- Jun 7, 2010
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luckyboy said:
Nibali has a 5th in Romandie as the best stage result pre-Tour this year
Pretty sure that makes him a second-tier rider.
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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Well if Nibali is doping now he must have been doping in the 2013 Giro too. He is 29 so getting into his optimal age as a GC rider. So however strong he was last season he logically should be a little stronger now. With AC and Froome gone the remaining competition is not very strong so a 7 minute lead is no surprise to me.
Plus riders peak for races. The TdF was Nibali's key objective this year. Dauphine and Romandie were just training. Then he's had an altitude camp since Dauphine. It is logical he is much stronger now than earlier in the season.
If AC and Froome were still in the race I think Nibs would still have at least 60 sec lead from the cobbled stage. He does not look like he has ridden to his limit with the remaining competition. Maybe this is the thing that makes his performance most suspicious?
Plus riders peak for races. The TdF was Nibali's key objective this year. Dauphine and Romandie were just training. Then he's had an altitude camp since Dauphine. It is logical he is much stronger now than earlier in the season.
If AC and Froome were still in the race I think Nibs would still have at least 60 sec lead from the cobbled stage. He does not look like he has ridden to his limit with the remaining competition. Maybe this is the thing that makes his performance most suspicious?
- Feb 10, 2010
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luckyboy said:
It's unfair to call them second tier riders even if Nibali has more power at any given race.
- Feb 10, 2010
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Cookster15 said:
http://veloclinic.tumblr.com/post/92742793478/stage-18-2014-tour-de-france-preliminary-performance
He's put on a show with an enormous display of power. Meanwhile, other GC contenders come in pretty sane. Even Valverde!
http://veloclinic.tumblr.com/post/92744402538/preliminary-comparison-2014-vs-2013-tour-de-france
If I'm reading that graphs from the last link right, a 2013 Sky would have soundly beaten him this year.
- Aug 11, 2012
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luckyboy said:
Exactly!!! Some folks are making him out to be unstoppable, and this amazing rider. He's been lucky throughout this tour so far IMO. All the big names are either gone, or haven't entered. So, he's been able to take advantage of it. I really think(and still say) had Cadel rode the tour, he'd probably be leading it right now. I'll give him some credit, he's been able to fend off people, but hasn't had any real challengers so far. If Contador and the gang were still in there, I think it'd be a different race.
- Aug 31, 2012
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- Aug 11, 2012
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SeriousSam said:
How/why is it ridiculous? taking into account that all the other serious threats to win are now gone, say Cadel rode it....don't you think he'd have a pretty good chance of winning? You're basing this on what Cadel did last year or the year before...not taking into account that the top guys are all out right now, THIS year. That would've given him a good chance of winning IMO, and even against Nibali, who's only winning because of what I said above IMO.
86TDFWinner said:
And how do you think Wiggins would be doing?
I ask partly out of jest, but also because I'm genuinely interested in your opinion.
Benotti69 said:
Out of interest, what's realistic? Imagine there must be some interesting studies out there on this?
- Jul 30, 2009
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jens_attacks said:do keep in mind that in 1994 and in 1996, there wasn't a single climb on the routejust hautacam
i think lance in 2000 just with hautacam on the route could have beaten bjarne or very close. just like nibali would have went around 36 minutes today.
unfortunately, these days, aso, at libertine seguro's orders
I wish there was a LIKE button on this forum
- Sep 2, 2011
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86TDFWinner said:
Evans was destroyed by Nibali in the 2013 Giro.
It's beyond me how he could stand a chance against him now that he's older and clearly declining.
@Benotti: interesting comparison. Taking Netserk remark into account, what kind of improvement should be realistically expected? Does that suggest he wasn't a doper in 2008 or that he just stepped up his game?
- May 26, 2010
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faraday said:
http://sportsscientists.com/
Hard to know what is realistic with an athlete who has such a past with so many enablers of doping.
- Jul 30, 2009
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broken chain said:
I thought he made an effort at looking tired today. Even so he still looks like he just gave it 95% at the Wobbly Wheelers 10.
the race behind him is massive fun though - best Tour for entertainment since 2007 for me
- Apr 30, 2011
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SafeBet said:
Full throttle team-wide doping program in 2007, passport slows him from 2008 onwards (which is why he was faster on Zonc in '07 than both '10 and '11), joins Astana and goes from a good program to a top notch program. Probably doped since junior (certainly wouldn't surprise me, then again maybe he first started when he got pro).
- May 5, 2011
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You people, riding your bikes 5 hours a week just can't handle that someone out there is better than you without doping can you?
- Aug 11, 2012
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faraday said:
Probably have as good a chance of winning as cadel had he rode too....same thing.
- Jul 1, 2011
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Netserk said:
That's such a prosaically depressing summary of a career and sport. I'd like to think it's lazy cynicism, but maybe that just makes me a naive fool.
One thing for sure, if Conti and Froome had stayed upright this might have been the most entertaining tour for a while.
- Aug 11, 2012
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SafeBet said:
Froome/Contador and a few others would probably be demolishing Nibali now if they were still in the race, what's your point?
My point was/is, that Cadel could've have also had a chance to win, had he been in it. never said he'd 100% surely win, but that he'd have a chance to win it, as much of a chance as Nibali did at the start. We'll never know though will we? Just because one rider gets crushed in a different race, doesn't mean he gets crushed in every race. Just my opinion of course.
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