114th Paris-Roubaix - UCI World Tour (10/4-2016)

[yaco]

I suspect the main favourites will be heavily marked
I also suspect there will be unusual suspects in the breaks

Could be a surprise result and don't rule out Boonen


O

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Sagan has better results in PR than Canc did at the same age. If they followed the same progression then Sagan would be expected to win PR this year at age 26 like Fab Canc did.

Did not know Sagan had already podium'ed Paris Roubaix I guess I missed that edition of the race where that happened

Sagan podiumed PR as junior if it counts.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

I suspect the main favourites will be heavily marked
I also suspect there will be unusual suspects in the breaks

Could be a surprise result and don't rule out Boonen


O

There are two non favorites that won't be allowed to go in a break no matter what: Boonen and Erviti.

 

[Keram]

Dont forget one important thing about Sagan. He had in 2014 best monument result at Roubaix. I dont count last year because of mechanical but in other two years when he rode he had better results at PR than Flanders. With this monster form he is huge favourite.

Also with his superior bike handling skills he has no disadvantage to called "cx specialists".

 

[TheRossSeaParty]

Boonen has always been better at PR than Flanders, and I imagine he will be there in the finale. Still have to look at Sagan, Cancellara as the top favorites. Either way, as long as there isn't a headwind it will be a great race!

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

I suspect the main favourites will be heavily marked
I also suspect there will be unusual suspects in the breaks

Could be a surprise result and don't rule out Boonen


O

There are two non favorites that won't be allowed to go in a break no matter what: Boonen and Erviti.

Boonen will be a favorite for Roubaix as long as he rides I agree on Erviti by the way...

 

[The Hegelian]

I would not be at all surprised to see Cancellera and Sagan ride way together. They are unambiguously the most in form of the best specialists.

How it might play from that scenario is a bit of a lottery, but reading my tea leaves I can't see anything that says:
a. Cancellera would definitely drop Sagan on the pave
or
b. Sagan would definitely lose a two-up sprint to Cance on the velodrome.

Luck always plays its part, but these two are surely equal 5 star faves.

 

[cellardoor]

Heart says Boonen. Head says Stybar :>

 

[SKSemtex]

***** Cance
**** Sep, Styby
*** Sagan, Boom (if rains)
* rest

Last PR for Cance so I expect epic ride (win or die mode). Group mre than 3 people in velodrome will be huge disappoitment for me.

 

[SafeBet]

***** Cance
**** Sep, Styby
*** Sagan, Boom (if rains)
* rest

Last PR for Cance so I expect epic ride (win or die mode). Group mre than 3 people in velodrome will be huge disappoitment for me.

I can't see that happening really. There's basically no team interested in a defensive race apart from Katusha.

 

[Laplaz]

***** Cancellara
**** Sagan, Vanmarcke, Stybar
*** Boom, Terpstra
** Rowe, Oss, Boonen
* Stannard, Benoot, Kristoff

 

[DFA123]

***** Cance
**** Sep, Styby
*** Sagan, Boom (if rains)
* rest

Last PR for Cance so I expect epic ride (win or die mode). Group mre than 3 people in velodrome will be huge disappoitment for me.

I can't see that happening really. There's basically no team interested in a defensive race apart from Katusha.

No headwind forecast either - should be a bit of a tailwind for most of the route. So a decent chance that the race will break up early.

 

[Billie]

Ofcourse the race will break up early. Boonen always makes sure there is full bagarre from far out in Roubaix.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Ofcourse the race will break up early. Boonen always makes sure there is full bagarre from far out in Roubaix.

It didn't for the last two years - there was still a big group coming into the last sector of pave. Because there was a reasonably strong headwind both times.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

I feel your pain! It should be a great race; let's just hope there's no more mechanicals or crashes. It's bad enough not to have GVA and Degenkolb already; that would have added even more variables to the mix.

I'm very disappointed Degenkolb is out. Seems like a good guy and could become a very, very good classics rider (in terms of wins, he already is in terms of ability). GVA I've never been a huge fan of but at least he seems to add something when he rides a race and is always a threat.

I'm also very disappointed Demare is out. He's a young monument winner and he has form in this from the Espoirs race. Hoping he can continue stepping up over the next couple of years.

 

[andysho]

While I do not think Sagan is the owerwhelming favourite, I do hope that he finds a way to win, because if he does not, he may win it 10 times in the future, but the internet will only remember "...but he never won it against Cancellara!"

 

[trucido]

Re: Re:

I feel your pain! It should be a great race; let's just hope there's no more mechanicals or crashes. It's bad enough not to have GVA and Degenkolb already; that would have added even more variables to the mix.

I'm very disappointed Degenkolb is out. Seems like a good guy and could become a very, very good classics rider (in terms of wins, he already is in terms of ability). GVA I've never been a huge fan of but at least he seems to add something when he rides a race and is always a threat.

I'm also very disappointed Demare is out. He's a young monument winner and he has form in this from the Espoirs race. Hoping he can continue stepping up over the next couple of years.

I also would like to see what Degenkolb can do when he is isolated.

Demare needs to prove he can win a big race without hanging onto the team car.

 

[pastronef]

Re:

heart says......early break to go.....the whole way

head says cance/sagan from a final selection of about fifteen......and

alas no quicksteppers in top ten

Mark L

I was wishing about that this morning, with Danny van Poppel as a member of the break

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

I feel your pain! It should be a great race; let's just hope there's no more mechanicals or crashes. It's bad enough not to have GVA and Degenkolb already; that would have added even more variables to the mix.

I'm very disappointed Degenkolb is out. Seems like a good guy and could become a very, very good classics rider (in terms of wins, he already is in terms of ability). GVA I've never been a huge fan of but at least he seems to add something when he rides a race and is always a threat.

I'm also very disappointed Demare is out. He's a young monument winner and he has form in this from the Espoirs race. Hoping he can continue stepping up over the next couple of years.

I also would like to see what Degenkolb can do when he is isolated.

Demare needs to prove he can win a big race without hanging onto the team car.

Yawn.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

I feel your pain! It should be a great race; let's just hope there's no more mechanicals or crashes. It's bad enough not to have GVA and Degenkolb already; that would have added even more variables to the mix.

I'm very disappointed Degenkolb is out. Seems like a good guy and could become a very, very good classics rider (in terms of wins, he already is in terms of ability). GVA I've never been a huge fan of but at least he seems to add something when he rides a race and is always a threat.

I'm also very disappointed Demare is out. He's a young monument winner and he has form in this from the Espoirs race. Hoping he can continue stepping up over the next couple of years.

I also would like to see what Degenkolb can do when he is isolated.

Demare needs to prove he can win a big race without hanging onto the team car.

He did, unless you don't count MSR as a big race.

 

[trucido]

Re: Re:

I feel your pain! It should be a great race; let's just hope there's no more mechanicals or crashes. It's bad enough not to have GVA and Degenkolb already; that would have added even more variables to the mix.

I'm very disappointed Degenkolb is out. Seems like a good guy and could become a very, very good classics rider (in terms of wins, he already is in terms of ability). GVA I've never been a huge fan of but at least he seems to add something when he rides a race and is always a threat.

I'm also very disappointed Demare is out. He's a young monument winner and he has form in this from the Espoirs race. Hoping he can continue stepping up over the next couple of years.

I also would like to see what Degenkolb can do when he is isolated.

Demare needs to prove he can win a big race without hanging onto the team car.

He did, unless you don't count MSR as a big race.

Where did I say he didn't win?

 

[Cannibal72]

Re: Re:

I feel your pain! It should be a great race; let's just hope there's no more mechanicals or crashes. It's bad enough not to have GVA and Degenkolb already; that would have added even more variables to the mix.

I'm very disappointed Degenkolb is out. Seems like a good guy and could become a very, very good classics rider (in terms of wins, he already is in terms of ability). GVA I've never been a huge fan of but at least he seems to add something when he rides a race and is always a threat.

I'm also very disappointed Demare is out. He's a young monument winner and he has form in this from the Espoirs race. Hoping he can continue stepping up over the next couple of years.

I also would like to see what Degenkolb can do when he is isolated.

Demare needs to prove he can win a big race without hanging onto the team car.

He did, unless you don't count MSR as a big race.

Where did I say he didn't win?

The point I was making is that the evidence now seems to have fallen pretty clearly in Demare's favour (that is, he won 'without hanging onto the team car'): see http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/ or the MSR How The Race Was Won.

On topic: I'd have loved to have seen what Benoot could have done in this race. He doesn't seem perfectly suited for it, but he's a real talent nonetheless.

With regard to the defensiveness of the race, I don't think that over-strong teams will be a problem, but the fact that most of the teams are pretty weak could fall both ways. We could see carnage as no one controls the race, but we could see the favourites looking at each other to make the first move and just see a gradual race of attrition. I don't think that will happen, though; Boom and Vanmarcke will want to make it into the velodrome alone, and surely Cance and Tommeke will try and light up the race.

 

[trucido]

Re: Re:

The point I was making is that the evidence now seems to have fallen pretty clearly in Demare's favour (that is, he won 'without hanging onto the team car'): see http://inrng.com/2016/03/demare-cipressa-conspiracy-theories/ or the MSR How The Race Was Won.

On topic: I'd have loved to have seen what Benoot could have done in this race. He doesn't seem perfectly suited for it, but he's a real talent nonetheless.

With regard to the defensiveness of the race, I don't think that over-strong teams will be a problem, but the fact that most of the teams are pretty weak could fall both ways. We could see carnage as no one controls the race, but we could see the favourites looking at each other to make the first move and just see a gradual race of attrition. I don't think that will happen, though; Boom and Vanmarcke will want to make it into the velodrome alone, and surely Cance and Tommeke will try and light up the race.

Thanks for linking that article, I hadn't read it before. It doesn't state the evidence falls clearly in his favour, it just says that this form is cheating is generally accepted in professional cycling, and can't conclude whether Demare is guilty or not.

Anyway back on topic, I hope there isn't a massive headwind towards the finale.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1. Cancellara
2. Vanmarcke
3. Sagan
4. Boonen
5. Stybar
6. Terpstra
7. Stannard
8. Boom
9. Kristoff
10. Martin

Why isn't Stijn Vandenbergh riding? He's currently the strongest Ettix rider.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

wasn't he ill or something

edit: no, pain in the bum, literally, he can't sit