Peter Sagan discussion thread.

[Koronin]

[mod hat on]

Stay on topic please.

[mod hat off]

Sagan: can win anything unless the field rides against him. Add Valverde to the mix, and Sagan can somewhat fly under the radar. Danger.

Nibali, yes, is the best all-around rider, he's aggressive and will go for broke. Watch out. QS may find a way to screw it up and not podium. Alaf, Bardet, Martin? They can win.

But to me, in this mess and so many pretenders like in PR, Sagan won't be the focus, therefore he can win.

I'm not watching the start list, just got back from a 16 hour work day. After three of those. But if all participate, this will be a dog fight.

I don’t know if you’re right about the peloton marking Sagan but they absolutely should. Repeated short climbs are where Sagan thrives. On another note, how did Sagan go from a non-starter last year to this year’s pre-race favourite?

What kind of weird logic is this?

The same way Froome will be the favourite for the Giro this year, I presume. Or the same way Valverde will be the favourite for a number of races in the autumn. Or the same way Nibali will be an outsider next Sunday in Liège.

Riders change their calendars from year to year and good riders will obviously be favourites in the new races they choose to target as long as they suit them...

My point was that I found it weird that Sagan wasn’t at all interested in the race last year but now he could win it. I think he’s a significant favourite at this point. Also, GTs are not remotely similiar to classics. GT routes change significantly from year to year whereas the classics routes stay largely the same.

He skipped the opening weekend and now extends the spring season one week, so compared to last year he has been racing for the same amount of weeks (six).

He wants his downtime before California which is why he usually stops after Roubaix. Last year he very unsuccessfully participated in the Rund um den Finanzplatz or whatever its name is, which proved that he didn't like racing between Roubaix and California (perhaps he had a hangover from a party thrown by Boonen the day before, though).

Another reason explaining his participation could be that he has an eye on the WorldTour ranking which he leads comfortably at the moment.

If Valverde gets a good finish at Amstel along with another Ardennes double the WT points rankings will be very tight.

 

[tobydawq]

True, and Valverde probably has more possibilities to score many points in the remainder of the season. But Sagan can also get somewhere between some and a lot of points in California, Suisse, TdF, Binckbank Tour and the Canadian races. His problem is that of these races, it's only the Canadian and Binckbank he can win outright.

If Valverde podiums the Tour and Vuelta, Suisse, the Ardennes double, CSS and Lombardia, he will be unstoppable.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

True, and Valverde probably has more possibilities to score many points in the remainder of the season. But Sagan can also get somewhere between some and a lot of points in California, Suisse, TdF, Binckbank Tour and the Canadian races. His problem is that of these races, it's only the Canadian and Binckbank he can win outright.

If Valverde podiums the Tour and Vuelta, Suisse, the Ardennes double, CSS and Lombardia, he will be unstoppable.

Don't forget the Worlds where he's likely to podium even if he doesn't actually win it. The other thing is Valverde will go after stage points in races as well. He's the one GC rider that is know for points hunting during races. Top 10 at least in Grand Tours give WT points and it's highly likely that he'll be in the top 10 GC of both the Tour and Vuelta along with a a good chance of a podium in at least 1 of the two.

 

[Durden93]

Re:

True, and Valverde probably has more possibilities to score many points in the remainder of the season. But Sagan can also get somewhere between some and a lot of points in California, Suisse, TdF, Binckbank Tour and the Canadian races. His problem is that of these races, it's only the Canadian and Binckbank he can win outright.

If Valverde podiums the Tour and Vuelta, Suisse, the Ardennes double, CSS and Lombardia, he will be unstoppable.

That's a lot to ask for given that Valverde has never podiumed the TDF and Vuelta in the same year and never won Il Lombardia

 

[Blanco]

If Valverde stays healthy all season, Sagan won't win World Tour.

Oh, and I do think he really cares about this race, cause he prolonged his spring season specially for it. I don't think that's because he wants to help his teammates.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

True, and Valverde probably has more possibilities to score many points in the remainder of the season. But Sagan can also get somewhere between some and a lot of points in California, Suisse, TdF, Binckbank Tour and the Canadian races. His problem is that of these races, it's only the Canadian and Binckbank he can win outright.

If Valverde podiums the Tour and Vuelta, Suisse, the Ardennes double, CSS and Lombardia, he will be unstoppable.

Don't forget the Worlds where he's likely to podium even if he doesn't actually win it. The other thing is Valverde will go after stage points in races as well. He's the one GC rider that is know for points hunting during races. Top 10 at least in Grand Tours give WT points and it's highly likely that he'll be in the top 10 GC of both the Tour and Vuelta along with a a good chance of a podium in at least 1 of the two.

The Worlds are not on the WorldTour.

 

[Koronin]

If Valverde wins the Ardennes double that's 900 points. It's also very possible he can finish higher at Amstel than Sagan depending on how the race plays out. It is highly unlikely Sagan leaves Amstel with 900 or more point lead over Valverde. It much more likely that Valverde wins both Fleche Wallone and Liege. If that is what happens Valverde has the points lead at the end of the Ardennes.

 

[El Pistolero]

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

True, and Valverde probably has more possibilities to score many points in the remainder of the season. But Sagan can also get somewhere between some and a lot of points in California, Suisse, TdF, Binckbank Tour and the Canadian races. His problem is that of these races, it's only the Canadian and Binckbank he can win outright.

If Valverde podiums the Tour and Vuelta, Suisse, the Ardennes double, CSS and Lombardia, he will be unstoppable.

Don't forget the Worlds where he's likely to podium even if he doesn't actually win it. The other thing is Valverde will go after stage points in races as well. He's the one GC rider that is know for points hunting during races. Top 10 at least in Grand Tours give WT points and it's highly likely that he'll be in the top 10 GC of both the Tour and Vuelta along with a a good chance of a podium in at least 1 of the two.

The Worlds are not on the WorldTour.

For some reason I thought there were WT points for the Worlds.

 

[Lance Armstrong]

Re:

If Valverde stays healthy all season, Sagan won't win World Tour.

Oh, and I do think he really cares about this race, cause he prolonged his spring season specially for it. I don't think that's because he wants to help his teammates.

Technically he doesn't prolongs it. This year his spring season began later and ends later. His coach said they planned to peak at Paris-Roubaix so he is probably still in a decent shape.

 

[Jancouver]

Re:

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

Exactly! Nobody cares about some WT ranking ...

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

Exactly! Nobody cares about some WT ranking ...

Except that the riders do when they are in contention in the latter part of the season (not enough to go the Guangxi race, granted).

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

Exactly! Nobody cares about some WT ranking ...

Yes they do. Watch Il Lombardia from the past few years. There have been many cases where riders targeted minor placings rather than the win. I don't think Sagan is the type of rider who cares for it, though.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

Exactly! Nobody cares about some WT ranking ...

Except that the riders do when they are in contention in the latter part of the season (not enough to go the Guangxi race, granted).

Except for Valverde who is very proud of his 4 WT points title. (Well two under the old Pro Tour and 2 under the current World Tour). He actually does chase it, hence the reason some riders have made comments in the past about the fact that he points hunts at different times.

Now it wouldn't shock me if Sagan doesn't care that much.

 

[tobydawq]

Sagan did care two years ago when he won it. Van Avermaet cared very much last year when he won it. And Valverde is often chasing it.

 

[Jancouver]

Re: Re:

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

Exactly! Nobody cares about some WT ranking ...

Except that the riders do when they are in contention in the latter part of the season (not enough to go the Guangxi race, granted).

Used to be when the teams/riders needed the points for the WT license. Now there’s no competition for the license so maybe the top two guys care a little but IMO Sagan doesn’t give a damn.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

What are the chances of Sagan riding Liege next week?

IMO he should do Liege just to see and learn (while supporting his team) if he can be competitive and target this race one day.

Now that he’s won pretty much all there is to win in the 75kg+ weight division, it’d be great to see him try for some of the lumpier races. I still believe there isn’t a race on the calendar that he can’t win, if he has the focus and drive to go for it.

I really doubt Sagan would be able to beat Valverde and Alaphilippe with so much racing in his legs. Maybe if he peaked for it he could but I doubt it.

I guess I was thinking more future years than this year. I don’t think there’s any way Sagan can win Liege 2018, but if he’s 2-3kg lighter this time next year...

It’d be interesting to see him at least try LBL next week to see how far he’d get, but I can’t see him fitting it into the schedule.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

What are the chances of Sagan riding Liege next week?

IMO he should do Liege just to see and learn (while supporting his team) if he can be competitive and target this race one day.

Now that he’s won pretty much all there is to win in the 75kg+ weight division, it’d be great to see him try for some of the lumpier races. I still believe there isn’t a race on the calendar that he can’t win, if he has the focus and drive to go for it.

I really doubt Sagan would be able to beat Valverde and Alaphilippe with so much racing in his legs. Maybe if he peaked for it he could but I doubt it.

I guess I was thinking more future years than this year. I don’t think there’s any way Sagan can win Liege 2018, but if he’s 2-3kg lighter this time next year...

It’d be interesting to see him at least try LBL next week to see how far he’d get, but I can’t see him fitting it into the schedule.

I think he needs to be closer to 10kg lighter to contest LBL.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

What are the chances of Sagan riding Liege next week?

IMO he should do Liege just to see and learn (while supporting his team) if he can be competitive and target this race one day.

Now that he’s won pretty much all there is to win in the 75kg+ weight division, it’d be great to see him try for some of the lumpier races. I still believe there isn’t a race on the calendar that he can’t win, if he has the focus and drive to go for it.

I really doubt Sagan would be able to beat Valverde and Alaphilippe with so much racing in his legs. Maybe if he peaked for it he could but I doubt it.

I guess I was thinking more future years than this year. I don’t think there’s any way Sagan can win Liege 2018, but if he’s 2-3kg lighter this time next year...

It’d be interesting to see him at least try LBL next week to see how far he’d get, but I can’t see him fitting it into the schedule.

I think he needs to be closer to 10kg lighter to contest LBL.

Matthews was fourth last year, Sagan is better than Matthews in just about everything. With how passive LBL is ridden nowadays Sagan would win 7 times in a row.

 

[SKSemtex]

Well, according yesterday interwiew, no LBL in near future. His heart beats for RVV and PR.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

What are the chances of Sagan riding Liege next week?

IMO he should do Liege just to see and learn (while supporting his team) if he can be competitive and target this race one day.

Now that he’s won pretty much all there is to win in the 75kg+ weight division, it’d be great to see him try for some of the lumpier races. I still believe there isn’t a race on the calendar that he can’t win, if he has the focus and drive to go for it.

I really doubt Sagan would be able to beat Valverde and Alaphilippe with so much racing in his legs. Maybe if he peaked for it he could but I doubt it.

I guess I was thinking more future years than this year. I don’t think there’s any way Sagan can win Liege 2018, but if he’s 2-3kg lighter this time next year...

It’d be interesting to see him at least try LBL next week to see how far he’d get, but I can’t see him fitting it into the schedule.

I think he needs to be closer to 10kg lighter to contest LBL.

Matthews was fourth last year, Sagan is better than Matthews in just about everything. With how passive LBL is ridden nowadays Sagan would win 7 times in a row.[/quote]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[tobydawq]

Well, according yesterday interwiew, no LBL in near future. His heart beats for RVV and PR.

Was that a Slovak TV interview? Otherwise, could you post a link, since I can't find it anywhere?

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

This is the Sagan thread...

Sagan is riding AGR because he wants to win that race, not because he wants to win the WT.

Exactly! Nobody cares about some WT ranking ...

unless they win it of course :lol:

 

[krakenKE]

Well, according yesterday interwiew, no LBL in near future. His heart beats for RVV and PR.

Was that a Slovak TV interview? Otherwise, could you post a link, since I can't find it anywhere?

Would love to see that too.

 

[Dr. Watson]

Well, according yesterday interwiew, no LBL in near future. His heart beats for RVV and PR.

Was that a Slovak TV interview? Otherwise, could you post a link, since I can't find it anywhere?

Would love to see that too.

Its from yesterdays press conference, talking about it around 9 minute mark
https://www.facebook.com/Borahansgroheofficial/videos/1844589698938535/