protocal cancellations should be applied only in most severe cases of tempests or snow storms and only with great moderation.

Good post.

The same conversations happen in Formula 1 now as well, i.e. where wet weather races are cancelled due to safety concerns... when the drivers in the old days had a perfect solution: drive slower.

 

[Salvarani]

I'm excited by the prospect of a wet Roubaix but I'm also dreading it.
Just hoping for none of the big favorites to miss out because of mechanicals or crashes but that's probably wishful thinking.

That is always gonna happen in this race and something that makes the race so hard. No matter what the weather is like.

 

[Bonimenier]

Good post.

The same conversations happen in Formula 1 now as well, i.e. where wet weather races are cancelled due to safety concerns... when the drivers in the old days had a perfect solution: drive slower.

Not really comparable to Formula 1. The problem in Formula 1 is that a couple of years ago the cars got wider and faster, and also the tyres got way wider. This causes a lot more spray than before when the road is wet. Combine this with the drivers sitting lower to the ground nowadays it's impossible for the drivers to see anything anymore.

 

[yaco]

There will be an almighty battle to get into the break if it's rainy - Conditions could be treacherous, so being out front could get one or two deep into the final.

 

[Faserr]

Perhaps there will be no break at all.

 

[Amazinmets87]

Based on the women's race conditions don't seem too bad. More rain predicted overnight though.

 

[gerundium]

Based on the women's race conditions don't seem too bad. More rain predicted overnight though.

Rain front expected to hit after the women finish. Tomorrow will be far more treacherous than today. What i saw today, tomorrow will be absolute carnage. This isn't an issue of experience of the women, it's just real dangerous.

I expect mass tumbles for the men as well, if you shoot off the crown you have a decent chance to crash and everyone behind is in trouble as well.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Rain front expected to hit after the women finish. Tomorrow will be far more treacherous than today. What i saw today, tomorrow will be absolute carnage. This isn't an issue of experience of the women, it's just real dangerous.

I expect mass tumbles for the men as well, if you shoot off the crown you have a decent chance to crash and everyone behind is in trouble as well.

Keep in mind the espoirs were crashing every two minutes at the Worlds and then the elite race wasn't defined by crashes at all - experience matters and the women had basically zero. Of course, this is a difficult time for the men to be having a wet Roubaix with lots of debutants due to the last edition being 2.5 years ago and it being the first wet Roubaix for the entire peloton, but it isn't inherently more dangerous than all the previous wet editions and generally I'd expect the men's peloton to hold up better than the women's due to the difference in experience anyway. Of course there will be crashes but that's normal for Roubaix.

 

[gerundium]

Keep in mind the espoirs were crashing every two minutes at the Worlds and then the elite race wasn't defined by crashes at all - experience matters and the women had basically zero. Of course, this is a difficult time for the men to be having a wet Roubaix with lots of debutants due to the last edition being 2.5 years ago and it being the first wet Roubaix for the entire peloton, but it isn't inherently more dangerous than all the previous wet editions and generally I'd expect the men's peloton to hold up better than the women's due to the difference in experience anyway. Of course there will be crashes but that's normal for Roubaix.

Sure, experience will help a lot. And the men should hold up better, but conditions will be a lot worse than today. But over the last 20 years the racing has changed a lot, and even 20 years ago there were a lot of crashes already. I feel that in todays racing world chance of crashes has increased.

Edit: i am not arguing to cancel it, surely not. I have rooted for a rainy Roubaix for years but what i've seen today i feel like i should rescind that hope. I fear for the riders tomorrow and hope everone stays in one piece.

 

[F_Cance]

might be a good idea to remove the muddiest sector

 

[Netserk]

might be a good idea to remove the muddiest sector

No. It might be a good idea to ride them carefully with some space to the rider in front of you.

 

[Salvarani]

Stybar top 3 tomorrow