3/10.
The lowest I ever rated a GT (but I didn't rate al GT's the last couple of years). From recent tours only the 2009 one had a worse course (but better final week).
The first few days are good enough.
Starting with a ITT (or prologue) is how it should be. Then a flat stage with the possibility of echelon forming. It remains to be seen how hard (and if!!) the wind will blow. In the 3rd stage of the 2010 Giro, the wind created havoc in this area. A few weeks later, in the first stage of the tour, nothing happened.
The combination of a hilly stage follwed by cobbles in the first week has proven its value recently. Finish on the mur de Huy is a cheap solution, though. I expect the usual final uphill sprint, although the côte de Ben-Ahin seems to be included a dozen of km before the finish. They could have designed something more innovative in that area.
The stage to Cambrai, long and with a decent amount of cobbles in the final, seems to be the best stage on paper. Extra thumbs up for the newly found sector to Carnières.
Next are three stages designed for the sprinters, with again possibilities of strong crosswinds to Le Havre. The cliffs of Étretat will provide for some beautiful scenery, in any case.
The stage to Mur de Bretagne will be another uphill sprint finish, with all relevant action packed in the last few km (barring crashes, of course). And the first week will be concluded with a TTT. I don't like TTT's that much, and it's even worse when they are placed that late in the race. It's against the UCI rules (not that ASO bothers what these rules say, they are mightier than those ****s in Aigle), and might disfavor teams who may have lost some riders along the way in the first week, it takes the place from a real ITT, and given the strenght of topteams, it won't create big gaps if it's only 28km long. A TTT at this time, with this course, is a travesty.
The first rest day, is followed by a vuelta special to Arette Pierre-Saint-Martin. On itself, it's an acceptable first mountain stage, but I have the feeling the finish town could be approached better.
The second pyrenees stage features the perennial Tourmalet in cobination with the long false flat uphill drag to Cauterets. While the Giro has proven that a difficult climb followed by an easier one could provide fireworks, I fear that the 11km valley between the end of the Tourmalet descent and the foot of Cauterets will paralyze any relevant GC action. This stage will be a procession amongst the favorites. I think Marie-Blanque + Aubisque (+Spandelles) + Cauterets would be way better.
The final pyrenees stage goes to Le Plateau de Beille. On itself, that's a very good climb. The major problem is that it is quite isolated from other climbs, it will always be preceded by a lot of valley, and thus making long range attacks by favorites (or even outsiders) highly unlikely. From this point of view it isn't that bad that there aren't more decent climbs (Menté, Latrape, Agnes).
The stage to Rodez leaves me indifferent. It can be flat or very hilly, but at this point of the race, even a quick succesion of a lot of hills probably won't cause too much GC action.
Next is the "modern classic" to Mende. They'll climb the Côte de la Croix Neuve probably from the nothwest once again, which is a shame. The southeastern side is much easier to link with other climbs before. But, no matter which climbs they use before the finish, it probably will come down to another uphill sprint.
The trip through the Massif Central seems to be followed by two flat stages (no mention of climbs in the final to Gap, or I have missed it).
The second rest day is followed by the Alps. The first stage is a tribute to Bernard Thévenet, with a finish in Pra Loup. I have to admit I quite like the Allos-Pra Loup sequence. I know, col de la Cayolle is way more difficult than the south side of Allos, but the descent from Allos to the foot of Pra Loup is more tricky, steeper and shorter than the descent of the Cayolle. Since Pra Loup itself isn't that difficult or long, maybe one of the favorites (why not Nibali himself?) might try something in said descent. Still I think an extra climb (Col de Champs) would have made this stage great instead of good. The likeliness of some action is, in my opinion, even more increased because the next stage is a huge let down. The south side of the Glandon with 40km to go and a 3km hill (although on a spectacular road) with 10km to go won't entice the favorites to significant action.
The penultimate mountain stage, once again with a MTF is a recycled version of the 2nd Alpine stage in 2012. While that stage saw some interesting action and created big time gaps, it was completely suffocated by the pace team sky set. Still I think this can be considered the queen stage. The fact that it's only 138km long is very telling...
The final decisive stage is a very short stage with the classic MTF to l'Alpe d'Huez, and again a recycled version of a recent tour stage. The very same stage was very entertaining in 2011, but I don't think we'll get the same amount of action next year. One can only hope, though.
And then the usual parade to the Champs Elysées. Oh well...
positive:
varied first week, stage to la Toussuire
offers some possibilities:
Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne, Pra Loup
maybe exciting, depending on the exact course:
Rodez, Mende, Gap
Negative:
only one (short!!) TT, TTT, abundance of MTF's not preceded by decent climbs, lack of hard mountain stage(s) with a descent finish, lack of early medium mountain stage (like this year), same finish locations over and over again.