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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Nomad

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movingtarget said:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...e/news-story/d24c4a8fb02d91dcac92f596cd2668f1
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Wow!...I can't believe it; the treating physicians actually came to the conclusion that it was the vaccine that was the cause. It's usually the same old "it's just a coincidence" and "correlation doesn't equal causation" and so forth.

I can't help but laugh when the 74 yr said he's "still grateful to have received the vaccine." I hope he has a full recovery because his entire body looks like a mess from the adverse reaction.
 
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Nomad

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"T cells induced by COVID-19 infection respond to new virus variants: U.S. study:"


"Our data, as well as the results from other groups, shows that the T cell response to COVID-19 in individuals infected with the initial viral variants appears to fully recognize the major new variants identified in the UK, South Africa and Brazil," said Andrew Redd of the NIAID and Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine who led the study."
 
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djpbaltimore

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WA state has been showing about 1k cases a day for the last 2 months. That makes about 60k cases for the ~6 million that weren't vaccinated. That is about 1% incidence. The paper mentions the vaccinated incidence as about 0.01%. That is not a perfect comparison as most of the vaccinated have not been immune since beginning of February, but it does suggest the protection is probably in the ballpark of 90% as the study I posted yesterday showed.

2 people who got the vaccine still died. Both were over 80 and that is a notoriously hard group to vaccinate effectively. One of the noteworthy findings from the adolescent study was the sheer magnitude of their antibody titers, even compared to people in their 20s and 30s. A good proportion of the elderly and vulnerable can only be protected by herd immunity gained from vaccinating the youngest and healthiest people.
 
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Sciatic

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Oldermanish said:
I get my #2 dose the same day! Hydration is definitely in the game as I'm hoping for mild or no symptoms. I won't be doing work...at all. Good luck with yours.
Click to expand...
I didn’t know about the water thing until before my 2nd shot. I did hydrate well, and though I still had some flu symptoms, they weren’t any wor
Koronin said:
djpbaltimore, Thanks for the information. That helps to show how much the vaccine is helping to cut down on infections.

Also good information to know about the two deaths being people over 80. Sad, but significant information.
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djpbaltimore said:
WA state has been showing about 1k cases a day for the last 2 months. That makes about 60k cases for the ~6 million that weren't vaccinated. That is about 1% incidence. The paper mentions the vaccinated incidence as about 0.01%. That is not a perfect comparison as most of the vaccinated have not been immune since beginning of February, but it does suggest the protection is probably in the ballpark of 90% as the study I posted yesterday showed.

2 people who got the vaccine still died. Both were over 80 and that is a notoriously hard group to vaccinate effectively. One of the noteworthy findings from the adolescent study was the sheer magnitude of their antibody titers, even compared to people in their 20s and 30s. A good proportion of the elderly and vulnerable can only be protected by herd immunity gained from vaccinating the youngest and healthiest people.
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We could get a better picture of the situation if there was a study testing a large random subset of vaccinated folks so we could really see what % of breakthrough cases there are. That group of 100 who got COVID had enough symptoms or some other reason (travel? Other medical issue?) to get tested. It’s likely than more than those 100 individuals got infected, but did not have symptoms or simply didn’t bother to get tested if they did. I’m not at all doubting the efficacy of the vaccine, I just would like data to be accurate.
 
Tricycle Rider

Tricycle Rider

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Koronin said:
Good news for Canada. It appears that they will be able to receive more doses from Pfizer as they are continuing to ramp up the amount of vaccine available to ship.


Brief update on my husband. Along with the other issues he's still dealing with he does have some Covid long haul issues (although those don't seem to be that bad). About a week after he got the vaccine those appear to be starting to get better. It also appears there was an interaction between his Rheumatoid Arthritis medication (non biological) and the vaccine, although nothing worse than the side effects of the vaccine some people have reported.
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Good to hear things are looking up for your husband, and good luck with your (and I think Oldermanish's) second dose I think you guys are getting today, if memory serves correctly.

Four days later after my first doze I'm still feeling a bit snotty - had a congested and foggy head starting a couple of days ago, and felt really pooped out. My bad arm is always sore anyway, so can't really say whether the vaccine had caused anything in that department. I really had no choice but to rest as I was feeling pretty tired, but things seem to be feeling a bit better today.

In other news in my area the kids are going back to school on a hybrid schedule this week, this means I will have to pay attention to school busses and school speed zones again. Rats! I know the kids and their parents must just be happy and feeling elated, but I kinda liked not having to deal with all the extra traffic. :D
 
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Idaho has opened vaccination to everyone 45 and older, and 16 and older (with cond). Plus it looks like next Monday it will be everyone 16 and older, no restrictions. Somehow Idaho was able to bring in a large amount of vax in March, and get a lot of needles into arms. We'll see how next week goes, but I have the feeling that by mid April we will be done with people who want to get it. The full antivaxxers will obviously never get it (we have plenty of those), the "I don't need one", and the "I'll wait" groups... who knows.
 
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djpbaltimore

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Sciatic said:
I didn’t know about the water thing until before my 2nd shot. I did hydrate well, and though I still had some flu symptoms, they weren’t any wor


We could get a better picture of the situation if there was a study testing a large random subset of vaccinated folks so we could really see what % of breakthrough cases there are. That group of 100 who got COVID had enough symptoms or some other reason (travel? Other medical issue?) to get tested. It’s likely than more than those 100 individuals got infected, but did not have symptoms or simply didn’t bother to get tested if they did. I’m not at all doubting the efficacy of the vaccine, I just would like data to be accurate.
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That is almost certainly true. Vaccines typically do not work by preventing infection entirely (i.e. sterilizing immunity). They are most effective at limiting the infection to the point where you do not develop disease (i.e. symptoms). In a nutshell, that is one of the big hurdles to a successful HIV vaccine. The only thing that may be effective is a vaccine that develops sterilizing immunity.

As I noted, I still had to get a mandatory test for work even after getting my second dose, so there are a variety of reasons for getting a test post vaccine, including travel as you noted.

The most robust study of the kind you are suggesting (although not random people) was released this week by the CDC. It necessitates people to be regularly swabbed after vaccination, so it requires a lot of resources. Also, Israel's R is at about 0.5 with over half their population vaccinated, showing more real world virus suppression.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1376552681255399424
View: https://twitter.com/CDCgov/status/1376552681255399424
 
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Koronin

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Tricycle Rider said:
Well, you know the drill - rest and drink lots of fluids!

I do apologize for my earlier Gatorade comments, btw., but these are some very trying times. So keep yourself hydrated with whatever works! (Though, I would prefer you stuck to water.)
Click to expand...

Well I need to be ok enough to drive to a city in the opposite direction of today that is also about 45 minutes away to finish doing 2 stores my manager couldn't get to this week because she was getting sick.

I took a water bottle I put ice in and then filled with water with me today. Normally I don't do that, but figured better be on the safe side.
 
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Oldermanish said:
I get my #2 dose the same day! Hydration is definitely in the game as I'm hoping for mild or no symptoms. I won't be doing work...at all. Good luck with yours.
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#2 is good so far; just a little low pulse response which is a good excuse to do nothing. I'm flirting with a cocktail because of some "body aches" but still hydrating. My spousal Boss is eligible but scheduling is still challenging as Washington State is opening vaccines for everyone. That's good and challenging at the same time.
 
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Koronin

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For those wanting to know about side effects after the second dose, about 10 and a half hours after the shot I have ended with chills. That started about 45 minutes ago and I still have them.

From reports Moderna (which is the one I got) people are more likely to have side effects from than Pfizer or J&J and women are also more likely to have side effects than men. Although it appears no matter which vaccine and if you are male or female over 50% of everyone appears to get some sort of side effects from the second dose.
 
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Koronin

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Here's a little more information on the 6 month info from Pfizer about the immune response of it's vaccine:
New data from Pfizer-BioNTech reveals that the vaccine is up to 91 percent effective for fully vaccinated people for up to six months after the vaccine was administered. The company also revealed that the vaccine is also effective against the COVID-19 variant from South Africa. Here’s what you need to know about the vaccine’s efficacy, what it means for long-term authorization of the vaccine, and whether or not we’ll need booster vaccines down the line.

There's other information in the article as well.

 
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djpbaltimore

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movingtarget said:
www.theguardian.com

US may be in early stages of fourth wave as Covid cases rise, reports say

US has tallied on average 63,000 new cases daily over the past week while only five states have seen declines in new infections
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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I think that a country-wide wave is less likely if we keep vaccinating 3-4 million people a day. But numbers are clearly going up in Michigan due to the variants. Case numbers in Maryland started rising in early March when the Governor removed a lot of restrictions on dining and now hospitalizations are also increasing. There will continue to be local outbreaks over the next few months and places with vaccine hesitancy will be hit the worst. Even after the complete takedown of Berenson's misinformation was published yesterday, Tucker Carlson had him his show last night to talk about vaccines. The pathway out of the pandemic is obvious, will we take it is another question.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377599636995723268
View: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1377599636995723268
 
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jmdirt

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djpbaltimore said:
I think that a country-wide wave is less likely if we keep vaccinating 3-4 million people a day. But numbers are clearly going up in Michigan due to the variants. Case numbers in Maryland started rising in early March when the Governor removed a lot of restrictions on dining and now hospitalizations are also increasing. There will continue to be local outbreaks over the next few months and places with vaccine hesitancy will be hit the worst. Even after the complete takedown of Berenson's misinformation was published yesterday, Tucker Carlson had him his show last night to talk about vaccines. The pathway out of the pandemic is obvious, will we take it is another question.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377599636995723268
View: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1377599636995723268
Click to expand...
Alex isn't wrong in the pure sense, he is just a straight up liar.
 
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