Question Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

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Apparently TJV shared Roglic power numbers during the tour, including his TT.




Conclusion from Thijs Zonneveld:
  1. Roglic was strong all tour, as strong as he's ever been. Consistent level.
  2. Roglic did a strong TT, except for the last 1,5k where he basically gave up.
  3. He estimates Pogacars TT performance to be between 6,1 and 6,5 w/kg for an hour. Which is crazy strong, the performance of the tour and possibly of the decade.
Well we now have more information. Roglic didn't completely capitulate in the TT. still pushing 6 W/kg on the Planche and 5.7 W/kg over pretty much an hour.

For Pogacar to take the time he did the article estimates based on this data (and dumoulins, which is not published) that Pogacar had to have been pushing 6.1 to 6.5 over the entire TT.

That probably means close to the 7 W/kg barrier on the planche.

I don't believe anymore that even a double blood bag could lead to a huge boost like this.
 
Sep 17, 2012
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Well we now have more information. Roglic didn't completely capitulate in the TT. still pushing 6 W/kg on the Planche and 5.7 W/kg over pretty much an hour.

For Pogacar to take the time he did the article estimates based on this data (and dumoulins, which is not published) that Pogacar had to have been pushing 6.1 to 6.5 over the entire TT.

That probably means close to the 7 W/kg barrier on the planche.

I don't believe anymore that even a double blood bag could lead to a huge boost like this.
https://www.ad.nl/tour-de-france/hoe-primoz-roglic-de-tour-kon-verliezen~a6436400/
 
Well we now have more information. Roglic didn't completely capitulate in the TT. still pushing 6 W/kg on the Planche and 5.7 W/kg over pretty much an hour.

For Pogacar to take the time he did the article estimates based on this data (and dumoulins, which is not published) that Pogacar had to have been pushing 6.1 to 6.5 over the entire TT.

That probably means close to the 7 W/kg barrier on the planche.

I don't believe anymore that even a double blood bag could lead to a huge boost like this.

Why would it be 7 W/kg on the Planche? I have my doubts that Roglic is also so aerodynamically superior going uphill at 20 km/h on a road bike.
 
Ok, so 3 Slovenes in the top 4 of LBL. Quite remarkable for a country with a population of 2m.
It is a statistical peculiarity that raises my suspicions as well. Sometimes of course there are hotspots in sports because there are more scouts in one place, better youth structures, a sport is extremely popular... but I can't see any of these explanations here.
But I don't know enough about cycling in Slovenia.
 
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I fear some of Pantani's climbing records will be genuinely threatened soon, and not just by Pogačar. Can't wait for the explanations for it.

I have seen this sort of thing over and over again on this forum. Predictions that records and times will be beaten. And when these Pantani times aren't beaten in the next few years, will you promise to start a thread titled "I 46x16ss am an idiot"? And then we can use that thread discuss how people who desperately want doping in the sport make predictions that never materialise, because this has been going on for a decade now.
 
I have seen this sort of thing over and over again on this forum. Predictions that records and times will be beaten. And when these Pantani times aren't beaten in the next few years, will you promise to start a thread titled "I 46x16ss am an idiot"? And then we can use that thread discuss how people who desperately want doping in the sport make predictions that never materialise, because this has been going on for a decade now.
You DO know that Dumoulin is second only to Pantani on a number of climbs after his 2017 Giro d'italia efforts right? He's just one example.

Believe it or not, I actually DON'T want to be right, and this belief that accepting doping occurs somehow makes you less of a fan is an overly simplistic view.
 
Why would it be 7 W/kg on the Planche? I have my doubts that Roglic is also so aerodynamically superior going uphill at 20 km/h on a road bike.
roglic pushed 5.7 on the entire TT and 6.05 on the planche. so around 0.35 w/kg higher on the planche than the TT average. the article states an estimated average watts of Pogacar between 6.1 and 6.5. if we take a same distribution as an assumption and the middle of the range i end up with a 6.3 w/kg average on the TT and around 6.65 W/kg average on the planche.

It's a rather simple approach but gives some indication of the watts pushed by Pog, and you are right 7 w/kg was a bit too high when i did the mental math quickly in my head.
 
roglic pushed 5.7 on the entire TT and 6.05 on the planche. so around 0.35 w/kg higher on the planche than the TT average. the article states an estimated average watts of Pogacar between 6.1 and 6.5. if we take a same distribution as an assumption and the middle of the range i end up with a 6.3 w/kg average on the TT and around 6.65 W/kg average on the planche.

It's a rather simple approach but gives some indication of the watts pushed by Pog, and you are right 7 w/kg was a bit too high when i did the mental math quickly in my head.
I don't think you can extrapolate from one rider's W/kg like that in a TT. Aerodynamics is such an important factor, especially on the flatter parts. But also even on the climb when its 20km/h+.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pog averaged similar w/kg to Roglic over the whole course; around 5.7. His position looked so much more locked in and smooth compared with both Roglic and Dumoulin.
 
It's also an ITT wattage, which is lower due to the aero position. Its much lower altitude and Roglic' estimate for the ITT is lower than Col de la Loze at the end of a stage after doing Madeleine. 6.1-6.5 is *** absurd.
 
I don't think you can extrapolate from one rider's W/kg like that in a TT. Aerodynamics is such an important factor, especially on the flatter parts. But also even on the climb when its 20km/h+.

I wouldn't be surprised if Pog averaged similar w/kg to Roglic over the whole course; around 5.7. His position looked so much more locked in and smooth compared with both Roglic and Dumoulin.
Exactly...its not all about raw power, there's efficiency and power transfer to factor in. For some reason, Roglic, usually super smooth and efficient, visually at least just fell apart in this regard on that last climb.
He couldn't even transfer his helmet efficiently onto his head...
 
It is a moot point in this case for Pogacar because he made most of the time in the steep climb. Sounds like excuses for him. If there is an smoking gun based on power or performance this is it.
Nonsense. There is no smoking gun based on power for Pogacar, because we've got no idea of what his power was. You can't just extrapolate and guess his power in a TT from Roglic's data.

All we know is that he narrowly beat Aru's climbing time on the final climb. While wearing a skin suit and aero helmet and with a bike in a particularly aggressive position.

Is his climbing time a smoking gun? Possibly, but trying to imply you can work out even rough w/kg for his ride is just nonsense.
 
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You DO know that Dumoulin is second only to Pantani on a number of climbs after his 2017 Giro d'italia efforts right? He's just one example.

Believe it or not, I actually DON'T want to be right, and this belief that accepting doping occurs somehow makes you less of a fan is an overly simplistic view.
I think you are also being overly simplistic. Of course doping occurs but exaggeration doesn't help. Nobody is close to Pantani's climbing level. When I read someone riding Alpe D'Huez at sub 39 minutes you will have my attention. Pantani did sub 37 minutes - twice and that was confirmed. Alpe times in the TdF are a good benchmark because everyone is on top form.

I agree with DFA and BB, Pogacar on Planche looked very strong to the eye and compared to Roglic was pushing an optimal gear. Roglic looked to be riding too small a gear. LRP also looked stronger on the bike than Roglic.
 
The tour didnt go up Alpe d'Huez.

But it did go up Col de Marie Blanque, Col de Peyresourde and Grand Colombier, and new records were set.

Ok, merely looking at climb times decontextualises them, but nevertheless those records were beating the ones set by uber-dopers like Vino.
I wasn't referring to this year. Am referring to the claim they are climbing faster than Pantani's day. If they are then can someone please share evidence rather than than make unsubstantiated claims? I quoted Alpe because that is a good benchmark. Did Pantani climb Col de Marie Blanque, Col de Peyresourde and Grand Colombier? If so, was it timed and from the same start and stop points? That is the only way to substantiate the claim.
 
Nonsense. There is no smoking gun based on power for Pogacar, because we've got no idea of what his power was. You can't just extrapolate and guess his power in a TT from Roglic's data.

All we know is that he narrowly beat Aru's climbing time on the final climb. While wearing a skin suit and aero helmet and with a bike in a particularly aggressive position.

Is his climbing time a smoking gun? Possibly, but trying to imply you can work out even rough w/kg for his ride is just nonsense.
For a climb it is very easy. It is not rocket science. I have done it many times. The problem is for a flat section because in depends so much on position and frontal area drag.
I am just very busy now but the ranges given are close enough. Because this is a steep climb. It is not nonsense. If you continue to believe so we agree to disagree. Ok.
 
For a climb it is very easy. It is not rocket science. I have done it many times. The problem is for a flat section because in depends so much on position and frontal area drag.
I am just very busy now but the ranges given are close enough. Because this is a steep climb. It is not nonsense. If you continue to believe so we agree to disagree. Ok.
While, 'steep' is subjective, but what's important is that frontal drag still matters at 22km/h average speed. Aero helmet, skin suit and bike set up can all make significant differences, even at the speeds he did the climb on. Without knowing his power data, it's all just guesswork how much more efficient he was than his competitors.
 

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